Free Agency 2024

[Stinger226]

46 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

We only have one worth that kind of money???

I meant free agents not our own free agents.

I would transition tag JJ, 18.4 mil

Resign Mooney on a 3 mil contract, you can always cut him later

Sign AJ Espensa, DE from Buffalo that had 6 sacks in 1/3 of the snaps and played under Washington. 10 mil

Sign Evan Brown/ OC, played under Waldron jn Seattle. 6 mil

Sign Christian Wilkins/DT, Miami is in cap hell OTC has his value at 15 mil.

Draft a center and pass rusher, WR and TE. 

 

 

[jason]

On 1/26/2024 at 10:23 AM, adam said:

Of the players listed here, who are you resigning, who exceeded expectations:

Obviously JJ did, Mooney was terrible, Ngakoue underperformed, Tonyan was a joke, Patrick was bad, Jones was ok, Foreman had flashes but his inactives were odd. Scales if fine, really didn't get to see Feeney, so that ends up as sort of a wasted draft pick trade. Lewis was very solid for TE3, Green was terrible, Taylor was serviceable at best. Did Cole play? ESB underperformed this year and seemed hurt or inactive more than anything. Blackwell was decent from what I remember. Reed did nothing.

So there are a lot of roster spots to fill, and most could use upgrades.

LOL. This is easy. Everyone under JJ can be cut without losing a second of sleep.

[adam]

1 hour ago, jason said:

LOL. This is easy. Everyone under JJ can be cut without losing a second of sleep.

Exactly, lol. That is over 10 spots on the 53-man that can be upgraded from the bottom up. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Exactly, lol. That is over 10 spots on the 53-man that can be upgraded from the bottom up. 

I like Foreman too, but agree with the sentiment otherwise.

[Stinger226]

WCG has a series on the positional breakdowns, seen one on RBs.

We have Herbert , Johnson and Homer signed for next year. I dont think he brings back Foreman, played well for a few games but ends up adding a drafted RB. For sake of cap money, I think he keeps addiing a RB every draft. Homer played in Seattle while Waldron was there and he used him a lot in 3rd downs because of his blocking and pass catching ability. I think he adds a draftee to take over Herberts place after this year.

[adam]

25 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

WCG has a series on the positional breakdowns, seen one on RBs.

We have Herbert , Johnson and Homer signed for next year. I dont think he brings back Foreman, played well for a few games but ends up adding a drafted RB. For sake of cap money, I think he keeps addiing a RB every draft. Homer played in Seattle while Waldron was there and he used him a lot in 3rd downs because of his blocking and pass catching ability. I think he adds a draftee to take over Herberts place after this year.

It depends if the Bears want to use draft capital or cap on that position. With both Herbert and Johnson still on rookie deals, they may go FA. Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler could be options. 

Now that the Bears have Waldron and Brown, I am going to look for FAs from Seattle and Carolina as those two would be intimately knowledgeable about guys from those teams. 

[adam]

SEA FAs of interest:

1. Evan Brown, C, 28, played 91.3% of snaps
2. Noah Fant, TE, 54.6%
3. Leonard Williams, DL, 30, 76.2%
4. Damien Lewis, G, 27, 88.6%

CAR FAs of interest:

1. Brian Burns, Edge, 26, played 77.2% of snaps
2. DJ Chark, WR, 28, 67.1%
3. Jeremy Chinn, S, 26, 27.1%
 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, adam said:

SEA FAs of interest:

1. Evan Brown, C, 28, played 91.3% of snaps
2. Noah Fant, TE, 54.6%
3. Leonard Williams, DL, 30, 76.2%
4. Damien Lewis, G, 27, 88.6%

CAR FAs of interest:

1. Brian Burns, Edge, 26, played 77.2% of snaps
2. DJ Chark, WR, 28, 67.1%
3. Jeremy Chinn, S, 26, 27.1%
 

Those FAs are at positions we need to address. Hope we get a few.

[adam]

Based on contract values, it feels like getting the higher priced positions in the draft is better budgeting. Assuming the Bears have around $30M in cap space for FA spending (subtracting rookie pool, JJ extension at $20M, operating money $5M, cut Whitehair/Jackson), I think they could target some very solid starters in key positions without breaking the bank on one guy. I don't think they are there yet to drop $20-25M on a vet and go all in that year. That feels like 2025-2026. This year it would be DT or Edge but I think Poles targets the Edwards-type deals. Something like this:

Using OTCs player valuation:

1. C - Brown for $4M 
2. TE2 - Fant for $6M
3. FS - Dugger for $6M  (or restructure Jackson's cap down to $11-12M)
4. WR3 - Samuel for $5.5M
5. Edge2/3 - Epenesa for $5M
6. DT - Jefferson or Jones for $6M

With the cap only being the top 51, the Bears can obviously bring in a bunch of $1M guys without impacting the cap. You can also expect 1 or 2 other guys at 2-3M per as well on one-year deals, probably WR4/5, KR/PR, Safety depth, DL rotation, and maybe even RB (Ekeler's OTC Valuation is only $5M per year).

