Press Conference

[BearFan PHX]

25 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Agree with everything you said. Its why I say if the reality was he had 3 QB's that graded similarly (and if your organizational philosophy was - hey we realize there is some element of uncertainty no matter what) - than I would be pretty supportive of moving down from 1-3 and take whichever guy is there.  Now if when you look at it - you have 3 guys, 1 grades out extremely high, the other two are just high, than given it is QB, I say take the extremely high one since you have a lot of conviction there (but it better be real conviction).

No matter what they do - even if the entire process is right - the reality is there is inherent uncertainty/luck that is a part of this whole equation.  

I agree with all of this too. Since there is luck involved, if you have Trubisky and Mahomes rated similarly, you let the one that falls to you be your pick You need to really have conviction to trade up, and with Trubisky how could they have with the limited sample size?

We tend to think these professionals have some secret sauce that we are missing, and to be sure they have TONS of data we dont have, but in the end, that data doesnt seem to be cutting through the fog. Wouldnt it be refreshing for them to admit that it is unknowable and value where to pick a position on that from a tier of players?

Or maybe it makes sense, in addition to your regular addressing of QBs with high picks when the position is open, to also take a flyer on a 6th or 7th round QB every other year? Or every year?

I'm still wondering what Bagent can do too.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Moore, Wright, Stevenson and this years #1 and the 2025 pick is a serious haul. It's the kind of thing that builds rosters.

But this league is all about QBs. Not that there are dominant GOATs easily found. But if you knew you had Joe Montana, or Tom Brady, or Payton Manning, they would easily be worth more than 3 firsts. Youd pay almost anything to get one. And they'd be worth the price.

Now maybe hes saying that Stroud isnt one of those QBs, and probably he;d be right. But given that Stroud did what he did in his first year, no one can say for sure that he isn't. And it's not like you could see it coming either. Every rookie QB is a gamble, and almost none will be a GOAT.

So while it's an easy thing to list all those good impact players, I think it's a little disingenuous. To be fair to Poles, there hasnt been a QB in years that fits the mold Im talking about, and Im surely not saying I know that Stroud is one. But until you find a QB like that, every team has to be looking for one, and if you find one you believe in, the price almost doesnt matter.

He made that trade before Stroud played the season well and wasn't considered to play that well. Easy to look back, not that easy looking forward.

[BearFan PHX]

10 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

He made that trade before Stroud played the season well and wasn't considered to play that well. Easy to look back, not that easy looking forward.

read again where I said "And it's not like you could see it coming either."

Also Poles' statement was made now when we all have hindsight including Poles making the statement. For example, he includes the #1 overall pick this year, also not knowable last year. This is Poles this year, talking about what we now know.

And my point was about the quarterback position in general, you dont have to protect Poles' feelings from me. I think it's just best for you not to comment on my posts since you seem to misunderstand them constantly.

[jason]

10 hours ago, TravD said:

If he get's Caleb Williams, that was a hell of a Deal.  He knows what he is looking at going into the draft. If he doesn't he messed up hard on Stroud and Williams.  He failed with Stroud and Williams if he doesn't go that way. I was watching a thing earlier, someone asked Polian back in the day what it would take to get Manning after he got him. He said more than 10 1st rounders. Hitting on a QB covers up so many positions, and having one like Fields you have to invest into so many positions to cover him up. 

I argue he did not fail with Stroud. No way he could have selected another QB last year. 

[Mongo3451]

20 minutes ago, jason said:

I argue he did not fail with Stroud. No way he could have selected another QB last year. 

Agreed.  For one, Justin had NO chance turning the tear down.  This was the year of Justin.  Plus, the OL and DL needed the attention it received.  I won't complain if we go QB this year.  My mind has made me trade down greedy though.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, OmahaBear said:

Did anyone else see that clip when they were asking about an OC.. and poles mentions being able sell their vision on what they would do with all 4 QBs.  Then someone asked him to clarify all 4 QB's and he kinda back tracked and said he didn't recall saying all 4. LOL. He either slipped or playing a master game of chess right there. 

Yeah I did see that.  I was watching Flus during that and noticed he was sweating profusely during that time and Poles was cool as a cucumber.  He's good.  

 

[Mongo3451]

45 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

He either slipped or playing a master game of chess right there. 

Chess vs checkers...?

Let me add, it was the same with the stadium talk from Warren.

Edited January 12 by Mongo3451

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, jason said:

I argue he did not fail with Stroud. No way he could have selected another QB last year. 

I completely agree. I think Poles did the right thing.

