Has any generational QB prospects ever won a SB?

[killakrzydav]

I want to be treated special too.  You know why?

 

Cuz I'm special.

 

Narratives homie; narratives.

 

[BearFan PHX]

Caleb will get special treatment for as long as he deserves it.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 3/7/2024 at 1:20 PM, BearFan PHX said:

OK... Here is Kurt Warners all 22 breakdown on Caleb vs Colorado. I havent seen it yet. It just came out today, so let's call that a fair test and both watch it.

I did as you requested and here is what I came away with (apologies to others for the length).

I should preface this by saying on another podcast Warner said he has never tried to project how well a college QB will do in the NFL.  Just that he can comment on the traits of QBs and how he thinks they'll do going forward.  Also of note, others in the social media world pointed out that Warner predicted Bryce Young and Zach Wilson would do great in the NFL, that CJ Stroud's play wouldn't transfer to the NFL and that Justin Herbert would struggle.  For the record he still ranks this year's QBs as:

1. Williams (although he does say he needs to see more tape on him)
2. Daniels
3. Penix or Nix (interchangeable in his mind)
4. Maye (sorry Mongo)
5. McCarthy

I watched pretty much the whole video you included and did some screengrabs in a few instances.   Unfortunately, I'm not tech-savvy enough to stick them next to the narrative so they may have been posted out of order. 

So about play 3-4 we see Williams do an RPO with a deep read.  He opts for the deep read and overthrows him by a bit.  The very next play, same thing but along the left side. Again, he overthrows the receiver.

Play 5(?) ends up having no receiver open to begin with so "he makes things happen" and eventually finds a receiver open.  (Justin does this type of thing all the time and it's called "hero ball" and considered a bad thing).

About 8 mins in was a screen throw and an example of Williams being able to throw from different arm angles.  Something we've see Justin do time and again.  In fact some have commented on how often Justin has had his passes batted down.  How much better do you think a QB that allegedly is 6'1" (and some change) would do compared to a QB that is 6'3"?

At about 9 mins in we see what you and Warner refer to as progression reading.  I would agree, except...  He starts by working from right to left.  Warner in fact points that out.  Williams ends up throwing to a receiver along the left side when a receiver is open on the right-hand side he was just "reading" (1st picture below).

At 16 mins. in we see him go to the receiver along the right side with single man coverage.  Warner says he's not a fan of this throw but 'not mad at him for trying' (he missed).  Meanwhile to his left he had the check down receiver and another receiver about 20 yards up field coming back open.   

A question I ask is maybe he is better at middle of the field passing (Justin's weakness) but so far hasn't shown a lot of overly impressive deep passing success.  That is unless you count the aforementioned improv play (aka hero ball).

Case in point:  just around 19 mins he starts with a read on the left side and has no one open.  Meanwhile he has a similar play development with a slot (?) receiver working back to open space and about 15-20 yards beyond LOS (picture 2).  Instead Williams tries deep and gets the INT.  Warner remarks?  "Caleb tries to make too much out of nothing."  (aka hero ball). 

A few plays later shows the slot wr execute a hook route on the right side.  Warner asks out loud why he doesn't do like he did before and throw quick to the open receiver (picture 3).  Instead he takes off and gets the sack.

After watching this I would pose the same question to you that you ask of Fields.  On those short and quick reads, how many of them are "scripted"?  We see in the last illustration a play that he apparently has done time and again but misses the open read and takes off, only to get sacked.  Warner mentions at the beginning of the video how this is Colorado and that they didn't have a very good defense (he admits as much in other podcasts of looking for stats and not how they do against ranked competition).  Nevertheless, this plays into the concern (I have) when he is pitted against better teams.  So far he hasn't proven he's really all that great against that type competition.  His three game losing streak from last season sorta shows that.  

 

[killakrzydav]

I think Maya is a bust. I don't like him whatsoever.

[killakrzydav]

Yuck

[BearFan PHX]

Grizz - thank you SO much for watching and for that long post! That's awesome!

I agree with what you wrote too. I'm glad we are seeing the same things.

I would say a few things in response.

First off, I'll bet you agree that you didn't see Williams holding the ball, and the ball usually came out quick, on time. So that huge narrative just isn't in the film?

