2025 Bears Draft Picks

[dawhizz]

Just looked at this, and after all the wheeling and dealing, the Bears have a pretty strong amount of draft capital for next year - all their picks except their 7th, plus Carolina's 2nd, Miami's 6th, and the pick from Pittsburgh that's either a 6th or (possibly) a 4th.  What's even more interesting is that the Bears have very few starters who are free agents next year - besides Keenan Allan, their only other free agent starter is Teven Jenkins, unless Coleman Shelton wins the C job or you count Khari Blasingame.  Really, there aren't even many depth FAs of note - Khalil Herbert is no longer the starter and has Roschon Johnson probably pushing him on the roster.  Larry Borom might not make the team.  Jack Sanborn is an RFA and pretty replaceable (or cheap to resign).  With that all in mind, and the Bears with only four picks, I wonder, if the Bears don't trade down from #9, once we get into the second half of the 2nd round will Poles doesn't start think about trading a future pick or two to grab someone knowing this roster doesn't have a ton of holes and looks ready to compete now, even with a rookie QB?  Something to keep in mind.

[BearFan PHX]

27 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

Just looked at this, and after all the wheeling and dealing, the Bears have a pretty strong amount of draft capital for next year - all their picks except their 7th, plus Carolina's 2nd, Miami's 6th, and the pick from Pittsburgh that's either a 6th or (possibly) a 4th.  What's even more interesting is that the Bears have very few starters who are free agents next year - besides Keenan Allan, their only other free agent starter is Teven Jenkins, unless Coleman Shelton wins the C job or you count Khari Blasingame.  Really, there aren't even many depth FAs of note - Khalil Herbert is no longer the starter and has Roschon Johnson probably pushing him on the roster.  Larry Borom might not make the team.  Jack Sanborn is an RFA and pretty replaceable (or cheap to resign).  With that all in mind, and the Bears with only four picks, I wonder, if the Bears don't trade down from #9, once we get into the second half of the 2nd round will Poles doesn't start think about trading a future pick or two to grab someone knowing this roster doesn't have a ton of holes and looks ready to compete now, even with a rookie QB?  Something to keep in mind.

good thoughts. and yes, the three year cycle that began after the 2022 tank year opened all that space, and now our rookies wont be looking for second contracts until the first wave hits in 2026. Thats why we still had big cap money this year too.

Poles is getting us into rhythm with a roster and then we will have to trade out and replace players to stay ahead of the clock.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

good thoughts. and yes, the three year cycle that began after the 2022 tank year opened all that space, and now our rookies wont be looking for second contracts until the first wave hits in 2026. Thats why we still had big cap money this year too.

Poles is getting us into rhythm with a roster and then we will have to trade out and replace players to stay ahead of the clock.

If I remember didn't NE play it that way, beve

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

If I remember didn't NE play it that way, beve

yes they were the masters of this for a while.

[adam]

So I have been doing a little digging interestingly enough.

From the 2022 draft, based on AV, there are 85 players that have contributed at a starter or above level (262 total drafted/32%). The Bears have 3 starter quality players from that draft, Braxton Jones, Jaquan Brisker, and Kyler Gordon (just squeaked in at the bottom). There were 8 other players drafted by the Bears in 2022 (11 in total/27%), including Velus Jones in the 3rd, and none of them made the list. Braxton was the only pick beyond the 2nd round to hit.

In the 2023 draft, there were 57 players to make the list as starter level contributors (out of 259 total players/22%). The Bears selected 10 players in this draft. 3 of them made the list (30%). Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and Roschon Johnson. Of those 3, Roschon was the only pick beyond the 2nd round to make the list.

So Poles has hit on 4 out of 5 1st/2nd round picks. His only miss right now is Dexter. From the 3rd to 7th though, he has hit on 2/15 (Braxton and Roschon). 

In the last two drafts, there have been 521 total draftees, and 142 players made the list (27.3%). The Bears had 6 players make the list out of 21 drafted (28.6%). So Poles is drafting 1.3% better than the NFL average. He is above average in the 1st two rounds and below average from 3rd to the 7th. I think that is why he is not opposed to trading picks from later rounds.

I actually expect Poles to use future draft capital later in the draft to move up in this year's draft.

[Stinger226]

44 minutes ago, adam said:

So I have been doing a little digging interestingly enough.

From the 2022 draft, based on AV, there are 85 players that have contributed at a starter or above level (262 total drafted/32%). The Bears have 3 starter quality players from that draft, Braxton Jones, Jaquan Brisker, and Kyler Gordon (just squeaked in at the bottom). There were 8 other players drafted by the Bears in 2022 (11 in total/27%), including Velus Jones in the 3rd, and none of them made the list. Braxton was the only pick beyond the 2nd round to hit.