Thoughts?
 

[Stinger226]

58 minutes ago, adam said:

Based on contract values, it feels like getting the higher priced positions in the draft is better budgeting. Assuming the Bears have around $30M in cap space for FA spending (subtracting rookie pool, JJ extension at $20M, operating money $5M, cut Whitehair/Jackson), I think they could target some very solid starters in key positions without breaking the bank on one guy. I don't think they are there yet to drop $20-25M on a vet and go all in that year. That feels like 2025-2026. This year it would be DT or Edge but I think Poles targets the Edwards-type deals. Something like this:

Using OTCs player valuation:

1. C - Brown for $4M 
2. TE2 - Fant for $6M
3. FS - Dugger for $6M  (or restructure Jackson's cap down to $11-12M)
4. WR3 - Samuel for $5.5M
5. Edge2/3 - Epenesa for $5M
6. DT - Jefferson or Jones for $6M

With the cap only being the top 51, the Bears can obviously bring in a bunch of $1M guys without impacting the cap. You can also expect 1 or 2 other guys at 2-3M per as well on one-year deals, probably WR4/5, KR/PR, Safety depth, DL rotation, and maybe even RB (Ekeler's OTC Valuation is only $5M per year).

Thoughts?
 

I would love it if that worked out that way. I think they tag JJ, he said that now he wants to be highest paid CB.

[BearFan PHX]

You're right that you dont want to get financially over your skis until you're in a superbowl contending phase.

But I think every GM has a generic cap allocation map based on positions. Probably two of them, one with a rookie deal QB and another with a top  vet QB deal.

And I think you want to be disciplined and not overspend for guys unless they fit your ideals. Poles has done a great job of that.

But when you find that guy who is the right fit for one of your important positions you spend the money because that's who you were saving it for anyway.

What you want to avoid is spending your full position allotment on a guy who is just a 75%er just because they were the best available free agent. And the reason is that you marry these guys for at least four years, and you want to make sure he's your best option for the forseeable future, not just this one offseason. We've done too much of that over our crappy years.

So in general, I think you're right, and Poles has been disciplined and wont break the bank just because he can, but whenever the right player becomes available, all bets are off, because you had space in your plan for a true stud at that position all along, and here is the opportunity?

I havent particularly identified anyone in specific for that scenario in this years free agent group, but they could come in trade too and not be on that list.

[dawhizz]

The sense I get is that Evan Brown was not very good for the Seahawks last year.  Four Seattle Seahawks who should not return in 2024 (12thmanrising.com)  We don't need another Lucas Patrick 2.0.  In what's a unusually good C FA crop, I'm hoping there are better options.

 

My FA wish list would be something like:

-Lloyd Cushenberry, C

-Curtis Samuel, WR

-One of the young safeties (Kamren Curl, Xavier McKinney)

-Za'Darius Smith, DE

[adam]

Sweat and Hunter? Wow, that would arguably be the most formidable duo since prime Dent/Hampton. Mack/Quinn would be close but Quinn was a liability against the run.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

55 minutes ago, adam said:

Sweat and Hunter? Wow, that would arguably be the most formidable duo since prime Dent/Hampton. Mack/Quinn would be close but Quinn was a liability against the run.

 

He’s been brought up before as a potential pickup for Chicago. I for one would be great with it.  But would Minny want to trade him in the division?  

[BearFan PHX]

I like Hunter the player, but I wouldnt be surprised if we take our complementary DE in the draft at #9. It's always good to have your ends on different schedules so when Sweat ages, the rookie is peaking. And there are probably 3 DEs worthy of a pick in the #9 area.

If we're looking at 3T with the #9 pick, then a FA DE makes more sense. And if we are looking at WR or OT, then we definitely need a DE in free agency.

[BearFan PHX]

Usually, you see GMs wanting to use free agency to plug holes so they can be flexible in the draft and not have to reach to fill a hole, or miss someone great dropping because you have to fill a hole.

I expect free agent moves at FS, OC/OG, DE, WR, TE, HB they wont necessarily be the most exciting guys, and some will be supplanted by rookies, but you can't know which until the draft plays out.

