Yet another Caleb Williams Red Flag

[adam]

18 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Someone needs to actually measure the guy

6'1 1/8th.

Something I always found funny about the height argument is, why don't they measure to the center of their eye level? That is what really matters. Some dudes don't have foreheads, but fiveheads, and even though they are 6'3" they have the sightline of a guy an inch and a half shorter. The other part of this equation when passing is their knee bend and posture. Jalen Hurts makes himself smaller with his little squat thing. I remember Brees always had his head up to squeeze every inch out of his sight picture. 

I understand for all other positions, but QB seems like sight height is more relevant than actual height.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

17 minutes ago, adam said:

6'1 1/8th.

Speaking of Drew Brees and his ‘height challenge’, this puts Williams a whole 1 and 1/8” taller than Brees who was measured as 6’0”.  

[killakrzydav]

Also, MHJ did exactly the same thing but there isn't a narrative about him. I wonder why?

 

[killakrzydav]

His dad isn't his agent. He is slotted at a 10 percent raise of last years overall pick. He can't get more or less. 1200000.  You want to give away that much free money or naw"?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

45 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

Also, MHJ did exactly the same thing but there isn't a narrative about him. I wonder why?

 

Probably because he’s not a QB prospect.  A lot more investment (not just money ) involved . Mostly like ‘face of the franchise’ stuff to consider . 

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, adam said:

6'1 1/8th.

Something I always found funny about the height argument is, why don't they measure to the center of their eye level? That is what really matters. Some dudes don't have foreheads, but fiveheads, and even though they are 6'3" they have the sightline of a guy an inch and a half shorter. The other part of this equation when passing is their knee bend and posture. Jalen Hurts makes himself smaller with his little squat thing. I remember Brees always had his head up to squeeze every inch out of his sight picture. 

I understand for all other positions, but QB seems like sight height is more relevant than actual height.

 

yup thanks glad to see hes not shorter. that checks that box for me

[adam]

This is Waldron with Williams from 2017: 

 

[BearFan PHX]

One of Calebs strengths, and you can see it clearly in that clip adam, is how fast his release is. His throwing motion is so compact, it reminds me of Dan Marino. You don't see many QBs ever with a faster release.

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

One of Calebs strengths, and you can see it clearly in that clip adam, is how fast his release is. His throwing motion is so compact, it reminds me of Dan Marino. You don't see many QBs ever with a faster release.

and that was from 7 years ago lol.

[BearFan PHX]

To the idea that Williams doesnt want to go to Chicago:

If that were true, then some scenario would be communicating that to Chicago, and being picked #2 to Washington. If that was a scenario he'd like, then he wouldnt have answered this way.

I see an arrogant ubercompetitor. If he is able to dominate in the NFL, then this feels Jordan-esque. If he fails, then it will be sheer arrogance. But if he can back it up, you can see a GOAT int he making with this attitude. It sounds like how Brady talks.

Julian Edelman tells a story of how he went to Brady's house in the spring of some year, and he went down into Brady's home gym. On the wall was a date and location. Edelman asked, "what's that?" and Brady told him "thats the time and place of the superbowl this year and we are going to win it." At the time I think they had 3 rings. Maybe is was four? Anyway Edelman says "we got you, we're gonna get that you ring, you're gonna beat Montana" And Brady got visibly angry and serious and looked Edelman in the eye and said "Im not trying to beat Montana. I'm going for Jordan"

Guys we may not be used to it, but Bears passing greatness may be right in our grasp.
 

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, adam said:

and that was from 7 years ago lol.

yup. its all over his film. once he decides to throw the ball, it's already out.

[Mongo3451]

9 hours ago, adam said:

Something I always found funny about the height argument is, why don't they measure to the center of their eye level?

It should be that, plus release point.  I would argue that Drew Brees has a higher release point than Justin, while being 3 inches shorter.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

This is Waldron with Williams from 2017: 

 

Justin doesn't look any differently throwing the ball than Williams does. Small sample size. He can throw short quick passes or a longer throwing motion, it depends on the route their running.

To watch the video you just click on Watch on YouTube.

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

It should be that, plus release point.  I would argue that Drew Brees has a higher release point than Justin, while being 3 inches shorter.

for sure, because JF is always squatting. i dont know why, Im SURE they tried to coach him out of that, but he still does it all the time.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Justin doesn't look any differently throwing the ball than Williams does.

Nah, Justin has one of the slowest releases I've ever seen in an NFL QB and Caleb has one of the quickest I've ever seen at any level.

Justin pats the ball before he throws and delivers with a large arm motion.

Caleb's wrist doesn't even seemingly separate from his shoulder. He has a freakishly tight and fast delivery.

