Team Development Long Term

[adam]

So I saw a thread on Twitter on how SB winning teams have never had a QB that took more than 15% of the cap in any year to date. Which is odd considering most of the SBs were won by Brady, Roethlisberger, Mahomes, and Flacco over the last 20 years. 

So I looked back to year 2000 to see what were the top 10 teams in terms of winning pct, how many HC's they had, how many different leading QBs they had, playoff appearances, SB appearances, and SB wins.

The Bears were 21st over this span with a 181-206 record, which is sad. 

So what stands out below is the top of the top teams have had the same HC or only 1-2 over the last 20+ years. Secondly, over that same time, most of them had only 4-5 QBs over that same span, which is impressive. The best teams made it to the playoffs 2/3 of the time. Besides NE, even the next few teams had 3 SB appearances in that span (once every 8 years), and a few other teams won multiple.

This is why hitting on the HC and QB are critical. Do we have the right HC for a long term to get the Bears back to the SB? Is Fields the QB that is going to spend the next decade plus with an extended playoff run?

Looking at this, I think they made a mistake with Flus, but didn't want to fire him and have to pay two HCs. I think they are going to be doubly wrong if they think Fields is the guy to build around, but at the same time, if they draft a QB, then fire Flus, we are back at the clown cycle.

[adam]

For the Bears to get back to .500 in this century, they would have to go 10-7 for the next 9 seasons, lol.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

So I saw a thread on Twitter on how SB winning teams have never had a QB that took more than 15% of the cap in any year to date. Which is odd considering most of the SBs were won by Brady, Roethlisberger, Mahomes, and Flacco over the last 20 years. 

So I looked back to year 2000 to see what were the top 10 teams in terms of winning pct, how many HC's they had, how many different leading QBs they had, playoff appearances, SB appearances, and SB wins.

The Bears were 21st over this span with a 181-206 record, which is sad. 

So what stands out below is the top of the top teams have had the same HC or only 1-2 over the last 20+ years. Secondly, over that same time, most of them had only 4-5 QBs over that same span, which is impressive. The best teams made it to the playoffs 2/3 of the time. Besides NE, even the next few teams had 3 SB appearances in that span (once every 8 years), and a few other teams won multiple.

This is why hitting on the HC and QB are critical. Do we have the right HC for a long term to get the Bears back to the SB? Is Fields the QB that is going to spend the next decade plus with an extended playoff run?

Looking at this, I think they made a mistake with Flus, but didn't want to fire him and have to pay two HCs. I think they are going to be doubly wrong if they think Fields is the guy to build around, but at the same time, if they draft a QB, then fire Flus, we are back at the clown cycle.

this is excellent data, and it just reaffirms what I've thought. The NFL is all about the franchise QB.

Some may make the conclusion that stability is the secret sauce, but here's another angle: when you have a great QB, and win games, no one gets fired. So maybe stability in an of itself isn't the thing, but having a franchise QB MAKES your franchise stable.

I worry about our clown cycle too. I know we were trapped in a pattern where the coach and the QB were out of sync. I know that we were stuck for decades trying to hold on to some small part of what was good the year before and build on it. And that doesn't work. You have to build something from the ground up.

I thought the 2022 season was the painful price we'd pay to finally break that cycle. And we'd give Fields 2023 to show whether he could be that QB or not.

After this year, it should be obvious that Fields is not ever going to be one of the names on that list. He may become a 6 or a 7 out of 10, and so I understand why people like him. He's better than a 4! And we've never had a 9 in our franchise. Fields is probably right now one of the top three all time Bears QBs. But we are also the only franchise that has never had a 4,000 yard passing season. So our bar is low, and we are so thirsty, that Fields looks good to us.

If we keep Fields, I strongly believe the whole thing will come crashing down.

If we draft a Caleb Williams or top rookie QB prospect that we believe in, then the roster will be on the right schedule in terms of collective timeline.

While I don't believe Fields will ever take us to a Superbowl, I do believe that we could win one despite Eberflus, but I dont think he gives us any edge in that. I think having a head coach who brings a competitive advantage to the table is a huge upside, and that's a lost opportunity we have just whiffed on. All in the name of one extra year of coaching salary. Ugh.