My comment was just that his answer now was a little slick because he is saying he'd rather have had a haul that includes this years number one, which he didnt know would be #1, and passing on Stroud which time may tell (in hindsight) was a miss. If he'd said it was the right decision at the time, Im 100% agreed. But if he'd known this would be a #1 pick, then hed have known Stroud would be this good too. ANd again, Im not even saying Stroud is gonna be great either. It was just a little slick, giving himself credit for something he couldnt have known, and a pass on something else he couldnt have known either.

But for example, every team that didnt draft Brady in the first 5 rounds could easily and rightly say "at the time, it was the right decision" who could argue that? Not even the Patriots who passed on him through 5 rounds. But to look back now and say "Im still happy with the 5th round pick I took back then rather than taking Brady" is a less sustainable statement.

But again, to be clear, I think Poles did exactly the right thing last year, I was just commenting on the statement being a little slick.

In general these discussion seem to feel like you love someone or you hate them, and iw as just injecting a tiny bit of nuance. Nothing important, and nothing that changes my opinion of Poles. Keeping Eberflus on the other hand, and what he does with Justin are different issues, but this statement? Just a little too slick - not even a 5 yard penalty tho.

But hypothetically, if in two years Stroud is the best QB in the league, then no one could say theyd rather have that haul including Moore etc. In that case, the right answer is the QB. Again, no one could know at the time, nor could they know the CAR pick would be the #1 pick either.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Agreed.  For one, Justin had NO chance turning the tear down.  This was the year of Justin.  Plus, the OL and DL needed the attention it received.  I won't complain if we go QB this year.  My mind has made me trade down greedy though.

for sure on keeping Justin last year - it would have been stupid not to. we needed to see who he was, how he could grow. you cant just walk away from that kind of athletic talent without at least seeing him with something around him. Now this year, thats a different story. But who is the right rookie? Who the heck knows. Maybe the best one this year will end up to be Mccarthy in the second round, or maybe its Williams at #1 etc. My crystal ball is entirely cloudy.

[BearFan PHX]

So far I think Poles has done an excellent job. He tore down the bloated roster. Took the heat for having an inept 2022 season, built a large part of the supporting roster out while maintaining discipline, not overspending or overreaching. All excellent.

But Poles is at an inflection point now. All of what he's done so far was reasonably obvious strategically, even as it required a deft hand in execution and choices. He did well. But now the big decisions come. Coaches and QB. he will be remembered for what he does going forward from here, more than for trading Roquan, or giving Fields last year to prove himself.

In my mind, he's already stumbled on the coaching decision. For sure it can be mitigated with successful coordinator hires. But up until the Eberflus decision, I would be giving Poles an A+. But all those things, difficult as they were, are small compared to this upcoming round of decisions.

Who will be the Bears Head Coach and Starting QB in 2025 and 2026? How many wins will we have in those seasons? The answers to those questions will be the yardstick by which Poles will be measured, and if he gets them right, the 2024 season will probably be bright and full of hope. But if he gets the wrong, he squanders everything else he's done.

So this is new territory for Poles. The training wheels are off, and the big tough decisions lie ahead. Who of us can say what Caleb Williams will be? I sure cant. No one can. But Poles will get a raise or be fired if he cant answer that (unanswerable!) question, and the related ones correctly.

To me, keeping Eberflus was the first mistake. So let's see how this goes from here. It's a lot of pressure, and to be fair, it's almost impossible to know what the rookies will be. But we kinda know who Fields is. If he gets the 5th year extension for example, that's would be a giant bet for Poles.

[adam]

Poles has mentioned it as a 3-yr plan. So he sort of backed himself into a corner now. 

One thing that may be sort of telling is the types of free agents he goes after this offseason and what their contracts look like.

There are currently 36 players under contract for 2024 that are part of the 53-man roster.  So they need 17 new players this offseason, including extensions.

 

If they plan to run it back with Fields, Poles knows his cap hit will increase in 2026, so he will have to account for that in every contract he offers. On the flip side, if he is planning on drafting a QB, he has some additional wiggle room for the life of any contract he would offer this offseason. Just something to follow.

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

Poles has mentioned it as a 3-yr plan. So he sort of backed himself into a corner now. 

One thing that may be sort of telling is the types of free agents he goes after this offseason and what their contracts look like.

There are currently 36 players under contract for 2024 that are part of the 53-man roster.  So they need 17 new players this offseason, including extensions.

 

If they plan to run it back with Fields, Poles knows his cap hit will increase in 2026, so he will have to account for that in every contract he offers. On the flip side, if he is planning on drafting a QB, he has some additional wiggle room for the life of any contract he would offer this offseason. Just something to follow.

 

 

and if he has to pay Justin, then he presumably traded the #1 pick down and got more high picks, so hed have more impact players on rookie deals at other positions to balance out some of the extra money to Fields? Is that a wash or how one sided is it?

