Jayden Daniels?

[BearFan PHX]

53 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

We all have the same facts in the world, yet the world is composed of billions of different opinions.  His is just one and he's welcome to it.  This is actually why I read this board because people will force me to see things from a different perspective.  Some change my mind, others do not.  I'm not married to the need for someone to see things my way, I simply accept the differences and see how things play out.  So sometimes they are wrong and sometimes I'm wrong, and maybe more often than not I'm wrong.  Despite all that, it is still possible to support an argument without declaring a "flaw" in someone else just because you disagree.  

there are lots of things to have opinions about. That Justin had a problem pulling the trigger isnt an opinion. It's a well chronicled fact.

I am happy to admit that most things on here are opinion. Just because I have one doesnt mean I think it's the only one, or that everyone must agree - that's some kind of projection on me, but it isnt what i think.

But at the same time, Im not going to live in a post modern context where nothing is real and anything can be true. That's BS. Justin has a problem playing in structure. Every pundit says it. His college scouting says it. The fact that we traded him, and what his worth was to us and the rest of the league says it. It is an incontrovertible fact.

And so, pretending that there is some character flaw in me because I declare a fact a fact, is nonsense, and gratuitous. It is just is.

When I say Jayden Daniels doesnt make reads or turn his head after the snap thats a claim Im making that can be proven right or wrong. There is no subjective nature to whether someone turned their head or not - they either did or they didnt, and you can count how many times each happens and get a sense of the pattern. Thats not an opinion.

These ARE opinions:

Daniels will grow and overcome this tendency and be amazing in the NFL
Daniels is going to lead a team to a superbowl
Daniels is going to score more points than any QB ever did

I cant say anyone saying those things are wrong. Those are unknowns. I can have contrary opinions, but they would just be opinions.

But if I say Justin wore the number 1 on his jersey, thats not an opinion. And neither is what Im saying about Fields or Daniels ability to go through progressions. They are easily seen on tape over and over.

Taking shots at me personally (when that happens) is not a substitute for doing ones own homework. Maybe youll tell me "youre wrong I watched a game where Daniels made tons of second reads" and that would be a substantive claim, so I'd say "cool what game was it" and then on your recommendation, Id actually go watch the game to evaluate your claim. I wouldnt say "well youre not Kurt Warner so what do you know?" Id just be glad for the claim to go learn. And then if I saw it too Id say "well thats amazing, youre right in this game he did it - so I guess he has that capability" and then Id go look at even more games to see how common it was. Maybe the games Ive seen were a poor sample. Im totally open to that.

I mean, I change my mind all the time. I wasnt sold on Caleb a couple months ago. Then i watched several hours of all 22 film, and that changed my mind. I have no reason to not like Jayden Daniels. He throws a beautiful ball. But I watched the tape and saw what I saw.

So Id please ask people to stop rebutting my tape based claims with personal responses like "youre not Kurt Warner" or whatever. Or Ill just start responding it kind, and it can be like a kindergarden in here. "no YOURE a poop" "no YOU are" - it's not an argument that expands anyones understanding of anything.

I also would like if anyone who said I was a Justin hater because there is something wrong with ME, that I am angry, or mean etc to admit that what I said about him turned out to be true, that Poles and the NFL agreed with me, so since I wasnt wrong, it wasnt coming from some bad character, and simply that I saw something in the tape.

But I wont hold my breath.
 

[Stinger226]

15 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

there are lots of things to have opinions about. That Justin had a problem pulling the trigger isnt an opinion. It's a well chronicled fact.

I am happy to admit that most things on here are opinion. Just because I have one doesnt mean I think it's the only one, or that everyone must agree - that's some kind of projection on me, but it isnt what i think.

But at the same time, Im not going to live in a post modern context where nothing is real and anything can be true. That's BS. Justin has a problem playing in structure. Every pundit says it. His college scouting says it. The fact that we traded him, and what his worth was to us and the rest of the league says it. It is an incontrovertible fact.

And so, pretending that there is some character flaw in me because I declare a fact a fact, is nonsense, and gratuitous. It is just is.

When I say Jayden Daniels doesnt make reads or turn his head after the snap thats a claim Im making that can be proven right or wrong. There is no subjective nature to whether someone turned their head or not - they either did or they didnt, and you can count how many times each happens and get a sense of the pattern. Thats not an opinion.

