Which Rookie QB should we draft to replace Fields?

[BearFan PHX]

OK. The Fields thread is killing me. This thread is for the rookie QBs.
If your argument is that we should keep Fields, that's cool, but this thread isn't for that scenario.

The rules of this game are that you have to take a QB with pick #1,
OR you can trade down to #2 and take any QB except for Williams
OR you can trade down to #3 and take any QB except for Williams or Maye
OR you can trade the #1 pick away for a fortune, but then you have to take a QB with pick #9 and it can't be Williams, Maye, Daniels or Penix

This is also a good thread to just talk about whatever you do or don't like about any of the rookie QBs, even if you don't choose to make a pick.

And participation in this thread doesn't mean that there aren't better draft strategies that people prefer.  You could still prefer to keep Fields and also play this game for fun.
But this thread is just to talk about the rookie QBs!

[adam]

Just based on what I know right now, I would go with Caleb Williams. He has the most untrainable traits. From all accounts, looks like a natural thrower of the football. It comes easy to him, and it doesn't look forced or robotic. He has played with some bad O-Line play which he will see a lot of in the NFL. If you are pulling the trigger on a QB, you have to get your guy. There is no way to ensure you can get your guy after #1. So even if it is not Williams, there is no way you can trade down and hope to get whatever QB you really want. The position is too important to risk an extra pick for, then miss out on the guy entirely.

For the other QBs, I think Maye is a sort of Mac Jones/Trubisky hybrid, taking the good of those two and making one QB. He has the highest floor of the group, maybe him and Bo Nix.

Daniels has the production, but the frame scares me. He reminds me of Teddy Bridgewater. I guess that is a good thing because Teddy has had a solid career, but I don't think anyone would be drafting a young Teddy Bridgewater in any of the first few rounds. Besides Williams, Daniels may have the highest ceiling. If he can add some bulk to his frame without losing too much in terms of speed, he is a really exciting prospect. 

Penix has looked really good and looks like the most NFL-ready QB, but two things that have always scared me about the transition from college to the NFL is age and the size/speed guys. For age, once you hit 23 and are still in college, you are playing against 18 yr old kids that are 5 years younger than you. If that is the reason you are performing well in college, that is gone in the NFL. The problem is you won't know until it's too late. For the athletic freak guys who have always been bigger or faster than their opponents at every level finally meet their match at the NFL level. Outside of 2-3 guys in the NFL at any given time, you lose that edge, which is what made them look better or perform better than others in college. Shaheen catching TDs over guys a foot shorter than him. Velus running past dudes like they are standing still. 

[Mongo3451]

If I knew I could trade the number one and keep number two, I would line to get Drake Maye here.  I've been touting him for months.  The Trubisky/Jones analogy is terrible, due to him having superior traits to both of those combined.  Try Josh Allen and Justin Herbert for comps.  Dude has a cannon and is athletic.

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

Just based on what I know right now, I would go with Caleb Williams. He has the most untrainable traits. From all accounts, looks like a natural thrower of the football. It comes easy to him, and it doesn't look forced or robotic. He has played with some bad O-Line play which he will see a lot of in the NFL. If you are pulling the trigger on a QB, you have to get your guy. There is no way to ensure you can get your guy after #1. So even if it is not Williams, there is no way you can trade down and hope to get whatever QB you really want. The position is too important to risk an extra pick for, then miss out on the guy entirely.

For the other QBs, I think Maye is a sort of Mac Jones/Trubisky hybrid, taking the good of those two and making one QB. He has the highest floor of the group, maybe him and Bo Nix.

Daniels has the production, but the frame scares me. He reminds me of Teddy Bridgewater. I guess that is a good thing because Teddy has had a solid career, but I don't think anyone would be drafting a young Teddy Bridgewater in any of the first few rounds. Besides Williams, Daniels may have the highest ceiling. If he can add some bulk to his frame without losing too much in terms of speed, he is a really exciting prospect. 

