Yet another Caleb Williams Red Flag

[killakrzydav]

I guess I would rapey Washington for 2, 36, 40, & 67

[Stinger226]

45 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

I guess I would rapey Washington for 2, 36, 40, & 67

I'm buying that. Then you could take any other QB in the draft. Or you could trade to three ( NE doesn't have a QB), and get more capital and choose MHJ or any of the other QBs. Again this is Poles decision and I trust I'm to make the right choice.

[Pixote]

1 hour ago, killakrzydav said:

I guess I would rapey Washington for 2, 36, 40, & 67

Add a 2025 first-rounder to that, and I would agree.

Overpay by use of the chart, I didn't check, but probably yes.

However, this year's #1 competition will reap an overpayment.

[killakrzydav]

Pix, your offer is exactly what I start my drafts with on PFF

[killakrzydav]

Realistically, I want to get more pics in this draft over next years

[BearFan PHX]

I agree that Williams commands a higher price.

Just for info sake, here's the chart breakdown.

Pick #1 is worth 1,000 points

Pick #2   = 717 points
Pick #36 = 104.4 points (821.4 rolling total)
Pick #40 = 96.8 points (918.2 rolling total)
Pick #67 = 58 points (976.2 rolling total)

so Dav could still get 23.8 points just to make it even.

Pick #111 (middle 4th round) is worth 23.9 points

and your right that Williams would command more. I dont think another first would be too much at all in this case.

if it was say, pick #5 (worth 428 points on the year you use it) you'd value it as a round lower, so you'd use 5th pick 2nd round to value it which is only another 102.4 points. Not outrageous at all.

And of course you know, if I was the Commanders and had to pay #2, #36, #40, #67, #111 and next year's first, I'd do it in a heartbeat for Williams, which is why I wouldn't make that trade from our side even with the extra first.

If Williams turns out to be "generational" he'd easily be worth 6 or more first rounders, so what is a 50% shot (lets say) on getting that worth?

[killakrzydav]

Its about 75 players deep

[jason]

On 3/11/2024 at 3:53 PM, BearFan PHX said:

I totally understand you, and you and i both agree on things like how important a good OL is etc. We really are aligned on that.

The only difference we have is that I think it's all exhibition unless you have that world beater QB. I think without one, you can be a playoff team, and possibly sneak into a superbowl victory with a lot of luck, mostly relating to the leagues world beater QB not making it that year, but unless youve got that guy at QB, you're not realistically in the hunt.

And I think most years there just isnt one available. And every now and then one does come along, and usually your team isn't in position to get them.

But right now, we have a shot at one. Now I cant say he IS one of course, i agree with you again there, but I think he has a good chance to be one, and so you gotta take a swing at it.

 

None of that defeats anything you say about building a roster either, although I think Poles is well on his way to that, and by September you might even be happy with the state of the offensive roster too. I expect another free agent OL, and either a stud LT or a stud WR (or Bowers) with the #9 pick. probably an interior rookie OL to compete with what we've got too.

We added a running back today too, so the 2024 Bears QB should have a lot of support.

 

 

That’s all fair, but I just don’t think it’s a sure enough bet to go for Williams. He has numerous red flags, his teammates apparently didn’t like him, he was significantly worse against good competition, he held the ball longer than Fields, his teams didn’t win in a weak ass PAC12, he often ignores his check downs for home run balls, multiple people think the LSU kid is better, the “experts” and “pundits” aren’t in unison on him, and I hate the idea of starting over yet again.

Mark my words: If the Bears draft Williams, the overall team morale will suffer because the locker room wants Fields (shades of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson), his development will be hampered by a horrible pass-blocking OL, he will underperform, the HC will get fired, they’ll burn through a window where FA talent wants to come to Chicago, that will lead to a drop in team quality, and the Bears will be back in this same position in 2027.

[ParkerBear7]

On 3/11/2024 at 9:29 AM, BearFan PHX said:

the problem is that its a recipe for mediocrity.

youre saying instead of swinging for a big win, you want to swing a bunch of smaller times, some will miss and some will hit - so you have a better chance of not losing it all, but you also have a lesser chance of winning big.

It's like buying every lottery ticket, you cant lose, but you spent so much to buy them all that you dont win either.

When you take all the risk out, you end up with a more likely middle outcome.