These ARE opinions:

Daniels will grow and overcome this tendency and be amazing in the NFL
Daniels is going to lead a team to a superbowl
Daniels is going to score more points than any QB ever did

I cant say anyone saying those things are wrong. Those are unknowns. I can have contrary opinions, but they would just be opinions.

But if I say Justin wore the number 1 on his jersey, thats not an opinion. And neither is what Im saying about Fields or Daniels ability to go through progressions. They are easily seen on tape over and over.

Taking shots at me personally (when that happens) is not a substitute for doing ones own homework. Maybe youll tell me "youre wrong I watched a game where Daniels made tons of second reads" and that would be a substantive claim, so I'd say "cool what game was it" and then on your recommendation, Id actually go watch the game to evaluate your claim. I wouldnt say "well youre not Kurt Warner so what do you know?" Id just be glad for the claim to go learn. And then if I saw it too Id say "well thats amazing, youre right in this game he did it - so I guess he has that capability" and then Id go look at even more games to see how common it was. Maybe the games Ive seen were a poor sample. Im totally open to that.

I mean, I change my mind all the time. I wasnt sold on Caleb a couple months ago. Then i watched several hours of all 22 film, and that changed my mind. I have no reason to not like Jayden Daniels. He throws a beautiful ball. But I watched the tape and saw what I saw.

So Id please ask people to stop rebutting my tape based claims with personal responses like "youre not Kurt Warner" or whatever. Or Ill just start responding it kind, and it can be like a kindergarden in here. "no YOURE a poop" "no YOU are" - it's not an argument that expands anyones understanding of anything.

I also would like if anyone who said I was a Justin hater because there is something wrong with ME, that I am angry, or mean etc to admit that what I said about him turned out to be true, that Poles and the NFL agreed with me, so since I wasnt wrong, it wasnt coming from some bad character, and simply that I saw something in the tape.

But I wont hold my breath.
 

To be fair 54 was just sticking up for me when you said ( i don't know how to do something ) yet you watch two hours of tape and you're an expert. No one was taking a shot at you, it's just most people don't get personal on  here but you often do. 

I was serious when I asked what you see to know if a play was thrown to the first read, second read or so on. Sometimes is obvious but don't think that applies all the time. 

The conflict between Bearsfan and me is what it is and I don't need support from other members. I just ignore it now and  still just  have discussions. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

When a guy is looking right at an open receiver, and that open receiver is hitting his break before any others, and Justin's hips are pointed toward that receiver, and his arm is up to throw - it isn't hard to know that was his first read.

In that All-22 you asked me to watch I saw a handful of times where Williams had open receivers that were missed before he did a dump off to another location.  Were those his primary reads?  Hard to say.  Warner saw and commented a few times himself on them.   

 

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

And then you read a ton of people writing the same thing, and then you go back to college scouts saying the same thing.

Like how Williams has been noted to hold onto the ball longer than Justin at times?  

[BearFan PHX]

43 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

In that All-22 you asked me to watch I saw a handful of times where Williams had open receivers that were missed before he did a dump off to another location.  Were those his primary reads?  Hard to say.  Warner saw and commented a few times himself on them.  

Yes. But the crossers aren't primary reads. But even if they were, that was an example of Williams looking around, reading more than one receiver. Daniels never (seldom?) does that. A very fair criticism of Williams is that he will have to learn not to be so greedy and take what the NFL defenses give him, and just move the chains instead of looking for a home run all the time. But he was definitely looking off safeties and swivelling his head around in the pocket looking at various receivers as their routes came open.

And there is a time to run and create too. Williams, Daniels and Fields all do that well.

But my point is that Daniels never looks away from his primary read. Remember when Mitch was doing that early on and throwing interceptions? Every QB has to learn not to stare down the primary receiver in the NFL. And Im not saying Daniels cant learn that, just that right now, he doesn't the way Williams, Maye and McCarthy do. He has a better arm than any of them though in terms of strength AND accuracy.

This isnt player love or player hate, they all have plusses and minuses, and projecting them into the NFL and what they can learn there is certainly a guess. But you can see Williams is NFL ready, and Daniels isn't in terms of processing and reading. Honestly, Daniels is a lot like Justin. All that good stuff, and processing problems. But they are different too, when the first route is open Daniels rips it in tempo. He just doesnt ever go to a second read when it isnt, he runs, and he stares down the #1 route. But he could learn to overcome that, some do some dont.
 

