jason Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Einstein: Quote 'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. ' John Fox 2015 - Cutler lacks protection, we all hate Fox John Fox 2016 - Cutler lacks protection, we all hate Fox John Fox 2017 (Lame Duck Year) - Trubisky drafted Matt Nagy 2018 - Trubisky lacks protection, defense is amazing, makes Nagy look smart Matt Nagy 2019 - Trubisky lacks protection, defense regresses, Nagy not so smart Matt Nagy 2020 - Trubisky lacks protection, defense stays average, Nagy still not smart Matt Nagy 2021 (Lame Duck Year) - Fields drafted Matt Eberflus 2022 - Fields lacks protection, but shows some potential for greatness, we side-eye Eberflus Matt Eberflus 2023 - Fields lacks protection, and is neutered, we already hate Eberflus Matt Eberflus 2024 (Lame Duck Year) - ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 12 hours ago, jason said: Matt Eberflus 2024 (Lame Duck Year) - ??? This where we differ. I don't believe Flus is a lame duck. And the OL is almost there. What's really crazy, is that I think we win 11 with keeping Justin and 10 with Williams or Maye. 2025 ⚡??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 it's both. You need a great QB, and you need to protect him. And ideally, you build the line first, but I dont see where we are likely to have a choice of QB like we do now. Wright is looking great. Between Jenkins and Davis you have like 1.25 good starting OGs. So add another OG to the mix to compete and eventually replace one. We will absolutely address center this year. So are we talking about another OT? If we draft Williams and then an OT with pick #9 then that's not still insane is it? So maybe the argument should be "not upgrading the OL would be insane" and I dont think youre wrong about that at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said: What's really crazy, is that I think we win 11 with keeping Justin and 10 with Williams or Maye. 2025 Color me intrigued. ❓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said: This where we differ. I don't believe Flus is a lame duck. And the OL is almost there. What's really crazy, is that I think we win 11 with keeping Justin and 10 with Williams or Maye. 2025 ⚡??? I think there is a difference: Jay Cutler - Bears mortgaged the farm for him (multiple picks) and than never invested in oline. I guess Chris Williams was probably in that era - but in general never invested. Trubisky - Bears traded up - but didn't mortgage the future. Never developed legitimate weapons around him and never made large investments in oline. 2023 - BEARS decided NOT to take a QB and instead continued to invest in the future - despite having #1 pick. 2024 - Bears DO NOT need to mortgage any future. They are literally sitting at 1 and have another pick at 9. Last year instead of taking the QB and restarting than - they actually waited a year so THEY COULD invest more in the core. They added DJ Moore, they added a 1st round tackle (Wright), they signed a guard to a sizeable deal (Davis - that didn't work but it is there) and they have another guard who was a 2nd round draft pick. Center is a weak spot and they could have decided to upgrade from Braxton - but this is NOT a poruous line outside of the disaster at center. They have massive cap space and plenty of draft capital to address the position and if they wanted could even draft a LT at 9 (again - without mortgaging the future). So I actually think the Bears are doing what they haven't done in forever and actually were pragmatic and last year was the start of it and this year they are now positioned to actually have a solid building block. The only caveat is the HC - since he is clearly in middle of his deal and if next year is a disaster he's gone. But the OC is on a fresh deal and is experienced, so even that looks different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Color me intrigued. ❓ We have a week schedule. We will also improve as a team. Football 101 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said: I think there is a difference: Jay Cutler - Bears mortgaged the farm for him (multiple picks) and than never invested in oline. I guess Chris Williams was probably in that era - but in general never invested. Trubisky - Bears traded up - but didn't mortgage the future. Never developed legitimate weapons around him and never made large investments in oline. 