Penix has looked really good and looks like the most NFL-ready QB, but two things that have always scared me about the transition from college to the NFL is age and the size/speed guys. For age, once you hit 23 and are still in college, you are playing against 18 yr old kids that are 5 years younger than you. If that is the reason you are performing well in college, that is gone in the NFL. The problem is you won't know until it's too late. For the athletic freak guys who have always been bigger or faster than their opponents at every level finally meet their match at the NFL level. Outside of 2-3 guys in the NFL at any given time, you lose that edge, which is what made them look better or perform better than others in college. Shaheen catching TDs over guys a foot shorter than him. Velus running past dudes like they are standing still. 

 

I was on the Penix train, but the championship game was awful. He didnt look the same at all against a quality defense. And there are the injury concerns.

I think there is a scenario that some people might like that says trade the #1 for a treasure trove and use #9 to take McCarthy, some might prefer Nix.

Williams is the obvious choice on the surface, and your point about not getting cute and just taking the player is a good one.

I do worry about his height, and about his mental stuff, especially whether he is coachable. But on his tape alone, he is really good, and even though hes known for being too hungry for the big plays, he has shown an ability to play in rhythm too, hitting slants and posts and stuff like that in time across the middle.

They had the same concerns about structure and coachability with Mahomes though too. And with Justin too. it's hard to know this aspect. This will be decided on phone calls and discussions with coaches, like the interview with Kingsbury. "if we hire you as OC, do you think you could be successful with Caleb Williams as your QB?" (Im sure they asked about other QBs too) but for example if Kilngsbury wants the job, and wants to be successful and thinks Williams is a head case or not so coachable, he'd probably have indicated that in some way.

I wish we knew those things. usually its a matter of tape, but with Williams, I think he's killing the tape and my concerns are with his head.

How do you weight that?

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

If I knew I could trade the number one and keep number two, I would line to get Drake Maye here.  I've been touting him for months.  The Trubisky/Jones analogy is terrible, due to him having superior traits to both of those combined.  Try Josh Allen and Justin Herbert for comps.  Dude has a cannon and is athletic.

this is good to read. I know the least about Maye right now.

Lemme ask you, if you couldnt trade the pick, would you take Maye with #1 over Williams?

[adam]

31 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

If I knew I could trade the number one and keep number two, I would line to get Drake Maye here.  I've been touting him for months.  The Trubisky/Jones analogy is terrible, due to him having superior traits to both of those combined.  Try Josh Allen and Justin Herbert for comps.  Dude has a cannon and is athletic.

Wow you are that high on Maye? Allen is an MVP Candidate, and Herbert is a perennial 4K passer. You really think Maye can do that? If that is the case, sign me up.

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

Wow you are that high on Maye? Allen is an MVP Candidate, and Herbert is a perennial 4K passer. You really think Maye can do that? If that is the case, sign me up.

He's got all the prototypical tools, and a proven arm. He played a lot more games than Trubisky did, and his numbers are good, but they lag behind Williams and Daniels in both total numbers (like yards) and percentages and ratings.

The knock Ive heard on him is that he doesnt have that magic "it" factor to take over a game and bend it to his will the way the great ones seem to.

But other than the stats, the rest is just me hearing other people's BS, I need to watch a lot more film on Maye before I have any real opinion on him.

If he ends up looking like John Elway or Dan Marino to me or something, Ill be thrilled because of my concerns with Williams.

[adam]

31 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

 

I was on the Penix train, but the championship game was awful. He didnt look the same at all against a quality defense. And there are the injury concerns.

I think there is a scenario that some people might like that says trade the #1 for a treasure trove and use #9 to take McCarthy, some might prefer Nix.

Williams is the obvious choice on the surface, and your point about not getting cute and just taking the player is a good one.

I do worry about his height, and about his mental stuff, especially whether he is coachable. But on his tape alone, he is really good, and even though hes known for being too hungry for the big plays, he has shown an ability to play in rhythm too, hitting slants and posts and stuff like that in time across the middle.

They had the same concerns about structure and coachability with Mahomes though too. And with Justin too. it's hard to know this aspect. This will be decided on phone calls and discussions with coaches, like the interview with Kingsbury. "if we hire you as OC, do you think you could be successful with Caleb Williams as your QB?" (Im sure they asked about other QBs too) but for example if Kilngsbury wants the job, and wants to be successful and thinks Williams is a head case or not so coachable, he'd probably have indicated that in some way.