Secondly, there is nothing wrong with "hero ball" - it's a very important part of being a successful QB in the NFL. When a play breaks down, this is how a good QB can make something from it, so I LOVE when a QB can do that. My knock on Fields was that he only did that, and almost never got the ball out in structure. Williams definitely can do both.

I agree about the accuracy on those long balls. He's not always like that, but for sure in that game he missed on three long balls in a row, although one was a pass interference call. He did recover though and score a touchdown on the same drive he overthrew those balls, and threw some other nice long balls later in the game.

To your question about "scripted" plays, I'd say that ALL plays are scripted, but what I meant by it was the opening plays for Justin in each game were preset, so he knew what was coming early and could work on those plays especially, rather than learning the whole game plan that deeply. After the first handful of plays, Justin's productivity drops off and he almost never throws in rhythm for the rest of the game. Caleb gets better throughout the game, and seems to be able to play in structure a lot.

You said he lost to better competition, but that was because his defense gave up too many points. Caleb still put up numbers against every opponent, and scored a lot. USC scored these points in 2023: 56, 66, 56, 42, 48, 43, 20, 32, 50, 42, 27, 20 - I think you can say that the losses are not on Caleb?

Also, did you love his compact delivery? I am blown away by it, i don't see anyone how throws with so little motion and the time from starting to throw until the ball comes out is insanely fast. Also, you saw the accuracy on short and intermediate routes? How he leads the receivers etc?

To me he looks NFL ready right now, and I cant think of another QB since Luck that looked that ready.

Dude, thank you SO much for doing that. At least now we are talking about the same things.

[BearFan PHX]

More info:

Caleb against ranked opponents in 2023:

at ND (16)                 20-48 loss
at Utah (14)              32-34 loss
vs Washington (5)    42-52 loss
at Oregon (6)            27-36 loss

You can see Caleb is scoring well, and the USC defense is terrible.

Also, USC didn't have any players who will be drafted in the first 3 rounds of the draft this year, so Caleb did that with lesser talent too.
 

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I did as you requested and here is what I came away with (apologies to others for the length).

I should preface this by saying on another podcast Warner said he has never tried to project how well a college QB will do in the NFL.  Just that he can comment on the traits of QBs and how he thinks they'll do going forward.  Also of note, others in the social media world pointed out that Warner predicted Bryce Young and Zach Wilson would do great in the NFL, that CJ Stroud's play wouldn't transfer to the NFL and that Justin Herbert would struggle.  For the record he still ranks this year's QBs as:

1. Williams (although he does say he needs to see more tape on him)
2. Daniels
3. Penix or Nix (interchangeable in his mind)
4. Maye (sorry Mongo)
5. McCarthy

I watched pretty much the whole video you included and did some screengrabs in a few instances.   Unfortunately, I'm not tech-savvy enough to stick them next to the narrative so they may have been posted out of order. 

So about play 3-4 we see Williams do an RPO with a deep read.  He opts for the deep read and overthrows him by a bit.  The very next play, same thing but along the left side. Again, he overthrows the receiver.

Play 5(?) ends up having no receiver open to begin with so "he makes things happen" and eventually finds a receiver open.  (Justin does this type of thing all the time and it's called "hero ball" and considered a bad thing).

About 8 mins in was a screen throw and an example of Williams being able to throw from different arm angles.  Something we've see Justin do time and again.  In fact some have commented on how often Justin has had his passes batted down.  How much better do you think a QB that allegedly is 6'1" (and some change) would do compared to a QB that is 6'3"?

At about 9 mins in we see what you and Warner refer to as progression reading.  I would agree, except...  He starts by working from right to left.  Warner in fact points that out.  Williams ends up throwing to a receiver along the left side when a receiver is open on the right-hand side he was just "reading" (1st picture below).

At 16 mins. in we see him go to the receiver along the right side with single man coverage.  Warner says he's not a fan of this throw but 'not mad at him for trying' (he missed).  Meanwhile to his left he had the check down receiver and another receiver about 20 yards up field coming back open.   

A question I ask is maybe he is better at middle of the field passing (Justin's weakness) but so far hasn't shown a lot of overly impressive deep passing success.  That is unless you count the aforementioned improv play (aka hero ball).

Case in point:  just around 19 mins he starts with a read on the left side and has no one open.  Meanwhile he has a similar play development with a slot (?) receiver working back to open space and about 15-20 yards beyond LOS (picture 2).  Instead Williams tries deep and gets the INT.  Warner remarks?  "Caleb tries to make too much out of nothing."  (aka hero ball). 

