Drafting Williams would be insane

[Alaskan Grizzly]

42 minutes ago, adam said:

If you did count Mayfield, then drafting a QB #1 is a no-brainer, that would be 5 out of the last 6, and 7 out of the last 9 if you include Baker. Also, the one out of the 6 is Young, who still could become a decent QB. 

Was making the playoffs one time a measure for success?  Then if Murray makes it doesn’t Trubiksy?  ??‍♂️
 

Yes I'm being indignant.  Blame Denail Brewing Mother Ale.  And that I tweaked my back a few days ago.  lol.  

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Was making the playoffs one time a measure for success?  Then if Murray makes it doesn’t Trubiksy?  ??‍♂️
 

Yes I'm being indignant.  Blame Denail Brewing Mother Ale.  And that I tweaked my back a few days ago.  lol.  

For Goff, with LA, he had 2x 4600 yard passing seasons, made the PB twice, and had 3 playoff appearance with LA.  6 seasons with a QBR over 50 (4 with LA). 

Murray had 3 straight seasons with 3,700 yards, 2 PBs, and was AP ORoY and had a playoff appearance.  His career QB Rating is 92.2  4 seasons with a QBR over 50. 

Trubisky's best season was 3,223 passing yards and 24 TDs. That would be Goff's 8th best season and Murray's 4th. Mitch had 1 season with a QBR over 50.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Pixote said:

This is crazy. One day, I wake up and feel convinced we absolutely MUST draft Williams at #1.

The next day I wake up to decide we MUST trade down to #2, rape Washington for a boatload of picks, and draft Maye.

I go through this too. If it helps, it's early. in the next couple months there will be a lot to look at on YouTube to help with this.
I think it all hinges on who Caleb Williams is going to be and who Maye, Daniels, and a few others guys are going to be too. The combine will start the hype machine.

But you're right, if Maye (or whoever) is right up there with Williams, then you definitely trade down at least to #2.
But if Williams is a HOFer who will take us to multiple superbowls, then the extra other picks are irrelevant.

I think it's less about draft strategy, and more about player evaluation. And more info is coming on this.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Another eval:

 

Doesnt it feel like there's some huge unsaid secret the press know about Williams but arent saying? Why add "Based on tape study only" - I keep seeing people talking around character concerns, but then I dont hear any actual evidence of it at all. It's almost like theyre afraid theyll get sued if they break the story and cost him millions. Maybe its something stupid like that hes gay or something. That wouldnt bother me, as long as he was a GOAT gay role model and not a victim activist. Or maybe it's a doubt PR campaign from the Redskins hoping to scare us off of him.

I dunno, but these little disclaimers keep popping up, and at least one reporter (I wish i remembered who it was) said there was "unflattering info" that would come out about Williams. I dont think someone would describe being gay as "unflattering" so it's probably something else.

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Doesnt it feel like there's some huge unsaid secret the press know about Williams but arent saying? Why add "Based on tape study only" - I keep seeing people talking around character concerns, but then I dont hear any actual evidence of it at all. It's almost like theyre afraid theyll get sued if they break the story and cost him millions. Maybe its something stupid like that hes gay or something. That wouldnt bother me, as long as he was a GOAT gay role model and not a victim activist. Or maybe it's a doubt PR campaign from the Redskins hoping to scare us off of him.

I dunno, but these little disclaimers keep popping up, and at least one reporter (I wish i remembered who it was) said there was "unflattering info" that would come out about Williams. I dont think someone would describe being gay as "unflattering" so it's probably something else.

It is definitely interesting. It could be they are just hedging their bets. If he is awesome, they can point to their "based on the tape" eval. If he busts, they can say, oh well, my initial eval was not a full assessment, or something along those lines. It is almost like everyone is pulling back from the "generational" thing. 

He is continually liking a bunch of Bears tweets. It could be trolling, but he hasn't done it for other teams.

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, adam said:

It is definitely interesting. It could be they are just hedging their bets. If he is awesome, they can point to their "based on the tape" eval. If he busts, they can say, oh well, my initial eval was not a full assessment, or something along those lines. It is almost like everyone is pulling back from the "generational" thing. 

He is continually liking a bunch of Bears tweets. It could be trolling, but he hasn't done it for other teams.

Yeah it's hard to say. But it does feel like something is up.

Also, it is possible (but this is just a scenario with no proof) that Williams has reached out to Poles about not wanting to be in Chicago, and Poles wouldnt want that known publicly to save face. Maybe that's the big secret? He likes the tweets to save Poles' face, and Poles gets to pretend he wanted the picks and Maye. Or maybe he really does?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Another eval:

 

Bowen is one of the best. Not saying he is the best but he does his homework and isn’t someone who talks to talk or who tries to take shock stances. 

