2025 Bears Draft Picks

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I think if I had the choice - I take the top de if I like them and than find a way to trade up for a wideout (maybe move down 3 spots and get you enough ammo to pair two picks and get into 2nd round for a wideout that would normally grade in round 1. 
 

Reality is more elite edges are top picks than wideouts - so I will trust Bears can draft and find a wideout and if Caleb is legit he can actually be multiplier who helps develop wideouts. 
 

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

10 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said:

i'm not so sure. with all the qb's going in the top ten this is pushing down other first class draft picks down like DE or even LOT.

if you get a chance to draft a blue chip player at one of those two positions you HAVE to take it. it could be years before we are drafting in the top 10 again and those premium players are the top of the list (other than qb) for building your franchise long term. you can pick up good+ receivers in future drafts in the middle of the first or even in free agency. you will rarely find premium LOT's or DE's in those slots.

also we have seen what difference a good+ defensive end can do for our defense and overall chances to get to a superbowl. that means if sweat was injured there is nobody to fill in his shoes and it's very doubtful we would find that kind of player from a team like washington again. you would way overpay to replace him in free agency or a trade.

the same could be said of LOT. if there is a premium blue chipper to replace our LOT that gives you a lot of trading power to other teams.

if either of those type of players are there at 9 and they rate out that high i take them without any doubt.

Very well said. 

[BearFan PHX]

I agree on the idea that DE is more of a premium position than WR in the abstract.

I also agree that the most important thing is to take talent, so a gamebreaking WR is more important than a decent but unspectacular DE, and vice versa too of course.

I see us taking a DE, LOT or WR (or Bowers?) at #9, and possibly trading back.

I just think that given how we've seen talented QBs fail, that putting that pick on offense helps Caleb out. And i am less concerned with a 2024 Superbowl run. If I could only have this team for this year, Im looking at a DE for sure, but if the window is really 2025 and beyind, then you are gonna get that WR and DE both in the next two years, and again talent being equal, I see the WR being more beneficial because they can have a moment to grow under Allen and develop chemistry with Williams.

But again, all the points you guys made about talent are what should guide us. LOT, DE or WR whoever grades out as a blue chip starter, and if none do, then you trade down maybe to a position where someone still is, like center or Thomas at WR etc.

If Alt or Fashanu are there (depending again on how you grade them) that wouldnt be a bad pick at all either. You grow your QB and LOT together, and then youve got something special with Wright on the other side for the next 10 years.

But if youve got a blue chip grade on a DE, no problem taking that guy either. Not best in this draft, but true impact player projection? That's a good pick.

[adam]

The more I think about it, the more I think the Bears are taking a player at #9 or if anything only trading down a few picks. My assumption is the Bears do not expect to be back in the top 10 any time soon, so if you are that high, get the blue chip player, because you will always have a chance to draft a guy between 20-30 every year.

Guys I would select if at #9: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Alt, or Murphy.

If they are all gone at #9, I am ok trading down, but would need to get an Edge, Bowers, or Newton, and depending on what number they move down to, even consider JPJ. As long as it is WR/DL/OL it fills a need.

[BearFan PHX]

19 minutes ago, adam said:

The more I think about it, the more I think the Bears are taking a player at #9 or if anything only trading down a few picks. My assumption is the Bears do not expect to be back in the top 10 any time soon, so if you are that high, get the blue chip player, because you will always have a chance to draft a guy between 20-30 every year.

Guys I would select if at #9: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Alt, or Murphy.

If they are all gone at #9, I am ok trading down, but would need to get an Edge, Bowers, or Newton, and depending on what number they move down to, even consider JPJ. As long as it is WR/DL/OL it fills a need.

I think this is all right on.

Some people like Fashanu better. Some people like Turner better.

For sure one of the five you just listed, or their alternates I just named (if they are preferred) will be there at #9.

We are in such a good position.