If Waldron is a genius and the rookie QB is the real deal, perhaps it will all work. But then Waldron's gone to be a HC somewhere. And all youve still got for coaching is a vanilla run of the mill defensive playcaller who makes tons of mistakes in situational football.

So I also think it's likely that Eberflus wont be around in a couple years. If Waldron is good and Poles has the balls to do it, he could fire Eberflus and promote Waldron and keep continuity. That's probably the only way to keep from the OTHER scenario.

And the OTHER scenario is the one we've seen over and over - a new Head Coach and offense for a QB in their 2nd or 3rd year AGAIN. And THAT IS the clown show.

And yet, if we draft Caleb Williams, and he can ball out and survive a coaching change, then maybe we can finally get out of this pit of despair that we've inhabited for decades.

So your chart, and all this ends up with: the most important thing in the NFL is a franchise QB, and if you get that right you can survive anything else.

And if we keep Fields, and we dont get to the promised land, then maybe we trade or cut him after next year along with an Eberflus firing. That could synchronize the QB and HC, but that foolish adventure will have cost us an extra year of Sweat's window for nothing, and there is no guarantee that we'll have the draft capital to get a franchise QB at #1 without mortgaging the farm going forward.

We really should have fired Eberflus this year, and we had really better draft a top rookie QB.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, adam said:

So I saw a thread on Twitter on how SB winning teams have never had a QB that took more than 15% of the cap in any year to date. Which is odd considering most of the SBs were won by Brady, Roethlisberger, Mahomes, and Flacco over the last 20 years. 

So I looked back to year 2000 to see what were the top 10 teams in terms of winning pct, how many HC's they had, how many different leading QBs they had, playoff appearances, SB appearances, and SB wins.

The Bears were 21st over this span with a 181-206 record, which is sad. 

So what stands out below is the top of the top teams have had the same HC or only 1-2 over the last 20+ years. Secondly, over that same time, most of them had only 4-5 QBs over that same span, which is impressive. The best teams made it to the playoffs 2/3 of the time. Besides NE, even the next few teams had 3 SB appearances in that span (once every 8 years), and a few other teams won multiple.

This is why hitting on the HC and QB are critical. Do we have the right HC for a long term to get the Bears back to the SB? Is Fields the QB that is going to spend the next decade plus with an extended playoff run?

Looking at this, I think they made a mistake with Flus, but didn't want to fire him and have to pay two HCs. I think they are going to be doubly wrong if they think Fields is the guy to build around, but at the same time, if they draft a QB, then fire Flus, we are back at the clown cycle.

On your Flus comment - one question would be cause vs. correlation. We saw Beli become human as soon as Brady left.  Who knows what Payton is without Brees.  But the reality is - GB had multiple coaches in that timeframe - why did they stay great - cause of Aaron Rodgers.  Basically didn't matter who the HC was - GB's down seasons almost always correlated to Rodgers getting hurt.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

23 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

this is excellent data, and it just reaffirms what I've thought. The NFL is all about the franchise QB.

Some may make the conclusion that stability is the secret sauce, but here's another angle: when you have a great QB, and win games, no one gets fired. So maybe stability in an of itself isn't the thing, but having a franchise QB MAKES your franchise stable.

I worry about our clown cycle too. I know we were trapped in a pattern where the coach and the QB were out of sync. I know that we were stuck for decades trying to hold on to some small part of what was good the year before and build on it. And that doesn't work. You have to build something from the ground up.

I thought the 2022 season was the painful price we'd pay to finally break that cycle. And we'd give Fields 2023 to show whether he could be that QB or not.

After this year, it should be obvious that Fields is not ever going to be one of the names on that list. He may become a 6 or a 7 out of 10, and so I understand why people like him. He's better than a 4! And we've never had a 9 in our franchise. Fields is probably right now one of the top three all time Bears QBs. But we are also the only franchise that has never had a 4,000 yard passing season. So our bar is low, and we are so thirsty, that Fields looks good to us.

If we keep Fields, I strongly believe the whole thing will come crashing down.

If we draft a Caleb Williams or top rookie QB prospect that we believe in, then the roster will be on the right schedule in terms of collective timeline.

While I don't believe Fields will ever take us to a Superbowl, I do believe that we could win one despite Eberflus, but I dont think he gives us any edge in that. I think having a head coach who brings a competitive advantage to the table is a huge upside, and that's a lost opportunity we have just whiffed on. All in the name of one extra year of coaching salary. Ugh.