A few plays later shows the slot wr execute a hook route on the right side.  Warner asks out loud why he doesn't do like he did before and throw quick to the open receiver (picture 3).  Instead he takes off and gets the sack.

After watching this I would pose the same question to you that you ask of Fields.  On those short and quick reads, how many of them are "scripted"?  We see in the last illustration a play that he apparently has done time and again but misses the open read and takes off, only to get sacked.  Warner mentions at the beginning of the video how this is Colorado and that they didn't have a very good defense (he admits as much in other podcasts of looking for stats and not how they do against ranked competition).  Nevertheless, this plays into the concern (I have) when he is pitted against better teams.  So far he hasn't proven he's really all that great against that type competition.  His three game losing streak from last season sorta shows that.  

 

In that game - Caleb had 6TDs and 10 incomplete passes. He also completed a pass to 10 different players…talk about reading a d and not just going to one guy. 
 

He went 30-40 for 405 yards and 6TDs and they won by a td cause USC defense is awful (Colorados is too in fairness). 
 

I watched that game and I was blown away at how smooth Caleb was (happened to be in Chicago eating a deep dish hole watching). 
 

Really appreciate the level of review - and I don’t disagree with some of those examples but there was a ton of great in that game. Great reads and great throws. 
 

I am a huge Fields fan boy - love him and want nothing more than for him to be a star. I will root for him wherever he plays next cause he is so likable. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

In that game - Caleb had 6TDs and 10 incomplete passes. He also completed a pass to 10 different players…talk about reading a d and not just going to one guy. 
 

He went 30-40 for 405 yards and 6TDs and they won by a td cause USC defense is awful (Colorados is too in fairness). 
 

I watched that game and I was blown away at how smooth Caleb was (happened to be in Chicago eating a deep dish hole watching). 
 

Really appreciate the level of review - and I don’t disagree with some of those examples but there was a ton of great in that game. Great reads and great throws. 
 

I am a huge Fields fan boy - love him and want nothing more than for him to be a star. I will root for him wherever he plays next cause he is so likable. 

Yeah he looked really smooth in that film. I want that guy to be our QB.

I watched the all 22 Alabama game too and he was incredible in that one. I cant find it not behind a paywall though.

Even the Notre Dame game which was his worst, you can see he picked himself up after the half and came back strong.

I think he has everything we need in a QB.

[50england50]

If we draft Williams or keep Fields and trade the 1st pick, the only thing I’m interested is Poles chooses the best deal. 

Fields is unlikely to carry the team on his own, but this is a team game, and if you put Fields in the great teams that won superbowls with serviceable QBs I’m sure they would have still been winners. I’m all in for improving the team. 
 

if we get a deal similar or better to what Carolina did, I’m sure we could be successful with Fields. 
 

Would you keep Fields if we swap 1st round picks with Washington to receive their 2nd round pick at 36. Then we swap picks 1st’s with New England for their 2nd at 34. Then if we 1st with New York for their 2nd (no 47) and 3rd (70). We could then take the best players at 1st (6), 1st (9), 2nd(34), 2nd (36), 3rd (70) and 3rd(75). Having 6 picks, if they are hits, in the first 75 picks should enable the Bears to be better with Fields, opposed to taking Williams at no 1 and trading down from the 9th. 
 

What would you do, I know we would get slightly better than the value chart, but teams will overpay for QBs.

[Stinger226]

26 minutes ago, 50england50 said:

If we draft Williams or keep Fields and trade the 1st pick, the only thing I’m interested is Poles chooses the best deal. 

Fields is unlikely to carry the team on his own, but this is a team game, and if you put Fields in the great teams that won superbowls with serviceable QBs I’m sure they would have still been winners. I’m all in for improving the team. 
 

if we get a deal similar or better to what Carolina did, I’m sure we could be successful with Fields. 
 

Would you keep Fields if we swap 1st round picks with Washington to receive their 2nd round pick at 36. Then we swap picks 1st’s with New England for their 2nd at 34. Then if we 1st with New York for their 2nd (no 47) and 3rd (70). We could then take the best players at 1st (6), 1st (9), 2nd(34), 2nd (36), 3rd (70) and 3rd(75). Having 6 picks, if they are hits, in the first 75 picks should enable the Bears to be better with Fields, opposed to taking Williams at no 1 and trading down from the 9th. 
 