In the 2023 draft, there were 57 players to make the list as starter level contributors (out of 259 total players/22%). The Bears selected 10 players in this draft. 3 of them made the list (30%). Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and Roschon Johnson. Of those 3, Roschon was the only pick beyond the 2nd round to make the list.

So Poles has hit on 4 out of 5 1st/2nd round picks. His only miss right now is Dexter. From the 3rd to 7th though, he has hit on 2/15 (Braxton and Roschon). 

In the last two drafts, there have been 521 total draftees, and 142 players made the list (27.3%). The Bears had 6 players make the list out of 21 drafted (28.6%). So Poles is drafting 1.3% better than the NFL average. He is above average in the 1st two rounds and below average from 3rd to the 7th. I think that is why he is not opposed to trading picks from later rounds.

I actually expect Poles to use future draft capital later in the draft to move up in this year's draft.

I think so to. He's going for it now, to get the right guy he may have to use future draft capital.  

[Pixote]

1 hour ago, adam said:

So I have been doing a little digging interestingly enough.

From the 2022 draft, based on AV, there are 85 players that have contributed at a starter or above level (262 total drafted/32%). The Bears have 3 starter quality players from that draft, Braxton Jones, Jaquan Brisker, and Kyler Gordon (just squeaked in at the bottom). There were 8 other players drafted by the Bears in 2022 (11 in total/27%), including Velus Jones in the 3rd, and none of them made the list. Braxton was the only pick beyond the 2nd round to hit.

In the 2023 draft, there were 57 players to make the list as starter level contributors (out of 259 total players/22%). The Bears selected 10 players in this draft. 3 of them made the list (30%). Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and Roschon Johnson. Of those 3, Roschon was the only pick beyond the 2nd round to make the list.

So Poles has hit on 4 out of 5 1st/2nd round picks. His only miss right now is Dexter. From the 3rd to 7th though, he has hit on 2/15 (Braxton and Roschon). 

In the last two drafts, there have been 521 total draftees, and 142 players made the list (27.3%). The Bears had 6 players make the list out of 21 drafted (28.6%). So Poles is drafting 1.3% better than the NFL average. He is above average in the 1st two rounds and below average from 3rd to the 7th. I think that is why he is not opposed to trading picks from later rounds.

I actually expect Poles to use future draft capital later in the draft to move up in this year's draft.

Personally, I hope Poles resist the temptation to use future draft picks to move up.

It's this use of future draft capital that has us sitting with what? 4 picks vs Detroit's 11 ?

Put the Draft CC away.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

11 hours ago, dawhizz said:

Just looked at this, and after all the wheeling and dealing, the Bears have a pretty strong amount of draft capital for next year - all their picks except their 7th, plus Carolina's 2nd, Miami's 6th, and the pick from Pittsburgh that's either a 6th or (possibly) a 4th.  What's even more interesting is that the Bears have very few starters who are free agents next year - besides Keenan Allan, their only other free agent starter is Teven Jenkins, unless Coleman Shelton wins the C job or you count Khari Blasingame.  Really, there aren't even many depth FAs of note - Khalil Herbert is no longer the starter and has Roschon Johnson probably pushing him on the roster.  Larry Borom might not make the team.  Jack Sanborn is an RFA and pretty replaceable (or cheap to resign).  With that all in mind, and the Bears with only four picks, I wonder, if the Bears don't trade down from #9, once we get into the second half of the 2nd round will Poles doesn't start think about trading a future pick or two to grab someone knowing this roster doesn't have a ton of holes and looks ready to compete now, even with a rookie QB?  Something to keep in mind.

Its why I don't think Poles is going to look to have 6 picks, especially in a draft that is apparently light on depth given the lack of underclassmen.  I think Poles has been signing a bunch of FA's for depth signaling he plans on basically running with 4, maybe 1 more pick this year (cause I do think a move down from 9 is a possibility) - but otherwise my guess is he might move around within and I suppose could use a next round pick to move up a bit in the draft and than if they want another 1-2 guys maybe they will be aggressive on the Undrafted front. 

By the way - the inverse also holds true - so next year should end up being a deeper draft - although QB at this point is going to be light, it doesn't mean other positions don't end up looking really good.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think so to. He's going for it now, to get the right guy he may have to use future draft capital.  