2023 - BEARS decided NOT to take a QB and instead continued to invest in the future - despite having #1 pick. 2024 - Bears DO NOT need to mortgage any future. They are literally sitting at 1 and have another pick at 9. Last year instead of taking the QB and restarting than - they actually waited a year so THEY COULD invest more in the core. They added DJ Moore, they added a 1st round tackle (Wright), they signed a guard to a sizeable deal (Davis - that didn't work but it is there) and they have another guard who was a 2nd round draft pick. Center is a weak spot and they could have decided to upgrade from Braxton - but this is NOT a poruous line outside of the disaster at center. They have massive cap space and plenty of draft capital to address the position and if they wanted could even draft a LT at 9 (again - without mortgaging the future). So I actually think the Bears are doing what they haven't done in forever and actually were pragmatic and last year was the start of it and this year they are now positioned to actually have a solid building block. The only caveat is the HC - since he is clearly in middle of his deal and if next year is a disaster he's gone. But the OC is on a fresh deal and is experienced, so even that looks different. well said, good points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 21 hours ago, jason said: Einstein: John Fox 2015 - Cutler lacks protection, we all hate Fox John Fox 2016 - Cutler lacks protection, we all hate Fox John Fox 2017 (Lame Duck Year) - Trubisky drafted Matt Nagy 2018 - Trubisky lacks protection, defense is amazing, makes Nagy look smart Matt Nagy 2019 - Trubisky lacks protection, defense regresses, Nagy not so smart Matt Nagy 2020 - Trubisky lacks protection, defense stays average, Nagy still not smart Matt Nagy 2021 (Lame Duck Year) - Fields drafted Matt Eberflus 2022 - Fields lacks protection, but shows some potential for greatness, we side-eye Eberflus Matt Eberflus 2023 - Fields lacks protection, and is neutered, we already hate Eberflus Matt Eberflus 2024 (Lame Duck Year) - ??? I have seen this mentioned a lot. It feels like it could also be one of those things that has correlation but not causation. So would Trubisky be any different of a QB if drafted in 2016 and Fox had him for 2 years? I highly doubt it. Is Fields better if he was never drafted under Nagy and his first year was under Getsy and Flus? Again, I doubt there would be much of a difference. There have been many posts on the socials pointing out the sack rate with Fields and all other CHI QBs during the same window and Fields has twice as many. Trubisky was a half field read QB. There was a hard ceiling that you could not predict until he got to that point and couldn't improve beyond it. The Bears realized that in 2019 and probably gave Trubisky one too many years to fix it. Fields is very similar, but his is quick reads and MoF throws. He reminds me of a pitcher that can't throw a slider to save his life and has to go back to his bread and butter curve even when a slider is needed. Fields is at or near his ceiling. It seems now that he can only improve by improving everything around him. That is a team that can make the playoffs but will never get beyond one playoff win or so. There are a lot of QBs in that tier. I would say a good portion of the league make up that group. At this point, if you know that, you might as well take your shot while you have it. The Bears roster is too good to finish in the top 5 again, they are trending away from the top 10, so if they are going to get a new QB, it's this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, adam said: At this point, if you know that, you might as well take your shot while you have it. The Bears roster is too good to finish in the top 5 again, they are trending away from the top 10, so if they are going to get a new QB, it's this year And if that other QB turns out a flop? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 8 hours ago, Mongo3451 said: We have a week schedule. We will also improve as a team. Football 101 Sure, but why more wins with Justin than with another QB? More resources around him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 44 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Sure, but why more wins with Justin than with another QB? More resources around him? There it is. Justin in his fourth year is definitely better than a rookie. (Especially with the extra draft capital). Thing is, Justin doesn't get us over the hump like a more special passer. Year two, the special QB shows us why we made the hard choice. Justin already showed us he can't beat Love. Somebody has to... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 4 hours ago, adam said: Fields is very similar, but his is quick reads and MoF throws. He reminds me of a pitcher that can't throw a slider to save his life and has to go back to his bread and butter curve even when a slider is needed. Fields is at or near his ceiling. It seems now that he can only improve by improving everything around him. That is a team that can make the playoffs but will never get beyond one playoff win or so. There are a lot of QBs in that tier. I would say a good portion of the league make up that group. At this point, if you know that, you might as well take your shot while you have it. The Bears roster is too good to finish in the top 5 again, they are trending away from the top 10, so if they are going to get a new QB, it's this year. I think this is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said: There it is. Justin in his fourth year is definitely better than a rookie. (Especially with the extra draft capital). Thing is, Justin doesn't get us over the hump like a more special passer. Year two, the special QB shows us why we made the hard choice. Justin already showed us he can't beat Love. Somebody has