Odds of what team gets Fields

[Stinger226]

I went to look at the odds ( draftkings) on who ends up with Justin

. I was surprised to see it was the Bears.  +100   Atlanta was at +140 in second. Personally I think Poles keeps Fields and takes the draft haul. ( not trying to argue that point) but I thought odds would be great going somewhere else , it's not.

I'll keep track of the odds, I was going to put my money where my mouth is and bet 100 on him staying. 

[OmahaBear]

That’s interesting, I would have thought it would be somewhere else as the favorite. 

[BearFan PHX]

53 minutes ago, OmahaBear said:

That’s interesting, I would have thought it would be somewhere else as the favorite. 

if the question was Bears or Trade, then Trade would be favored, but in this case, the "Trade" option is split into a bunch of teams, so Bears beats them each, if not in aggregate.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

if the question was Bears or Trade, then Trade would be favored, but in this case, the "Trade" option is split into a bunch of teams, so Bears beats them each, if not in aggregate.

If we stated as (where Fields will be playing this year. ) I just seen a Yahoo story where the odds has changed on draftkings, . I have an account but they won't let me access it from overseas. The most updated version has us at +200 and Pittsburgh with -125 . I googled it and several different betting sites have different odds. 

Some lines are where he will be traded and some bets are where he will be playing in 2024.

[BearFan PHX]

A man cheats on his wife. She finds out. Will she stay with him or leave him? She has 10 other possible boyfriends she knows.

Shes 10% likely to stay with him.
She's 9% likely to leave him for each boyfriend.

so shes 90% leaving him, but he's still the top likely guy she ends up with.

it's because you split up the "leaving him" options into a second question "if she leaves him, who will she go with?"

The Bears are the top destination for Fields, but it is very likely he is not staying in Chicago. See?

If you add up the odds of all the other teams together, you'll see the odds are that he wont be in Chicago next year. Even though Chicago is the highest rated likelihood of all the teams separately.

[adam]

I think since Fields is under contract and still on the team that him staying would always be the most likely option from a betting standpoint since it takes nothing for that to occur. Any other option involves external partners, which is a huge unknown. 

That will change at the combine. If Williams comes in under 6'1", I think the odds of Fields staying increases. If something negative happens with Williams or Maye, Fields odds go up. Conversely, if something positive happens with the QB prospects, Fields odds probably go down. 

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I think since Fields is under contract and still on the team that him staying would always be the most likely option from a betting standpoint since it takes nothing for that to occur. Any other option involves external partners, which is a huge unknown. 

That will change at the combine. If Williams comes in under 6'1", I think the odds of Fields staying increases. If something negative happens with Williams or Maye, Fields odds go up. Conversely, if something positive happens with the QB prospects, Fields odds probably go down. 

The two most important aspects of the combine are the personal interviews and the medicals. If smaller than sold will eliminate a few teams. For Poles that interview will decide everything. Pay attention to his words once that's done. There's no advantage for him committing to a draft pick or keeping Fields.  The more other teams have to guess the more the price goes up but there should be signs. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The two most important aspects of the combine are the personal interviews and the medicals. If smaller than sold will eliminate a few teams. For Poles that interview will decide everything. Pay attention to his words once that's done. There's no advantage for him committing to a draft pick or keeping Fields.  The more other teams have to guess the more the price goes up but there should be signs. 

Oh for sure, I am just thinking they would want to have a trade in place either way coming out of the combine. With the larger than expected salary cap, teams that didn't have money for a new QB may now have the additional space to sign a vet FA where Fields may have been the only low cost option with upside.  If they are trading the #1 pick, it will also be critical to get a trade down before free agency so the Bears know how many picks they will have to work with. 

My assumption is if Fields is traded, they will sign at least one top of the market FA at their position, maybe two. A new 4-yr deal would have zero impact beyond the length of a new QBs rookie deal. 

If they trade #1, I don't think they will go with any really high end guys, or if they do, it's for a max of 2 years.