If Waldron is a genius and the rookie QB is the real deal, perhaps it will all work. But then Waldron's gone to be a HC somewhere. And all youve still got for coaching is a vanilla run of the mill defensive playcaller who makes tons of mistakes in situational football.

So I also think it's likely that Eberflus wont be around in a couple years. If Waldron is good and Poles has the balls to do it, he could fire Eberflus and promote Waldron and keep continuity. That's probably the only way to keep from the OTHER scenario.

And the OTHER scenario is the one we've seen over and over - a new Head Coach and offense for a QB in their 2nd or 3rd year AGAIN. And THAT IS the clown show.

And yet, if we draft Caleb Williams, and he can ball out and survive a coaching change, then maybe we can finally get out of this pit of despair that we've inhabited for decades.

So your chart, and all this ends up with: the most important thing in the NFL is a franchise QB, and if you get that right you can survive anything else.

And if we keep Fields, and we dont get to the promised land, then maybe we trade or cut him after next year along with an Eberflus firing. That could synchronize the QB and HC, but that foolish adventure will have cost us an extra year of Sweat's window for nothing, and there is no guarantee that we'll have the draft capital to get a franchise QB at #1 without mortgaging the farm going forward.

We really should have fired Eberflus this year, and we had really better draft a top rookie QB.

This - to me the data showed one thing - that you need to find that stud at QB.  Without that - you need to keep trying. You can scratch out a good year every now and than - but if you don't have a top 5-7 QB - you are not going to be a consistent power.  If you have that guy - you may have ebs and flows - but you are going to consistently win and make the playoffs and thus have a shot at making a run in the post-season and getting to the big game.  

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

On your Flus comment - one question would be cause vs. correlation. We saw Beli become human as soon as Brady left.  Who knows what Payton is without Brees.  But the reality is - GB had multiple coaches in that timeframe - why did they stay great - cause of Aaron Rodgers.  Basically didn't matter who the HC was - GB's down seasons almost always correlated to Rodgers getting hurt.  

well Belichick did innovate a lot on defense, and as different skill players came in and out around Brady, Belichick changed the style of the offense year to year to fit with what he had. He also wasnt afraid to trade good players before the last years of their deals to keep young talent in the pipeline and keep the cap healthy. So while I wont say that Eberflus keeps us from going to the Superbowl, i dont think he gives us any edge in that, and that's a lost opportunity.
 

5 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

This - to me the data showed one thing - that you need to find that stud at QB.  Without that - you need to keep trying. You can scratch out a good year every now and than - but if you don't have a top 5-7 QB - you are not going to be a consistent power.  If you have that guy - you may have ebs and flows - but you are going to consistently win and make the playoffs and thus have a shot at making a run in the post-season and getting to the big game.  

Yes, this is everything. It's why trading down to get a ton of picks to build around Justin is a flawed strategy. A chance at a franchise QB is worth more than 3 first rounders of draft value.
 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

15 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

well Belichick did innovate a lot on defense, and as different skill players came in and out around Brady, Belichick changed the style of the offense year to year to fit with what he had. He also wasnt afraid to trade good players before the last years of their deals to keep young talent in the pipeline and keep the cap healthy. So while I wont say that Eberflus keeps us from going to the Superbowl, i dont think he gives us any edge in that, and that's a lost opportunity.
 

Yes, this is everything. It's why trading down to get a ton of picks to build around Justin is a flawed strategy. A chance at a franchise QB is worth more than 3 first rounders of draft value.
 

Beliceck the coach is outstanding. Beli the GM is horrendous. I Think I read that it had been 10 YEARS since they signed a draft pick to a 2nd contract. That isn't because they are trading people early - that is because they literally haven't drafted any blue chip players in, well, forever.  

The bright side is - if Flus blows up - the Bears could always hire a Beli or Vrabel next cycle if they wanted to (cause it seems like neither of them will get HC gigs).  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

17 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

well Belichick did innovate a lot on defense, and as different skill players came in and out around Brady, Belichick changed the style of the offense year to year to fit with what he had. He also wasnt afraid to trade good players before the last years of their deals to keep young talent in the pipeline and keep the cap healthy. So while I wont say that Eberflus keeps us from going to the Superbowl, i dont think he gives us any edge in that, and that's a lost opportunity.
 

