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Free Agency 2024


adam

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1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Saw the numbers on his deal, (allegedly) he was offered 3 years $39 million from both Chicago and Jax.  For perspective, recently departed Darnell Mooney was offered 3 years $30 million from Chicago.  But instead took 3 years $39 million to join Atlanta. 

Yeah - I think Bears offered Mooney 3yr deal worth 10M+ (it didn't say how much) before the '23 season. I don't know whether they offered him anything this year. They did try for Davis and with Poles things are quiet so who knows who they are talking to now.

Samuel, former teammate of Moore, seems like a potential good fit.  Ridley could be as well.  

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Just now, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Big no on Young, not worth the chance of him waking up. Poles wants a mentality and culture of team players that buy into HITS 

If it weren't for him and Sweat being tight, I would have said for sure no. But this could be one where good intelligence and a good teammate and culture could be a good thing. I don't think Washington was a very healthy culture.  

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3 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both on the block/potentially released later today, it is worth noting that the Bears WR coach was with Chargers working with those 2 for 3 years. 

Funny you bring up Chargers players potentially on the chopping block.  Allegedly so too are Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa (below).  I was checking the status of Leonard Floyd and AJ Espensa given their familiarity with DC coach Armstrong, but Floyd signed with SF and Espensa re-signed with Buff.  (I tried what you suggested adam with Twitter and it didn’t work). 
 

https://twitter.com/jasrifootball/status/1767946220733894998?s=46&t=KrpJmhSTc4DI1sACtjisOQ

 

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Hunter Renfrow released by Raiders. Wouldn't expect him to get a lot of money - coming off 2 down years working with Mcdaniels, before that though had 3 straight good years, with his best being a 1K+ season.  I would expect you could get him for a few million and Bears need DEPTH pieces badly.  

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35 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Hunter Renfrow released by Raiders. Wouldn't expect him to get a lot of money - coming off 2 down years working with Mcdaniels, before that though had 3 straight good years, with his best being a 1K+ season.  I would expect you could get him for a few million and Bears need DEPTH pieces badly.  

Their will be many choices to get. 

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1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Khalil Mack deal restructured - so he is not going anywhere.  Now to see if Keenan Allen or Joey Bosa hit the street.  Mike Williams is out there, but Allen would be a great get on a short term deal (he's older - but dude can still play).  

DJ Moore, Mike Williams, and Curtis Samuel would be a pretty sweet trio coupled with Kmet and Everett and Swift with catches out of the backfield. That is a ton of targets.

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The big splash for me would be Mike Williams. Coming off injury, he shouldn't command top dollar compared to his potential as a super WR2. Compliments Moore perfectly at 6'4" 220.

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12 minutes ago, adam said:

The big splash for me would be Mike Williams. Coming off injury, he shouldn't command top dollar compared to his potential as a super WR2. Compliments Moore perfectly at 6'4" 220.

He is just so injury prone - I would still want to grab one of the high end wideouts - but I do think Williams is a good fit next to Moore.  

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18 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

He is just so injury prone - I would still want to grab one of the high end wideouts - but I do think Williams is a good fit next to Moore.  

I don't think it would preclude them from drafting a WR high. His price can't be that high. He has only had 2 1K seasons, and the last one was in 2021. So he is 2 years removed from a great season. How much do you think he would command? His last contract averaged 20M AAV, and that seems way too high for his production. I was thinking something similar to Mooney's $13M.

Now that I am reading more, he is coming off an ACL injury, so his availability is unknown, on second pass, I will pass on him.

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Just now, adam said:

I don't think it would preclude them from drafting a WR high. His price can't be that high. He has only had 2 1K seasons, and the last one was in 2021. So he is 2 years removed from a great season. How much do you think he would command? His last contract averaged 20M AAV, and that seems way too high for his production. I was thinking something similar to Mooney's $13M.

But $13M is still pretty steep for a guy coming off an ACL injury, but I would be on board for say 2yr 20M.  Feels like a good risk/reward.  I just worry about how a wideout who was already on the slower side who relied a lot on his height will do coming back from that injury.

Or maybe it doesn't impact it as much cause speed isn't really a huge part of his game.  

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1 minute ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

But $13M is still pretty steep for a guy coming off an ACL injury, but I would be on board for say 2yr 20M.  Feels like a good risk/reward.  I just worry about how a wideout who was already on the slower side who relied a lot on his height will do coming back from that injury.

Or maybe it doesn't impact it as much cause speed isn't really a huge part of his game.  

If anything, knowing the injury history, it would have to be an incentive-laden deal, with nothing guaranteed beyond this year. 

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8 minutes ago, adam said:

If anything, knowing the injury history, it would have to be an incentive-laden deal, with nothing guaranteed beyond this year. 

Goid point, plus our WR coach was his coach in LA and Everett played with him.