[AZ54]

9 hours ago, OmahaBear said:

Did anyone else see that clip when they were asking about an OC.. and poles mentions being able sell their vision on what they would do with all 4 QBs.  Then someone asked him to clarify all 4 QB's and he kinda back tracked and said he didn't recall saying all 4. LOL. He either slipped or playing a master game of chess right there. 

A team typically carries 4 QBs in camp.   Might not be anything more than that.  

[jason]

20 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

for sure on keeping Justin last year - it would have been stupid not to. we needed to see who he was, how he could grow. you cant just walk away from that kind of athletic talent without at least seeing him with something around him. Now this year, thats a different story. But who is the right rookie? Who the heck knows. Maybe the best one this year will end up to be Mccarthy in the second round, or maybe its Williams at #1 etc. My crystal ball is entirely cloudy.

And that's kind of the point. Nobody has the clear crystal ball. Even Bill Polian said the draft is at best 50/50. That's why I'm a huge advocate of trading down just about every year. 

Before I say this, I know it's not technically how  the math works out, but...

If the success rate of a first round pick is 35%, and a second round pick is 20%, I'd rather go with two of the second round guys. The second round guys are less likely to turn into HoF players as some other number crunching has shown in the past, but a team full of 2nd round players is more likely a complete team compared to a team that has players littered from 1st through UDFA. 

[Mongo3451]

9 minutes ago, jason said:

If the success rate of a first round pick is 35%, and a second round pick is 20%, I'd rather go with two of the second round guys.

Foundationally speaking, this is good math and it's great for Texas hold em.  You'll go deeper in tournaments, but rarely win it, due to someone giving you a bad beat on the river.  That's where the difference makers come in.  I believe the base is built.  Time for difference makers.  If Poles can hit on QB, C and G in this draft, it is on!  WR and S and it's on and over!

[adam]

13 minutes ago, jason said:

And that's kind of the point. Nobody has the clear crystal ball. Even Bill Polian said the draft is at best 50/50. That's why I'm a huge advocate of trading down just about every year. 

Before I say this, I know it's not technically how  the math works out, but...

If the success rate of a first round pick is 35%, and a second round pick is 20%, I'd rather go with two of the second round guys. The second round guys are less likely to turn into HoF players as some other number crunching has shown in the past, but a team full of 2nd round players is more likely a complete team compared to a team that has players littered from 1st through UDFA. 

What's funny is if the 1st rounder is 35%, and the 2x 2nd rounders are both 20%, the odds of one of the two hitting is 36%. 

So there is something to that. Also, the percentage goes down by the actual pick, the round is sort of irrelevant, especially once comp picks get added.

[BearFan PHX]

19 minutes ago, jason said:

And that's kind of the point. Nobody has the clear crystal ball. Even Bill Polian said the draft is at best 50/50. That's why I'm a huge advocate of trading down just about every year. 

Before I say this, I know it's not technically how  the math works out, but...

If the success rate of a first round pick is 35%, and a second round pick is 20%, I'd rather go with two of the second round guys. The second round guys are less likely to turn into HoF players as some other number crunching has shown in the past, but a team full of 2nd round players is more likely a complete team compared to a team that has players littered from 1st through UDFA. 

Its a good point. I think you need a mix of both. As you build the roster you need a bunch of decent players, but then you also need those few difference makers.

At the beginning, trading down makes all the sense in the world. You have nothing, and bringing in a single blue chipper (if you can even get that right!) will just result in that blue chipper having no one around him to work with.

Later, as your depth fills out, you need those few difference makers, and even though the risk is great, eventually you need a QB who is one of the best in the league. Without that, it's almost impossible with the current rules to reliably contend for a Super Bowl Championship. You might luck into an appearance, like Lovie did, but even with Hesters 7 point handicap returning the opening kick for a TD, we still had no chance of beating Payton Manning through the rest of the 59 minutes.

I think we are getting near to the point where it's time to get that blue chip player. The Draft haul available by trading the #1 pick will be substantial. Maybe we will split the difference and just trade down a few spots and take a QB at #3 or #4 or something. Next year for sure we will be in blue chip territory, and if it's gonna be a QB, we can give him this year to learn.

But I definitely see the logic of what you're saying Jason, and I agree with you about building the lines too - it's kind of a related argument, and it makes sense.

But I also think at some point you need that world beating QB, and as difficult as that is to find with a top pick, it's even more difficult when youre stuck at 9-8 every year, too good to have a top pick, and too bad to actually contend?