I wish we knew those things. usually its a matter of tape, but with Williams, I think he's killing the tape and my concerns are with his head.

How do you weight that?

Like I said, as of today, I am taking Williams. As more information comes available, the combine, the E/W and Senior Bowl games, Pro Days, we will be able to complete our assessments. I think the interviews will be able to get into the head side. If there was another red flag, it's Williams' TTT. Very similar to Fields. 

Maye seems like he is still 1B, then Daniels, Penix, and Nix clumped together in Tier 2, and they seem to be based on what type of QB you want.

[BearFan PHX]

OK here's some of that not fitting in stuff I worry about with Williams. This is from when he left Oklahoma, and followed Lincoln Riley to USC.

So, December of 2021. Williams says:

"Me and Spence, we weren’t best friends," Williams said. "I can say that. We weren’t best friends, but we didn’t hate each other either. There’s a bunch of other guys that I’m not best friends with and don’t hate them, either, on the team."

OK Spence is the other QB he supplanted, so OK, fine. But a bunch of other guys? I really wish he didnt give me Claypool vibes.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/big12/2021/12/15/caleb-williams-spencer-rattler-relationship-oklahoma-football/8917719002/

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, adam said:

If there was another red flag, it's Williams' TTT. Very similar to Fields.

That stat is somewhat misleading tho. Williams didnt have great receivers or a good defense, so he was always having to look past easier quick throws and look downfield for bigger plays. One of the knocks on him is that he wont just take a first down, and looks for the homerun too much.

Both of those factors will affect the TTT, but for different reasons.

But you also see lots of examples of Williams doing what Fields wont, and that's hitting a slant or post in rhythm with no hesitation.

So I think stats make them seem comparable, but tape shows it to be two different things. The plus side would be to call Williams a Rogers or Favre like gunslinger, and explain the TTT that way, but then the bigger question is, is Williams coachable? Can he be coached to take the first down? Or is it a selfish personality type?

[adam]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK here's some of that not fitting in stuff I worry about with Williams. This is from when he left Oklahoma, and followed Lincoln Riley to USC.

So, December of 2021. Williams says:

"Me and Spence, we weren’t best friends," Williams said. "I can say that. We weren’t best friends, but we didn’t hate each other either. There’s a bunch of other guys that I’m not best friends with and don’t hate them, either, on the team."

OK Spence is the other QB he supplanted, so OK, fine. But a bunch of other guys? I really wish he didnt give me Claypool vibes.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/big12/2021/12/15/caleb-williams-spencer-rattler-relationship-oklahoma-football/8917719002/

It's really hard to dissect this. I work with hundreds of people, am I friends with all of them? No, best friends with even 10 of them? No. Do I hate anyone? No. This is a kid doing the interview. I am sure there were other players resenting the fact that he won the QB position and never gave it back. 

I also share in the concerns though. If there is anything that is going to derail him, it's probably drama.

[adam]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

That stat is somewhat misleading tho. Williams didnt have great receivers or a good defense, so he was always having to look past easier quick throws and look downfield for bigger plays. One of the knocks on him is that he wont just take a first down, and looks for the homerun too much.

Both of those factors will affect the TTT, but for different reasons.

But you also see lots of examples of Williams doing what Fields wont, and that's hitting a slant or post in rhythm with no hesitation.

So I think stats make them seem comparable, but tape shows it to be two different things. The plus side would be to call Williams a Rogers or Favre like gunslinger, and explain the TTT that way, but then the bigger question is, is Williams coachable? Can he be coached to take the first down? Or is it a selfish personality type?

The only issue is he has done it every year, not just one, and it's also not like it is 3.0X: 3.16 in 2023, 3.24 in 2022 (Heisman year), and holy crap 3.51 in 2021 (OK). So it's not like he had one year where it jumps out. As far as I can tell, Williams is the only QB that I could find with 3+ years with a TTT above 3.0. 

Mahomes: 2.77, 2.85
Fields: 3.11, 3.18
 

Last QBs above 3.0 for 2 or more seasons:

Tune, Willis, Pickett, Fields, Hurts, Ehlinger, and Jackson

Only Ehlinger and Williams had 3 seasons above 3.0 since the stat was recorded.