to... Im not sure that a rookie wont be better than Justin has been, but I like the way you put this, so even IF the rookie has growing pains by year two it'll be worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 Merril Hoge’s take on Fields vs Williams. At 4:30 mark if it doesn’t start there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 11 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: And if that other QB turns out a flop? At this point, it is the same thing as Fields not improving (like Trubisky), but at least you would have a rookie deal to have the cap space to deal with it. It is an absolute crazy place to be. This is so unique an unprecedented. It is going to take a haul to trade up for Williams, and I wouldn't mind getting the haul if they go that route. I am good if they stick with Fields but unless they get something like this, I think they are going QB: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Merril Hoge’s take on Fields vs Williams. At 4:30 mark if it doesn’t start there. Hoge has been pretty spot on in the past. He really does not like Williams. This is going to be interesting to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 47 minutes ago, adam said: Hoge has been pretty spot on in the past. He really does not like Williams. This is going to be interesting to say the least. I’ve been all in on Williams but I get the logic on moving down one spot for Maye. I did go back and look though - in history of qbs going 1-2 in order - only Donovan McNabb was better. In fact - almost always the 2nd qb in the 1-2 ended up a massive bust (Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf - 2 examples). Wentz was the next best behind McNabb as it related to #1/#2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 44 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said: I’ve been all in on Williams but I get the logic on moving down one spot for Maye. I did go back and look though - in history of qbs going 1-2 in order - only Donovan McNabb was better. In fact - almost always the 2nd qb in the 1-2 ended up a massive bust (Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf - 2 examples). Wentz was the next best behind McNabb as it related to #1/#2 Here is how the selection order of QBs has played out since 2010. I only counted QB1s selected in top 3, then all the remaining QBs in the first round. I listed the teams next to the guys that have not been starter quality yet. Most of those teams were terrible. 12 QBs as QB1 selected in top 3: Bryce Young - CAR Trevor Lawrence Joe Burrow Kyler Murray Baker Mayfield - CLE Jared Goff Jameis Winston - TB Andrew Luck Cam Newton Sam Bradford - STL/LAR Mitchell Trubisky - CHI Blake Bortles - JAX 50% hit rate 12 QB2's Drafted in First Round: C.J. Stroud Zach Wilson - NYJ Carson Wentz - PHI Marcus Mariota - TEN Robert Griffin - WAS Sam Darnold - NYJ Tua Tagovailoa Daniel Jones - NYG Jake Locker - TEN Patrick Mahomes Johnny Manziel - CLE Tim Tebow - DEN 25% hit rate 10 QB3s Drafted in First Round: Trey Lance - SF Anthony Richardson - IND Justin Herbert Josh Allen Ryan Tannehill - MIA Blaine Gabbert - JAX Deshaun Watson Dwayne Haskins - WAS Paxton Lynch - DEN Teddy Bridgewater - MIN 30% hit rate 5 QB4s Drafted in First Round: Josh Rosen - ARZ Justin Fields - CHI Christian Ponder - MIN Brandon Weeden - CLE Jordan Love - GB 0% hit rate 2 QB5s Drafted in First Round: Mac Jones - NE Lamar Jackson 50% hit rate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, adam said: Here is how the selection order of QBs has played out since 2010. I only counted QB1s selected in top 3, then all the remaining QBs in the first round. I listed the teams next to the guys that have not been starter quality yet. Most of those teams were terrible. 12 QBs as QB1 selected in top 3: Bryce Young - CAR Trevor Lawrence Joe Burrow Kyler Murray Baker Mayfield - CLE Jared Goff Jameis Winston - TB Andrew Luck Cam Newton Sam Bradford - STL/LAR Mitchell Trubisky - CHI Blake Bortles - JAX 50% hit rate 12 QB2's Drafted in First Round: C.J. Stroud Zach Wilson - NYJ Carson Wentz - PHI Marcus Mariota - TEN Robert Griffin - WAS Sam Darnold - NYJ Tua Tagovailoa Daniel Jones - NYG Jake Locker - TEN Patrick Mahomes Johnny Manziel - CLE Tim Tebow - DEN 25% hit rate 10 QB3s Drafted in First Round: Trey Lance - SF Anthony Richardson - IND Justin Herbert Josh Allen Ryan Tannehill - MIA Blaine Gabbert - JAX Deshaun Watson Dwayne Haskins - WAS Paxton Lynch - DEN Teddy Bridgewater - MIN 30% hit rate 5 QB4s Drafted in First Round: Josh Rosen - ARZ Justin Fields - CHI Christian Ponder - MIN Brandon Weeden - CLE Jordan Love - GB 0% hit rate 2 QB5s Drafted in First Round: Mac Jones - NE Lamar Jackson 50% hit rate I have questions. Do you mean by QB2 to mean QBs that are selected in the 1st round but #2 overall? And QB5s would be first round but later; Jackson #32 and Jones #15? When you say "hit rate" I would assume to the team they were drafted to? Love could still make the case to be a "hit" for GB as they did make it to the playoffs his first season. Just like Stroud could be considered a "miss" because like Love, although he