The Keep Justin Crowd...

[Mongo3451]

Can everyone provide names of players and commentators that day the Bears should build around Justin?

Derrick Carr

Shawn O'Hara

Kyle Long

George Kittle

Brian Urlacher

Jay Cutler

Chris Long

That's a start...

 

[Pixote]

My memory sucks, but I know for sure these are in the "Keep Fields" corner:

Chase Daniels
Jared Allen
Vinnie Iyer (of Sporting News)
Joe Broback (of Pro Football Network)

I think for every "Keep Fields" advocate, there are two who insist we need to "Trade/Cut Fields" 

Me?

Keep Fields, but draft a top QB prospect, preferably with one of the picks from a record-setting trade of #1.

 

[AZ54]

DJ Moore

[Stinger226]

26 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Can everyone provide names of players and commentators that day the Bears should build around Justin?

Derrick Carr

Shawn O'Hara

Kyle Long

George Kittle

Brian Urlacher

Jay Cutler

Chris Long

That's a start...

 

Tim Jenkins

Dave Wannsted

CJ Stroud

Roger King

Every player on the Bears

Mike Florio ( he thinks they should keep for a bridge QB for rookie)

Mark Sanchez

 

 

[killakrzydav]

That chick with the nice tits. I think his name is Stinger

[Stinger226]

Which one?

[Stinger226]

Devin Hester  just posted a video yesterday lending his support for Justin. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

To Stinger…AI is going to be the death of all of us…

To Mongo…what are you up to?

I’ll bite…

Jaylon Johnson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave, Merrill Hoge, Swifty…

all the fans at the Atlanta game…(the list goes on)…

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

11 hours ago, Pixote said:

Me?

Keep Fields, but draft a top QB prospect, preferably with one of the picks from a record-setting trade of #1.

X2

11 hours ago, Pixote said:

I think for every "Keep Fields" advocate, there are two who insist we need to "Trade/Cut Fields" 

I’m not as sure about that. Social media (if it’s any guage) still tracks polling at about 50/50.  And the Fields detractors who started by saying he’d surely get the Bears maybe a 1st or 2nd pick in exchange AND that he would be traded by now have changed their tune to  ‘noone in the league wants him’.  

[Mongo3451]

8 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

To Mongo…what are you up to?

Haha!  You give me too much credit.  Was watching Carr and O'Hara give a Justin vote and got curious as to what the compilation would reveal.  It's a pretty long list so far...

[Stinger226]

What I think is interesting if we didn't have a top 5 pick, none of this would be a conversation. It would be hoping MHJ falls to us.

[AZ54]

To be clear I’m in the keep Justin, keep MHJr or Rome Odunze,  keep Zach Frazier or whichever OG we take in round 2.  And keep the top 10 DE we draft among next years elite edge class.   I have yet to see a QB worth trading all those players for.  

[50england50]

I’m not opposed to drafting Williams or trading Fields. If Pittsburg swap Alex Highsmith for Fields I’m probably drafting Williams unless Poles has good grades on another QB then I’m hoping Washington gives a huge draft haul and we take that QB  at 3 or 4. 
 

Our hand is strong because we can go several ways. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

To be clear I’m in the keep Justin, keep MHJr or Rome Odunze,  keep Zach Frazier or whichever OG we take in round 2.  And keep the top 10 DE we draft among next years elite edge class.   I have yet to see a QB worth trading all those players for.  

Nobody knows how all this turns out but at least with Justin, I have something I can project an outcome with.,  I can see him getting better, he'll never be top 5 but he doesn't have to be. He can wow you with  his hero ball. He drives DCs crazy  That can win a SB .

 Williams is just a dream scape of a Mahomes 2.0, odds are slim he's that. 

Media keeps pushing Caleb but I think there's still a decent chance he goes Justin and draft capital. If he goes with a rookie I can ride that train when it gets here.

[50england50]

I think we can all agree that drafting QBs is a crapshoot. It’s a lottery that no one can predict. My dream scenario would be to trade with a team where we can still get the best WR and the other team has a terrible season and we have their top 5 pick. Justin plays really good and we have a choice to sign him to a contract, take the 5th option, trade him because he a quality starter or we draft a good QB prospect and bring him into a great roster where our QB is on a team friendly contract and we can add quality depth. 
 

I have a good vibe with Poles who seems to be bringing in good free agents, can draft well and does not over over pay on contracts.

Does anyone else feel that in our search for general managers we have finally hit with Poles.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, 50england50 said:

I think we can all agree that drafting QBs is a crapshoot. It’s a lottery that no one can predict.