Williams is the only QB to ever throw for 4K yards while having a TTT over 3.2. So he either is a unicorn, or things are going to come crashing down for him in the NFL when you have less than 2.5 to actually throw the ball.

 

[Mongo3451]

10 hours ago, adam said:

Wow you are that high on Maye? Allen is an MVP Candidate, and Herbert is a perennial 4K passer. You really think Maye can do that? If that is the case, sign me up.

I'm merely speaking size and talent.  He's a big athletic dude with a cannon.  I like that he comes from a very athletic family.  That develops thick skin and determination, getting beat by your older brothers growing up. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm merely speaking size and talent.  He's a big athletic dude with a cannon.  I like that he comes from a very athletic family.  That develops thick skin and determination, getting beat by your older brothers growing up. 

To be honest, he seems like the most ready to play day one. Williams seems to need to change some habits to be successful right away. Has a lot of traits that Justin had coming out. Holds the ball to long, bails from the pocket quickly and fumbles a lot. 

[adam]

Using Passing Yards, Passing TDs, INTs, QBR and PFF Grades over the last two seasons, the most consistent QB of the top 6 is Williams. He never had a PFF Grade under 90, QBR under 80, less than 3500 Passing Yards, 30 TDs, and never had more than 5 INTs in a season. Honestly, that is extremely impressive. 

Right now the order would be Williams, Nix, then Penix for two year production and consistency. The others have more red flags. McCarthy has a ton of red flags.

 

 

[Stinger226]

If anyone is interested, Greg Gabriel lets some information out about questions on Caleb Williams. It's about 15 minutes into the podcast so you don't have to listen to the whole podcast. I'm on my tablet so its hard to send the link. Its his latest Gabriel Talks Football from January 17th. Maybe Adam can do the link.

[adam]

5 TD games:
Williams 10
Nix 7
Daniels 6
Maye 5
Penix 4
McCarthy 0

[adam]

14 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If anyone is interested, Greg Gabriel lets some information out about questions on Caleb Williams. It's about 15 minutes into the podcast so you don't have to listen to the whole podcast. I'm on my tablet so its hard to send the link. Its his latest Gabriel Talks Football from January 17th. Maybe Adam can do the link.

It looks like it depends on the episode:

https://www.youtube.com/@BARROOMNETWORK

 

[adam]

Multi INT Games:
Penix 7
Nix 6
Maye 5
Daniels 3
Williams 2
McCarthy 2

[adam]

300yd passing games:
Penix 25/48
Williams 15/37
Nix 14/61
Daniels 14/55
Maye 12/28
McCarthy 3/40

[AZ54]

13 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK. The Fields thread is killing me. This thread is for the rookie QBs.
If your argument is that we should keep Fields, that's cool, but this thread isn't for that scenario.

The rules of this game are that you have to take a QB with pick #1,
OR you can trade down to #2 and take any QB except for Williams
OR you can trade down to #3 and take any QB except for Williams or Maye
OR you can trade the #1 pick away for a fortune, but then you have to take a QB with pick #9 and it can't be Williams, Maye, Daniels or Penix

This is also a good thread to just talk about whatever you do or don't like about any of the rookie QBs, even if you don't choose to make a pick.

And participation in this thread doesn't mean that there aren't better draft strategies that people prefer.  You could still prefer to keep Fields and also play this game for fun.
But this thread is just to talk about the rookie QBs!

Why are there so many restrictions?  Why couldn't Daniels be there at 9, his film isn't all that good?  Penix is likely to be around into the 20s in this draft, he has a lot of limitations to his game plus a bad injury history.  He might even go like Levis did early in the 2nd Rd.  Who's to say some team doesn't prefer Maye for their system vs. Williams and take Maye #1?   Teams do crazy stuff like trade up for Trey Lance.  

That said, the only QB I would draft in this class is Williams at #1 overall.    

Maye I like and he has some upside in a couple aspects of his game over Fields but downside in others.  His value for me is not worth taking the risk over Fields + massive trade down haul.  

Daniels is Justin Fields in a skinny body.  I see exact same issues and learning curve with him.  I like his upside long term but again the risk/value vs. known quantity in Fields plus draft trade haul puts a far better team on the field over the next 5 seasons.   For a running QB, how does that narrow frame hold up to NFL contact?  