50 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Like how Williams has been noted to hold onto the ball longer than Justin at times?  

If you watch the film, you see that it's not like Justin, holding the ball 3 seconds consistently. Instead it's a lot of fase ball out quick reads, and some instances of manipulating the pocket like Rodgers does and holding it for 7 seconds before throwing downfield.

When Fields holds the ball, hes scrambling to the perimeter and making plays at the sideline. Williams does that too at times - they are both amazing at it.

BUt a lot of times when Williams is holding the ball, he's still in the pocket, having made a circle that drove the free defender back into one of his blockers. Aaron Rodgers does that too, it's a pretty cool trait, and hes still int he pocket waiting on a 40 yard route. Sometimes it's a big play, sometimes it's incomplete (because his long ball isnt as amazing as Daniels) but he's not scrambling, he still reading the long routes in structure.

And the fast release plays for Williams, of which there are many, some with multiple reads too - WR1bam WR2bam TEbam and the ball is out - are common on his film, he does it a lot - thats why he's NFL ready - average out with the longer plays he stays in the pocket to make a stat similar to Justins, but the "standard deviation" (the amount of difference in the data) is much different between them. Justin has a small standard deviation. All his plays are pretty close in time with the ball held, and Williams' have a large amount of standard deviation so that means some plays he holds the ball twice as long as Justin, and others not at all.

So you can glean from Justin's numbers that this is a problem he has, whereas you can clearly see Williams dos it fast all the time, so it's not a problem, he's just looking for home runs too much, which is what you do when your defense is giving up 35 points and more every week.

You might even say that Williams is Brett Favre in that way - looking for the big play too much, trying to do too much. He will have to learn to contain himself more in the NFL and make first downs. But we see lots of evidence of him doing that.

So then you ask yourself, between Williams and Daniels, both who have a ton of athleticism, and an edge in the arm and the legs to Daniels, do you think it is more likely to teach a guy to read defenses more, or to just dial it back down a bit to take first downs instead of so many big plays?

For me that makes Williams the better NFL QB, even as Daniels is the better arm and legs.

And unlike, say Bagent, who was really good at making decisions fast, but has a weaker arm, Williams is no slouch int he arm category, I just keep giving it to Daniels because he has such a true rocket.

Hopefully you see the balance and even handedness Im giving here. Not trying to oversell or bash either of them.

But for me, for NFL projection processing and playing the position running the offense, my list goes Williams, Maye, McCarthy and then Daniels.

Just watch some clips of Daniels. He will make a lot of great throws, Nabers is like always open, but just honestly ask yourself, on any plays do you see him turning his head at all from the snap until the throw? Either looking off a safety or going to a second read? It has to be a play he ends up throwing it from the pocket on, scrambles and running dont count for this quesation of course.

And if you do find games with a lot of it - tell me id LOVE to see it, and even change my mind. I mean, if i saw a lot of him doing it, my overall opinion of him would change a LOT.

 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yes. But the crossers aren't primary reads. But even if they were, that was an example of Williams looking around, reading more than one receiver. Daniels never (seldom?) does that. A very fair criticism of Williams is that he will have to learn not to be so greedy and take what the NFL defenses give him, and just move the chains instead of looking for a home run all the time. But he was definitely looking off safeties and swivelling his head around in the pocket looking at various receivers as their routes came open.

And there is a time to run and create too. Williams, Daniels and Fields all do that well.

But my point is that Daniels never looks away from his primary read. Remember when Mitch was doing that early on and throwing interceptions? Every QB has to learn not to stare down the primary receiver in the NFL. And Im not saying Daniels cant learn that, just that right now, he doesn't the way Williams, Maye and McCarthy do. He has a better arm than any of them though in terms of strength AND accuracy.

This isnt player love or player hate, they all have plusses and minuses, and projecting them into the NFL and what they can learn there is certainly a guess. But you can see Williams is NFL ready, and Daniels isn't in terms of processing and reading. Honestly, Daniels is a lot like Justin. All that good stuff, and processing problems. But they are different too, when the first route is open Daniels rips it in tempo. He just doesnt ever go to a second read when it isnt, he runs, and he stares down the #1 route. But he could learn to overcome that, some do some dont.
 