[dawhizz]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I like Turner a little more than Verse because of his elite quickness and bend.  He reminds me a lot of Von Miller and his speed to chase down plays from the backside is outstanding.  Verse is outstanding in his own right but is more of a power rusher.  So it might depend on what the team wants.   Both are really good against the run but Verse with his power is going to hold up better setting the edge.  I saw Kollman's breakdown of Verse last night and he said something that was interesting:  If you want to run a defense with 2-high safeties, which he said is done 50% of the time in the league, then you need a stout edge who can force run plays back inside.   I like Latu a lot as well, he's very technical with his hands and strong.   Draft any of these top 3 and we're a much better defense.   After them it is slim pickings in this draft.  

I don't see Chop having the length needed for our scheme as a run defender.  He will likely fit in as an OLB in a 3-5 front.  

As far as draft day strategy it all depends on how the top 8 go but I still prefer to get the DE over the WR (assuming MHJ and Nabors are gone).   We can find a very good WR with a 2nd Rd grade in the 3rd Rd.   A WR3, with potential to become a WR2 in the future, is all we need right now to complete the starting group.  We could use 4th WR to build depth but with no trade down off #1 those wishlist items are becoming just that....wishes.     

I read somewhere that Eberflus likes bigger DEs, so I wonder if Darius Robinson might be a target in a trade-down scenario as well.

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

We are in such a good position.

Yes we are.

No matter what happens at 9, 75, and 122, this ends up as a pretty epic draft:

1st Round - Caleb Williams + #9
2nd Round - Montez Sweat
3rd Round - #75
4th Round - Keenan Allen + #122
5th Round - Ryan Bates

Basically 5 starters + a 4th rounder and Ryan Bates.

[adam]

Also, this is how 2025 is lining up (estimates):

1st Round CHI #20 - Projected Starter
2nd Round (CAR #37) - Projected Starter
2nd Round CHI #52 - Projected Starter
3rd Round CHI #84
4th Round CHI #120
5th Round CHI #155
6th Round (PIT #194)
6th Round CHI #196
6th Round (MIA #200)

and to put the 2 drafts into perspective, the 2024 draft is worth 4615 pts, the 2025 draft as listed above is worth 2,050 pts. 

With 9 picks, I say there is less of a need to trade #9 unless everyone on your board for that value is gone, which is extremely unlikely. 

[adam]

With 5 picks between 120ish-200ish, I could see Poles using one or two of them on a player trade or even to move into this year's draft if he really wanted to. Hearing how weak the draft is after Round 3, it does make sense to hold onto next year's as it will be deeper.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Also, this is how 2025 is lining up (estimates):

1st Round CHI #20 - Projected Starter
2nd Round (CAR #37) - Projected Starter
2nd Round CHI #52 - Projected Starter
3rd Round CHI #84
4th Round CHI #120
5th Round CHI #155
6th Round (PIT #194)
6th Round CHI #196
6th Round (MIA #200)

and to put the 2 drafts into perspective, the 2024 draft is worth 4615 pts, the 2025 draft as listed above is worth 2,050 pts. 

With 9 picks, I say there is less of a need to trade #9 unless everyone on your board for that value is gone, which is extremely unlikely. 

right, because you are looking 2 years out, which i think is the right way to do this.

[adam]

11 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

right, because you are looking 2 years out, which i think is the right way to do this.

Yeah, and if you think about it, some trades are next year's picks. So it does make a lot of sense. 

Also, I think if you rush it, that is when you over-extend and everything crashes down. Just because the Bears have 2 picks in the top 9 instead of one pick in the first and one pick in the second, doesn't mean you need to trade down. 

Some people don't like the "traded for player" argument, so even if you removed the traded for players, the Bears draft would still be:

1st Round = #1
2nd+5th+6th+7th = #9
3rd Round = #75
4th Round = #122

I think everyone in a heartbeat would trade a 2nd rounder, 5th, 6th, and 7th for #9, everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. 