[killakrzydav]

Went to minus 300 yesterday (Atl)

[adam]

Florio thinks that if Fields doesn't get traded soon that the Bears have positioned themselves for Fields to "ask" for a trade. Then if they get less in return, they can point the finger at the lack of leverage. So we will see. I hope it is nothing less than a 2nd rounder in 2024. 

[killakrzydav]

a second has been offered by Pitt and they declined.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Florio thinks that if Fields doesn't get traded soon that the Bears have positioned themselves for Fields to "ask" for a trade. Then if they get less in return, they can point the finger at the lack of leverage. So we will see. I hope it is nothing less than a 2nd rounder in 2024. 

I do agree - Bears should drive up leverage now - but bird in the hand by later this week is the right move and right thing across all paths.  Especially if we are getting a 2nd - push the price up from there - see if you can get an extra 2nd or a 3rd rounder this year.  

[killakrzydav]

His true value is a 2nd and 3rd. I rather have as may pics in this draft versus next year though. Let finish the defense and offensive line for Daniels or Caleb

[killakrzydav]

up to -450 he's going to Atlanta.  That's almost an 80 percent chance he's a falcon by the odds conversion.

 

[killakrzydav]

Bears are 5th team most likely for Barkley
Bears are 2nd team most likely for Chris Jones (after KC)
Bears are 6th most likely for Josh Jacobs

Edit: Bears are 5th and 6th most likely for Mike Evans and Stephon Diggs.

[killakrzydav]

I'd back up the Brinks for Jones

[Pixote]

6 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

a second has been offered by Pitt and they declined.

I'm curious: where did you hear that Pitt offered a 2nd? I'm not doubting you; I just haven't seen anything on the net, and I have been floating around looking for info on the draft all day.

[killakrzydav]

RealGM. 

 

[killakrzydav]

Also from there:

 

That deal is already done.

Poles JF comments (do right by JF)
JF's podcast comments (unfollows bears, follows falcons players, speaks on Atl talent)
ATL's GM comments (best fit for our city etc.)
Caleb's Chicago comments (idolizing mj, sweetness, deep dish etc.)

[DABEARSDABOMB]

So for the Bears to maximize value - they need 2 teams interested.  I think everyone thought on paper the 2 most likely teams were Steelers & Falcons, but maybe Seahawks, Broncos, Vikings, Pats could be options as well.  Some more likely than others.  Bucs could fit that bill too - if they lose Mayfield. But the predominant favorites seemed to be Falcons & Steelers (this assumes Cousin's stays put).

Is it a surprise that the 2 rumors floating out there right now are Steelers want to stay put at QB and Falcons putting a lot of talk about making a run for Cousin's?  I don't think that is a surprise and presume in the game of NFL off-season chess, these are teams getting word out there to try and play the leverage game and shift leverage in the favor of them (vs. the Bears).  Very curious to see how it plays out - when insiders were reporting Bears could get a 1st rounder - that seemed way too high (at that point why not just draft one of the last top ranked QB's for at least a shot at a 5 year deal - with 4 years on a rookie scale).  When the reports are they could barely get a 3rd - I think that is also too low - I think the high is a 2nd this year followed by a later round pick (say a 3rd or 4th this year or a 3rd next year) and on the lower end I see the inverse - you get a 3rd rounder this year but than a 2nd rounder next year (maybe some conditions applied to it). 

One thing I hadn't thought of is how does Field(s) and his agent play into this.  If I were Field(s), my goal is to get to a franchise that wants me and to be party to facilitate a trade. If this drags out - than the 5th year option is off the table and I run the risk of basically being a one and down guy and at risk of NOT getting a large payday in a year. I wonder if Justin and his agent are open to a Jordan Love type of extension - where a team basically gets him for 3 years at a lower cost (but it guarantees Justin one big payday to set him and his family for life - while also putting him a position, given how young he is, to get a couple massive contracts if he ultimately performs).  

I would also think if you are the Bears - if Fields is open to that - it increases probabilty a team goes out and gets Justin - cause they have a bit more certainty to what they are getting in terms of locking him in for 3 years before paying him.  Takes 2 to tango but I'm curious and if Justin was forward thinking there are a lot of reasons to do this.  

