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Free Agency 2024


adam

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1. G/C - Patrick (50.5/953) > Coleman Shelton (64.5/1113)
2. C/G - Whitehair (45.0/787) > Jake Curhan (55.7/296)
3. WR - Mooney (55.2/764) > Curtis Samuel or Cedric Wilson
4. DT - Jones (49.3/740) > Poona Ford or DJ Reader
5. DE - Ngakoue (39.9/592)> DJ Wonnum or Chase Young
6. DE - Green (50.6/385) > Shaw Lawson or Solomon Thomas
7. TE - Lewis (77.1/330) >  Adam Trautman or Josiah Deguara
8. WR - St. Brown (55.1/211) > Tyler Boyd or Josh Reynolds or KJ Osborn
9. WR/PR - Taylor (51.8/121) > Braxton Berrios or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Not really a positional replacement, but Curhan fills in as a Swing Tackle competing with Borom and Collins I assume.

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I don't know if Poles is going off my list, but he has been clearing off the top of the list at a pretty consistent rate.

If he keeps it up, a WR (1,096 total snaps needed), DE (977), or DT (740) should be next:

1. WR - Mooney (55.2/764) > Curtis Samuel or Cedric Wilson
2. DT - Jones (49.3/740) > Poona Ford or DJ Reader
3. DE - Ngakoue (39.9/592)> DJ Wonnum or Chase Young
4. DE - Green (50.6/385) > Shaw Lawson or Solomon Thomas
5. TE - Lewis (77.1/330) >  Adam Trautman or Josiah Deguara
6. WR - St. Brown (55.1/211) > Tyler Boyd or Josh Reynolds or KJ Osborn
7. WR/PR - Taylor (51.8/121) > Braxton Berrios or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

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5 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

My guess is we will see they signed the Vikings Dlinemen by end of the day.  I'm guessing 3yr 30M.

If this was in fact Wonnum you were talking about, I read his deal with Carolina was 2 years for $14.5 million.

Allegedly he never made it out of the Panther's facility to negotiate with Chicago.  Still, that price isn't horrible.  

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2024/03/14/dj-wonnum-bears-car/

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15 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

If this was in fact Wonnum you were talking about, I read his deal with Carolina was 2 years for $14.5 million.

Allegedly he never made it out of the Panther's facility to negotiate with Chicago.  Still, that price isn't horrible.  

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2024/03/14/dj-wonnum-bears-car/

We never know how Poles views players , no one has ever mentioned names we signed so the experts have no access to Poles. We know he's talking to people. Last year we were complaining about no DE and Ngakoue popped up. We have to be patient.

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1. DT - Jones (49.3/740) > Poona Ford or DJ Reader
2. DE - Ngakoue (39.9/592)> Chase Young
3. DE - Green (50.6/385) > Shaw Lawson or Solomon Thomas
4. TE - Lewis (77.1/330) >  Adam Trautman or Josiah Deguara
5. WR - St. Brown (55.1/211) > Tyler Boyd or Josh Reynolds or KJ Osborn
6. WR/PR - Taylor (51.8/121) > Braxton Berrios or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

So far Poles has basically doubled the production from the same amount of roster spots. That is how you upgrade the team. 

Screenshot 2024-03-15 074515.png

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42 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

I wish Poles would stop going the cheap/wait and see route for DE, since it has not really worked yet (Muhammad, Walker, Ngakoue). 

Walker is not a bad p!ayer. He just doesn't over pay for players. I think he figures the draft for premium players. One DL in the first round.

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3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Walker is not a bad p!ayer. He just doesn't over pay for players. I think he figures the draft for premium players. One DL in the first round.

I assume the current plan is to trade down from 9 and take whoever’s left of Turner, Verse, Robinson, or Latu. 

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The Vikings picking up an extra 1st round pick from the Texans was really interesting to see. I don't think I can recall a move like this happening that didn't involve players or wasn't moving into one of the top slots for a QB.  Really strange - clearly they are moving up for some reason, but this is usually the type of thing you see happen on draft day when a player is moving up to get its targeted player, etc, vs. a month+ before the draft.

Very clear Vikings are interested in moving up to get a QB....or is this what it takes to get Justin Fields and that Texans pick is just what we want...hahahahha.  A man can dream can't he.  

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1 minute ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The Vikings picking up an extra 1st round pick from the Texans was really interesting to see. I don't think I can recall a move like this happening that didn't involve players or wasn't moving into one of the top slots for a QB.  Really strange - clearly they are moving up for some reason, but this is usually the type of thing you see happen on draft day when a player is moving up to get its targeted player, etc, vs. a month+ before the draft.

Very clear Vikings are interested in moving up to get a QB....or is this what it takes to get Justin Fields and that Texans pick is just what we want...hahahahha.  A man can dream can't he.  

They want the first pick. They now have 11 and 23 in the first round. What else can we get from them? They still have next years first. Jordon Addison? Played with Williams.

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3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

They want the first pick. They now have 11 and 23 in the first round. What else can we get from them? They still have next years first. Jordon Addison? Played with Williams.

Because they are in our division, they'd have to pay a premium. 

11 & 23 from this years 1st rd PLUS, a minimum of a 1st in 2025 and a 2nd in 2026.

