Big Board Consensus 2024

[adam]

So I was looking back as far as the 2017 draft to see where QBs were slotted on the Draft Big Boards prior to the drafts. This one site takes a collection of most major big boards on the internet and collates them into a consensus board. I really like this as it takes out some biases and other factors. Some big boards are BPA, others are sort of slotted like their projected draft positions.

It makes me sick that the Bears drafted Trubisky, AND traded up for him no less. On the Consensus Big Board for 2017, Trubisky was ranked 13th, Watson was 15th, and Mahomes was 22nd (which is crazy looking back). Myles Garrett was #1. Looking back at the most accurate draft projections, basically the top 5 mocks had Jamal Adams, Solomon Thomas, or Jonathan Allen going to the Bears, not Trubisky. On predicted a trade with Cleveland, where Cleveland drafts #1 and take Garrett, then trades with the Bears to move up to take Trubisky at #3. The Bears move back to #12 and get Watson. That would've crazy. 

In 2018, the highest QB was Sam Darnold at #3. #1 was Saquon Barkley.

In 2019, Josh Allen was #3 with Nick Bosa being #1. 

In 2020, Joe Burrow was #2 with Jeff Okudah being #1

In 2021, Trevor Lawrence was #1, Fields was #4 and the 3rd QB.

In 2022, Malik Willis was #14, with Aidan Hutchinson at #1.

In 2023, Bryce Young was #1, Stroud was #3 behind Anderson. 

Currently Caleb Williams is #1 with Maye at #3, and somewhat surprising to me, Daniels at #5. 

 

 

Here is the link, you can see all the drafts here:

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024

[Pixote]

Great Site, Thanks for the link.

I don't know if we have enough forum members who are active posters to pull this idea off, but let me throw something out to be considered. What if we all ranked players in the different roster positions to be drafted this year? Then, with that info, we would create our own big board for the Bears draft room. It would need to be updated with the latest info gathered from the combine, so the final board wouldn't be set until after we found out how they performed at the combine, the latest rumors, and what Poles does in FA.

Also, if we did this, who would be game to lead the project? I do not know the NCAAF players declaring for the draft since I watch very few college games. It would give us a focal point to kill time waiting for the draft, and maybe, cross my fingers, distract from the petty squabbling going on.

Just a thought.

 

[BearFan PHX]

31 minutes ago, Pixote said:

distract from the petty squabbling going on.

OK. I think complaining about people disagreeing about JF is squabbling too. YOu keep acting like because we dont share your view, that we must be jerks and were fighting.

Dude, its YOU thats fighting everytime you say that. Yesterday you posted a whole thing about how Im closed minded and just hate Justin and that's what motivates me.

I KNOW JF is a bust. That's not rude or mean. Stop trying to pretend it is.

I've had it with the personal attacks. Im not gonna just sit by while you act like youre the teacher and anyone that disagrees with you is some kind of baby that needs a scolding. Cut it out.

Stinger does nothing but personally attack people. That I actually fought back is your problem. Im not the only one he does this to either and you know it. And since you keep jumping into it, youre one of the participants, not the referee. So stop pretending youre the good guy.

Justin Fields doesnt need anyone here to protect his feelings. This is sports talk.It's perfectly fine to say that he is a bust.

I write long specific posts about facts and theories about FOOTBALL, you choose not to read them because you say they are too long, and then pretend that it's just fighting. Stop it.

For example, this post wouldnt even exist if you hadn't brought it up. That was your choice. Either dont do it, or dont be surprised if it gets an answer.

Sheesh.

This whole Justin Fields thing has gotten insane. And not just here, but all across the internet. Justin fans are just SO butthurt their guy didnt pan out. Well he didnt. Deal with it. Its not OUR fault that he didnt develop. Were not bad people because he didnt. Learn how to lose an argument with grace would ya?

[BearFan PHX]

Lets just move on to choosing Justins replacement. That is nothing but opinion, and no one has 3 years of failed NFL tape to be sure about anything. Im sure not sure about any of the prospects in this draft. We could just talk about it like men.

[Pixote]

I can't believe you are saying that I am attacking you.

I've had enough.

I will return, but not until after the draft (at the earliest).

That is, if this forum survives.

[BearFan PHX]

All Im saying is you alternate between complaining about the fighting, and then yesterday, being a full participant. Then today youre the voice of reason above again.

