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Best options to win in 2024


Stinger226

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I think pressure will be on Poles and Flus to win in the third year of a rebuild. What puts us in the best situation to win now?

I think it's a 98% chance Williams is our first pick. He has the highest floor and highest ceiling IMO. Not to say some of QBs won't be successful. I think the next most unknown QB prospect is McCarthy. He played on a team that won with the running game and defense which doesn't allow his stats to look great. I think he's the unknown QB in the draft. Harbaugh thinks he's the best QB in the draft. I think if we trade down he would be what Poles would do it for. IMO

They all have some questions but that is what I think Poles options are in front of him.

At 9 I don't think a OT is his first priority even though it would be a upgrade. Poles flagship pick was getting a starting LT starting for two years at LT in the fifth. He's rating the last two years is have been 15th to 19th. With progress he could be top 12. I think a WR or Edge would be more important for winning now.

So if the one of the  top 3 WR drops that is probably the choice he makes. He makes the transition of Caleb from college to pro's easier. If not I think he trades down just enough to get one of the top 4 edge players in the draft. No lower than 15 probably gets that done. If he goes lower he may be getting a DT (there draft value) or a top 5 WR. 

Any trade down to up to 15 is only going to get a 3rd and maybe a 5th or 6 th. If we go 10 back that could net us a 2 nd but take us out of our blue chip players. Poles has did very well in the second  so I would say , where he trades down, he will be bring us good players. A Locked on Bears podcast did a history of those types of trade downs that give me those values.

So for what is our options , keep our picks that gives us 4 picks.

                                              trade back from 9 , still draft Verse or Latu, and get an extra 3 and 5. 

For an example: trade back with Las Vegas and get 13,77, and 148.

1) Williams.        Used GBND Report for reference.

13) Jared Verse

75)  Johnny Wilson - Brenden Rice - Tez Walker

77) Sedric Van Pran/ C

122) Brandon Coleman G/T 

148) Eric Watts DE ( 6-6 275, 4.67 speed)

If we stay pat with picks

1) Williams

9) Dallas Turner

75) same as above choices at WR

122) Beaux Limmer/ C

So what puts us in the best position to win now?

 

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It is so hard man. On one hand, the Bears have to replace Justin Jones and Ngakoue's snaps. Those are holes. WR3, TE3, and even OT to an extent are luxury picks. Just look at the JSN interview from the Super Bowl about the usage of the WR3 in Waldron's offense.

On the other hand, if a blue chip player is sitting there at #9, like Alt or Odunze, you have to take them. My reasoning may be different than others, but if you don't expect to ever draft in the top 10 again, why would you trade out of it when you are there?

However, if MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Alt are gone in the top 8, I would expect the Bears to trade down. 

On the top draft scenario, if the Bears move off of 9, I hope they get more than just 77+148 to do so. I want a 2nd round pick, even if it is later. The teams with the best pick slots for a trade for 9 that gives back a 2nd is JAX at 17+48, CIN at 18+49+149+214, and LAR at 19+52+99+217. The LAR one is interesting as that would be a mid-2nd rounder, a late 3rd rounder, and a late 6th rounder. Here is how that would look:

 

pff_mock_results (2).png

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29 minutes ago, adam said:

It is so hard man. On one hand, the Bears have to replace Justin Jones and Ngakoue's snaps. Those are holes. WR3, TE3, and even OT to an extent are luxury picks. Just look at the JSN interview from the Super Bowl about the usage of the WR3 in Waldron's offense.

On the other hand, if a blue chip player is sitting there at #9, like Alt or Odunze, you have to take them. My reasoning may be different than others, but if you don't expect to ever draft in the top 10 again, why would you trade out of it when you are there?

However, if MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Alt are gone in the top 8, I would expect the Bears to trade down. 

On the top draft scenario, if the Bears move off of 9, I hope they get more than just 77+148 to do so. I want a 2nd round pick, even if it is later. The teams with the best pick slots for a trade for 9 that gives back a 2nd is JAX at 17+48, CIN at 18+49+149+214, and LAR at 19+52+99+217. The LAR one is interesting as that would be a mid-2nd rounder, a late 3rd rounder, and a late 6th rounder. Here is how that would look:

 

pff_mock_results (2).png

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I don't agree that Poles and Flus are in win now mode. 

In following the theme of the post of win now, after drafting Williams, I think an EDGE rusher is key.  Winning teams have multiple ways of getting to the QB.  Dexter and Pickens should progress in their second year, which could be really nasty up the middle when you remove Billings in passing situations.  Dallas Turner would be my pick, due to burst and change of direction abilities.  I'm usually not the type to trade up, but it would be really cool to get into the second round somehow.  With that, Poles can trade a couple of next year's picks to move up.  There would be value in this move because some really good receivers and IOL are available.  Lastly, with our cap situation still being good, a team might give us a good deal on an EDGE rusher they can no longer afford our one is simply cut.

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2 hours ago, adam said:

It is so hard man. On one hand, the Bears have to replace Justin Jones and Ngakoue's snaps. Those are holes. WR3, TE3, and even OT to an extent are luxury picks. Just look at the JSN interview from the Super Bowl about the usage of the WR3 in Waldron's offense.