What would you do, I know we would get slightly better than the value chart, but teams will overpay for QBs.

Anything is on the table untill Poles makes his first move which should have a domino effect from that point on.

[50england50]

35 minutes ago, 50england50 said:

If we draft Williams or keep Fields and trade the 1st pick, the only thing I’m interested is Poles chooses the best deal. 

Fields is unlikely to carry the team on his own, but this is a team game, and if you put Fields in the great teams that won superbowls with serviceable QBs I’m sure they would have still been winners. I’m all in for improving the team. 
 

if we get a deal similar or better to what Carolina did, I’m sure we could be successful with Fields. 
 

Would you keep Fields if we swap 1st round picks with Washington to receive their 2nd round pick at 36. Then we swap picks 1st’s with New England for their 2nd at 34. Then if we 1st with New York for their 2nd (no 47) and 3rd (70). We could then take the best players at 1st (6), 1st (9), 2nd(34), 2nd (36), 3rd (70) and 3rd(75). Having 6 picks, if they are hits, in the first 75 picks should enable the Bears to be better with Fields, opposed to taking Williams at no 1 and trading down from the 9th. 
 

What would you do, I know we would get slightly better than the value chart, but teams will overpay for QBs.

With these picks I looked at a list of the top 100 prospects and choose the following. Would this strengthen the team?
 

No 6 Rome Odonze WR

No 9 Troy Fautanu OT

NO 34 Darius Robinson DL

NO 36 Austin Booker EDGE

No 70 Cedric Van Pran-Granger C

No75 Jeremiah Trotter Jnr LB 

[50england50]

9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Anything is on the table untill Poles makes his first move which should have a domino effect from that point on.

Totally agree that anything should be on the table. Whichever way Poles goes I feel more positive than I have in years and probably as far back as 2018 when we overachieved with Nagy. 

[BearFan PHX]

No team has ever won two superbowls with anything less than a top 2 QB.

Every now and then a lesser QB will sneak into a SB win, but only when one of the big names isnt in it.

Mahomes, Brady and the manning Brothers have wont he vast majority of the superbowls in the last 25 years. Before that it was Bradshaw, Montana and others.

It's a team game and no QB can do it alone, but if you dont have a top 2 QB, youre not realistically in the hunt.

[Stinger226]

42 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

No team has ever won two superbowls with anything less than a top 2 QB.

Every now and then a lesser QB will sneak into a SB win, but only when one of the big names isnt in it.

Mahomes, Brady and the manning Brothers have wont he vast majority of the superbowls in the last 25 years. Before that it was Bradshaw, Montana and others.

It's a team game and no QB can do it alone, but if you dont have a top 2 QB, youre not realistically in the hunt.

I'd be satisfied with one at this stage of Beardom. Poles has a plan, this is a critical year in his rebuild . Let's see what he decides. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

No team has ever won two superbowls with anything less than a top 2 QB.

I have questions.  When you say "top 2 QB" do you mean before or after they are drafted?  

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Every now and then a lesser QB will sneak into a SB win, but only when one of the big names isnt in it.

Nick Foles (a third round selection) did it against Brady in 2018.

 

Yes I know I'm being a contrarian (again) but I'm genuinely interested in how you came about this.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

At the time, Dan Marino was considered the greatest QB to play and never won the Superbowl.  It takes the GM, coaches, and a team to accomplish that. The Bears might have the right GM, but I am skeptical about the coaching.  Waldron, I hope, is the secret weapon to get us there. 

[BearFan PHX]

22 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I have questions.  When you say "top 2 QB" do you mean before or after they are drafted?  

Nick Foles (a third round selection) did it against Brady in 2018.

 

Yes I know I'm being a contrarian (again) but I'm genuinely interested in how you came about this.  

I mean top 2 in the league, like Mahomes is now. And of course no one ever comes into the league as that. But I'm saying if you don't have one of those, you're not realistically in a position to have a likely shot at super bowl victories.

And you're right about Foles. He did get the MVP of the game though, went for 373 yards, 3 TD and one INT. So they had top notch QB play in that game.

I also think things can be true without being 100% certain. That's why I say "multiple superbowls" or "likely" - because there is enough chaos that you can sneak into one if everything goes your way, but if you want to be in a position to think you're a leading contender year in and year out, the only way is with a top elite QB.