Penix has too many limitations to his game for my taste and his injury history is a big red flag.  I think he'll be a decent starter in the NFL on the right team, but is just as likely to wind down his career as a backup.  I'd guess he'll follow the career arc of players like Derek Carr or JimmyG.  He will be a favorite of media people who love pre-draft workouts.  

If I break the rules:  I'm not totally opposed to drafting JJ McCarthy in the 2nd Rd.  I can take my massive haul for the trade down but hedge my bet on the QB position with a good talent who might just need time away from Harbaugh to get his head on straight.  He's more like Purdy than anyone else in this draft including with the arm strength limitations.  Yet on the right team with that talent from the trade down he could well be good enough.  

 

[AZ54]

13 hours ago, adam said:

Wow you are that high on Maye? Allen is an MVP Candidate, and Herbert is a perennial 4K passer. You really think Maye can do that? If that is the case, sign me up.

I don't watch all the Bills games but of the 3 or 4 I did watch I didn't see a single good game from Josh Allen.  All the stuff here about how we need someone to "play on time" within the offense.... almost none of that showed up.   Admittedly that was earlier in the season and they played better down the stretch but at times he was just WTF awful throwing into coverage.  

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

The only issue is he has done it every year, not just one, and it's also not like it is 3.0X: 3.16 in 2023, 3.24 in 2022 (Heisman year), and holy crap 3.51 in 2021 (OK). So it's not like he had one year where it jumps out. As far as I can tell, Williams is the only QB that I could find with 3+ years with a TTT above 3.0. 

Mahomes: 2.77, 2.85
Fields: 3.11, 3.18
 

Last QBs above 3.0 for 2 or more seasons:

Tune, Willis, Pickett, Fields, Hurts, Ehlinger, and Jackson

Only Ehlinger and Williams had 3 seasons above 3.0 since the stat was recorded.

Williams is the only QB to ever throw for 4K yards while having a TTT over 3.2. So he either is a unicorn, or things are going to come crashing down for him in the NFL when you have less than 2.5 to actually throw the ball.

 

It's the same thing as Fields it would be really nice if some site would put this data into a better statistical distribution.   We look at average but what is the median value (50% above/below), are there two distributions one for pocket passing and one for scrambles?   It's useless comparing guys like Fields and Williams who are elite at scrambling with players who will never ever extend a play like that.   Time trend would be nice too... did things change and get better or worse during the season?   Did opponent affect it?   What happened to Williams from first half of season to second half where he didn't play as well?  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I don't watch all the Bills games but of the 3 or 4 I did watch I didn't see a single good game from Josh Allen.  All the stuff here about how we need someone to "play on time" within the offense.... almost none of that showed up.   Admittedly that was earlier in the season and they played better down the stretch but at times he was just WTF awful throwing into coverage.  

That is like Big Ben. But Big Ben is an all time goat. Josh Allen needs the rings but the dude is an absolute monster. Has some Favre in him but he is no doubt top 3 qb in this league and if it weren’t for Mahomes taking him out 3 straight years, he would have a ring (and it isn’t like he played bad in those games). 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

It's the same thing as Fields it would be really nice if some site would put this data into a better statistical distribution.   We look at average but what is the median value (50% above/below), are there two distributions one for pocket passing and one for scrambles?   It's useless comparing guys like Fields and Williams who are elite at scrambling with players who will never ever extend a play like that.   Time trend would be nice too... did things change and get better or worse during the season?   Did opponent affect it?   What happened to Williams from first half of season to second half where he didn't play as well?  

If Fields was putting up Allen numbers and putting his team in the back and carrying them to wins, I could give two rips about not making on time this and that. But watch Allen - he has some warts but they are like on his toes and everywhere else he’s beautiful as a qb. Dude makes plays all over the field and throws guys open when he is. 
 

But I will say - I think on the field, Caleb is a one in 5 to 7 year qb prospect. As a leader - no idea. I don’t think his issue is Jalen Carter / George Pickens but as a qb he may have a my shit don’t stink attitude that rubs people hard. Kind of like Rodgers later in his career.