 

12 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Foundationally speaking, this is good math and it's great for Texas hold em.  You'll go deeper in tournaments, but rarely win it, due to someone giving you a bad beat on the river.  That's where the difference makers come in.  I believe the base is built.  Time for difference makers.  If Poles can hit on QB, C and G in this draft, it is on!  WR and S and it's on and over!

this is what Im saying too, and as usual I needed too many more words to say the same thing LOL

[Alaskan Grizzly]

14 minutes ago, adam said:

What's funny is if the 1st rounder is 35%, and the 2x 2nd rounders are both 20%, the odds of one of the two hitting is 36%. 

So there is something to that. Also, the percentage goes down by the actual pick, the round is sort of irrelevant, especially once comp picks get added.

Unless you find a Brock Purdy or Tom Brady. 

[adam]

It is definitely a mix. With every new acquisition, the hope should be that they are an upgrade over the 53-man roster spot that they filling.

On offense, it looks like WR1, TE1, LT, LG, RT, and RB are not going to be addressed. They need to upgrade C, WR2, RG, TE2, and WR3. If their is a potential upgrade at QB, you have to consider it as well. Same goes for LT, if the draft or free agency presents you with that opportunity. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Unless you find a Brock Purdy or Tom Brady. 

well 3rd round eltie QBs are like 5%, and that means you hit one out of 20 times, so there is that one, you just cant count on it. So stats arent wrong because of the exceptions, they quantify the likelihood of finding exceptions.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

It is definitely a mix. With every new acquisition, the hope should be that they are an upgrade over the 53-man roster spot that they filling.

On offense, it looks like WR1, TE1, LT, LG, RT, and RB are not going to be addressed. They need to upgrade C, WR2, RG, TE2, and WR3. If their is a potential upgrade at QB, you have to consider it as well. Same goes for LT, if the draft or free agency presents you with that opportunity. 

We need to upgrade our worst position first center then whatever blue chip players are available at our picks. I think he gets a few done in Free agency and fills in with the draft. I think Davis will be fine next year,  other than last year, he has a history of above average play. He will bring in competition of course because Jenkins has a injury history.  

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think Davis will be fine next year,  other than last year, he has a history of above average play.

This is my hope too.  But, between him and Jenkins you can count on games missed.  I even noticed when Davis went out Whitehair came in instead of Carter, who played that throughout Davis' absence.  That tells me OG should be a high priority draft as well as center.

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

This is my hope too.  But, between him and Jenkins you can count on games missed.  I even noticed when Davis went out Whitehair came in instead of Carter, who played that throughout Davis' absence.  That tells me OG should be a high priority draft as well as center.

I agree, free agency or maybe a 3rd rounder could go to OG, after OC and FS are addressed, and not including the 2 first rounders for QB and WR.

And that OG could be a developmental player, someone who needs a year. They will be the "Swing guard" it wouldnt hurt if they had some center experience too in case our OC solution gets injured. But hopefully you'd take someone who could challenge Davis for starting time. get those three players competing for two spots and the odd man out is injury duty, which seems likely given our two guards.

Id also like to see us pick up a TE2, and some help on the DL. Thats probably in free agency, and possibly lower in the draft. Id expect our last couple picks to be developmental guys on the OL or DL too.

If we dont take a QB or WR with the first two picks, or trade down and gain extra picks and player(s) then all bets are off of course.

[jason]

6 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Unless you find a Brock Purdy or Tom Brady. 

That’s just a bonus. If you can find studs later than the second round then it’s the cherry on top.

[AZ54]

On 1/12/2024 at 8:08 PM, Mongo3451 said:

This is my hope too.  But, between him and Jenkins you can count on games missed.  I even noticed when Davis went out Whitehair came in instead of Carter, who played that throughout Davis' absence.  That tells me OG should be a high priority draft as well as center.

Makes sense for active roster on game day Whitehair has more position versatility and can backup all 3 interior spots.  Maybe Carter was active too in that last game and didn't get the nod?  Nah, just found it, he was inactive.   

I like the idea of getting a good OG prospect in the pipeline in this draft and I like Zak  Zinter out of Mich.  He had a badly broken leg late in the season, both tibia and fibula so his recovery is going to take a full year.  Teams that need help this season will have to go elsewhere in the draft so he will drop.  If the long term prognosis is good then we have insurance with Davis to hold down the fort until he's ready, even if that means a full season on IR.  But we could have a stud at RG in 2025.   If we get a comp pick #100 for Ian Cunningham leaving, then Zinter is my target there.  

Bears inactives

• WR Darnell Mooney
• RB D'Onta Foreman
• DB Greg Stroman Jr.
• OL Ja'Tyre Carter
• QB Tyson Bagent
• DB Quindell Johnson
• DB Jaylon Johnson