Yes and no. Every pick is a risk, but some QBs clearly have a better chance to be great than others. It's not completely random.You have to factor that in. Caleb Williams has a better chance to be great in the NFL than anyone in a while. That doesnt mean that he is guaranteed or that he couldnt bust while another prospect thrives.

But it's like this. Imagine two games. One is a coin flip. Guess it right and you win. Another is a dice roll. Roll a six and you win. You play the coin flip and your friend plays the dice game. You lose, but he wins. That doesn't mean that playing each game gives an equal chance to win or that the next time you play you shouldnt choose the dice game, because you should.

Some would say "but half the time you lose, so it's just as much of a gamble as the dice game" but it isnt. it is quantifiably 3 times more likely that you win the coin toss than the dice game. "But there was a time that the dice game won, so it's all a gamble" right, but its not the SAME gamble - its still three times better bet to play the coin flip.

First pick overall QBs have a much higher chance to be great than the rest of the top ten. And top ten picked QBs have a better chance than any others. First rounders have a better chance than second rounders, and second rounders have a better chance than third rounders etc. We posted a ton of analysis here a couple months back proving that beyond any doubt.

And Williams is a better prospect than the average #1 pick QB too.

Just because something isnt 100% predictable doesn't mean that all gambles are the same. Thats the error in your logic.
 

1 hour ago, 50england50 said:

Does anyone else feel that in our search for general managers we have finally hit with Poles.  

Yeah I really do. I still think he should have fired Eberflus, but we can get around that. Assuming he picks Caleb WIlliams with the #1 pick, I'm giving him an A overall. Maybe not an A+ (Eberflus, Velus Jones, Claypool) but still a solid A for sure.

If he passes on taking a top pick QB and rolls with Justin, then I think that will be an epic error that will doom us for a decade (we wont have another #1 pick to get a GREAT QB) and Poles will get fired.

[50england50]

6 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

First pick overall QBs have a much higher chance to be great than the rest of the top ten. And top ten picked QBs have a better chance than any others. First rounders have a better chance than second rounders, and second rounders have a better chance than third rounders etc. We posted a ton of analysis here a couple months back proving that beyond any doubt.
 

 

My point that it’s a crapshoot is will always point to Tom Brady and you do not need to the take a QB high in the first round. 
 

Regarding Williams being a generational talent QB is Williams’ profile better than Andrew Luck. The Colts moved on from Manning and if they had instead kept Manning, traded the pick and got a large haul of capital, drafted well, the Colts might have won  another Super Bowl for example instead the one won by Denver. 
 

I don’t think keeping Fields necessary equates to a decade of doom. Like others have pointed out, if we strengthen the team we might be able to win with Fields. 
 

I’m sure the season when we made the superbowl with Grossman, we could have won a second Super Bowl with Fields under centre. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, 50england50 said:

My point that it’s a crapshoot is will always point to Tom Brady and you do not need to the take a QB high in the first round.

nah youre not understanding the math here. You can throw ten dice and have them all land on six, but its not likely. You can get Tom Brady int he sixth round, but it's not likely. Youre much much more likely to get a bad QB in the sixth round. You're still arguing that all risks are the same, and they arent. And since they arent the rest of the argument falls apart?
 

1 hour ago, 50england50 said:

Regarding Williams being a generational talent QB is Williams’ profile better than Andrew Luck. The Colts moved on from Manning and if they had instead kept Manning, traded the pick and got a large haul of capital, drafted well, the Colts might have won  another Super Bowl for example instead the one won by Denver.

True. If we had Peyton Manning, I would not be drafting Caleb Williams. Then again, Peyton was nearing retirement. Even the Patriots moved on from Brady.
 

1 hour ago, 50england50 said:

I don’t think keeping Fields necessary equates to a decade of doom. Like others have pointed out, if we strengthen the team we might be able to win with Fields.

The vast majority of the last 25 superbowls were won by 4 QBs, Mahomes, Brady, Manning and Eli Manning. Before that it was Montana, and Bradshaw etc. You cannot reliably win the superbowl without a top 2 (in the league) QB. You might get lucky once, but its not a plan for winning - it's extremely unlikely.

 

1 hour ago, 50england50 said:

I’m sure the season when we made the superbowl with Grossman, we could have won a second Super Bowl with Fields under centre. 

I think Fields is awful, and cant read defenses. I dont think he could take any team to the Superbowl. Where are his 300 yard games? His 4th quarter comebacks? His consistent passing in structure and tempo?

