CrackerDog Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 What about the Bears trade Fields to NE and flip their first for our second first. Then the Bears have two of the top three picks and can grab MHJ and the QB they love the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, CrackerDog said: What about the Bears trade Fields to NE and flip their first for our second first. Then the Bears have two of the top three picks and can grab MHJ and the QB they love the best. I would do that. However, I would then trade the number two pick for a treasure trove of picks akin to last year. MHJ is a stud, but I think the combine will show that a few receivers will have more speed and separation ability. Not saying they are better, but I really don't think there is much room for MHJ to improve upon, as he has been excellently been trained since peewee league. We could net another number one for next year, Brock Bowers, stud receiver and and edge player with the trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackerDog Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 21 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said: I would do that. However, I would then trade the number two pick for a treasure trove of picks akin to last year. MHJ is a stud, but I think the combine will show that a few receivers will have more speed and separation ability. Not saying they are better, but I really don't think there is much room for MHJ to improve upon, as he has been excellently been trained since peewee league. We could net another number one for next year, Brock Bowers, stud receiver and and edge player with the trade. I like it! But damn I really want MHJ. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 41 minutes ago, CrackerDog said: What about the Bears trade Fields to NE and flip their first for our second first. Then the Bears have two of the top three picks and can grab MHJ and the QB they love the best. That trade is equivalent to a mid-first round pick (going from 9 to 3). It actually makes sense for NE. They get a QB and the #9 pick instead of just a QB at 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, adam said: That trade is equivalent to a mid-first round pick (going from 9 to 3). It actually makes sense for NE. They get a QB and the #9 pick instead of just a QB at 3. If Fields is judged as a flawed QB, why would NE do that when they can get one of the top 2 QBs in the draft? I like playing fantasy football but that's a little bit of a stretch. Plus with the success of Stroud, it ain't happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackerDog Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, Stinger226 said: If Fields is judged as a flawed QB, why would NE do that when they can get one of the top 2 QBs in the draft? I like playing fantasy football but that's a little bit of a stretch. Plus with the success of Stroud, it ain't happening. If Fields is judged as flawed you’re 100% correct. I believe some teams will feel the Bears just did him no favors and they’ll be intrigued by how exciting he is. Kiper believes the Bears can get a second round pick for him or better so dropping back 6 picks in the first round has to be close to equivalent to that. NE would get two players in this scenario, a QB and a stud at 9. Instead of getting the third best rookie QB in the draft. They pick 3rd not 2nd. It might be doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 To me on the trade market - I don't think Chargers or Bills are flipping Allen or Herbert anytime soon. Dolphins I suppose could with Tua (cause he's about to get paid). The other intriguing team is Cowboys with Dak. Dak is also more nearing end of his deal so I presume would be easier to flip. The downfall is - the amount of capital Dallas has to move up to #1 seems insane / unattainable. Meaning - I think the #1 pick is more valuable than Dak - but what if Dallas wanted to make a move for a new QB - they offer Dak, 1st rounder & 2nd rounder this year, plus next year(s) 1st. Bears than acquire Dak and extend him to a team friendly deal (Dak would have to be on board). Dak isn't top 3 good - but he's squarely in the 5-7 good and he's a real good leader and great dude. Bears know they have certainty a QB - they still have more picks - but now there only top pick this year is that #9 pick (I don't know - maybe Dallas has more draft capital than I know I haven't looked). But could Dallas do it - maybe Dak just quietly says I want out - I'm over the drama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 39 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said: To me on the trade market - I don't think Chargers or Bills are flipping Allen or Herbert anytime soon. Dolphins I suppose could with Tua (cause he's about to get paid). The other intriguing team is Cowboys with Dak. Dak is also more nearing end of his deal so I presume would be easier to flip. The downfall is - the amount of capital Dallas has to move up to #1 seems insane / unattainable. Meaning - I think the #1 pick is more valuable than Dak - but what if Dallas wanted to make a move for a new QB - they offer Dak, 1st rounder & 2nd rounder this year, plus next year(s) 1st. Bears than acquire Dak