Otherwise, screw them. Sorry, no love loss for the Vikes.

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4 minutes ago, Pixote said:

Because they are in our division, they'd have to pay a premium. 

11 & 23 from this years 1st rd PLUS, a minimum of a 1st in 2025 and a 2nd in 2026.

Otherwise, screw them. Sorry, no love loss for the Vikes.

It's okay to stick it to them because they're in our division. Teams fighting for the first pick is driving the price up.

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Down to 11 for this qb probably costs 4 first round picks.  I would give them 1 for ....NM , they have traded their second. Minnesota isn't a true trade partner given they don't have a second round pick. 1 for 11, 23, 2025 1st, 2026 1st 2027 2nd I'd do. 

Hope CW busts or gets injured and they turn into the new age panthers

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13 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Kenny Pickett to Eagles.  Not sure what for.  

Holy Cow, the Eagles would rather have Kenny Pickett over Justin Fields.  Justin Fields is going to be in the XFL, that is if they even want him, probably bagging groceries but he'd be missing wide open bags.  Guys the writing is on the wall, no one wants JF1.  ?

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Steelers swap a 4th to get a 3rd and 2x 7ths for Pickett. According to trade value chart, the equivalent to an early 4th rounder in total for Pickett.

 

For Fields, he isn't available, the price is too high, or no one wants him. 

 

I guess this puts Pittsburgh back in play as Wilson's backup. RW is 35.  If Fields doesn't play much an extension wouldn't be in the $50M range. 

 

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Dante Pettis back in the fold, that should fulfill the WR/PR spot that Taylor had.


That leaves 5 roster vacancies from last year remaining:

1. DT - Jones (49.3/740) > Poona Ford or DJ Reader
2. DE - Ngakoue (39.9/592)> Chase Young
3. DE - Green (50.6/385) > Shaw Lawson or Solomon Thomas
4. TE - Lewis (77.1/330) >  Adam Trautman or Josiah Deguara
5. WR - St. Brown (55.1/211) > Tyler Boyd or Josh Reynolds or KJ Osborn

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Using PFF+Snap count, plugging in the loss of Fields and adding Williams with a generic score for now. The team is 2x high end starters better or the equivalent of taking 4 average players and making them really good. With 22 starters, that is close to 20%. Once you plug in the new first rounder, that will be a 5th slot. 

Just using projections, the Bears improved at RB, TE, C, WR on offense and at S on defense so far this offseason. The weakness is still Edge with a need for a rotational DT and veteran WR3. They can definitely address 2 of those in the draft.

Screenshot 2024-03-17 115610.png

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I think out last moves are just bodies until we draft those spots.

I don't see Zack Martin or Byron Cowert surprising anybody. If we don't pick up a quality DL in Free agency what position can we go with without help? I think with Allen and Moore we could compete wit this WR room. We need bodies at edge. With 3 DTs in place , I think we can get by w/o a new DT. 

After QB edge is the most important acquisition. Turner could put us in one of the top 5 defenses in the league. That helps whoever the QB is. 

Dallas Turner

Jared Verse

L. Katy

One of these should be pick 9.

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2 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think out last moves are just bodies until we draft those spots.

I don't see Zack Martin or Byron Cowert surprising anybody. If we don't pick up a quality DL in Free agency what position can we go with without help? I think with Allen and Moore we could compete wit this WR room. We need bodies at edge. With 3 DTs in place , I think we can get by w/o a new DT. 

After QB edge is the most important acquisition. Turner could put us in one of the top 5 defenses in the league. That helps whoever the QB is. 

Dallas Turner

Jared Verse

L. Katy

One of these should be pick 9.

There is certainly a good chance that we end up with Turner, and he would elevate our defense for sure, but I think we are already a top 5 defense as the roster is right now even?

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21 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

There is certainly a good chance that we end up with Turner, and he would elevate our defense for sure, but I think we are already a top 5 defense as the roster is right now even?

We are very close, I think a lot depends on the progress of Dexter and Pickens. Experts say from year one to two is when players make the biggest jump. I think edge 1  would be a better value than WR. 4 .

A few more draft picks sure would be great this year.

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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

We are very close, I think a lot depends on the progress of Dexter and Pickens. Experts say from year one to two is when players make the biggest jump. I think edge 1  would be a better value than WR. 4 .

A few more draft picks sure would be great this year.

If we take one of the big three WRs at pick 9, Odunze, Nabers or MHJr, they might technically be WR3 on this squad, but they are future #1 or co #1 WRs with Moore.

If you just want to win this year, DE or DT is a clear answer, but if youre building a squad and a WR group for Williams to be in sync with for years, then a WR is just as valuable, and it just depends on how you have the players graded out. Dont sleep on an OT either, even though its a short term lesser need. If you end up with Alt on Williams left, that definitely does things for you offense for the next 15 years that would be amazing. And OL is so important too.

So again, I dont think its so much about position as it is just the specific ratings you have on each player. And it would be really hard for any of us to look at film and then try to say whether Nabers or Alt is the better player. I can possibly compare players at the same position, but that kind of draft room thinking between positions is pretty high level and wed need many hours to be able to even come up with a way of rating and ranking all that. And likely wed be worse than PFF at it, and they have a lot of resources, and they are still terrible at it too. LOL

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