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2024 TalkBears Consensus Mock Draft


adam

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9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah I'm not crapping on Penix - I would rather have him than Daniels or Maye if that was the choice. Im just saying there are historical reasons why his value should be lower. But I cant say that he wont continue to grow in the NFL. Im just glad it's not a bet I have to make!

Me either. After Williams, I feel like it is pick your flavor. Penix, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, and to an extent, Nix, provide teams with different options at QB that may fit their scheme better. 

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38 minutes ago, adam said:

Me either. After Williams, I feel like it is pick your flavor. Penix, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, and to an extent, Nix, provide teams with different options at QB that may fit their scheme better. 

It's going to be a great year to be a true football fan, in addition to being a fanatic supporting the best team of all time, THE BEARS!

I am anxious to see the NEW Bears dominate!

I am also anxious to see which of the six top quarterbacks are legitimate franchise quarterbacks and which ones are fool's gold.

Fortunately, I have every pay-for-view option the NFL is using to rape the fans of every penny they can collect because of our addiction.

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2 hours ago, Pixote said:

It's going to be a great year to be a true football fan, in addition to being a fanatic supporting the best team of all time, THE BEARS!

I am anxious to see the NEW Bears dominate!

I am also anxious to see which of the six top quarterbacks are legitimate franchise quarterbacks and which ones are fool's gold.

Fortunately, I have every pay-for-view option the NFL is using to rape the fans of every penny they can collect because of our addiction.

The sad part is they all could end up being good QBs but some may get thrown in to action to early, get bad coaching or are on a weak team and don't get to develop properly. We will see which teams may the right decisions. 

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Looking at the teams that need QBs after the Bears pick, I think there may be several teams looking to get into the top 10 for a QB. The Raiders, Vikings, Broncos, and Saints could use a QB. I don't think anyone else trades up for a player unless it is a QB, or someone like Bowers. I think the Cardinals and Falcons could also trade back with a team for a QB. To get to #4, it will cost a lot. #8 looks a lot better for other teams, but going to #9 is even cheaper. I doubt NYJ trade back as they want to get a blue chipper for Rodgers to tear his Achilles again.

Here is my top 15, with the Bears trading down with LVR so they can pick McCarthy. 

 

top15.png

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Here is the updated consensus mock. Once I get all the entries, I will re-average the players so ones without a top 15 selection will be properly averaged out. Right now I am just averaging the known picks. So guys like Newton and Murphy will fall.

Screenshot 2024-04-04 072538.png

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There are a few players on the interior OL I'd LOVE to have. I don't think they will be our choices, because they are interior players, but they will be available at correct value for when we pick especially if we trade down #9. Again, I'm not predicting this is what we are going to do, or even what I would do, since DE, WR and OT seem important for us too and are more valuable positionally.

I just want to give a little love to

Taliese Fuaga

I see this guy as a replacement for Jenkins. He's thought of as an OT, more of a run blocker than a blind side protector though. Maybe more of a right tackle road grader type. Same story as Jenkins. He would make an amazing truly dominant guard to run behind. Someone is going to win a bunch of games on the ground behind this guy. I think he also has really long arms for those who fetishize that LOL

Jackson Powers Johnson

Another road grading run blocker who also has protection skills. A dominant leader who makes holes.

Imagine our current team with Caleb, an upgrade at LOT AND both of those two guys in the interior. Damn, we'd be regular superbowl visitors.

I know we will probably get neither, and if we get Fuaga, he wont be playing guard initially, but i just wanted to show these two some love, because I have a soft spot in my heart for dominant bruising run blockers. Imagine having a dominant passing game AND being able to bully teams in the run game. Defenses would be screwed.

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I think poles is drafting for dollars value meaning his top picks are going to be what costs the most on the open market. Therefore the pick at nine, or second first round pick if we’re lucky enough to make a short trade back, is either an OT, DE, or WR .

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11 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

I think poles is drafting for dollars value meaning his top picks are going to be what costs the most on the open market. Therefore the pick at nine, or second first round pick if we’re lucky enough to make a short trade back, is either an OT, DE, or WR .

Something crazy though, is that IOL cost is on the rise and OT is on the decline.

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2 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

what did you get for 13 ? 44?

I had to do some pick swaps to make it more legitimate, so it was #9, #75, and a 2025 5th for #13, #44, #77, and a 2025 6th. 

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9 hours ago, adam said:

Here is the updated consensus mock. Once I get all the entries, I will re-average the players so ones without a top 15 selection will be properly averaged out. Right now I am just averaging the known picks. So guys like Newton and Murphy will fall.

Screenshot 2024-04-04 072538.png

Newton had some surgery done so it will cause him to drop. He has always been rated higher with better stats than Murphy. He will be drafted at a better value . Don't know what the surgery was. 

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9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Newton had some surgery done so it will cause him to drop. He has always been rated higher with better stats than Murphy. He will be drafted at a better value . Don't know what the surgery was. 

Newton is going in the first round and I doubt he lasts past #20. Some have him as the #1 DT. 

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10 hours ago, adam said:

Looking at the teams that need QBs after the Bears pick, I think there may be several teams looking to get into the top 10 for a QB. The Raiders, Vikings, Broncos, and Saints could use a QB. I don't think anyone else trades up for a player unless it is a QB, or someone like Bowers. I think the Cardinals and Falcons could also trade back with a team for a QB. To get to #4, it will cost a lot. #8 looks a lot better for other teams, but going to #9 is even cheaper. I doubt NYJ trade back as they want to get a blue chipper for Rodgers to tear his Achilles again.