On the other hand, if a blue chip player is sitting there at #9, like Alt or Odunze, you have to take them. My reasoning may be different than others, but if you don't expect to ever draft in the top 10 again, why would you trade out of it when you are there?

However, if MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Alt are gone in the top 8, I would expect the Bears to trade down. 

On the top draft scenario, if the Bears move off of 9, I hope they get more than just 77+148 to do so. I want a 2nd round pick, even if it is later. The teams with the best pick slots for a trade for 9 that gives back a 2nd is JAX at 17+48, CIN at 18+49+149+214, and LAR at 19+52+99+217. The LAR one is interesting as that would be a mid-2nd rounder, a late 3rd rounder, and a late 6th rounder. Here is how that would look:

 

pff_mock_results (2).png

I would love it to .  if you move back 10 spots there's a chance at maybe getting a second but that kind of haul may not be realistic. History says no. Here's a podcast that did some research into trade backs from around our spot, and that kind just isn't there. 

I'm not sure Verse makes it to 19. 

I think we do all of these mock drafts and get all excited to it being possible. Poles made an impossible return last year but that is not normal.

 

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56 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I don't agree that Poles and Flus are in win now mode. 

In following the theme of the post of win now, after drafting Williams, I think an EDGE rusher is key.  Winning teams have multiple ways of getting to the QB.  Dexter and Pickens should progress in their second year, which could be really nasty up the middle when you remove Billings in passing situations.  Dallas Turner would be my pick, due to burst and change of direction abilities.  I'm usually not the type to trade up, but it would be really cool to get into the second round somehow.  With that, Poles can trade a couple of next year's picks to move up.  There would be value in this move because some really good receivers and IOL are available.  Lastly, with our cap situation still being good, a team might give us a good deal on an EDGE rusher they can no longer afford our one is simply cut.

I will say taking Caleb buys more time on winning but the K Allen  trade pretty well sold me on win now. He is likely a one and done. I don't think Poles pays him 20+ for a couple year extension at his age. Next year tags should be around 25 and 22.5 mil for WRs according to OTC. So it's very possible we could have him one more year. 

A rookie QB is an unknown as far as quality of play, most aren't good. Stroud last year rarely happens. I think that's why he took so long to decide on Fields because he knew he could win with him. But the #1 pick of a potential franchise QB and the  meter started on Justin, he had to do it. 

The unknown factor we don't usually figure in the equation is the progress of current young players. Pickens and Dexter should be much  better. Does the new DL coach actually get anything out of Robinson?  Walker is a perfect 3 rd edge but we need that # 2 and our second pick is going to give it to us.

Now I also said if any of the top 3 WRs are there, we have to take them but I don't think they will be. I think Turner is going to be a good player but Verse is a better scheme fit for Flus, plays the run well , can set the edge better plus Turner will be the first D player taken and may be before we pick. I don't see Poles trading up with so little draft capital. Latu may be the best of the lot but injury history gets in the way.

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22 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I will say taking Caleb buys more time on winning but the K Allen  trade pretty well sold me on win now. He is likely a one and done. I don't think Poles pays him 20+ for a couple year extension at his age. Next year tags should be around 25 and 22.5 mil for WRs according to OTC. So it's very possible we could have him one more year.

Consider this.  Allen is entering the twilight of his career.  What if he sees staying as his best chance of winning a Superbowl?  I would think that would drive his price down.  Also, with us being in such great cap position, why couldn't we pay him if he's ultra productive still?

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18 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Consider this.  Allen is entering the twilight of his career.  What if he sees staying as his best chance of winning a Superbowl?  I would think that would drive his price down.  Also, with us being in such great cap position, why couldn't we pay him if he's ultra productive still?

All of those could be true but history says Poles ain't going to overpay on value. It's subject to change but if we're a losing team this year, does that affect Allen wanting to play somewhere else?  If they're not all in on winning, we may not have a winning record.

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4 hours ago, adam said:

It is so hard man. On one hand, the Bears have to replace Justin Jones and Ngakoue's snaps. Those are holes. WR3, TE3, and even OT to an extent are luxury picks. Just look at the JSN interview from the Super Bowl about the usage of the WR3 in Waldron's offense.

On the other hand, if a blue chip player is sitting there at #9, like Alt or Odunze, you have to take them. My reasoning may be different than others, but if you don't expect to ever draft in the top 10 again, why would you trade out of it when you are there?

However, if MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Alt are gone in the top 8, I would expect the Bears to trade down. 

On the top draft scenario, if the Bears move off of 9, I hope they get more than just 77+148 to do so. I want a 2nd round pick, even if it is later. The teams with the best pick slots for a trade for 9 that gives back a 2nd is JAX at 17+48, CIN at 18+49+149+214, and LAR at 19+52+99+217. The LAR one is interesting as that would be a mid-2nd rounder, a late 3rd rounder, and a late 6th rounder. Here is how that would look:

 

pff_mock_results (2).png

great draft. I just posted something similar to your rational here on the "Bears on the clock" thread.

I do think this draft falls off the table around the 18th player, so coming down a bit from #9 to grab a DE makes a lot of sense.