And its ALL silly. All we have to do is talk about football. I respond, but Im not out there making purely personal posts. I mostly talk about film, and Justin's shortcomings etc.

Then when someone like Stinger says some personal nonsense, then i expose the illogic in the arguments.

I would call that debating. Go read the posts. I mostly say stuff is stupid when i think it is. Im not calling people names out of the blue. Im either talking football or saying that arguments are illogical, or saying "dont be personal"

And Im done pretending otherwise. If ANYone has a disagreement with me, thats awesome fun. I love debating. No one here has to pull any punches about how they disagree with me about football. That never upsets me.

But when you start trying to discredit some fact Ive posted based on "Im just a hater" or some other thing that isnt about xcoverages, or film, or Justin's timing, but about my personal psychology - well its ridiculous. And I think Im being misunderstood here too - Im not "mad" steam isnt pouring out of my ears when i type these things. Read them again with more of a tone of "ugh this is SO dumb bleh" and youll hear it the way Im writing it. I may be frustrated, but Im not angry. Not at all.

I think you might be mistaking me destroying moronic arguments about Fields for being mean. Im not mean. Im just winning on that subject too much.

So please, bring whatever football facts, corrections etc. None of that makes me mad.

The only thing that would make me mad was if we brought back Justin and didnt draft a rookie QB. Then Id be mad. And not at anyone here.

P.S. I have no dogmatic ideas about any other QB candidates. After I've done my work I might have a favorite, or many favorites. I might think someone sucks. But I wont have 3 years of NFL tape on them. I will know that I dont KNOW anything about who will do what in the NFL.

It's just Justin. We're so far past the decision point, and the people who dont see it cant understnad why the people that do are SO over it. It aint ego - it's a year too late already. The experiment has been over for a while. Its CRAZY.

 

[Stinger226]

6 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I can't believe you are saying that I am attacking you.

I've had enough.

I will return, but not until after the draft (at the earliest).

That is, if this forum survives.

 

56 minutes ago, Pixote said:

Great Site, Thanks for the link.

I don't know if we have enough forum members who are active posters to pull this idea off, but let me throw something out to be considered. What if we all ranked players in the different roster positions to be drafted this year? Then, with that info, we would create our own big board for the Bears draft room. It would need to be updated with the latest info gathered from the combine, so the final board wouldn't be set until after we found out how they performed at the combine, the latest rumors, and what Poles does in FA.

Also, if we did this, who would be game to lead the project? I do not know the NCAAF players declaring for the draft since I watch very few college games. It would give us a focal point to kill time waiting for the draft, and maybe, cross my fingers, distract from the petty squabbling going on.

Just a thought.

 

Great idea, don't go anywhere. Everyone knows how I feel, I don't need to stick up for Justin anymore, a lot of members of the media do that for me. So until after free agency, no need to get involved in QB discussions anymore. I'm getting ready to go to Thailand, but ill  still try to get the bears big board concept initiated. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

Great Site, Thanks for the link.

I don't know if we have enough forum members who are active posters to pull this idea off, but let me throw something out to be considered. What if we all ranked players in the different roster positions to be drafted this year? Then, with that info, we would create our own big board for the Bears draft room. It would need to be updated with the latest info gathered from the combine, so the final board wouldn't be set until after we found out how they performed at the combine, the latest rumors, and what Poles does in FA.

Also, if we did this, who would be game to lead the project? I do not know the NCAAF players declaring for the draft since I watch very few college games. It would give us a focal point to kill time waiting for the draft, and maybe, cross my fingers, distract from the petty squabbling going on.

Just a thought.

 

Pix,

We can definitely do that, like we have in the past with our collective mock drafts where a few of us had different teams and then over the course of a month, each of us made our pick up to 32. 

I think we could easily do a top 15 Big Board, which should include 2 new Bears in 2024. 

[Mongo3451]

BearfanPHX, you are out of line.  You'll always be a brother, but I honestly think you need a time out. (Whether it's self imposed or from an admin) Nobody is our has been attacking you.  The chip on the shoulder has become too big.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

BearfanPHX, you are out of line.  You'll always be a brother, but I honestly think you need a time out. (Whether it's self imposed or from an admin) Nobody is our has been attacking you.  The chip on the shoulder has become too big.

Thanks. He attacked me yesterday, not today. Today he was saying that he didnt like the fighting, which i thought was hypocrticial since he was part of it yesterday.