and extend him to a team friendly deal (Dak would have to be on board). Dak isn't top 3 good - but he's squarely in the 5-7 good and he's a real good leader and great dude. Bears know they have certainty a QB - they still have more picks - but now there only top pick this year is that #9 pick (I don't know - maybe Dallas has more draft capital than I know I haven't looked). But could Dallas do it - maybe Dak just quietly says I want out - I'm over the drama. Dallas has #24, #56, and #88, and no 4th rounder this year. To move from #24 to #1 is massive. Even if you consider Dak as a first round pick equivalent, it would take #24, #56, Dak, a 2025 1st, and a 2026 1st at a minimum. Probably another mid round pick in a future year too. That might be too rich for a team that is already close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, adam said: Dallas has #24, #56, and #88, and no 4th rounder this year. To move from #24 to #1 is massive. Even if you consider Dak as a first round pick equivalent, it would take #24, #56, Dak, a 2025 1st, and a 2026 1st at a minimum. Probably another mid round pick in a future year too. That might be too rich for a team that is already close. But they already have a top draft pick in Trey Lance. . . .LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 This is hard for me to believe, but on a Podcast, I heard that Williams has never taken a snap under center. Is that correct? So he never even did a QB sneak from that formation? Seem almost impossible. I can understand him being in shotgun a lot, but NEVER under center seems crazy to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 Take it for what it's worth, but this guy has graded almost every throw of the top QBs in the draft. He comes away saying that Maye is the clearcut choice as the best QB, and it really isn't that close. He has individual pages that give his comps for each QB. He said Maye is a more aggressive Justin Herbert. Williams is a taller Kyler with a worse deep ball. Daniels is a much weaker Justin Fields, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 Also, I love when random charts come out of nowhere. This one shows that if you are in the bottom left quadrant, you should be avoided as a QB (Hi Mitch!). Not a single guy from that group has done anything. To me the upper left and bottom right are a mixed bag, but there are a few names that seem like the outliers (Mahomes, Allen, Purdy, and Rattler?). The top 4 names are Rattler, Maye, Tua, and Mayfield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 Stats are nice to look at, PFF is all about stats and no one on here trusts them. It's just one tool to measure with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 54 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: Stats are nice to look at, PFF is all about stats and no one on here trusts them. It's just one tool to measure with. It seems like negative stats correlate well. Positive stats don't always correlate. Rarely, if ever, do bad players from college turn into great pros. However, a lot of great college QBs fail in the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, adam said: Take it for what it's worth, but this guy has graded almost every throw of the top QBs in the draft. He comes away saying that Maye is the clearcut choice as the best QB, and it really isn't that close. He has individual pages that give his comps for each QB. He said Maye is a more aggressive Justin Herbert. Williams is a taller Kyler with a worse deep ball. Daniels is a much weaker Justin Fields, lol. I checked out the post and saw that our old pal Swifty posted his own chart (below). I also asked “Joe” if he’s done these for past QB draft classes. I’d like to see that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: I checked out the post and saw that our old pal Swifty posted his own chart (below). I also asked “Joe” if he’s done these for past QB draft classes. I’d like to see that. Supposedly this chart was fake or super inaccurate. Drake Maye was one of the most accurate passers, not 15th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, adam said: Supposedly this chart was fake or super inaccurate. Drake Maye was one of the most accurate passers, not 15th. Another couple sources. 1) Author Cam Mellor on CFN (dated 23 November 23) has Bo Nix as #1 and Williams #4 overall. From what I read in his article Cam appears to do more 'eye testing' than mega stat gathering. https://collegefootballnetwork.com/top-college-football-quarterback-rankings-2023/ 2) From SportsNaught author Andrew Buller-Russ (dated 02 December) has Daniels #1, Nix #2 and Williams #3. Maye is #6 on this list. https://sportsnaut.com/top-college-football-quarterbacks/ 3) Lastly, this article from Nick Shultz (dated 23 Dec 23) lists Williams as #1, Maye #2 and Nix at #6 but adds "He (Nix) was the most accurate passer in the country during the regular season..." and "Nix completed an FBS-leading 77.2% of his passes during the regular season..." https://www.on3.com/pro/news/2024-nfl-draft-espn-ranks-top-12-college-football-qbs-quarterback-caleb-williams-drake-maye-jayden-daniels/ Goes to show you how many different opinions you can get as we head deep into draft season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 22 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Another couple sources. 