If you watch the film, you see that it's not like Justin, holding the ball 3 seconds consistently. Instead it's a lot of fase ball out quick reads, and some instances of manipulating the pocket like Rodgers does and holding it for 7 seconds before throwing downfield.

When Fields holds the ball, hes scrambling to the perimeter and making plays at the sideline. Williams does that too at times - they are both amazing at it.

BUt a lot of times when Williams is holding the ball, he's still in the pocket, having made a circle that drove the free defender back into one of his blockers. Aaron Rodgers does that too, it's a pretty cool trait, and hes still int he pocket waiting on a 40 yard route. Sometimes it's a big play, sometimes it's incomplete (because his long ball isnt as amazing as Daniels) but he's not scrambling, he still reading the long routes in structure.

And the fast release plays for Williams, of which there are many, some with multiple reads too - WR1bam WR2bam TEbam and the ball is out - are common on his film, he does it a lot - thats why he's NFL ready - average out with the longer plays he stays in the pocket to make a stat similar to Justins, but the "standard deviation" (the amount of difference in the data) is much different between them. Justin has a small standard deviation. All his plays are pretty close in time with the ball held, and Williams' have a large amount of standard deviation so that means some plays he holds the ball twice as long as Justin, and others not at all.

So you can glean from Justin's numbers that this is a problem he has, whereas you can clearly see Williams dos it fast all the time, so it's not a problem, he's just looking for home runs too much, which is what you do when your defense is giving up 35 points and more every week.

You might even say that Williams is Brett Favre in that way - looking for the big play too much, trying to do too much. He will have to learn to contain himself more in the NFL and make first downs. But we see lots of evidence of him doing that.

So then you ask yourself, between Williams and Daniels, both who have a ton of athleticism, and an edge in the arm and the legs to Daniels, do you think it is more likely to teach a guy to read defenses more, or to just dial it back down a bit to take first downs instead of so many big plays?

For me that makes Williams the better NFL QB, even as Daniels is the better arm and legs.

And unlike, say Bagent, who was really good at making decisions fast, but has a weaker arm, Williams is no slouch int he arm category, I just keep giving it to Daniels because he has such a true rocket.

Hopefully you see the balance and even handedness Im giving here. Not trying to oversell or bash either of them.

But for me, for NFL projection processing and playing the position running the offense, my list goes Williams, Maye, McCarthy and then Daniels.

Just watch some clips of Daniels. He will make a lot of great throws, Nabers is like always open, but just honestly ask yourself, on any plays do you see him turning his head at all from the snap until the throw? Either looking off a safety or going to a second read? It has to be a play he ends up throwing it from the pocket on, scrambles and running dont count for this quesation of course.

And if you do find games with a lot of it - tell me id LOVE to see it, and even change my mind. I mean, if i saw a lot of him doing it, my overall opinion of him would change a LOT.

 

A lot of what you say is true but when you use words like ( never) that indicates he can't. Now I get they have  tendancies but they don't do it all the time. Sometimes plays are set up go to one player, every play is not a progression. Your evidence of he doesn't do progressions well is because he doesn't turn his head enough?  That's a stretch. 

[BearFan PHX]

41 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

A lot of what you say is true but when you use words like ( never) that indicates he can't. Now I get they have  tendancies but they don't do it all the time. Sometimes plays are set up go to one player, every play is not a progression. Your evidence of he doesn't do progressions well is because he doesn't turn his head enough?  That's a stretch. 

you gotta be kidding. immediately after using the word "never" I followed it with "(seldom?)"

And yes, when a QB stares down the reciever you can see it. When he turns his head to look around you can see that too. Watch the film, youll see.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

you gotta be kidding. immediately after using the word "never" I followed it with "(seldom?)"

And yes, when a QB stares down the reciever you can see it. When he turns his head to look around you can see that too. Watch the film, youll see.

I never get picky with words but you use the word (never)  and then (seldom)  , then I'm supposed to guess what you mean? They don't have the same meaning.  You could make things easier to understand you if you took time to proof read your posts. Then you don't like it if somebody says anything. 

So far I have watched 3 games of Daniels, he does focus on Wrs but does not do it all the time. I'm going to watch the Wisconsin game and count how many times he focused on one WR, and how many times he didn't. Then I can be clear Instead of throwing out unknown stats. 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

you gotta be kidding. immediately after using the word "never" I followed it with "(seldom?)"