They are on totally opposite ends of the spectrum, and it's OK if you don't see it, it takes a trained eye for sure, but it means you aren't able to really watch the tape in an analytically meaningful way. They are each on totally different ends of the extreme - couldn't be more different.

And this doesn't even address decision making in getting the ball out in tempo or anything - this is just the mechanical delivery. Add in Justin's troubles with that, and it's even worse in terms of the ball arriving on schedule.

And watch Justin's butt, he squats down before and as he throws too - all these things slowing the play down, and robbing him of strength. Watch Caleb throw - he stands TALL in the pocket, with an elongated spine and the time between when he starts to throw and the ball is out is as fast as anyone who ever did it. This is why they call him generational and he gets comparisons to Marino.

Remember, Marino was the only QB to beat the '85 Bears, and it was precisely because even as we blitzed everyone, Marino was able to get the ball out of his hands before they got to him, unlike every other QB they faced that year. Sure it's about fast decision making and all that, but it's also about just how fast and COMPACT the throwing motion is.

JF is a B level NFL starter at best, Caleb Williams has traits that could project to be one of the best ever.

[Pixote]

Sorry, I don't see the comparison between Marino's release and Caleb Williams.

There are countless articles from some very reliable sources stating his release time was over 3 sec, which is JF all over again.

Don't get me wrong. If we draft Caleb, I will be his biggest fan. I pray if we do draft him, we can get Odunze @ #9

That saying, we need to lock in the FA Center from Denver. We need a proven vet to anchor the line.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Pixote said:

Sorry, I don't see the comparison between Marino's release and Caleb Williams.

There are countless articles from some very reliable sources stating his release time was over 3 sec, which is JF all over again.

Don't get me wrong. If we draft Caleb, I will be his biggest fan. I pray if we do draft him, we can get Odunze @ #9

That saying, we need to lock in the FA Center from Denver. We need a proven vet to anchor the line.

It seems like you only read the first sentence i wrote and misunderstood me.

You're talking about time to throw, not his release. I'm saying his actual physical release. The way his arms moves when he throws - compact, no wasted movement. Once he decides to begin his throwing motion, the ball comes out faster than almost anyone I've seen, and it looks like Marino.

Let's say that at the same moment both Caleb and Justin decide to throw the ball to a WR. The ball is out of Caleb's hands so fast after that, while Justin still has to sit his butt down (why? I dont know), then pat the ball and then finally throw the ball with his wrist way over his ear and a slow large circular throwing motion.

Caleb doesn't squat (whatever the hell that is that JF is doing) he keeps his spine straight and tall, and his throwing motion is much more compact with his wrist much lower and a lot less time to get the ball out.

That's a quick release.

The articles you're citing, aren't talking about his release. They're talking about time to throw, holding the ball. And that was because Caleb was looking for longer routes and homes runs, not because he couldn't read defenses in rhythm.

I understand there are certain "common knowledge narratives" in the press, but if you actually look at the film, it's all there to see pretty clearly. Caleb absolutely goes through reads quickly and can get the ball out fast with a low TTT when the play calls for it. I've seen him do it on film dozens of times.

Caleb is nothing like Fields. They're VERY different. And the more Im watching, the more I think we are about to get a Hall of Famer. If you think Caleb and Fields are similar, you're gonna feel dumb when Caleb starts to ascend in ways Fields never could.

It is potentially like Michael Jordan coming to Chicago and youre saying "he's just another mediocre player like the one we got rid of" I think that's gonna be actually embarrassing in hind sight. We are finally getting our QB in Chicago for the first time in EVER, and you're totally missing it!

 

[BearFan PHX]

I'm, watching all 22 tape, not TV broadcast. Good games and bad ones. Complete games, not highlight reels.

What I see in his fast release isn't something that I read about in an article anywhere. It's just what my own eyes tell me. it jumps off the screen.

But now that you've challenged it, I did a quick search, and here are some quotes (and again, i didn't read these first, I just watched the tape)
 

"Extremely quick release, especially on underneath throws. Allows for him to get the ball to his receivers in positions where they can pick up yards after the catch."
"Processes the game at a very high level for a player coming out of college. There are dozens of instances on film where he rapidly gets through full-field reads to find the open man in structure."

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/article/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-usc-qb-caleb-williams-226484868/


"Twitchy release helps generate heat on drive throws."
"Rapid-fire transition from fake to throw on RPOs."

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/caleb-williams/32005749-4c17-6897-a516-9754023602e6


"Williams has a clean, quick and, most importantly, repeatable throwing motion"

https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-what-makes-caleb-williams-a-special-nfl-draft-prospect-and-why-he-compares-to-a-legendary-qb-045029042.html

Sportswriters read stats like TTT and then make up these insane narratives. Then other sportswriters read them and echo them. All you have to do is watch some all 22 games. Then you can see for yourself, and you'd agree with me. It's not rocket science, you just gotta look at it instead of reading some article.
 