But I dont think I need a timeout. I think we should ALL just keep our comments to football.

Specifically, that I dont hate Justin, or have a personality flaw that is the reason why I think we have to move on from him. If people stopped saying that, then I wouldnt have to keep saying i dont hate Justin, and Im not attacking him.

I also think it depends on the tone of voice you read the writing in. if you read it angry it will sound that way, but Im not angry. Read it more rolling of eyes, and then youll hear what Im actually saying here?

[BearFan PHX]

One other point to help explain.

I am not sitting here angry thinking people are attacking me.

I am debating football, and people make arguments, and some of the arguments are pointed at my character, and Im not mad about THAT either! Im just saying, that's not a good argument, and not why Fields sucks.

Im not feeling attacked and fighting - Im just saying "thats a bad argument" and "thats an adhoc attack so its not a good argument" thats all Im not like seething that anyone would say that i hate Justin, Im just saying thats not a good argument.

[Mongo3451]

10 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Thanks. He attacked me yesterday, not today. Today he was saying that he didnt like the fighting, which i thought was hypocrticial since he was part of it yesterday.

But I dont think I need a timeout. I think we should ALL just keep our comments to football.

Specifically, that I dont hate Justin, or have a personality flaw that is the reason why I think we have to move on from him. If people stopped saying that, then I wouldnt have to keep saying i dont hate Justin, and Im not attacking him.

I also think it depends on the tone of voice you read the writing in. if you read it angry it will sound that way, but Im not angry. Read it more rolling of eyes, and then youll hear what Im actually saying here?

Sorry, but I've been here for twenty plus years and Pix is the Dom of this site.  He's never beefed with anyone.  You seem to have problems with anyone that you interpret as a threat.  It's you that needs to dial it down.  Nobody wants the animosity.

[BearFan PHX]

Dude, Im not beefing with him, he was scolding me yesterday saying that the only reason I feel like i do about Justin is that Im a hater and have it out for Justin. And we had very nice interactions at the same minutes on other threads. Im not looking to antagonize him at all.

And it didnt make me "mad," but it was an ad hoc attack, so i said so, just to rebut the point, not because my honor was offended or anything weird like that.

Then today hes all "oh the fighting" and i thought that was hypocritical, since he was just doing it yesterday. Fighting passive aggressively is still fighting. And I want it to stop as much as you do!

What you dont know is I wrote a really nice letter to him a couple weeks ago. He read it, but didnt respond. And hes been saying whatever about me since. So I dunno, hes mad at me, and being passive aggressive about it.

I always got along well with him here too - at least 15 years. probably a lot more, from the old site. Its all because Im TOO sure of myself about Justin Fields. It's offending people obviously. But that's crap. I'm not trying to talk about anything except criticisms of where we disagree about football.

And it all comes because he didnt like what happened with Stinger. Ok I get that. I still would have done what I did. But I'm not trying to keep any of this alive. Once we get past Fields, Im not even sure of anything. Nothing I write on any it is so sure of myself or anything. No one can predict what will happen with the rookie QBs.

I'll tell ya what. I wont comment back about any personal comments for 24 hours. Ill talk about football, but ill give anyone that needs to say whatever nasty thing they want to about me 24 hours to do it and I wont ever respond to anything they say during that time. I'll give everyone the last word. And then, please lets get back to just critiquing me on film or stats or whatever.

 

[Stinger226]

If Williams ends up being the dude, you are getting massive offers for the #1 pick. If its Washington, there exists the possibility of another trade down for #2. So many teams need QBs, there may be another trade back. Multi 1 st rounds future pcks, multi 2nd round picks this year plus maybe getting players back. The question, does anyone think Poles passes up that kind of team building haul from someone that wants to build thru the draft. I know, do you?

[adam]

25 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If Williams ends up being the dude, you are getting massive offers for the #1 pick. If its Washington, there exists the possibility of another trade down for #2. So many teams need QBs, there may be another trade back. Multi 1 st rounds future pcks, multi 2nd round picks this year plus maybe getting players back. The question, does anyone think Poles passes up that kind of team building haul from someone that wants to build thru the draft. I know, do you?

Here is my take on that. If you have 3+ teams offering you massive hauls for #1, you keep the pick. That many teams are reinforcing their belief in Williams. If you only have Washington, or maybe one other desperate team, then you take the best offer and trade down for the haul because just because CAR was willing to offer a haul for Bryce Young doesn't mean he was worth that much.