We have a shot at a top QB, which is everything int he NFL, and because it's not a 100% shot, you want to buy insurance and lose a chance at winning.

So the question is, in the NFL, is it better to reliably go 9-8, or is it better to try to win a superbowl?

Come on PHX;

Let it go already..  We get the point that you think Caleb Williams is the next Mahomes by your anointment.  

Most of us here will support whomever lines up under center for the Bears at QB.  Truth, the last Bears QB I’ve been excited for prior to Justin was Jay Cutler.  The Bears have been in shambles since they lost but should have won the Superbowl against the Colts in Miami. 

Many of us are trying to be quietly and patiently optimistic here. If Poles draft Caleb so be it, but I stand by my statement that the Bears don’t have to trade Fields away even if the plan is to draft another QB this year. 

I’d be fine with Mayes, Nix, McCarthy or Williams whichever way Poles decides is best for building a perennial winner in Chicago!

RYAN POLES is not Ryan PACE and may be the best GM Bears had since Jim Finks!

Ryan PACE swung for the fences and we see how that turned out!!! Mitchell freaking Trubisky!  

What if Pace traded down he still could have taken Mitch but would have likely landed several other good players still with the team!  

At this point, we all have dug into our positions and not going to change until either Poles makes a move and trade Fields or until Draft day 2024!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

20 minutes ago, ParkerBear7 said:

I’d be fine with Mayes

Only issue I have with what you said is this; mostly because he's Trubisky 2.0 (In my mind) ---and Mongo wants him.  ?

Otherwise...all well said.  

[ParkerBear7]

3 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Only issue I have with what you said is this; mostly because he's Trubisky 2.0 (In my mind) ---and Mongo wants him.  ?

Otherwise...all well said.  

lol

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ParkerBear7 said:

Come on PHX;

Let it go already..  We get the point that you think Caleb Williams is the next Mahomes by your anointment. 

no one should let go of what they believe. Why would they? I dont expect you to either. So im baffled why you think I should.

Also, Caleb Williams has never heard of me. He is not great because I say so. Two months ago I had never even seen him play. It's not because I say it that it's true, it's that its true and now I say it because i have watched the tape and it's easy to see.

But if you think Caleb is a bust for some reason, thats an opinion for sure. But the statistical argument you tried to make is just incorrect. Tell me why you dont like Caleb, and thats cool. I might disagree but i cant predict the future.

But I can say the statistical argument you were making was wrong though - even if Caleb is a bust the stats still say he is a better chance at being great than a 2nd rounder would.

[ParkerBear7]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

But if you think Caleb is a bust for some reason, thats an opinion for sure. But the statistical argument you tried to make is just incorrect. Tell me why you dont like Caleb, and thats cool. I might disagree but i cant predict the future.

But I can say the statistical argument you were making was wrong though - even if Caleb is a bust the stats still say he is a better chance at being great than a 2nd rounder would.

I never said that I think Caleb is a bust? In fact I clearly stated that I will support whichever way Poles goes on QB.  

I’m not changing my position on the narrative “Bears must trade Fields” before drafting a top QB prospect because they don’t.  Bears still have a 5th year option to decide on by May 24th and that’s it!  “Iron sharpens Iron” and when Poles says he wants to do right by Justin there is so much to potentially take from that statement.

For some it could mean find a good trade partner and landing spot for Fields. However, has anyone considered maybe Poles is referring to how he gutted the team right away which was both necessary and the right thing!  However that also created a bad situation for Justin to succeed. Maybe Poles is actually dedicated to providing those roster upgrades now so that he can give Justin a fair evaluation before deciding his fate???

I’ve always stated the Bears have failed their past QBs by not providing enough weapons or protection and offense scheme built for them to succeed.  Seems to me that Poles is trying to rectify these past atrocities!

Exactly What statistical analysis am I wrong on? Don’t think I even provided one?

PHX, When I say “let it go” I’m referring to your relentless “trolling” when someone post something that goes against your “all in” approach on Williams.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stinger226]

Doing right by him  is trying to get him traded where he may want to go. Or keeping him as his QB.

[killakrzydav]

Maye is a bust.  Id bet big on that.

[killakrzydav]

Doing right by JF is giving him a proper line and weapons to maximize his potential

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:

I never said that I think Caleb is a bust? In fact I clearly stated that I will support whichever way Poles goes on QB.  