[Mongo3451]

19 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

But again, all the points you guys made about talent are what should guide us. LOT, DE or WR whoever grades out as a blue chip starter, and if none do, then you trade down maybe to a position where someone still is, like center or Thomas at WR etc.

I agree with everyone is saying about LOT and EDGE.   What has Veach done?  That may narrow us down to Poles.  My guess is EDGE.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Yeah, and if you think about it, some trades are next year's picks. So it does make a lot of sense. 

Also, I think if you rush it, that is when you over-extend and everything crashes down. Just because the Bears have 2 picks in the top 9 instead of one pick in the first and one pick in the second, doesn't mean you need to trade down. 

Some people don't like the "traded for player" argument, so even if you removed the traded for players, the Bears draft would still be:

1st Round = #1
2nd+5th+6th+7th = #9
3rd Round = #75
4th Round = #122

I think everyone in a heartbeat would trade a 2nd rounder, 5th, 6th, and 7th for #9, everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. 

great way to look at it. hadnt thought of that before or seen that anywhere else.

[Mongo3451]

Just read an article in The Atlantic, talking about how this Bears era feels different.  When I saw the headline, I got the happy feeling vibe.  When I started reading, I got the same old McCaskey family vibe.  George talked about how he was at the combine when Poles and Flus met with Caleb.  Of course, good ol George had to say that he stayed in the back of the room and kept his mouth shut.  My question is, why the hell are you there in the first place?  Warren wasn't there.  Why does George need to be?  He says all the time that it's Ryan and Matt's job.  I just don't like any McCaskey being involved in talent conversations or acquisitions.  Just stay the hell out of it.  It's crazy, I like what George had to say about Caleb and Poles and Flus, but just couldn't stand it coming from him.  It just shouldn't have, given our history of them F'ing things up.  Just be an owner George, you know nothing about the rest of it.

[Stinger226]

52 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Just read an article in The Atlantic, talking about how this Bears era feels different.  When I saw the headline, I got the happy feeling vibe.  When I started reading, I got the same old McCaskey family vibe.  George talked about how he was at the combine when Poles and Flus met with Caleb.  Of course, good ol George had to say that he stayed in the back of the room and kept his mouth shut.  My question is, why the hell are you there in the first place?  Warren wasn't there.  Why does George need to be?  He says all the time that it's Ryan and Matt's job.  I just don't like any McCaskey being involved in talent conversations or acquisitions.  Just stay the hell out of it.  It's crazy, I like what George had to say about Caleb and Poles and Flus, but just couldn't stand it coming from him.  It just shouldn't have, given our history of them F'ing things up.  Just be an owner George, you know nothing about the rest of it.

I don't think he's involved in any personal decisions. Once they brought Warren in, it walled off the family. When Poles makes decisions he uses Warren as his sounding board. I don't get the impression Poles is a answer to guy. He makes the decisions and Warren gets his input. 

They are low on picks and at nine they will get a WR that drops or take the best DE in the draft. I think Verse more fits the true DE position, so if he can drop a few stops and still add a 3 rd round pick, then grabs Verse. In the third with two picks they can grab a WR and OL. I don't think LOT will be in play because of the progress of Braxton. Not saying he's going to be top 10 but close enough to keep him. If you have  a QB that has a quick release, better vision, and good pocket awareness, that will make a 15-18 ranked LT will be acceptable. 

After the draft they may be able to shore up depth with cuts by other teams. 

[Mongo3451]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't think he's involved in any personal decisions. Once they brought Warren in, it walled off the family.

Why was he there then?  He even stated in the interview, that it was past his bedtime.  It also came up, somewhere else, that he was consulted before the Keenan Allen trade.  From my perspective, a billionaire cannot be a fly on the wall. They always get their taste.  I find it impossible for Poles and Flus to be their authentic selves knowing George is lurking.

[Daventry]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Why was he there then?  He even stated in the interview, that it was past his bedtime.  It also came up, somewhere else, that he was consulted before the Keenan Allen trade.  From my perspective, a billionaire cannot be a fly on the wall. They always get their taste.  I find it impossible for Poles and Flus to be their authentic selves knowing George is lurking.