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

So for the Bears to maximize value - they need 2 teams interested.  I think everyone thought on paper the 2 most likely teams were Steelers & Falcons, but maybe Seahawks, Broncos, Vikings, Pats could be options as well.  Some more likely than others.  Bucs could fit that bill too - if they lose Mayfield. But the predominant favorites seemed to be Falcons & Steelers (this assumes Cousin's stays put).

Is it a surprise that the 2 rumors floating out there right now are Steelers want to stay put at QB and Falcons putting a lot of talk about making a run for Cousin's?  I don't think that is a surprise and presume in the game of NFL off-season chess, these are teams getting word out there to try and play the leverage game and shift leverage in the favor of them (vs. the Bears).  Very curious to see how it plays out - when insiders were reporting Bears could get a 1st rounder - that seemed way too high (at that point why not just draft one of the last top ranked QB's for at least a shot at a 5 year deal - with 4 years on a rookie scale).  When the reports are they could barely get a 3rd - I think that is also too low - I think the high is a 2nd this year followed by a later round pick (say a 3rd or 4th this year or a 3rd next year) and on the lower end I see the inverse - you get a 3rd rounder this year but than a 2nd rounder next year (maybe some conditions applied to it). 

One thing I hadn't thought of is how does Field(s) and his agent play into this.  If I were Field(s), my goal is to get to a franchise that wants me and to be party to facilitate a trade. If this drags out - than the 5th year option is off the table and I run the risk of basically being a one and down guy and at risk of NOT getting a large payday in a year. I wonder if Justin and his agent are open to a Jordan Love type of extension - where a team basically gets him for 3 years at a lower cost (but it guarantees Justin one big payday to set him and his family for life - while also putting him a position, given how young he is, to get a couple massive contracts if he ultimately performs).  

I would also think if you are the Bears - if Fields is open to that - it increases probabilty a team goes out and gets Justin - cause they have a bit more certainty to what they are getting in terms of locking him in for 3 years before paying him.  Takes 2 to tango but I'm curious and if Justin was forward thinking there are a lot of reasons to do this.  

good analysis, it all makes sense assuming teams really want him. I think someone will, I hope two someones will.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

good analysis, it all makes sense assuming teams really want him. I think someone will, I hope two someones will.

It also hit me - it behooves Cousin(s) camp to push the Atlanta narrative as well - cause it gives him some more leverage in his negotiations with the Vikings.  I do hope we see Cousin(s) resign with Minnesota sooner vs. later cause I do think that significantly strengthens the Bears leverage. I also think if I were to guess - I guess the Steeler(s) are the team that ultimately pays the price to get Field(s).  I think Atlanta has more optionality given how early they pick in Rnd 1 and they could easily go McCarthy and sign a vet like Mayfield or someone else as a bridge guy.  So if the price gets too high - I could see Atlanta bailing out vs. I think Pittsburgh needs to - but the Bears need to have enough leverage to get them to pay their price tag or get close to it.  

[BearFan PHX]

yup to all of that too

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

It also hit me - it behooves Cousin(s) camp to push the Atlanta narrative as well - cause it gives him some more leverage in his negotiations with the Vikings.  I do hope we see Cousin(s) resign with Minnesota sooner vs. later cause I do think that significantly strengthens the Bears leverage. I also think if I were to guess - I guess the Steeler(s) are the team that ultimately pays the price to get Field(s).  I think Atlanta has more optionality given how early they pick in Rnd 1 and they could easily go McCarthy and sign a vet like Mayfield or someone else as a bridge guy.  So if the price gets too high - I could see Atlanta bailing out vs. I think Pittsburgh needs to - but the Bears need to have enough leverage to get them to pay their price tag or get close to it.  

This is April fools day every day these days. Some rumors may. be true but which ones are ?

[adam]

If they trade Fields, I really hope they at least get a 3rd rounder for him and at least one more pick, even if it is a conditional pick in 2025. The 49ers got a 4th rounder for Lance, so anything less than a 3rd for Fields will be a failure on Poles part.

I am thinking like a 2024 3rd rounder with a conditional 2025 4th rounder that can become a 3rd or 2nd depending on performance/play time, etc.