1) Author Cam Mellor on CFN (dated 23 November 23) has Bo Nix as #1 and Williams #4 overall. From what I read in his article Cam appears to do more 'eye testing' than mega stat gathering. https://collegefootballnetwork.com/top-college-football-quarterback-rankings-2023/ 2) From SportsNaught author Andrew Buller-Russ (dated 02 December) has Daniels #1, Nix #2 and Williams #3. Maye is #6 on this list. https://sportsnaut.com/top-college-football-quarterbacks/ 3) Lastly, this article from Nick Shultz (dated 23 Dec 23) lists Williams as #1, Maye #2 and Nix at #6 but adds "He (Nix) was the most accurate passer in the country during the regular season..." and "Nix completed an FBS-leading 77.2% of his passes during the regular season..." https://www.on3.com/pro/news/2024-nfl-draft-espn-ranks-top-12-college-football-qbs-quarterback-caleb-williams-drake-maye-jayden-daniels/ Goes to show you how many different opinions you can get as we head deep into draft season. Trade No 1 and get Nix at no. 9? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 Stats can definitely be misleading. But there are RAW stats like completion percentage, or yards per attempt and those are factual. They dont always tell the whole story, but they are objective. Then there are PFF stats which are subjective. They include a persons opinion about a play, and they also use formulae to take different subjective stats and wash them through some algorithm to produce an even less reliable "stat" in that you need to trust both the opinions going into the algorithm, plus the algorithm itself. PFF is nonsense, real stats are objective, but dont tell the whole story, and watching tape shows you everything in context. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 52 minutes ago, ChileBear said: Trade No 1 and get Nix at no. 9? I think he's going in the second round, according to many of the so called experts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, adam said: Supposedly this chart was fake or super inaccurate. Drake Maye was one of the most accurate passers, not 15th. If that's the case, who do you trust to be accurate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 54 minutes ago, ChileBear said: Trade No 1 and get Nix at no. 9? I'd be great with that. And/or in the second (as Stinger suggests). Get your "haul" for the #1 overall maybe even move back before #9 and get MHJ someway...somehow. The more I hear "experts" talk the more convinced I am that MHJ is probably the only real "generational" talent in this draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 great stuff adam and Grizz, I love all these data points. It's really good to get some points of view that are contrary to the monolithic media narratives. I wont agree with all of them, but hearing the same echo chamber BS over and over is just brainwashing people. Its good to have alternative viewpoints, even if I (we?) end up disagreeing with them, it helps to check our own math. But hearing a sportswriter regurgitate the same crap that he read somewhere else, that started before this season even started is futile. Some examples of narratives that were born in summer of 2023, that still persist as if we havent had a season since then: Justin just needs one more year with some better players around him Caleb Williams is the clear cut cant miss generational talent in this draft Harbaugh is a volatile coach who doesnt belong in the NFL with highly paid players Gervon Dexter is a NT and cant play 3T Kalil Herbert is the best RB on the Bears Cole Kmet is a bust etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: I'd be great with that. And/or in the second (as Stinger suggests). Get your "haul" for the #1 overall maybe even move back before #9 and get MHJ someway...somehow. The more I hear "experts" talk the more convinced I am that MHJ is probably the only real "generational" talent in this draft. I agree with you on the second statement, but I dont think MHJr will drop below about pick #3 or #4 If we have our eye on a QB not named Williams, Daniles or Maye, then maybe we trade down to #3 for something short of a haul, grab MHJr, and then that other QB at #9? But all of that has to be contingent (in my opinion) on having a clear plan for a QB you've identified as the best one in the draft. That is job #1 this year to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 I've said it many times, Drake Maye is our guy. Drake F'n Maye! The momentum is building. Tim Hassellbeck and Dan Orlovsky are the latest. The was also a video I watched where a group of NFL executives where talking about generational QBs and they said, "out of the last four years, they have seen three. Lawrence, Williams and Maye." I also watched an SC interview with Maye before the season. All the dude does is compete. It doesn't matter if it's with Sam Howell or his brothers and Dad. He doesn't care if it's golf or pickleball. He's made for the moment and it won't be too big for him. Eat it Grizz! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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