I’m not changing my position on the narrative “Bears must trade Fields” before drafting a top QB prospect because they don’t.  Bears still have a 5th year option to decide on by May 24th and that’s it!  “Iron sharpens Iron” and when Poles says he wants to do right by Justin there is so much to potentially take from that statement.

For some it could mean find a good trade partner and landing spot for Fields. However, has anyone considered maybe Poles is referring to how he gutted the team right away which was both necessary and the right thing!  However that also created a bad situation for Justin to succeed. Maybe Poles is actually dedicated to providing those roster upgrades now so that he can give Justin a fair evaluation before deciding his fate???

I’ve always stated the Bears have failed their past QBs by not providing enough weapons or protection and offense scheme built for them to succeed.  Seems to me that Poles is trying to rectify these past atrocities!

Exactly What statistical analysis am I wrong on? Don’t think I even provided one?

PHX, When I say “let it go” I’m referring to your relentless “trolling” when someone post something that goes against your “all in” approach on Williams.

I'm not trolling, I'm participating in the discussion. I think the pro Justin crowd is so sure they're right that when I disagree it's seen as somehow wrong or antisocial - but I think that's projection.

There's nothing wrong with thinking what I think, and i don't think I need to stop or let it go or anything else.

You say you will support any QB under center - It's the offseason - I'm saying I want a GOOD one, not just any one.

As for the statistical arguments, if you didnt make it, then my apologies - my point has been that people are doing the math incorrectly and using it to support arguments that are not correct logically. (edit - I scrolled back, you quoted my rebuttal to a statistical argument and said let it go, so thats why im saying the statistical argument is wrong)

That doesnt mean there arent logical ways to like or dislike Williams. People can look at the film, and think whatever they like.

But for example, saying only 2 #1 picks won multiple superbowls, and the rest were won by NON #1 picks implies that NON #1 picks each have a higher chance to win multiple superbowls, and while it is true that more NON #1 picks have won more superbowls, the error is that the odds of any single NON #1 pick winning a superbowl is much lower than any #1 single #1 pick.

Meaning there have been many more NON #1 picks that never won a superbowl.

So IF the question is "would you rather have Caleb or every other QB in the draft?" then you might have a point. Having 30 QBs to develop would probably give you the best chance to find greatness. But that isn't the question. The question is Caleb or ONE of the other QBs.

You cant say "Brady, the best ever, was a 6th round pick, so 6th round QBs have the best chance to become great, so I'm only gonna pick QBs in the 6th round"

All rookie QBs have a chance to be a bust - it's always a gamble. That's true. But the chances of a QB succeeding increase the higher they are chosen. And not because you chose them higher - you cant choose a crap QB #1 and make him great because you drafted him 4 rounds early, but because you have 32 teams all doing homework, and they tend to identify the better prospects and take them earlier.

Anyone who has been in gym class choosing teams knows the better athletes get picked first. It's obvious of course.

And some years a #1 QB is a much better prospect than others. Williams is an excellent prospect - better than any in a long time. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but there is such thing as a more LIKELY good outcome. And that is Caleb for sure.

So, as per usual, Ive laid out a logical and substantive argument here. Doesnt mean Im always right, but it's kind of the opposite of trolling.

[BearFan PHX]

52 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

Maye is a bust.  Id bet big on that.

He has his problems for sure. His accuracy for one, and that intangible leadership quality to take a team on your back in the 4th quarter might be another. So from where he is today, youre probably right.

He's young though and has physical tools and does read defenses, so there is reason to think he might develop into something, but until you see it on the field, it's always an unknown I agree.

[killakrzydav]

Gentlemans bet he's worse than Fields?

[BearFan PHX]

36 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

Gentlemans bet he's worse than Fields?

Well I love the idea of bets, but I don't actually disagree with you. Im just saying the book isnt over on Maye, but if I had to bet, I don't think he OR Daniels are NFL quality. But they will each get their chance to grow. Fields got his, and we agree he didnt grow into the position.

In this last year or so my thoughts about QBs have really changed. I think now that most of the league is playing exhibition football to sell tickets and merch, but most teams have zero chance of winning a superbowl, and a handful only have a chance if incredible luck happens.