[BearFan PHX]

Watching more film, and I think at this point it's time to stop worrying about Caleb Williams, and time to start worrying whether the Bears will screw this up, or whether Waldron is gonna make it work.

Caleb is everything he needs to be. I've seen enough. If they don't screw him up, this is gonna be the most important Bears player in a LONG time. And if he wins four superbowls, he's gonna be the #1 Bear over Butkis and Payton too. Get excited for what's possible now. We have a real shot at having a legend.

[adam]

Every QB has things they do good and bad. What I do like about Williams is, he really works on his craft as a QB. He was on PFT PM Podcast talking to Florio and Simms and he was going over his grip position, his base, and that he continually hones his craft as a QB. He said he is continually working at things to improve on which is nice to hear. He might end up a bust, but I have rarely heard that kind of discussion for the big 1st round busts like Manziel and Russell. 

At this point, the discussion should shift to what the Bears are going to do at #9 and what type of compensation they are going to get for Fields. I honestly think they tried to keep Fields value up as long as they could but once teams got to meet with Williams, the charade was over. I could be totally wrong and they announce that they are trading the pick, but I would be absolutely shocked if they didn't pick Williams at #1. 

[Pixote]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Watching more film, and I think at this point it's time to stop worrying about Caleb Williams, and time to start worrying whether the Bears will screw this up, or whether Waldron is gonna make it work.

Caleb is everything he needs to be. I've seen enough. If they don't screw him up, this is gonna be the most important Bears player in a LONG time. And if he wins four superbowls, he's gonna be the #1 Bear over Butkis and Payton too. Get excited for what's possible now. We have a real shot at having a legend.

Good Grief, I Sure Hope You Are Right!

Question, does it matter if the QB has the quickest release of all 32 starting QBs if in turn he takes more time than any of the 32 starting QBs to decide who to throw to? Can the athleticism that allowed him to evade, like a magician, college defensive pass rushers to give him time to play hero ball, the vast majority of whom will never see an NFL field without buying a ticket, translate well against the likes of elite NFL sack demons? Or will he be another Fran Tarkenton (who never won a SB)?

And yes, he played hero ball out of necessity. Habits are hard to break. Surely we have the QB guru to help him develop those amazing skills? That amazing athleticism. But let me ask one more question. How many times have we declared all our QB needed was a QB Whisperer to work with him in the offseason to correct mistakes in his footwork, arm motion, etc... And how many times did they fail?

I guess I am a bit snake bit, ready for the next sure fire QB to wear a Bears Uni to disappoint us.

All of that said, Again I say, I will be excited if we draft Williams so that he can prove my concerns were just that of an old Bears' fan who cannot shake the memories of seasons past.

 

 

 

[Mongo3451]

I tried to catch a vibe with Caleb yesterday.  He made an appearance for about an hour.  I watched as he walked around.  It seemed like like he was in his in own little world, completely unaffected by the limelight of fans yelling at him and reporters seeking attention.  He simply sauntered around, occasionally smiling up at the crowd.  Honestly, he reminded me of a guy enjoying a beautiful day in the park.

Oddly enough, Drake Maye was the complete opposite.  He was hanging with players and coaches and watching every drill and test.  He was completely oblivious to the crowd.  His entire being was locked in on what the rest of his peers were doing.

Both had a confident look about them.  Maye looked like a guy on the grind, while Williams looked at peace.

[Pixote]

I can understand the two QBs having different takes on the combine.

The Bears may very well draft Williams; if not, whoever trades a King's ransom to get our #1 pick certainly will. So Caleb should be confident he will be the first pick in this year's draft and reap the rewards for such a distinction.

On the other hand, Maye was once considered an equal to Caleb, but now some think Daniels will be the 2nd QB off the board, and several other QBs are moving up in round one. So I am sure Maye is concerned about being that guy sitting in the room with all of the other top-ranked players, waiting for his name to be called as he slides down the ladder.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, Pixote said:

Good Grief, I Sure Hope You Are Right!

Question, does it matter if the QB has the quickest release of all 32 starting QBs if in turn he takes more time than any of the 32 starting QBs to decide who to throw to? Can the athleticism that allowed him to evade, like a magician, college defensive pass rushers to give him time to play hero ball, the vast majority of whom will never see an NFL field without buying a ticket, translate well against the likes of elite NFL sack demons? Or will he be another Fran Tarkenton (who never won a SB)?

And yes, he played hero ball out of necessity. Habits are hard to break. Surely we have the QB guru to help him develop those amazing skills? That amazing athleticism. But let me ask one more question. How many times have we declared all our QB needed was a QB Whisperer to work with him in the offseason to correct mistakes in his footwork, arm motion, etc... And how many times did they fail?