I feel exactly the same way.  That family are poor owners, if any family could screw up a good thing it’s them.  Let’s hope they don’t get too involved.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Why was he there then?  He even stated in the interview, that it was past his bedtime.  It also came up, somewhere else, that he was consulted before the Keenan Allen trade.  From my perspective, a billionaire cannot be a fly on the wall. They always get their taste.  I find it impossible for Poles and Flus to be their authentic selves knowing George is lurking.

I would think they would tell the owners before they go public with a big move. That doesn't mean they had to get their approval. Doesn't the owners go to the winter meetings? That's why his face is visible right now. 

[Pixote]

Yes, Owners do attend the winter meetings.

I'm not worried about George interfering. I think by hiring Warren, they have shown they plan to allow Warren/Poles to manage the team.

 

[adam]

Here are the top rated DLine players in RAS+PFF Ranking for each draft position:

At 9-14:
Laiatu Latu        DE    UCLA        9.32/11
Byron Murphy II        DT    Texas        9.20/13
Jared Verse        DE    Florida State    9.56/17

2nd Rounder (if trade):
Braden Fiske        DT    Florida State    9.89/38
Chop Robinson        DE    Penn State    9.71/43
Ruke Orhorhoro        DT    Clemson        9.92/54
Marshawn Kneeland    DT    W Michigan    9.54/58

At 75:
Gabriel Murphy   DE    UCLA        9.23/81
Michael Hall Jr.    DT    Ohio State    9.55/104

At 122:
Maason Smith  DT    Louisiana State    8.99/148
Logan Lee        DT    Iowa        9.15    151

 

So there are some options, especially if they trade down from #9.

[Stinger226]

On 3/24/2024 at 1:08 AM, AZ54 said:

I like Turner a little more than Verse because of his elite quickness and bend.  He reminds me a lot of Von Miller and his speed to chase down plays from the backside is outstanding.  Verse is outstanding in his own right but is more of a power rusher.  So it might depend on what the team wants.   Both are really good against the run but Verse with his power is going to hold up better setting the edge.  I saw Kollman's breakdown of Verse last night and he said something that was interesting:  If you want to run a defense with 2-high safeties, which he said is done 50% of the time in the league, then you need a stout edge who can force run plays back inside.   I like Latu a lot as well, he's very technical with his hands and strong.   Draft any of these top 3 and we're a much better defense.   After them it is slim pickings in this draft.  

I don't see Chop having the length needed for our scheme as a run defender.  He will likely fit in as an OLB in a 3-5 front.  

As far as draft day strategy it all depends on how the top 8 go but I still prefer to get the DE over the WR (assuming MHJ and Nabors are gone).   We can find a very good WR with a 2nd Rd grade in the 3rd Rd.   A WR3, with potential to become a WR2 in the future, is all we need right now to complete the starting group.  We could use 4th WR to build depth but with no trade down off #1 those wishlist items are becoming just that....wishes.     

In the third they will still be a few good gets at WR, whether Poles can identity it remains to be seen. After the top 4 edge it falls off quickly. 

Does the new coaches lift the play of Tyler Scott and Colin Johnson?

Does the new DL coaches help the young players enough to get major contributions? Pickens, Dexter, Cowart, Jacob Martin , D Robinson, Michael Dwumfour, Daniel Hardy, Khalid Kareem?

Do we ever get a lift from a lower  roster spot ? They've already on the team and Hicks emerged from a nobody to making the pro bowl when he was here.

[BearFan PHX]

Waddle and Silvy talking today about something that I'd read before, but "bears" repeating.

A few things come into play with this draft.

First is that apparently there is an unusual amount of good players electing to stay one more year in college due to the NIL money, resulting in a draft with the fewest underclassmen in memory. If this is a new but ongoing trend then everything will be back to normal next year and going forward as players stay an extra year each year, then this one draft has a deficit, kind of like a leap year.