Yes, this is everything. It's why trading down to get a ton of picks to build around Justin is a flawed strategy. A chance at a franchise QB is worth more than 3 first rounders of draft value.
 

I'd put 1000 to 1 odds that the Bears are staying at 1 and taking a QB.  Barring the top QB's all having massive off the field scandals or something else that makes them undraftable - the Bears are going to pick a QB at 1 and move on from Justin.  Justin will go somewhere else and be a solid starter and he certainly might even become better than that. He could be the type of guy that if you are patient he'll continue to make strides and eventually have some seasons where he is a top 10 QB.  But I also currently have him as a Bottom 10 QB, so that is probably where my view differs from the keep Justin crowd. 

I think he's 3 years in - he is bottom 10 - do I think he can improve - absolutely, he just has such strong leadership, physical traits, and work ethic, that he will 100% continue to improve. I Just think that puts him in the 10-20 category and you don't build around that type of guy, no matter how great the work ethic.  

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I'd put 1000 to 1 odds that the Bears are staying at 1 and taking a QB.

theyd better!

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

So I saw a thread on Twitter on how SB winning teams have never had a QB that took more than 15% of the cap in any year to date. Which is odd considering most of the SBs were won by Brady, Roethlisberger, Mahomes, and Flacco over the last 20 years. 

So I looked back to year 2000 to see what were the top 10 teams in terms of winning pct, how many HC's they had, how many different leading QBs they had, playoff appearances, SB appearances, and SB wins.

The Bears were 21st over this span with a 181-206 record, which is sad. 

So what stands out below is the top of the top teams have had the same HC or only 1-2 over the last 20+ years. Secondly, over that same time, most of them had only 4-5 QBs over that same span, which is impressive. The best teams made it to the playoffs 2/3 of the time. Besides NE, even the next few teams had 3 SB appearances in that span (once every 8 years), and a few other teams won multiple.

This is why hitting on the HC and QB are critical. Do we have the right HC for a long term to get the Bears back to the SB? Is Fields the QB that is going to spend the next decade plus with an extended playoff run?

Looking at this, I think they made a mistake with Flus, but didn't want to fire him and have to pay two HCs. I think they are going to be doubly wrong if they think Fields is the guy to build around, but at the same time, if they draft a QB, then fire Flus, we are back at the clown cycle.

You are a loser until you become a winner. Teams that win SBs  have  many more strengths than just a great QB. Usually they have upscale coaches, player development, a great supporting cast. Usually a good a D, usually a good OL. Great QBs don't come around every draft, lots of experts tell you how good QBs are every year but most are not.

Recent history since Mahomes came into the league ( he wasn't considered exceptional). Watson ( nah), Josh Allen(probably)  but he hasn't won any SBs yet. Tua ( nope), Lawrence ( nope) , Burrows, tier 1 , ( no SBs), Herbert ( maybe but  no SBs), . The point is their is only a handful of great QBs ever that have won SBs. Lots of not great QBs have also. Stafford, Eli Manning, Nick Foles. 

Now tell me who the next great QB is, and I will tell  you (you should play the lottery.). 

[BearFan PHX]

Knowing that you need a franchise QB for real and long term success isnt the same thing as knowing who that player will be.

The idea that you dont need a franchise QB to be a Superbowl winner because they are hard to identify doesnt add up. It's two different things.

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Knowing that you need a franchise QB for real and long term success isnt the same thing as knowing who that player will be.

The idea that you dont need a franchise QB to be a Superbowl winner because they are hard to identify doesnt add up. It's two different things

No where do I say you don't need a Franchise QB to win a SB. I make the point it's not only  with a Franchise QB is why SBs are won. They are hard to find and some are won without them. Its not one or the other, it's about all the factors involved.

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

No where do I say you don't need a Franchise QB to win a SB. I make the point it's not only  with a Franchise QB is why SBs are won. They are hard to find and some are won without them. Its not one or the other, it's about all the factors involved.

 

 

I wish you were the GM of the Packers.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I wish you were the GM of the Packers.

Thank you, I never thought I would ever get a compliment from you before.

[killakrzydav]

I'll book at bet DaBears