Where do Jack Sanborn and Smith show up (I am surprised Roschon was there when Smith (DB) was far better last year). 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Picks: 1:1, 1:9, 3:75 and 4:122

I have a feeling Poles pulls a 2022 draft trade using the 3rd or 4th to move down.  He turned a 5th into 4 additional picks.  The 2nd will give them a great chance at their choice for DE, which is tough to concede to their second or third choice.  Just my opinion on what they might do.

[BearFan PHX]

the question of more picks vs fewer but higher picks is a classic one. I think it depends on where your roster is. When you have nothing you need more players, but when you have a lot of holes filled, you start to look for blue chippers who will be upgrades and not just volume of picks - especially if you believe in your ability to identify talent.

6th round picks, for example, are less valuable to us than they were two years ago.

I expect Poles to add quality over quantity at this point int he rebuild, and so i agree with adams assessment that a trade down isnt absolutely necessary, and trading future LOWER picks is in play.

That isnt to say that a trade down of pick 9 isnt possible, but it would be more likely to target a player like JPJ for example and to avoid overdrafting him, rather than simply to pick up more players?

Once you get to the 3rd round, then all bets are off because the difference in talent as you drop down is a lot less. So Im really speaking of the first and second rounds here. So this year, picks 1 and 9. I agree with ASHKUM that we may be trading down the 3rd rounder.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

30 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

the question of more picks vs fewer but higher picks is a classic one. I think it depends on where your roster is. When you have nothing you need more players, but when you have a lot of holes filled, you start to look for blue chippers who will be upgrades and not just volume of picks - especially if you believe in your ability to identify talent.

6th round picks, for example, are less valuable to us than they were two years ago.

I expect Poles to add quality over quantity at this point int he rebuild, and so i agree with adams assessment that a trade down isnt absolutely necessary, and trading future LOWER picks is in play.

That isnt to say that a trade down of pick 9 isnt possible, but it would be more likely to target a player like JPJ for example and to avoid overdrafting him, rather than simply to pick up more players?

Once you get to the 3rd round, then all bets are off because the difference in talent as you drop down is a lot less. So Im really speaking of the first and second rounds here. So this year, picks 1 and 9. I agree with ASHKUM that we may be trading down the 3rd rounder.

It is also a presumed weaker draft from a depth perspective given lack of underclassmen.  We have signed a TON of "depth" players in the past week+ and still have a ton of cap flexibility to do more (plus add a DE to a shorter-term deal like a Chase Young or Clowney or whomever).  This screams to me as Poles is going to use those 1st 2 picks on blue chip players - the only question is how many does we have in the draft. Does he see 12 or 13 there or does he have 15. 

Depending on his count of blue chip players and how he differentiates say the quality of the 1st 10 from the next 5 (if he has 15) is going to be the key question for Poles. If he has 15 of them and the group on the board grades out similarly - than I could see him moving down (the next question is - is there something good enough on the board at 9 that drives a team to pay the price to move up as well).  

What I don't see Poles doing - is trading down outside of the range of blue chip prospects he sees. For example - if he has 15 blue chippers on the board - I don't see him moving down to 22. That isn't to say there won't be blue-chippers that come up later - the risks are higher and I think right now - Poles has to be looking for a few difference makers (whenever you have a Top 10 pick - you got to be swinging for difference maker(s)).  So we should be swinging for 2 difference makers and than hopefully find 1-2 other good / solid football players out of this draft.  

Note: For sake of this draft - I'm ignoring rounds 5-7 - but Poles could definitely move back from 3 and get a few more picks in rounds 4-5 if he wanted - but I don't see him doing it if his assessment is this is not as deep of a draft.  I also think this year - given all the other moves made - Poles is focused on drafting starters vs. depth pieces.  

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

It is also a presumed weaker draft from a depth perspective given lack of underclassmen.  We have signed a TON of "depth" players in the past week+ and still have a ton of cap flexibility to do more (plus add a DE to a shorter-term deal like a Chase Young or Clowney or whomever).  This screams to me as Poles is going to use those 1st 2 picks on blue chip players - the only question is how many does we have in the draft. Does he see 12 or 13 there or does he have 15. 

Depending on his count of blue chip players and how he differentiates say the quality of the 1st 10 from the next 5 (if he has 15) is going to be the key question for Poles. If he has 15 of them and the group on the board grades out similarly - than I could see him moving down (the next question is - is there something good enough on the board at 9 that drives a team to pay the price to move up as well).  