[jason]

23 hours ago, adam said:

Fields is very similar, but his is quick reads and MoF throws. He reminds me of a pitcher that can't throw a slider to save his life and has to go back to his bread and butter curve even when a slider is needed. Fields is at or near his ceiling. It seems now that he can only improve by improving everything around him. That is a team that can make the playoffs but will never get beyond one playoff win or so. There are a lot of QBs in that tier. I would say a good portion of the league make up that group. 

At this point, if you know that, you might as well take your shot while you have it. The Bears roster is too good to finish in the top 5 again, they are trending away from the top 10, so if they are going to get a new QB, it's this year.

This is where I disagree. Fields has had a bad or below average OL his entire time in Chicago. The offensive weapons he has had are arguably worse.

It’s like giving a Julliard trained musician a few strings hooked up to a bowed stick from the backyard: there will be moments of brilliance where you realize his musical genius is far beyond the norm, but ultimately he won’t be able to make incredible music with garbage, and you end up doubting whether or not he actually is as good as everyone says he is.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Doesnt it feel like there's some huge unsaid secret the press know about Williams but arent saying? Why add "Based on tape study only" - I keep seeing people talking around character concerns, but then I dont hear any actual evidence of it at all. It's almost like theyre afraid theyll get sued if they break the story and cost him millions. Maybe its something stupid like that hes gay or something. That wouldnt bother me, as long as he was a GOAT gay role model and not a victim activist. Or maybe it's a doubt PR campaign from the Redskins hoping to scare us off of him.

I dunno, but these little disclaimers keep popping up, and at least one reporter (I wish i remembered who it was) said there was "unflattering info" that would come out about Williams. I dont think someone would describe being gay as "unflattering" so it's probably something else.

Biggs and a few others have basically said there is zero character issues around Caleb. You had some fake twitter people trying to make something up just like those reports of him not wanting to go to Bears.

I know some people with ties at USC - no one has ever said anything negative about Caleb. I’m not saying he is perfect but he took his entire oline to heisman ceremony when he won and was there for the pro bowl game despite not playing (a number of other usc players no showed by the way). 
 

High school and Oklahoma people have nothing bad to say about him. The dude clearly wants to win and everyone says he is ultra ultra competitive and hates losing and really the main knock I have heard validdadted is he is a miserable person to be around in game when the team is struggling cause he is so pissed and wants to will them to win. 
 

I think of Brady and how pissy he might look when he was struggling. He also has the best stats against good teams of all the other qbs. People talk the ND game but the consistent track record is he put up a 140 plus qb rating against top 25 teams and 135 plus rating against top 10 teams (and the sample size of top 10 and 25 teams he played was large). 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Doesnt it feel like there's some huge unsaid secret the press know about Williams but arent saying? Why add "Based on tape study only" - I keep seeing people talking around character concerns, but then I dont hear any actual evidence of it at all. It's almost like theyre afraid theyll get sued if they break the story and cost him millions. Maybe its something stupid like that hes gay or something. That wouldnt bother me, as long as he was a GOAT gay role model and not a victim activist. Or maybe it's a doubt PR campaign from the Redskins hoping to scare us off of him.

I dunno, but these little disclaimers keep popping up, and at least one reporter (I wish i remembered who it was) said there was "unflattering info" that would come out about Williams. I dont think someone would describe being gay as "unflattering" so it's probably something else.

Biggs was talking about the opposite. Gabriel is only guy with real connections who just said one thing would come out about him but also said all the noise around his character was BS. 
 

I presume the one bad thing was related to him being irritable when team struggles. One of his high school coaches talked about it and they said it was one consistent theme - in game - when things get rough - he will get heated and a bit more abrasive cause he wants to win so much and be great. 
 

I actually think that is a plus - I think of Brady, Jordan and Kobe - they had that in game mentality and would will themselves through everything. They weren’t always nice but it was that fierce attitude and focus to be great that drove them to be the best. 

[jason]

8 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Bowen is one of the best. Not saying he is the best but he does his homework and isn’t someone who talks to talk or who tries to take shock stances. 

And his description sounds exactly how people describe Fields. Turns down layups, tries for big plays, extends plays to his detriment. It’s exactly how people characterize Fields, but in the NFL.

Even if those were some of those were Fields faults in college, at least he dominated while in college. Williams lost 5 of his last 6, then bailed on his team for the bowl game.

 

[jason]

10 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I’ve been all in on Williams but I get the logic on moving down one spot for Maye. I did go back and look though - in history of qbs going 1-2 in order - only Donovan McNabb was better. In fact - almost always the 2nd qb in the 1-2 ended up a massive bust (Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf - 2 examples). Wentz was the next best behind McNabb as it related to #1/#2

You were all in on Trubisky too. I hated him, the trade, AND the pick.