made the playoffs they were out in early rounds. Richardson (Indy) is still too early to call since his rookie season was derailed by injury. And if you're simply referring to the player, then a case could be made for Mayfield finding a home in TB even though things didn't work out in Cleveland. Similar to Flacco finding a resurgence (but from the draft in 2008 and outside your parameters). Was Goff a "hit" for LA or as the player in Detroit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: I have questions. Do you mean by QB2 to mean QBs that are selected in the 1st round but #2 overall? And QB5s would be first round but later; Jackson #32 and Jones #15? When you say "hit rate" I would assume to the team they were drafted to? Love could still make the case to be a "hit" for GB as they did make it to the playoffs his first season. Just like Stroud could be considered a "miss" because like Love, although he made the playoffs they were out in early rounds. Jackson (Indy) is still too early to call since his rookie season was derailed by injury. And if you're simply referring to the player, then a case could be made for Mayfield finding a home in TB even though things didn't work out in Cleveland. Similar to Flacco finding a resurgence (but from the draft in 2008 and outside your parameters). Was Goff a "hit" for LA or as the player in Detroit? I think he means 2nd QB taken in that draft? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: I have questions. Do you mean by QB2 to mean QBs that are selected in the 1st round but #2 overall? And QB5s would be first round but later; Jackson #32 and Jones #15? When you say "hit rate" I would assume to the team they were drafted to? Love could still make the case to be a "hit" for GB as they did make it to the playoffs his first season. Just like Stroud could be considered a "miss" because like Love, although he made the playoffs they were out in early rounds. Richardson (Indy) is still too early to call since his rookie season was derailed by injury. And if you're simply referring to the player, then a case could be made for Mayfield finding a home in TB even though things didn't work out in Cleveland. Similar to Flacco finding a resurgence (but from the draft in 2008 and outside your parameters). Was Goff a "hit" for LA or as the player in Detroit? Yeah, the draft order instead of their draft pick #. I think it is less relevant that someone was picked at #12 vs being the 2nd QB selected (QB2). Hit rate is success with their drafted team. It is great that Geno and Mayfield have resurrected their careers, but Mayfield is on his 4th team, but has not had "sustained success". Goff got LAR to the Super Bowl, so he counts. For the younger guys, I went off what they have shown to this point. Stroud excelled as a rookie, which is rare. Love is in his 4th year, so he has to show that this year was not a fluke. Richardson has done nothing so far but could change that over time. These are as of today. If you did count Mayfield, then drafting a QB #1 is a no-brainer, that would be 5 out of the last 6, and 7 out of the last 9 if you include Baker. Also, the one out of the 6 is Young, who still could become a decent QB. QB2 is wild, it has Mahomes as the unicorn, Stroud who exceeded a ton of expectations, but a lot of teams had him as QB1. The only other guy in that group is Tua, and he seems very team dependent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 Im nervous as hell about it, but if we draft Caleb and he turns out to be "generational" can you imagine how happy we are all about to be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 Now back to Williams. As far as I can tell, he is the only QB I could find that had a PFF Grade over 90 for his last two seasons + QBR over 80 + 3500 passing yards the last two years + over 40 total TDs the last two years + over 30 passing TDs the last two seasons, and 5 or less INTs the last two seasons. None of the other QBs hit those marks two years straight. Fields didn't either season with his best total being 3,273 passing yds, which should've been a red flag. Burrow didn't do it. Lawrence didn't do it, and Hurts didn't do it. So Williams has had sustained success for 2 full collegiate seasons at a high level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 Another eval: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 I'd be curious how Maye's collegiate stats compare to NFL Top 10 Franchise QBs' collegiate stats. Did his collegiate career stats indicate that, although not as impressive as those of Williams' stats, he could still be a top-tier franchise quarterback? This is crazy. One day, I wake up and feel convinced we absolutely MUST draft Williams at #1. The next day I wake up to decide we MUST trade down to #2, rape Washington for a boatload of picks, and draft Maye. Then I question if we should just maximize trade downs to get as much draft capital as possible and pick up a QB as a wild-card project behind Fields. In other words, I have no idea what we SHOULD do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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