Here is my top 15, with the Bears trading down with LVR so they can pick McCarthy. 

 

top15.png

If McCarthy drops to 9, games on for a big haul. 

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2 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

It doesn’t make financial sense to draft an iol

I totally agree, thats why I said what I said about it not being what I predict or even what Id do myself - just showing some love for those players and what they could bring

I mean I kinda added them BOTH in addition to Caleb and an OT at #9 lol

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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

If McCarthy drops to 9, games on for a big haul. 

My fear is someone trades up with ATL instead of the Bears. Penix is the biggest wild card of the group, I think Williams, Daniels, and Maye go in the top 4. Then it is whether other teams get FOMO and go after McCarthy or Penix early. The Chargers literally have no WRs, so I doubt they trade down when they can get one of the top 3 WRs. Same goes for the Giants, look at their WRs. They could also go QB. If QBs go 1-2-3, can the Cards afford not to draft MHJ? That's why it seems like Alt is going to the Titans.

Atlanta doesn't need Bowers, and they can get the #1 defensive player in the draft if they want to. I am just hoping 4 QBs go in the top 8 at least giving the Bears the option for Turner at 9 if they can't trade down. 

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35 minutes ago, adam said:

My fear is someone trades up with ATL instead of the Bears. Penix is the biggest wild card of the group, I think Williams, Daniels, and Maye go in the top 4. Then it is whether other teams get FOMO and go after McCarthy or Penix early. The Chargers literally have no WRs, so I doubt they trade down when they can get one of the top 3 WRs. Same goes for the Giants, look at their WRs. They could also go QB. If QBs go 1-2-3, can the Cards afford not to draft MHJ? That's why it seems like Alt is going to the Titans.

Atlanta doesn't need Bowers, and they can get the #1 defensive player in the draft if they want to. I am just hoping 4 QBs go in the top 8 at least giving the Bears the option for Turner at 9 if they can't trade down. 

It's the biggest reality show in the world. Drama

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On 4/4/2024 at 5:31 PM, adam said:

My fear is someone trades up with ATL instead of the Bears. Penix is the biggest wild card of the group, I think Williams, Daniels, and Maye go in the top 4. Then it is whether other teams get FOMO and go after McCarthy or Penix early. The Chargers literally have no WRs, so I doubt they trade down when they can get one of the top 3 WRs. Same goes for the Giants, look at their WRs. They could also go QB. If QBs go 1-2-3, can the Cards afford not to draft MHJ? That's why it seems like Alt is going to the Titans.

Atlanta doesn't need Bowers, and they can get the #1 defensive player in the draft if they want to. I am just hoping 4 QBs go in the top 8 at least giving the Bears the option for Turner at 9 if they can't trade down. 

If we even like Turner for this defense though.

Otherwise, I think you're looking at Fashanu, Verse, Thomas - which is why a trade down from 9 to say, 13 to 18ish makes sense, then we can look at those same guys, including the DTs, not overpay, and pick up something extra as a bonus.

I dont think we trade down FOR that bonus tho. If one of the 3 WRs, or the right OT or DL is there, we take them, it's just I dont think Turner is as good for us, as he is in general for other teams given his size and style of play, and if we're taking someone else from that 1b tier, then we might as well move down a couple slots to do it.

but if Odunze or Nabers is there, we will probably take them.

I think we may have been talking to the OT from Yale to investigate those area of players in a trade down. He could be the extra guy we get for taking #9 down a few slots.

Then again, Verse's stock is rising, and he might be perfect at #9 depending on how the market is firming up.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 4/5/2024 at 8:48 AM, BearFan PHX said:

If we even like Turner for this defense though.

Otherwise, I think you're looking at Fashanu, Verse, Thomas - which is why a trade down from 9 to say, 13 to 18ish makes sense, then we can look at those same guys, including the DTs, not overpay, and pick up something extra as a bonus.

I dont think we trade down FOR that bonus tho. If one of the 3 WRs, or the right OT or DL is there, we take them, it's just I dont think Turner is as good for us, as he is in general for other teams given his size and style of play, and if we're taking someone else from that 1b tier, then we might as well move down a couple slots to do it.

but if Odunze or Nabers is there, we will probably take them.

I think we may have been talking to the OT from Yale to investigate those area of players in a trade down. He could be the extra guy we get for taking #9 down a few slots.

Then again, Verse's stock is rising, and he might be perfect at #9 depending on how the market is firming up.

As much as you've involved in this website, you couldn't take the time to do a top 15?

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  • adam unfeatured and unpinned this topic

1) Bears - Caleb

2) Wash - Maye

3) NE - Daniels

4) Arizona - MHJ

5) Minn - McCarthy

6) NY - Nabors

7) Titans - Alt

? Atlanta - Turner

9) Chicago - Odunze

10) NY - Bowers

11) SD - Latham

12) Denver - Penix

13) Vegas - Arnold

14) NO - Fashanu

15) Indy - Worthy

 

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We actually did pretty good.  Our consensus draft got 5 correct, and 8 of 10 of the picks in the top 10.

  • Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison, and Nabers (5/10 correct)
  • Alt, Odunze and McCarthy in top 10 (8/10 in the top 10)
  • Turner and Bowers not in top 10
  • Latham and Penix in top 10
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