And that's why I think taking a shot at a possible prospect who could be that (and that's all Williams can be at this point, a prospect) is so valuable. I see a high percentage likelihood that Williams can be that, but of course it depends on lots of factors including coaching and who the Bears put around him too. People saying we need a team around the position are also totally correct. But I dont think if you put a team around Sam Darnold or Marcus Mariotta or someone professional like that that you realistically have any real shot at winning a super bowl.

Oh and to the contrarian point, I dont mind that at all - these debates help educate (me at least) and sharpen the arguments etc, so I appreciate that. Despite what is said, I don't mind when people disagree with me at all. I just prefer (not talking to you here) if it's less sarcastic etc. But it's all good. it IS the internet after all.

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

At the time, Dan Marino was considered the greatest QB to play and never won the Superbowl.  It takes the GM, coaches, and a team to accomplish that. The Bears might have the right GM, but I am skeptical about the coaching.  Waldron, I hope, is the secret weapon to get us there. 

for sure you could put Mahomes or Brady on a crappy team and it would be hard for them to win a superbowl. Football is the ultimate team sport.

But I believe a great QB can do more with less, than a great team can accomplish without a great QB. And that the soundest strategy is to have both.

And also that building a roster is easier than finding an elite QB.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

for sure you could put Mahomes or Brady on a crappy team and it would be hard for them to win a superbowl. Football is the ultimate team sport.

But I believe a great QB can do more with less, than a great team can accomplish without a great QB. And that the soundest strategy is to have both.

And also that building a roster is easier than finding an elite QB.

It takes all phases.  One reason the Bears most likely stayed with Flus is because a new HC can change all the personal needs with different schemes.  That would set the team back and if they do take a QB, make his life more difficult to develop.  The QB needs his offense players to know the plays and execute near perfection to be successful. What I do see is Waldron taking over possibly at the end of the year and Washington learning as much as he can to keep the defense on par. 

[Pixote]

17 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

What I do see is Waldron taking over possibly at the end of the year and Washington learning as much as he can to keep the defense on par. 

Do you think it is possible that the Bears will be so bad that they will fire Flus before the end of the 2024 season?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 minute ago, Pixote said:

Do you think it is possible that the Bears will be so bad that they will fire Flus before the end of the 2024 season?

I don't see that and see it being a difficult fire if they win 10 plus and either miss the playoffs or are wildcard losers.

[Pixote]

3 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I don't see that and see it being a difficult fire if they win 10 plus and either miss the playoffs or are wildcard losers.

I agree.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

It takes all phases.  One reason the Bears most likely stayed with Flus is because a new HC can change all the personal needs with different schemes.  That would set the team back and if they do take a QB, make his life more difficult to develop.  The QB needs his offense players to know the plays and execute near perfection to be successful. What I do see is Waldron taking over possibly at the end of the year and Washington learning as much as he can to keep the defense on par. 

I think when Poles keeps Flus because his players support him and he is a good defensive coach. They are on the same  page on how  to become a winner. You can't earn stability with constantly changing staff because of a few disappointments. Poles did not  put Flus in the beat position to win  when he  tore the roster down . Flus is learning how to be a head coach, Poles accepts that. He made mistakes on coaches now I think e is more selective and made better choices.

[BearFan PHX]

Right, if they are winning 10 games, I cant imagine them firing Flus and moving everyone else up. Even if they think that would be better, its still not something you could really do.

I see Flus as kind of a glorified defensive coordinator and executive head coach. I dont see him giving the offense an edge in winning the way that Belichick did for example, even though he was a defensive guy too, and of course I worry that if Waldron takes the offense to the moon, he would be gone to be a head coach somewhere, where Id rather keep him than Flus at that point. But it wouldnt be because Flus was awful but because Waldron gave you more.

But like we all said, at that point it wouldnt really be possible even if it was smart because how do you fire a guy who is winning 10+ games a year on a team that is ascending?

We have a passing game coordinator named Thomas Brown who is supposed to be incredibly charismatic and likely head coach someday, so he would step into Waldrons shoes if that happened and supposedly wed be in good hands. And to try to see into the future past Waldron and Brown is completely impossible.

We should have that problem - winning multiple superbowls and losing two offensive coordinators in a row!