There are probably less than five teams each year that actually have a superbowl run in their own hands, and they always have excellent QB play.

Most QBs in the league, and in the draft each year, are never going to win a superbowl.

Looking back I now realize that most years, our Bears have had no chance whatsoever of winning a SB. Is it fun to root for incremental progress and a playoff appearance? I get that, but it's like you're hoping the best five teams get the flu so you can stand tall with the trophy in your arms. But if you do that, are you a champion? or did you just get lucky and feed on some crumbs when the champions were too full to finish the meal?

Justin has experience. Right now Justin is better than Maye and Daniels. And that's a sad state for anyone starting any of them. At least Daniels and Maye have a chance to grow, but I wouldn't bet big on any of them at this point.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

But for example, saying only 2 #1 picks won multiple superbowls, and the rest were won by NON #1 picks implies that NON #1 picks each have a higher chance to win multiple superbowls, and while it is true that more NON #1 picks have won more superbowls, the error is that the odds of any single NON #1 pick winning a superbowl is much lower than any #1 single #1 pick.

Meaning there have been many more NON #1 picks that never won a superbowl.

To be clear, the odds of #1 overall picks at QB winning the Super Bowl (multiple or not) is less than any other player not chosen #1 overall.  … at least in the last 25 years.  
 

Add in only two QBs that have won the Heisman have played in and won the Super Bowl.  
 

And in the case of Williams (who regressed his last year - the year after getting the Heisman) had essentially the same stats his two years in the PAC-12 as did Nix and his two years there. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

To be clear, the odds of #1 overall picks at QB winning the Super Bowl (multiple or not) is less than any other player not chosen #1 overall.  … at least in the last 25 years. 

No, what youre proving is:

the odds of #1 pick QBs winning the Super Bowl is less than **ALL** other players not chosen #1 overall, not **ANY**

thats the whole point. You dont get to draft ALL the non #1 QBs and add them together. You can only draft ONE, and the odds of any SINGLE NON #1 drafted QB winning a superbowl is MUCH lower than any SINGLE #1 QB pick.

You cant take only the best out of every non #1 pick and put them all together into a single frankenstein stat - that's what I'm saying.

Maybe Daniels or Maye will have a better NFL career than Caleb - but from right here the odds are better that Williams will have a better career - and thats why if given the choice a team would pick Williams #1 and not one of the others.

Hypothetically, let's say these are the odds of a player becoming great in the NFL (I will exaggerate the numbers to make the point, these arent real numbers):

Williams 60%
Daniels 20%
Maye 20%
McCarthy 20%
Nix 20%
Penix 20%

If you could draft Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix AND Penix, then you'd have a much better chance of getting a great QB than if you draft only Williams. The odds are, on average, one of those players would be great, whereas Williams only has a 60% to be great.

20% + 20% + 20% + 20% + 20% = 100%
and
100% is 160% better than 60%

That's what your stat is proving.

BUT if you can only draft ONE of those guys, then Williams has a 300% greater chance to be great than any of the others alone.

60% is 300% better than 20%

That's why you cant do the stats the way youre doing them and then come to the conclusion that youre better off drafting a QB lower in the first round. And if you think about it, why would lower picks be more likely to be great? It wouldnt make sense, because it doesnt.

In other words, youre not factoring in all the lower picks that DIDNT win a superbowl in your numbers.

Does that make sense?}

Oh and I'll also say that I havent done any homework on Nix, so while I can say that Williams has a very good chance to be NFL great based on the film I've seen, I cant say Nix doesnt also have the same or better chance. I don't have any kind of educated opinion on Nix.

 

[jason]

On 3/11/2024 at 8:11 PM, killakrzydav said:

I guess I would rapey Washington for 2, 36, 40, & 67

YEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSS

[Mongo3451]

39 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

To be clear, the odds of #1 overall picks at QB winning the Super Bowl (multiple or not) is less than any other player not chosen #1 overall.  … at least in the last 25 years.  

That's not odds.  It's merely a percentage based on flawed math.  I can guarantee that Caleb Williams has the best QB odds to win a Superbowl out of this class.

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's not odds.  It's merely a percentage based on flawed math.  I can guarantee that Caleb Williams has the best QB odds to win a Superbowl out of this class.

right, I just laid out the statistical error above, hopefully clearly enough for everyone to see what I mean?