So simply put:

1. Draft Williams if 3+ teams are offering massive hauls.
2. Trade #1 pick for haul if only one or two teams have offers in for #1.

Then whatever they do next will be determined by what they did first. I think if they trade the #1 pick, and it's to WAS, and they only move to #2. There is a chance that Poles will trade back a 2nd time (if they are rolling with JF1) and end up with multiple 2nd rounders in 2024, and multiple 1sts in 2025. That would be insane. 3 2025 1st rounders!

[adam]

My Top 15 Bears Big Board (with notes):

1. Caleb Williams, QB (no-brainer, if Bears are drafting #1, you pick CW)
2. Marvin Harrison Jr, WR (if the Bears trade down and they are not drafting a QB, MHJ has to be #1 on their big board)
3. Drake Maye, QB (If they Bears trade down and are still looking for a QB, he would be the pick over MHJ)
4. Malik Nabers, WR (If the Bears trade down and the top 3 are gone, it's between him and Brock Bowers for me, but WR2 is such a hole)
5. Brock Bowers, TE (He is neck and neck with Nabers, I may switch this after the combine)
6. Rome Odunze, WR (If the top 5 are gone, you take Odunze)
7. Dallas Turner, Edge (When those top 6 are gone with maybe Daniels, I could see the Bears moving back, but if available, I would go Turner)
8. Laiatu Latu, Edge (If Turner is gone, Latu is next)
9. Joe Alt, OT (Right now he is my first pick at OT, which is more of a luxury pick as an upgrade, not filling a huge hole)
10. Jared Verse, Edge (If the other 2 Edge are gone, after Alt, I would go back to fill the Edge need with BPA)
11. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT (If the 3x Edge are gone and Alt, then it is Fashanu time)
12. JerZhan Newton, DL (He would be my first DT right here, depending on combine, he may move up)
13. J.C. Lathan, OT (Last OT before the skill level drops off a little, would drop if JJ is not signed as need for CB would be greater)
14. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB (Dependent on JJ status, but more of a luxury pick if JJ is signed, he may go up if JJ is not signed, or down if he is)
15. Brian Thomas Jr, WR (He would jump ahead of McKinstry if JJ is signed, but not higher as this time.

This is through a Bears lens assuming the guys above them are gone. I am really trying to stick to QB, WR, TE, Edge, DL but it's hard when their are elite talents at OT and CB sitting there. With 2 picks, the Bears can maybe afford to go with a luxury pick at OT (sliding Jones to swing tackle) or CB and having him compete with Stevenson or filling JJs spot. Did I miss anyone? 

Thoughts?

[CrackerDog]

12 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Sorry, but I've been here for twenty plus years and Pix is the Dom of this site.  He's never beefed with anyone.

Amen brother 

[Daventry]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

If Williams ends up being the dude, you are getting massive offers for the #1 pick. If its Washington, there exists the possibility of another trade down for #2. So many teams need QBs, there may be another trade back. Multi 1 st rounds future pcks, multi 2nd round picks this year plus maybe getting players back. The question, does anyone think Poles passes up that kind of team building haul from someone that wants to build thru the draft. I know, do you?

You know what?  If Poles thinks Williams is on par with Mahomes, you think he will pass on him?  No way

[Stinger226]

10 hours ago, adam said:

Here is my take on that. If you have 3+ teams offering you massive hauls for #1, you keep the pick. That many teams are reinforcing their belief in Williams. If you only have Washington, or maybe one other desperate team, then you take the best offer and trade down for the haul because just because CAR was willing to offer a haul for Bryce Young doesn't mean he was worth that much.

So simply put:

1. Draft Williams if 3+ teams are offering massive hauls.
2. Trade #1 pick for haul if only one or two teams have offers in for #1.

Then whatever they do next will be determined by what they did first. I think if they trade the #1 pick, and it's to WAS, and they only move to #2. There is a chance that Poles will trade back a 2nd time (if they are rolling with JF1) and end up with multiple 2nd rounders in 2024, and multiple 1sts in 2025. That would be insane. 3 2025 1st rounders!

Option  with just one trade and get MHJ, good option.