And yes, when a QB stares down the reciever you can see it. When he turns his head to look around you can see that too. Watch the film, youll see.

I never get picky with words but you use the word (never)  and then (seldom)  , then I'm supposed to guess what you mean? They don't have the same meaning.  You could make things easier to understand you if you took time to proof read your posts. Then you don't like it if somebody says anything. 

So far I have watched 3 games of Daniels, he does focus on Wrs but does not do it all the time. I'm going to watch the Wisconsin game and count how many times he focused on one WR, and how many times he didn't. Then I can be clear Instead of throwing out unknown stats. 

[Stinger226]

If you want to watch Daniels and see what kind of passer he is, here is all his pass plays in the Florida State game. Doesn't appear to have very many flaws IMO

I also watched Old Miss and Arkansas games.

 

[adam]

17 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If you want to watch Daniels and see what kind of passer he is, here is all his pass plays in the Florida State game. Doesn't appear to have very many flaws IMO

I also watched Old Miss and Arkansas games.

 

I stopped after the bad overthrow to the RB in the flat at 1:12. There may be some awesome plays after that, but in the first minute, I didn't see any NFL throws to be honest. Check downs, first reads, wide open uncovered receivers. Nothing special to me.

[Stinger226]

47 minutes ago, adam said:

I stopped after the bad overthrow to the RB in the flat at 1:12. There may be some awesome plays after that, but in the first minute, I didn't see any NFL throws to be honest. Check downs, first reads, wide open uncovered receivers. Nothing special to me.

Small sample size. 

[BearFan PHX]

11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I never get picky with words but you use the word (never)  and then (seldom)  , then I'm supposed to guess what you mean? They don't have the same meaning.  You could make things easier to understand you if you took time to proof read your posts. Then you don't like it if somebody says anything. 

So far I have watched 3 games of Daniels, he does focus on Wrs but does not do it all the time. I'm going to watch the Wisconsin game and count how many times he focused on one WR, and how many times he didn't. Then I can be clear Instead of throwing out unknown stats. 

I was saying "almost never" and I used the word "never" and then followed it with (seldom?) to mean that i dont actually mean mathematically never, just really rare.

I wrote it exactly as I meant it. It isnt a typo, and it doesnt mean I think the words mean the same thing. It meant that I was tipping my hat to the fact that I was using the word never in a slang way and not a mathematical one.

Thank you for watching tape AND saying which game it was, I will watch it too - if you share a link we can watch the same film.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I stopped after the bad overthrow to the RB in the flat at 1:12. There may be some awesome plays after that, but in the first minute, I didn't see any NFL throws to be honest. Check downs, first reads, wide open uncovered receivers. Nothing special to me.

fair. and Im not going to criticize any QB for taking his first read if it is open. And Daniels does deliver the ball quickly when he does. So that's a plus too.

But when you keep watching you see he doesnt make multiple reads, or look off safeties, and locks in on his primary read. Then he either throws it to them, or runs.

The end result is a lot of good completions to primary receivers, which looks good, but the deeper meaning is that he will have to grow a LOT to make it work in the NFL.

[BearFan PHX]

OK. Kurt Warner has released his Jayden Daniels breakdown.

I watched the first half of it, and wrote down what I saw for each play, timestamped so people can see what I mean and rebut it.

What I saw was a LOT of 1 WR reads. I was also surprised to see terrible ball placement often. Daniels slipped even lower in my eyes as a result of this video.

He seems to throw to his primary receiver whether they are open or not a lot, and rarely looks off safeties or makes progression reads.

For the purpose of this I am calling every target "WR" and the number after refers to their progression order. So WR1 would be the first read WR etc.

0:55
Locks on to WR1 all the way.
WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement.
Incomplete.

1:50
Locks on to WR1 all the way.
WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast.
Touchdown.

2:38
Locks on to WR1 all the way.
WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement.
Incomplete.
Same play as 0:55, same error, same result. Staring down WR is giving DB lead time to break on the ball.

3:17
Slight safety lookoff early, then locks onto WR1 long enough to draw DB attention.
WR1 is double covered, and WR2 is open. Ball comes out late to WR1, almost intercepted.
Incomplete.
Very similar to 1:50 - is he actually reading defenses, or just throwing to the primary receiver every time? And having deceptive good stats because his WRs were good and often open?