What I don't see Poles doing - is trading down outside of the range of blue chip prospects he sees. For example - if he has 15 blue chippers on the board - I don't see him moving down to 22. That isn't to say there won't be blue-chippers that come up later - the risks are higher and I think right now - Poles has to be looking for a few difference makers (whenever you have a Top 10 pick - you got to be swinging for difference maker(s)).  So we should be swinging for 2 difference makers and than hopefully find 1-2 other good / solid football players out of this draft.  

well said, I totally agree.

[Stinger226]

Who's the best edge in the draft? 

Dallas Turner-L Latu- Jared Verse. I see some mention names like Chop Robinson and Darius Robinson. 

Watching tape, I like Verse a lot. Not sure how his traits transfer to the NFL.

What say you

[adam]

8 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Where do Jack Sanborn and Smith show up (I am surprised Roschon was there when Smith (DB) was far better last year). 

It was weighted AV, that's why Smith wasn't listed. Sanborn was not included as he was not a draft pick as this topic was specifically talking about 2025 draft picks.

[adam]

The Bears definitely need to start adding some starters on rookie deals. Right now they only have 7 out of 22. If they add two in the year, it will go up to 9. Then next year, if they add 3 and extend Jenkins, then it will be a net of +2 to 11. Then in 2026, they will need to add 3 just to break even. 

Offensive starters on rookie deals: Jones (UFA in 2026), Jenkins (UFA in 2025), and Wright.

Defensive starters on rookie deals: Dexter, Brisker (UFA in 2026), Stevenson, and Gordon (UFA in 2026).

[dawhizz]

19 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Who's the best edge in the draft? 

Dallas Turner-L Latu- Jared Verse. I see some mention names like Chop Robinson and Darius Robinson. 

Watching tape, I like Verse a lot. Not sure how his traits transfer to the NFL.

What say you

I like Verse a little more than Turner, but like both. Chop’s lack of production scares me, as do Latu’s medical history. Adisa Isaac is a guy I like in the 2/3 range, but edge seems to drop off quite a bit after the 1st, imo. 

[BearFan PHX]

I havent paid attention to the D Line at all yet.

Are there any 3Ts worthy of the #9 pick? Whos the best fit for us?

[Stinger226]

29 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I havent paid attention to the D Line at all yet.

Are there any 3Ts worthy of the #9 pick? Whos the best fit for us?

Not by most experts. Newton and Murphy are mid 20s to end of the first round. I watched some tape on L Taylor, he's got some game. I like players with production and not sure about their stats.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

My trade 9 to get a 2nd round hope. Trade 9 to Jax for 17, 48, and 2025 6th.

This gets the Bears QB, X WR, stout C, and two DT depth pieces for Washington to work with. 

[adam]

I know the Bears need to go BPA, but if they trade down, I would really like them to address Edge in the first or second round. Then with the other 3 picks, get a WR, DT, and Center. 

 

Running a ton of mocks, if the Bears don't trade down, they are only getting one blue chipper at 9. By the time they get around to their 3rd rounder, it is more rotational guys at that point. That's probably where you can get your Center.  So unless a small group of players falls to #9, they seem better off trading to mid-teens and picking up a 2nd rounder.

 

Byron Murphy is a name I keep seeing at #9. I think he is now in the mix after the WRs and Bowers. The Edges seem to be falling to mid teens.

[BearFan PHX]

I think it also depends on whether youre looking at this years roster, or long term. So far everything Poles has done has been with an eye on the long term. 2022 being the first move in that. Of course at some point he will shift into a win now mentality too. And probably not as a light switch, but more of just adjusting the mix.

I truly think our window opens next year. That gives Caleb a year to learn the NFL. Im not putting a ceiling on what the team can do this year either. Maybe they will develop quickly, and the team that we have in December could be a lot more in rhythm than we are in September.

But taking the long view, and understanding that Allen is just here for a short while, I think you want to use Allen not just to catch passes this year, but to give leadership to a young player, who develops chemistry with Williams going forward for many years.

For this reason I feel like if the talent is equal, a DE would be better for this year, where taking a WR would be better for the long run. Either way, you're getting the other one next year. So is it better next year to add a WR new into the mix when youre already rolling and potentially losing Allen, or add pass rush piece to a team on the edge of dominating next year?

For me it's the WR now that makes the most sense in rhythm of building a team.

But that's all things being equal. I dont know how they have the Defensive Linemen ranked vs the WRs. Also you dont want to take a guy at 9 if you can have him at 15, someone like LSU's Thomas for example. If you have a pass rusher as "best in 3 years" then you take him, but since none of them are ranking that high this year, I dont see an argument for grabbing them now and waiting on the WR other than the way the roster is built this particular year. So Id look long term rather than short term.