If we can get one or two real impact players in Free Agency, even better, and then the rest can be decent role players for rookies to challenge.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

29 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Usually, you see GMs wanting to use free agency to plug holes so they can be flexible in the draft and not have to reach to fill a hole, or miss someone great dropping because you have to fill a hole.

I expect free agent moves at FS, OC/OG, DE, WR, TE, HB they wont necessarily be the most exciting guys, and some will be supplanted by rookies, but you can't know which until the draft plays out.

If we can get one or two real impact players in Free Agency, even better, and then the rest can be decent role players for rookies to challenge.

You for sure want to use those draft resources on expensive positions like DE.  Do they make a push this year is the question, if they think they are close, Hunter makes sense and you can draft a prospect rd 2 or 3.  But if they go QB, then they might not make that push this year and get offensive weapons to make the transition smoother. 

[BearFan PHX]

22 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

You for sure want to use those draft resources on expensive positions like DE.  Do they make a push this year is the question, if they think they are close, Hunter makes sense and you can draft a prospect rd 2 or 3.  But if they go QB, then they might not make that push this year and get offensive weapons to make the transition smoother. 

yes, and even if our plan is to take a DE at #9, we will still sign one in free agency.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Sweat and Hunter? Wow, that would arguably be the most formidable duo since prime Dent/Hampton. Mack/Quinn would be close but Quinn was a liability against the run.

 

I figure Hunter is number one on Bears list. Him or Jones and if you take qb at top you can use the cap space on him. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

13 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

yes, and even if our plan is to take a DE at #9, we will still sign one in free agency.

That could happen but I hope the Bears commit to whoever is going to be QB by investing in the missing talent.  The WR core is basically one man.  DJ said in those clips from Vegas recently posted that he needs a WR.  He never mentioned Mooney, which is damning, and maybe why Mooney disappeared if they didn't get along.  When asked, DJ said he would take Velus with him to a new team and said Scott was too raw. Again, no mention of Mooney. The Bears need a MHJ, Nabers, or Oduze to get the offense on par and to give the QB a chance. 

[adam]

14 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I figure Hunter is number one on Bears list. Him or Jones and if you take qb at top you can use the cap space on him. 

I would love either one. A 3-4 year deal would cover this "run". 

[Stinger226]

Other than JJ, Poles isn't paying a big contract to anyone. He will add 2nd tier players, Edwards, Billings types . He can bring in a OC and FS for under 10 mil contracts. I think he brings back J. Jones at DT. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Other than JJ, Poles isn't paying a big contract to anyone. He will add 2nd tier players, Edwards, Billings types . He can bring in a OC and FS for under 10 mil contracts. I think he brings back J. Jones at DT. 

The team is void of "dudes", Jones is fine for depth, Billings is good, Dexter is improving, but they need an elite gut inside. With Jackson's and Whitehair's numbers coming off the books, they can easily extend JJ AND sign a top tier FA with ease.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, adam said:

The team is void of "dudes", Jones is fine for depth, Billings is good, Dexter is improving, but they need an elite gut inside. With Jackson's and Whitehair's numbers coming off the books, they can easily extend JJ AND sign a top tier FA with ease.

I'm not saying they can't do it, I'm saying that's how he controls the cap and isn't going to. After a winning season, next will be the year, he's adds that piece to get us to the SB run he will expect. He brought in DJ Moore, Sweat this year that get paid big money . Will tag JJ, that's 3 big contracts in one year. Paid Edmunds. No way he's adding another big contract. IMO

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I'm not saying they can't do it, I'm saying that's how he controls the cap and isn't going to. After a winning season, next will be the year, he's adds that piece to get us to the SB run he will expect. He brought in DJ Moore, Sweat this year that get paid big money . Will tag JJ, that's 3 big contracts in one year. Paid Edmunds. No way he's adding another big contract. IMO

If the Bears just add say Williams, Odunze, and a Center, DT, Edge, or S in the 2nd round, with all mid to low tier FAs, is this team that much better than other teams that also had 1st and 2nd round picks? Sweat (25), Edmunds (22), Moore (16), Kmet (11), and Davis (11) are the only players over 10M. So if you add JJ for 20-ish that's around 105M in your top 6.

SF has 10 players over 14M and $111M in their top 4 players. 

KC has 7 players over 10M, and that includes Mahomes at 57M, which essentially counts as 2. Their top 3 make up 108M.

 

So either way, it feels like to me the Bears are going to add at least 1 player to the 10M club beyond the JJ extension.