[Stinger226]

 He will take him   but he has several options with that pick. It all has to do with his evaluation process, if he passes the character test, yes. If there's any questions he may view  a haul of draft capital as the better choice. Its not a given that he's the generaltional QB, experts get QBs wrong all the time . The year Mahomes got drafted, no one thought he was that, and the experts from ESPN said DeShone Kizer was the dude. Its difficult to find NFL QBs.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

48 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

 He will take him   but he has several options with that pick. It all has to do with his evaluation process, if he passes the character test, yes. If there's any questions he may view  a haul of draft capital as the better choice. Its not a given that he's the generaltional QB, experts get QBs wrong all the time . The year Mahomes got drafted, no one thought he was that, and the experts from ESPN said DeShone Kizer was the dude. Its difficult to find NFL QBs.

I was on the Kizer wagon back then. I do recall stating Mahomes has family pro sports bloodlines and he would have an edge knowing how to prepare.

[adam]

Kizer had 695 passing attempts and only played football for 2 seasons. That was all hype because of Notre Dame. For college he even had a pedestrian TD:INT ratio of 47-19 and averaged only 232 yds/g. That translates to 180 some yards per game in the NFL and fringe NFL backup, especially with so few reps in college. He had bust written all over him.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Kizer had 695 passing attempts and only played football for 2 seasons. That was all hype because of Notre Dame. For college he even had a pedestrian TD:INT ratio of 47-19 and averaged only 232 yds/g. That translates to 180 some yards per game in the NFL and fringe NFL backup, especially with so few reps in college. He had bust written all over him.

I agree with that but some experts claimed  him to be the best of the year, not special but it just shows you , they make bad judgements and the only evaluation that matters is the one Poles does.  

[Stinger226]

21 hours ago, adam said:

My Top 15 Bears Big Board (with notes):

1. Caleb Williams, QB (no-brainer, if Bears are drafting #1, you pick CW)
2. Marvin Harrison Jr, WR (if the Bears trade down and they are not drafting a QB, MHJ has to be #1 on their big board)
3. Drake Maye, QB (If they Bears trade down and are still looking for a QB, he would be the pick over MHJ)
4. Malik Nabers, WR (If the Bears trade down and the top 3 are gone, it's between him and Brock Bowers for me, but WR2 is such a hole)
5. Brock Bowers, TE (He is neck and neck with Nabers, I may switch this after the combine)
6. Rome Odunze, WR (If the top 5 are gone, you take Odunze)
7. Dallas Turner, Edge (When those top 6 are gone with maybe Daniels, I could see the Bears moving back, but if available, I would go Turner)
8. Laiatu Latu, Edge (If Turner is gone, Latu is next)
9. Joe Alt, OT (Right now he is my first pick at OT, which is more of a luxury pick as an upgrade, not filling a huge hole)
10. Jared Verse, Edge (If the other 2 Edge are gone, after Alt, I would go back to fill the Edge need with BPA)
11. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT (If the 3x Edge are gone and Alt, then it is Fashanu time)
12. JerZhan Newton, DL (He would be my first DT right here, depending on combine, he may move up)
13. J.C. Lathan, OT (Last OT before the skill level drops off a little, would drop if JJ is not signed as need for CB would be greater)
14. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB (Dependent on JJ status, but more of a luxury pick if JJ is signed, he may go up if JJ is not signed, or down if he is)
15. Brian Thomas Jr, WR (He would jump ahead of McKinstry if JJ is signed, but not higher as this time.

This is through a Bears lens assuming the guys above them are gone. I am really trying to stick to QB, WR, TE, Edge, DL but it's hard when their are elite talents at OT and CB sitting there. With 2 picks, the Bears can maybe afford to go with a luxury pick at OT (sliding Jones to swing tackle) or CB and having him compete with Stevenson or filling JJs spot. Did I miss anyone? 

Thoughts?

I think Maye probably is farther down the list. He had a great junior year but his senior season had a lot of stinkers in it. Daniels only had one great year , other years were not special. MT only had one very good year of which a lot of college QBs do . It comes down to risk factor, CW is the only one with special put on him. It will come down to character issues if Poles doesnt take him, he not taking a QB just for sake of change. 

The OTs are rated high and deserve to be but dont think they will be on Poles list. Braxton got better last year, had many penalties but only gave up two sacks. Dont think he goes there with so many other special players rated high.

I think the rest of the list is spot on. I think he picks weapons or DL with his high picks after he figures out the QB question. S and OC will come later after the first round.