5:04
Locks on to WR1 all the way. (yes it's a TE or back, I'm gonna call every target WR in this)
WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast.
8 yd completion

5:59
Locks on to WR1 all the way.
WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement.
Incomplete.
Should have been a completion for a 1st down. But it was 4th down. Turnover on downs.

6:41
WR1 is not open. Other WRs are open late. Daniels looks around a bit, then runs.
My claim is that when the primary receiver isn't open, Daniels runs. He does look around a bit first here, but rarely finds a second read in the pocket.
Daniels scrambles, and makes something happen late outside the pocket out of structure. Terrible ball placement, excellent catch.
23 yd completion.

9:13
WR1 is covered. Daniels looks around. Finds a second read. WR2 is wide open. Terrible ball placement. Almost intercepted.
Incomplete.

10:27

Locks on to WR1, his eyes draws safety so WR1 is covered. Has other options but doesnt see them. Tries to run.
Sack or short gain.

12:01
WR1 is covered. Quick progression read from WR2 to WR3. Ball is out fast.
10 yd gain.
This is what you want to see in terms of reading progressions. Excellent play.

13:03
Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball out fast with good placement.
7 yd gain.

13:30
Locks on to WR1. WR1 is covered. Reads to outlet receiver. Ball out fast with good placement.
25 yd gain.
Easy play, but executed well.

14:11
Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast, but terrible placement.
Incomplete.

14:52
Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast with good placement.
10+ yard gain.

15:13
Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast with terrible placement.
WR1 was open. Had no chance to make a play. Possible WR1 ran bad route.
Incomplete.

16:32
Reads 2 WRs, ball is out fast with good placement.
Bad read, almost intercepted, but threads the needle.
Touchdown.

Figured I'd end on a "good" play.

Warner is saying the same things I am. If you hate me, but love Warner, then just accept it because he said it. The fact that I agree doesn't make him wrong?
 

 

[50england50]

Warner loves Caleb Williams wow factor, but in both of his videos he could not confirm what Caleb is doing with his progressions and he would have liked to have asked, “what did you see and why did you choose that option,” but conceded this had a lot to do with the USC’s system. 
 

There are ugly plays for all of the QBs that Warner has assessed. 
 

 

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, 50england50 said:

Warner loves Caleb Williams wow factor, but in both of his videos he could not confirm what Caleb is doing with his progressions and he would have liked to have asked, “what did you see and why did you choose that option,” but conceded this had a lot to do with the USC’s system. 
 

There are ugly plays for all of the QBs that Warner has assessed. 
 

 

its a matter of degree. you cant just equivocate that easily. I would say Warner is more lukewarm on Williams than JT OSullivan for example.

I enumerated each play for Daniels, so if you want to argue that Daniels is better, then please tell me which plays you disagree with? I dont mean that sarcastically, I mean it for real.

And do you see Williams being so inaccurate? He misses on a couple deep balls and sometimes when hes on the run, but generally Williams accuracy is superior.

Also, Williams is moving his head and making reads, where Daniels seldom does.

And Williams has an amazing compact release I haven't seen since Marino, and he manipulates the pocket like Rodgers.

[Mongo3451]

I'll honestly be good with Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy or Penix.  We're in a good spot...

[50england50]

I would agree that Williams videos seemed to show him being more accurate and having a better arm. 
 

However, I think it is hard to get an idea of Williams’ ability to read progressions because he is running a RPO instead of the system Daniels is running. Yes he goes what looks like his first read but it’s open. 
 

What Daniels does do is get the ball out quickly which is a weakness for Williams and something that was a criticism of Fields on this board. 
 

Daniels’ accuracy cannot be that bad because his completion % was 72.2 with Williams being 68.6. 
 

 

[50england50]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'll honestly be good with Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy or Penix.  We're in a good spot...

I agree. We just need to hope that Poles picks the right player. When Mahomes was drafted I think we didn’t pick him because he was considered a gun slinger and they didn’t want to take the risk. I hope we have learned and take the best player and hopefully we finally get a franchise QB.

[BearFan PHX]

23 minutes ago, 50england50 said:

I would agree that Williams videos seemed to show him being more accurate and having a better arm. 
 

However, I think it is hard to get an idea of Williams’ ability to read progressions because he is running a RPO instead of the system Daniels is running. Yes he goes what looks like his first read but it’s open. 
 