None of us are right all the time, and I’ve been wrong a lot, but I trust my gut on this one. Williams is loaded with red flags and is going to be a bust.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

14 minutes ago, jason said:

And his description sounds exactly how people describe Fields. Turns down layups, tries for big plays, extends plays to his detriment. It’s exactly how people characterize Fields, but in the NFL.

Even if those were some of those were Fields faults in college, at least he dominated while in college. Williams lost 5 of his last 6, then bailed on his team for the bowl game.

 

One does with his legs / the other with his arm. I’m good with the one who does it with his arm. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

6 minutes ago, jason said:

You were all in on Trubisky too. I hated him, the trade, AND the pick.

None of us are right all the time, and I’ve been wrong a lot, but I trust my gut on this one. Williams is loaded with red flags and is going to be a bust.

Trubisky wasn’t the guy I wanted to draft - however I was supportive of the GM having the stones to move up and get his guy. I will state his rookie year I thought he was trending to be something special. But he could only read half the field. 
 

Cutler was who I was always all in on. But I thought Mac Jones was a sure thing - not stud - but literally a sure thing starting qb - boy was I wrong. 
 

But you have best track record of any of us - I remember Dak was always your guy and you were right - he ended up damn good given where he was picked. 

[BearFan PHX]

38 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Biggs was talking about the opposite. Gabriel is only guy with real connections who just said one thing would come out about him but also said all the noise around his character was BS. 
 

I presume the one bad thing was related to him being irritable when team struggles. One of his high school coaches talked about it and they said it was one consistent theme - in game - when things get rough - he will get heated and a bit more abrasive cause he wants to win so much and be great. 
 

I actually think that is a plus - I think of Brady, Jordan and Kobe - they had that in game mentality and would will themselves through everything. They weren’t always nice but it was that fierce attitude and focus to be great that drove them to be the best. 

Thank you - you're right i think it was Gabriel.

And if it's being over-competitive, then sign me up. I wanted Harbaugh too, and that guy has a mental illness for winning. I wouldnt want to be his neighbor, but he can coach my team any time.

I dont personally have any issue with him crying  with his mom. I think it's a plus. Also taking his OL to the Heisman ceremony is awesome.

I just wish I knew more about what is going on behind the scenes. It's SOMETHING, maybe a positive as we've said, but i feel like it's something else. Maybe I'll think it's a small thing or dumb, or maybe it's a smokescreen from Washington. Who knows. But there is something not being said , and I just wish I knew what it was!

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Thank you - you're right i think it was Gabriel.

And if it's being over-competitive, then sign me up. I wanted Harbaugh too, and that guy has a mental illness for winning. I wouldnt want to be his neighbor, but he can coach my team any time.

I dont personally have any issue with him crying  with his mom. I think it's a plus. Also taking his OL to the Heisman ceremony is awesome.

I just wish I knew more about what is going on behind the scenes. It's SOMETHING, maybe a positive as we've said, but i feel like it's something else. Maybe I'll think it's a small thing or dumb, or maybe it's a smokescreen from Washington. Who knows. But there is something not being said , and I just wish I knew what it was!

I do think a lot of Caleb stuff is smoke screens to try and create something not there for teams who maybe hope to have a shot at getting him. 

[Pixote]

Every year, it seems a top-ranked prospect has info about some transgression that causes them to be questioned. Often, they drop down the draft boards, costing them millions of dollars. 

Everyone passed on Randy Moss. Minnesota got a bargain.

Who was it that got ripped for parking in a handicap spot? LOL Seriously?

Look how Carter dropped, with the Bears gifting him to Philly (although we got a damn good RT in the process.)

I am still waiting to find out what our DC did to cause him to resign and disappear. I thought something would be leaked by now. 

[BearFan PHX]

33 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I do think a lot of Caleb stuff is smoke screens to try and create something not there for teams who maybe hope to have a shot at getting him. 

could be. I just think it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Pixote said:

Every year, it seems a top-ranked prospect has info about some transgression that causes them to be questioned. Often, they drop down the draft boards, costing them millions of dollars. 

Everyone passed on Randy Moss. Minnesota got a bargain.

Who was it that got ripped for parking in a handicap spot? LOL Seriously?

I am still waiting to find out what our DC did to cause him to resign and disappear. I thought something would be leaked by now. 

yup and Warren Sapp too.

Im also wondering about our DC. The NFL is such a soap opera!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, jason said:

Williams is loaded with red flags and is going to be a bust.

Unfortunately i have to agree with you on this. 
 

I’ll go a step further and say we’ll regret it if we trade away Justin. 

[Daventry]

Were the Bears offensive lines so bad that JF’s performance could be blamed on them for the last three years?