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So far, a lot of cap spending left to fill the remaining roster vacancies:

1. FS - Jackson (58.6/646) > Byard (72.8/1187)
2. DB - Blackwell (28.5/21)> Owens (59.6/927)
3. RB - Foreman (74.0/267) > Swift (66.5/669)
4. TE - Tonyan (49.6/319)> Everett (65.6/570)
5. G - Feeney (44.8/90) > Bates (78.7/35)
6. G - Patrick (50.5/953) > Prior (88.5/42)
7. LB - Cole (50.1/3)> (Ogbongbemiga (72.6/6)

1. C - Whitehair (45.0/787) > FA/Rookie
2. TE - Lewis (77.1/330) >  FA/Rookie
3. WR - St. Brown (55.1/211) > FA/Rookie
4. WR - Mooney (55.2/764) > FA/Rookie
5. WR - Taylor (51.8/121) > FA/Rookie

1. DE - Ngakoue (39.9/592)> FA/Rookie
2. DE - Green (50.6/385) > FA/Rookie
3. DT - Jones (49.3/740) > FA/Rookie

4 big shoes to fill left, C, WR, DE, and DT.

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I tried to come up with an objective value for the players that left and the ones that replaced them. So far, the Bears are doing really good. Here is what I call a PFF Approximate Value (AV) using their PFF score weighted against their snap counts.  This may not be as easy to see but once the Bears can fill those 4 bigger shoes, they will be markedly improved already based on these moves.

 

Screenshot 2024-03-13 170623.png

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I am curious to see what the Bears do - would be pretty content with Renfrow and Samuel at wideout in advance of draft.  I presume Williams will sit for a while now that he has been released as I presume most teams will take their time and see how his ACL Rehab is going before signing him to an agreement.  

Bears would presumably have a leg up given familiarity that exists (Everett + Bears Wideout Coach).  I also wonder if they do something similar with Connor Williams, who I still think would be a solid get - let Bates play and than he becomes your swing guard and affordable depth move.  

Give a pass rusher a 1-2 year deal whether Bosa, or one of the guys the Eagles eventually cut, Clowney, etc.  Basically keep your cap space ready for next year - I think someone mentioned it, but now wasn't the time to go all-in, given the cap space.

We will have a young QB - so even if he plays like CJ Stroud (which is your best case scenario) - you aren't going to a supwerbowl - so make sure you are not so cheap that you put your rookie QB in a bad spot (ie what the Bears did with Field(s) surrounding him with nothing for 2 years), but in general - keep your flexibility for the upcoming years and than push your chips more all in with the cap space you have (they'll also have a full suite of picks next year to bolster dline and potentially oline).  

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56 minutes ago, adam said:

I tried to come up with an objective value for the players that left and the ones that replaced them. So far, the Bears are doing really good. Here is what I call a PFF Approximate Value (AV) using their PFF score weighted against their snap counts.  This may not be as easy to see but once the Bears can fill those 4 bigger shoes, they will be markedly improved already based on these moves.

 

Screenshot 2024-03-13 170623.png

They haven't made any franchise altering signings but we have gotten better. Bates is the starting OC until they add someone else.

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26 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I am curious to see what the Bears do - would be pretty content with Renfrow and Samuel at wideout in advance of draft.  I presume Williams will sit for a while now that he has been released as I presume most teams will take their time and see how his ACL Rehab is going before signing him to an agreement.  

Bears would presumably have a leg up given familiarity that exists (Everett + Bears Wideout Coach).  I also wonder if they do something similar with Connor Williams, who I still think would be a solid get - let Bates play and than he becomes your swing guard and affordable depth move.  

Give a pass rusher a 1-2 year deal whether Bosa, or one of the guys the Eagles eventually cut, Clowney, etc.  Basically keep your cap space ready for next year - I think someone mentioned it, but now wasn't the time to go all-in, given the cap space.

We will have a young QB - so even if he plays like CJ Stroud (which is your best case scenario) - you aren't going to a supwerbowl - so make sure you are not so cheap that you put your rookie QB in a bad spot (ie what the Bears did with Field(s) surrounding him with nothing for 2 years), but in general - keep your flexibility for the upcoming years and than push your chips more all in with the cap space you have (they'll also have a full suite of picks next year to bolster dline and potentially oline).  

Yeah, if Bates only has to start 3-4 games to start the season before Williams is 100%, I don't think that would be season altering. It feels like the first month of the season is a crapshoot anyway. Just survive and go 2-2 and get ready for the real season to kick in.

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22 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

They haven't made any franchise altering signings but we have gotten better. Bates is the starting OC until they add someone else.

and none of the deals have been long so far. I don't believe anyone has signed for more than 3 years (Swift) with an out after 2. That really aligns with a Fields 6th year pay raise where the team sheds these current salaries in place of rookies. 

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17 minutes ago, adam said:

and none of the deals have been long so far. I don't believe anyone has signed for more than 3 years (Swift) with an out after 2. That really aligns with a Fields 6th year pay raise where the team sheds these current salaries in place of rookies. 

This is the blueprint on how Poles operates business. Every year turns out the same.

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