I guess I am a bit snake bit, ready for the next sure fire QB to wear a Bears Uni to disappoint us.

All of that said, Again I say, I will be excited if we draft Williams so that he can prove my concerns were just that of an old Bears' fan who cannot shake the memories of seasons past.

 

 

 

There was a deep dive done a week or so ago…I got to find the link. It talked about how long Williams held the ball and how the analytics person was very concerned. 
 

He than broke it down to how often he holds to pass and how much time he creates. It turns out the most comparable college player to Williams from TTT and effective scramble time was Aaron Rodgers.

Both Rodgers and Williams had an ability over multiple seasons to move around in and around the pocket and buy far more time to make down field passing plays. 
 

When they took splits further they realized Williams standard deviaition is extreme - he has tons of plays with low TTT but than when he does scramble he buys more time than anyone to throw. It goes back to - he isn’t fields. Who had similar TTT but standard deviaition was extremely high TTT and it was a lot of unforced rushes and created pressures. 
 

Williams might bust but I really only see him busting due to injury. I think he is going to be a solid NFL starter with high end upside. Not going to say he is the next Mahomes or Brady cause well that just isn’t fair. 

And this stupid stuff about his dad. Have you seen his dad in front of the media on all the combine stuff this weekend? I haven’t seen him all over tv or anything just some nasty media people doing what they do…kind of like that nasty report a few years ago that implied Fields was lazy. 
 

His dad is involved and engaged but he isn’t this dope a lot on here make him out to be. The Lavar Ball comps are nuts - that guy was everywhere and anywhere overstepping his son. Carl is the opposite - he is engaged but behind the scenes and doing what he thinks is best for his son. Never have I got this view it is all about Carl - with Lavar it was always all about him. 
 

That toxicity is from teams trying to do anything to push a narrative to get what they want. Like all this no Bears talk - guarantee that was from other teams in draft pushing a bias to see if they could make it a thing. When you here Caleb talk - you don’t here one drop of it. He just wants to be a top pick and be great. Is he arrogant - yes but so is every all time great qb. 

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Pixote said:

Good Grief, I Sure Hope You Are Right!

me too! I cant say that Williams is going to be a Brady Mahomes type, but I can say it looks like there is a good chance he can be. And that is very exciting.
 

4 hours ago, Pixote said:

Question, does it matter if the QB has the quickest release of all 32 starting QBs if in turn he takes more time than any of the 32 starting QBs to decide who to throw to?

The thing is, while there are many examples on film of him holding the ball waiting for substandard receivers to get open, or just looking for the deeper routes, there are alos LOTS of examples on film of him processing and getting the ball out quickly. He's not another Justin. Like DABEARS says, his average may be similar to Justin's, but his standard deviation is high. That means sometimes he is holding the ball much longer than Justin did, and other times it's coming out fast. So unlike Justin who had problems reading defenses and rarely showed throws in schedule, Caleb has a ton of examples of him reading and throwing quickly. He throws with anticipation, and leads receivers well too for YAC.

Caleb doesnt have processing issues, and once he does decide to throw, the throwing motion is compact and efficient. It's very impressive.
 

4 hours ago, Pixote said:

And yes, he played hero ball out of necessity. Habits are hard to break. Surely we have the QB guru to help him develop those amazing skills? That amazing athleticism. But let me ask one more question. How many times have we declared all our QB needed was a QB Whisperer to work with him in the offseason to correct mistakes in his footwork, arm motion, etc... And how many times did they fail?

So his arm motion is already great. His footwork is pretty good, but when it isnt, his accuracy is still great because of his arm strength. Like Mahomes, he can throw accurately off platform. Caleb doesnt need a lot of QB whispering, he just needs to be told to take what the defense gives him more often. And its not like he struggles with that - there are myriad examples of him doing it on tape.

 

4 hours ago, Pixote said:

I guess I am a bit snake bit, ready for the next sure fire QB to wear a Bears Uni to disappoint us.

All of that said, Again I say, I will be excited if we draft Williams so that he can prove my concerns were just that of an old Bears' fan who cannot shake the memories of seasons past.

for sure, we all are. Until yesterday I had a nagging negative feeling about Caleb. It wasnt based on anything, i thin it's just what you're saying here. But i watched more film and his interviews yesterday, and when I saw his demeanor, I was sold. He reminds me of Kobe Bryant.

He was asked if he asked the Bears anything (or what would he ask them, Im not sure which) and he said "do you want to win?" it sounds like Caleb is going to be a real leader on the team, maybe even eventually arguing with or outranking the coaches. I know that can be a red flag in a lot of cases, but what i see is a guy who will check the coaching mistakes. It seems like he is going to drag everyone around him to victories. And to me, that's the real deal.