What Daniels does do is get the ball out quickly which is a weakness for Williams and something that was a criticism of Fields on this board. 
 

Daniels’ accuracy cannot be that bad because his completion % was 72.2 with Williams being 68.6. 
 

 

I agree with most of this, except that Williams deosnt get the ball out quickly. there are dozens of plays on film where he gets it out just like Daniels. He reads progressions and makes quick decisions in tempo, with a lighting release too. What he ALSO does is extend time in the pocket and look for homeruns too much. that's what skewed that Time To Throw stat. Not an indecisiveness or inability to play in structure.

Then again, if I won every game when my defense defense held the opponent under 35 points, and still lost a bunch ,of games Id be looking for lots of home runs too.

As for Daniels' accuracy, look at the Warner tape, his ball location has a lot of issues. He has two first round WRs on his team I guess is the answer?

Williams definitely has more to learn in the NFL, but he is more NFL ready than anyone ive seen since Luck.

[AZ54]

On 3/18/2024 at 4:25 PM, BearFan PHX said:

there are lots of things to have opinions about. That Justin had a problem pulling the trigger isnt an opinion. It's a well chronicled fact.

I am happy to admit that most things on here are opinion. Just because I have one doesnt mean I think it's the only one, or that everyone must agree - that's some kind of projection on me, but it isnt what i think.

But at the same time, Im not going to live in a post modern context where nothing is real and anything can be true. That's BS. Justin has a problem playing in structure. Every pundit says it. His college scouting says it. The fact that we traded him, and what his worth was to us and the rest of the league says it. It is an incontrovertible fact.

And so, pretending that there is some character flaw in me because I declare a fact a fact, is nonsense, and gratuitous. It is just is.

When I say Jayden Daniels doesnt make reads or turn his head after the snap thats a claim Im making that can be proven right or wrong. There is no subjective nature to whether someone turned their head or not - they either did or they didnt, and you can count how many times each happens and get a sense of the pattern. Thats not an opinion.

These ARE opinions:

Daniels will grow and overcome this tendency and be amazing in the NFL
Daniels is going to lead a team to a superbowl
Daniels is going to score more points than any QB ever did

I cant say anyone saying those things are wrong. Those are unknowns. I can have contrary opinions, but they would just be opinions.

But if I say Justin wore the number 1 on his jersey, thats not an opinion. And neither is what Im saying about Fields or Daniels ability to go through progressions. They are easily seen on tape over and over.

Taking shots at me personally (when that happens) is not a substitute for doing ones own homework. Maybe youll tell me "youre wrong I watched a game where Daniels made tons of second reads" and that would be a substantive claim, so I'd say "cool what game was it" and then on your recommendation, Id actually go watch the game to evaluate your claim. I wouldnt say "well youre not Kurt Warner so what do you know?" Id just be glad for the claim to go learn. And then if I saw it too Id say "well thats amazing, youre right in this game he did it - so I guess he has that capability" and then Id go look at even more games to see how common it was. Maybe the games Ive seen were a poor sample. Im totally open to that.

I mean, I change my mind all the time. I wasnt sold on Caleb a couple months ago. Then i watched several hours of all 22 film, and that changed my mind. I have no reason to not like Jayden Daniels. He throws a beautiful ball. But I watched the tape and saw what I saw.

So Id please ask people to stop rebutting my tape based claims with personal responses like "youre not Kurt Warner" or whatever. Or Ill just start responding it kind, and it can be like a kindergarden in here. "no YOURE a poop" "no YOU are" - it's not an argument that expands anyones understanding of anything.

I also would like if anyone who said I was a Justin hater because there is something wrong with ME, that I am angry, or mean etc to admit that what I said about him turned out to be true, that Poles and the NFL agreed with me, so since I wasnt wrong, it wasnt coming from some bad character, and simply that I saw something in the tape.

But I wont hold my breath.
 

Sorry had some family in town from Spain so I've been mostly offline the last few days.  You have a good perspective on many things.  I think you can be confident that everyone wants to read that.  I just enjoy the debate, or reading the debates, even when we disagree.

 

 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

7 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Sorry had some family in town from Spain so I've been mostly offline the last few days.  You have a good perspective on many things.  I think you can be confident that everyone wants to read that.  I just enjoy the debate, or reading the debates, even when we disagree.

awesome, thank you!