The guy makes great highlight reels running, but he will never take a team to the superbowl, and he will probably be out of the league soon. I dont think he will ever even be a starter for anyone again. And if so, they wont win 10 games in a season.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yes and no. Every pick is a risk, but some QBs clearly have a better chance to be great than others. It's not completely random.You have to factor that in. Caleb Williams has a better chance to be great in the NFL than anyone in a while. That doesnt mean that he is guaranteed or that he couldnt bust while another prospect thrives.

But it's like this. Imagine two games. One is a coin flip. Guess it right and you win. Another is a dice roll. Roll a six and you win. You play the coin flip and your friend plays the dice game. You lose, but he wins. That doesn't mean that playing each game gives an equal chance to win or that the next time you play you shouldnt choose the dice game, because you should.

Some would say "but half the time you lose, so it's just as much of a gamble as the dice game" but it isnt. it is quantifiably 3 times more likely that you win the coin toss than the dice game. "But there was a time that the dice game won, so it's all a gamble" right, but its not the SAME gamble - its still three times better bet to play the coin flip.

First pick overall QBs have a much higher chance to be great than the rest of the top ten. And top ten picked QBs have a better chance than any others. First rounders have a better chance than second rounders, and second rounders have a better chance than third rounders etc. We posted a ton of analysis here a couple months back proving that beyond any doubt.

And Williams is a better prospect than the average #1 pick QB too.

Just because something isnt 100% predictable doesn't mean that all gambles are the same. Thats the error in your logic.
 

Yeah I really do. I still think he should have fired Eberflus, but we can get around that. Assuming he picks Caleb WIlliams with the #1 pick, I'm giving him an A overall. Maybe not an A+ (Eberflus, Velus Jones, Claypool) but still a solid A for sure.

If he passes on taking a top pick QB and rolls with Justin, then I think that will be an epic error that will doom us for a decade (we wont have another #1 pick to get a GREAT QB) and Poles will get fired.

While the toss of a coin has a random outcome correctly calling the outcome does not necessarily have the same result from different individuals.   

[Stinger226]

In the last 25 years only 2 generational QB prospect has won a SB. Peyton Manning and John Elway. Odds 2/25.

[BearFan PHX]

36 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

While the toss of a coin has a random outcome correctly calling the outcome does not necessarily have the same result from different individuals.   

Not sure I understand. In my analogy correctly calling the  coin or rolling a six on the dice would correlate into having your pick become a great QB in the league i.e. a successful outcome from the risk.

Im saying when you decide whether to take the risk or not, you can measure how risky something is.

So while top picks have failed, and 6th round picks have excelled, it is more likely that a top pick will excel and a 6th round pick will fail.

It's the difference between something being possible and likely.

[BearFan PHX]

34 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

In the last 25 years only 2 generational QB prospect has won a SB. Peyton Manning and John Elway. Odds 2/25.

your math is ridiculous. youre literally not smart enough to understand.

[Stinger226]

11 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

your math is ridiculous. youre literally not smart enough to understand.

Only 2_wins in 25 years of SBs, how is that ridiculous? I understand you don't like facts that disrupt your opinions but I don't either.

I liken us to a boxing match. You keep punching below the belt( not smart enough) but I'm just not getting pulled into your conflict any more. I only did that when you called me a child molester. I moved on.

 

 

[50england50]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

The guy makes great highlight reels running, but he will never take a team to the superbowl, and he will probably be out of the league soon. I dont think he will ever even be a starter for anyone again. And if so, they wont win 10 games in a season.

I think that is a strong statement to say Fields will soon be out of the NFL. Can you clarify soon, do you means after 2025. 
 

Also he won’t start another game. I think it’s unlikely. 
 

My hypothesis is whatever way Poles goes we need luck, fate, karma or whatever you call it to be lucky, and no one can categorically state Williams will have a better career than Fields or vice a versa. 

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, 50england50 said:

I think that is a strong statement to say Fields will soon be out of the NFL. Can you clarify soon, do you means after 2025. 
 

Also he won’t start another game. I think it’s unlikely. 
 

My hypothesis is whatever way Poles goes we need luck, fate, karma or whatever you call it to be lucky, and no one can categorically state Williams will have a better career than Fields or vice a versa. 

He could start games, but it would be as a backup due to injury or something. I just dont see anyone making him their starter. He has such incredible upside in so many ways, but he has a fatal flaw and defenses have figured it out, so if you take him now, its because you think you can coach him out of the thing theyve been saying about him since college, and i dont think most teams want that risk?