The second thing is that Poles said that if they don't trade back this year, they would still have made 25 picks in three years, which averages out to 8+ a year, so the roster is good in terms of age progression if we dont trade back.

In effect, because of the talent deficit, and needs/availability of some free agents, we basically drafted Sweat with the 2nd round pick, Bates with the 5th round pick, and having traded away the 6th and 7th rounder as well.

It feels like there is a solid justification for picking a blue chipper with that 9th overall pick, without feeling pressure to trade down to get more players.

Now that said, there is every reason to trade the #9 pick down a few slots, if the player youre targeting is likely to still be there. If, for example, the top three WRs go, and the next guy on your list projects to go 15th, you might take him at #13 instead of #9, and if that nets you another 3rd rounder, then that's great. But the strategy would be making that trade to avoid overpaying for that blue chipper, not having to trade down because you need that 3rd round pick.

This all feels very professional, and well planned out, including having extra picks next year. Either we are getting really lucky, or we finally have a great GM in the building, or both.

[adam]

23 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Waddle and Silvy talking today about something that I'd read before, but "bears" repeating.

A few things come into play with this draft.

First is that apparently there is an unusual amount of good players electing to stay one more year in college due to the NIL money, resulting in a draft with the fewest underclassmen in memory. If this is a new but ongoing trend then everything will be back to normal next year and going forward as players stay an extra year each year, then this one draft has a deficit, kind of like a leap year.

The second thing is that Poles said that if they don't trade back this year, they would still have made 25 picks in three years, which averages out to 8+ a year, so the roster is good in terms of age progression if we dont trade back.

In effect, because of the talent deficit, and needs/availability of some free agents, we basically drafted Sweat with the 2nd round pick, Bates with the 5th round pick, and having traded away the 6th and 7th rounder as well.

It feels like there is a solid justification for picking a blue chipper with that 9th overall pick, without feeling pressure to trade down to get more players.

Now that said, there is every reason to trade the #9 pick down a few slots, if the player youre targeting is likely to still be there. If, for example, the top three WRs go, and the next guy on your list projects to go 15th, you might take him at #13 instead of #9, and if that nets you another 3rd rounder, then that's great. But the strategy would be making that trade to avoid overpaying for that blue chipper, not having to trade down because you need that 3rd round pick.

This all feels very professional, and well planned out, including having extra picks next year. Either we are getting really lucky, or we finally have a great GM in the building, or both.

Also, Sweat is on a long term deal which equates to a rookie's deal for the 2nd rounder. Bates has two years, and if he plays well, will probably be extended. So the only wild card is Allen but the Bears have an extra 4th. So the Bears don't really lose any roster flexibility with the loss of picks.

The Bears had 10 picks last year and Williamson and Bell are gone. So they are already down to 8 after one year. So having 10+ picks feels good, but they can't and won't all play. Some won't make the team or just become PS fodder. 

The lack of depth of this draft makes using the later round picks on known commodities a brilliant strategy. 

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, adam said:

Also, Sweat is on a long term deal which equates to a rookie's deal for the 2nd rounder. Bates has two years, and if he plays well, will probably be extended. So the only wild card is Allen but the Bears have an extra 4th. So the Bears don't really lose any roster flexibility with the loss of picks.

The Bears had 10 picks last year and Williamson and Bell are gone. So they are already down to 8 after one year. So having 10+ picks feels good, but they can't and won't all play. Some won't make the team or just become PS fodder. 

The lack of depth of this draft makes using the later round picks on known commodities a brilliant strategy. 

yup

[Stinger226]

Every teams board are different but the top 15 are probably pretty consistent but maybe not in the same order. As it plays out , 5 QBs may be taken in the top 15, has to leave us plenty to pick from if we only trade back in that range. An extra 3 will get us a rotational DL or future OL starter but is depth this year. At 9 we will get the best D player on the board. It has to be an DL pick.

( Unless top 3 WR is there.)