I just try to look at film so sometimes that means I have ideas that aren't in harmony with whatever narratives are out there. Sometimes Im right, and sometimes Im just swinging out in the wind. But it makes for good stuff to debate anyway.

[Pixote]

I have to go to bed, but I want to ask PHX a simple question. (I'll check back in the morning)

I have no hidden agenda. I don't want to fight. I just want to ask a simple question to help me figure out where I am at with quarterbacks in this year's draft.

One of many negatives you pointed out about Fields was his inability to pull the trigger on wide-open receivers. It was certainly a valid point, one that had me screaming at my TV more than once when I saw it happen during a game. LOL

You even showed still images captured from the game film showing the wide-open receiver, circling him with red to be sure we saw him, even though Fields ignored him. (Or maybe he needed glasses, LOL)

Then, when I watched Kurt Warner's review, he also showed toward the end a still frame of Caleb looking right at a wide-open receiver, beyond the distance needed for a first down. Caleb didn't throw to him; instead, he ran straight forward to be tackled at the line of scrimmage. Warner even circled him with a red marker, like you did with the image of Field's analysis. I was thinking, "déjà vu"

So I know you watched this tape (I believe you said you did). Didn't this send a chill down your spine?

Again, Caleb is awesome. But I have seen him miss receivers (even on his pro day tape) Fail to pull the trigger, and play hero ball. The kid will need to clean all of that up.

 

[BearFan PHX]

21 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I have to go to bed, but I want to ask PHX a simple question. (I'll check back in the morning)

I have no hidden agenda. I don't want to fight. I just want to ask a simple question to help me figure out where I am at with quarterbacks in this year's draft.

One of many negatives you pointed out about Fields was his inability to pull the trigger on wide-open receivers. It was certainly a valid point, one that had me screaming at my TV more than once when I saw it happen during a game. LOL

You even showed still images captured from the game film showing the wide-open receiver, circling him with red to be sure we saw him, even though Fields ignored him. (Or maybe he needed glasses, LOL)

Then, when I watched Kurt Warner's review, he also showed toward the end a still frame of Caleb looking right at a wide-open receiver, beyond the distance needed for a first down. Caleb didn't throw to him; instead, he ran straight forward to be tackled at the line of scrimmage. Warner even circled him with a red marker, like you did with the image of Field's analysis. I was thinking, "déjà vu"

So I know you watched this tape (I believe you said you did). Didn't this send a chill down your spine?

Again, Caleb is awesome. But I have seen him miss receivers (even on his pro day tape) Fail to pull the trigger, and play hero ball. The kid will need to clean all of that up.

 

Cool - good question. I cant speak to the specific play (unless you find me a specific time on the film to look at), but in general when Caleb didnt get the ball out fast, he was generally looking for deeper receivers, where Justin was just afraid to throw. Caleb was buying more time in the pocket and still reading the defense, where Justin would be running out of the pocket and then structure would break down.

Also, I very rarely saw Justin make those plays in rhythm, especially after the scripted first plays, where I have seen Caleb do it dozens of times. So I dont think Justin CAN do it, where I think Caleb just needs to do it more, but has shown he can do it a lot.

Understand too, that Caleb didn't lose a game where his defense held the opponent under 34 points! All those losses were games where he had to be a Brett Favre like gunslinger. And I agree he will need to understand the wisdom of moving the chains in the NFL, but then again, he'll have a defense too?

That's the difference I see. If you watch the Colorado game for example, Caleb is making all kinds of reads in tempo.

That'd be my answer of the difference anyway.

I dont think Caleb has any real problems as a QB, I just hope his character fits and that he wants to be here and is coachable.

[Pixote]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Cool - good question. I cant speak to the specific play (unless you find me a specific time on the film to look at), but in general when Caleb didnt get the ball out fast, he was generally looking for deeper receivers, where Justin was just afraid to throw.

I will try to find the review I mentioned. There is a short one on NFL.com, but that is not the longer tape that showed the play I referred to.

On the play I am referring to, he had plenty of time to throw to a wide-open receiver around 10 - 15 yards down the field, more than enough to get the first down, but instead of throwing it to him, he ran right up the gut and got tackled.

It's not a big deal; he is obviously an extremely good-looking prospect—I'm not denying that—but that one play took me by surprise.