Would a great quarterback really have been as bad as JF the last three years?

 I tend to think that the line didn’t help, but the bulk of the responsibility for JF’s play is on him.  The good/great quarterbacks find a way to succeed.

[adam]

If Williams is going to be a bust, he would be one of the most accomplished busts in NFL history selected at #1. There were huge red flags with recent #1s that were busts or not great. Williams has none of the normal red flags. He doesn't lack experience. He was not a one season wonder. If he comes in shorter than 6'1", then there would be his red flag. The improv stuff he does is what everyone gushes over with Fields, Mahomes, Allen, etc. I honestly would be more concerned with guys with lack of reps. The NFL has shown if you come in with low reps, you have a huge mountain to climb. You have to learn how to drive on the autobahn vs a side road.

Young - The size of a minion, huge red flag or shall I say a small one? To me, he was always undraftable due to his size.
Murray - 1 great season, 2 others less than 700 yards passing, 519 total passing attempts in college. Huge red flag for lack of experience.
Winston - Only played 2 years of QB, 25-18 TD-INT Rate. Super alarming INT ratio, it never changed in the NFL.
Bradford - 1 great season, in his Junior year, injured, only 562 passing yards and they still drafted him #1. An injured QB that keeps getting injured. He was always a huge red flag for injuries. 

So is their a recent #1 pick that came in as accomplished as Williams and ended up as a bust? 72-10 TD-INT ratio in his last two season with 21 additional rushing TDs with 8,170 passing yards over the last two years. He really has been super consistent for a long period of time. PCT: 64.5>66.6>68.6, Y/A: 9.1>9.4>9.4, QB Rating: 169.6>168.5>170.1.  Can anyone show me a QB that was that consistent for 2+ years in college that was a bust in the NFL?

[jason]

13 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Trubisky wasn’t the guy I wanted to draft - however I was supportive of the GM having the stones to move up and get his guy. I will state his rookie year I thought he was trending to be something special. But he could only read half the field. 
 

Cutler was who I was always all in on. But I thought Mac Jones was a sure thing - not stud - but literally a sure thing starting qb - boy was I wrong. 
 

But you have best track record of any of us - I remember Dak was always your guy and you were right - he ended up damn good given where he was picked. 

I won’t say I have the best track record, because I’ve probably missed as many as made, but I truly believe the Bears have continuously mishandled the QB position for decades, and are about to continue the trend if they pick Williams. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

45 minutes ago, jason said:

I won’t say I have the best track record, because I’ve probably missed as many as made, but I truly believe the Bears have continuously mishandled the QB position for decades, and are about to continue the trend if they pick Williams. 

What pieces do they need to end the trend?

I feel most drafted QBs need to come in to a good system like Mahomes, but then you see Stroud go to Hou with a new HC and OC and put up top 5 numbers. I think the Bears need a stud C and another good WR to have the basic pieces. 

Poles has put it out that the only way he budges on the #1 pick is if he is offered a historic haul. He did that last year and teams called.  He will listen again this year and maybe he gets another.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, adam said:

So is their a recent #1 pick that came in as accomplished as Williams and ended up as a bust? 72-10 TD-INT ratio in his last two season with 21 additional rushing TDs with 8,170 passing yards over the last two years.   PCT: 64.5>66.6>68.6, Y/A: 9.1>9.4>9.4, QB Rating: 169.6>168.5>170.1.  He really has been super consistent for a long period of time. Can anyone show me a QB that was that consistent for 2+ years in college that was a bust in the NFL?

Not sure I would consider Justin a "bust" but evidently many do because they want to replace him with Williams: 

Fields collegiate career:  67-9 TD-IN ratio with 19 additional rushing TDs PCT:  69.2<67.2>70.2   Y/A: 8.4>9.2>9.3   QB Rating:  173.7>181.4<175.6 (some of these are better than Caleb’s). 

Taking into consideration (as you pointed out) the COVID shortened 2020 season where he played 8 games (his last year in college)

And here's this (found a post on Reddit from a USC/Bears fan) with stats for their respective last seasons in college:

Baker Mayfield:  285 comp 404 attempts 70.5 comp %   4627 yards 43 TDs 6 INTs   198.9 Rating

Kyler Murray    :  260 comp 377 attempts 69.0 comp %   4361 yards 42 TDs 7 INTs   199.2 Rating

Caleb Williams :  333 comp 500 attempts 66.6 comp %   4537 yards 42 TDs  5 INTs 168.5 Rating (*this was from his second season where he won the Heisman. He actually regressed during this last season). 

What's the common denominator for all three? 

Here's another clue: Miller Moss played in place of Williams during the Holiday Bowl and had 23/33 for 372 yards with 6 TDS and 1 INT

Maybe Moss will be the next "generational talent"?