Also, taking a lesson from all the QB failures, you want to surround your guy with as much talent as you can, so i think pick 9 goes to offense. WR, OT possibly Bowers. Maybe trade down a few slots for a specific player like Thomas or JPJ, but in every case it's because you've targeted an offensive player as a foundational piece long term.

So while I get what adding a DE means this year because we have Allen, I think it's better to get that WR now and let Caleb get chemistry with him, and then pick up the DE next year, when there may even be more depth at that position in the draft?

It all comes down to long term vs win this year, and of course how you have the prospects graded out.

[Lucky Luciano]

8 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Also, taking a lesson from all the QB failures, you want to surround your guy with as much talent as you can, so i think pick 9 goes to offense. WR, OT possibly Bowers. Maybe trade down a few slots for a specific player like Thomas or JPJ, but in every case it's because you've targeted an offensive player as a foundational piece long term.

So while I get what adding a DE means this year because we have Allen, I think it's better to get that WR now and let Caleb get chemistry with him, and then pick up the DE next year, when there may even be more depth at that position in the draft?

It all comes down to long term vs win this year, and of course how you have the prospects graded out.

i'm not so sure. with all the qb's going in the top ten this is pushing down other first class draft picks down like DE or even LOT.

if you get a chance to draft a blue chip player at one of those two positions you HAVE to take it. it could be years before we are drafting in the top 10 again and those premium players are the top of the list (other than qb) for building your franchise long term. you can pick up good+ receivers in future drafts in the middle of the first or even in free agency. you will rarely find premium LOT's or DE's in those slots.

also we have seen what difference a good+ defensive end can do for our defense and overall chances to get to a superbowl. that means if sweat was injured there is nobody to fill in his shoes and it's very doubtful we would find that kind of player from a team like washington again. you would way overpay to replace him in free agency or a trade.

the same could be said of LOT. if there is a premium blue chipper to replace our LOT that gives you a lot of trading power to other teams.

if either of those type of players are there at 9 and they rate out that high i take them without any doubt.

[AZ54]

On 3/18/2024 at 5:58 PM, dawhizz said:

I like Verse a little more than Turner, but like both. Chop’s lack of production scares me, as do Latu’s medical history. Adisa Isaac is a guy I like in the 2/3 range, but edge seems to drop off quite a bit after the 1st, imo. 

I like Turner a little more than Verse because of his elite quickness and bend.  He reminds me a lot of Von Miller and his speed to chase down plays from the backside is outstanding.  Verse is outstanding in his own right but is more of a power rusher.  So it might depend on what the team wants.   Both are really good against the run but Verse with his power is going to hold up better setting the edge.  I saw Kollman's breakdown of Verse last night and he said something that was interesting:  If you want to run a defense with 2-high safeties, which he said is done 50% of the time in the league, then you need a stout edge who can force run plays back inside.   I like Latu a lot as well, he's very technical with his hands and strong.   Draft any of these top 3 and we're a much better defense.   After them it is slim pickings in this draft.  

I don't see Chop having the length needed for our scheme as a run defender.  He will likely fit in as an OLB in a 3-5 front.  

As far as draft day strategy it all depends on how the top 8 go but I still prefer to get the DE over the WR (assuming MHJ and Nabors are gone).   We can find a very good WR with a 2nd Rd grade in the 3rd Rd.   A WR3, with potential to become a WR2 in the future, is all we need right now to complete the starting group.  We could use 4th WR to build depth but with no trade down off #1 those wishlist items are becoming just that....wishes.     

[AZ54]

8 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said:

i'm not so sure. with all the qb's going in the top ten this is pushing down other first class draft picks down like DE or even LOT.

if you get a chance to draft a blue chip player at one of those two positions you HAVE to take it. it could be years before we are drafting in the top 10 again and those premium players are the top of the list (other than qb) for building your franchise long term. you can pick up good+ receivers in future drafts in the middle of the first or even in free agency. you will rarely find premium LOT's or DE's in those slots.

also we have seen what difference a good+ defensive end can do for our defense and overall chances to get to a superbowl. that means if sweat was injured there is nobody to fill in his shoes and it's very doubtful we would find that kind of player from a team like washington again. you would way overpay to replace him in free agency or a trade.

the same could be said of LOT. if there is a premium blue chipper to replace our LOT that gives you a lot of trading power to other teams.

if either of those type of players are there at 9 and they rate out that high i take them without any doubt.

Agreed on the roster building at premium positions.  You can find good WRs in Rd 1 to Rd 2 in most drafts.