I had been kind of thinking that WR would be the pick at #9, especially, if Nabers or Harrison drop (not likely!) and then i thought that building up Caleb is important, so an OT might be the pick, but maybe it is as simple as simply looking at the two positions Poles hasn't upgraded yet: Quarterback and Defensive line.

We have needs at DE and DT so I dunno where that would go, or if any of the defensive linemen this year are really all that good, but generically, assuming all player ratings are equal to their draft position (for the math here, obviously never true) a defensive lineman wouldn't surprise me.

In order of importance, the most important position on the field is the QB, and so the second most important position is the guy that knocks the QB down.

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1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

In order of importance, the most important position on the field is the QB, and so the second most important position is the guy that knocks the QB down.

Or your guy at OT that keeps that from happening. But I do think the big need is DE/DT and unless on of the top OL is there at 9 my bet is on DE/DT.

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I think it is safe to make several assumptions. Caleb will be a Bear. Unless he holds out, gets injured, or plays like crap in the preseason, he will be our starting QB in game one of 2024.

The question is, what can we expect from a "generational" quarterback in his rookie year?

The only two quarterbacks I can remember having this much hype and high expectations before throwing their first NFL pass were, ironically, both with the Colts. I'm referring to, of course, Payton Manning and Andrew Luck.

I checked how they and the Colts performed in the rookie years of both quarterbacks.

The 1997 Colts had a record of 3-13. With Peyton Manning as the starting quarterback in 1998, they were, um, 3-13. They did turn it around in 1999 and were 13-3. In his rookie year, Peyton only completed 56.7% of his passes for 3739 yards, with 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions.

In 2011 (after 9 straight years of double-digit wins), the Colts slumped to 2-14. In 2012, Andrew's rookie year, they improved to 11-5. Luck again, like Peyton, had a poor completion %, 54.1, but threw for 4374 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions.

The bottom line is that I wasted my time. ? From all of this, I have no idea what to expect from Caleb.

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2 hours ago, ChileBear said:

Or your guy at OT that keeps that from happening. But I do think the big need is DE/DT and unless on of the top OL is there at 9 my bet is on DE/DT.

yup - that old story goes "and #3 is the guy that stops that guy from hitting your QB" lol

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45 minutes ago, Pixote said:

The bottom line is that I wasted my time. ? From all of this, I have no idea what to expect from Caleb.

Nah, Manning came into a team with nothing, Luck's team was already stocked. Caleb should be at least decent in year one. I think what you hope for are flashes of greatness, and if they are inconsistent, or come with rookie interception mistakes, thats OK. What you dont want to see is consistent mushy oatmeal.

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26 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Nah, Manning came into a team with nothing, Luck's team was already stocked. Caleb should be at least decent in year one. I think what you hope for are flashes of greatness, and if they are inconsistent, or come with rookie interception mistakes, thats OK. What you dont want to see is consistent mushy oatmeal.

With all of the hype Caleb has gotten, with everyone saying we'd be idiots to draft anyone else, and forget about a historically loaded trade of draft capitol, because Caleb is so Damn special, GENERATIONAL, I expect a hell-a-va lot more than flashes of greatness.

(I might add, if all we can expect is "flashes of greatness" why did we just give Fields away to Pittsburgh? He provided us with "flashes of greatness." We let him go because we needed more than "flashes" and expect more from Caleb.)

If Fields had been given the improvements that Caleb is being given, would he have had greater success? IMO, YES.

Pittsburgh will be very happy they got Fields.

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31 minutes ago, Pixote said:

With all of the hype Caleb has gotten, with everyone saying we'd be idiots to draft anyone else, and forget about a historically loaded trade of draft capitol, because Caleb is so Damn special, GENERATIONAL, I expect a hell-a-va lot more than flashes of greatness.

(I might add, if all we can expect is "flashes of greatness" why did we just give Fields away to Pittsburgh? He provided us with "flashes of greatness." We let him go because we needed more than "flashes" and expect more from Caleb.)

If Fields had been given the improvements that Caleb is being given, would he have had greater success? IMO, YES.

Pittsburgh will be very happy they got Fields.

So we disagree about Fields. I don't think Fields would be able to read defenses no matter how much (realistic) protection he received. We don't have to agree on that.

As far as generational, Williams is a generational prospect, which is different than being a generational NFL QB. It means he has the best chance to become a generational NFL QB, but right now he is nothing in the NFL, like all rookies.

The question isn't so much about how he hits the ground as who he will be in year two. We should see flashes that show us who he will be, and we will also likely see hard lessons learned when he tries to fit a ball into a window that closes too fast in the NFL, or gets baited by superior defensive backs until he learns what exactly is and isn't open in the NFL. That's expected, and has been true for every great NFL QB in history.

To expect Caleb Williams to be immediately great would be to expect more from him than any other great QB in NFL history. What I'm saying here is that the acceptable form of "not yet great" is flashes of greatness, interspersed with some mistakes. We will know we are in trouble if he doesn't show those flashes.

You may still be mad about Fields, but putting impossible expectations on Williams, that even the best all time QBs didn't achieve out of the gate isn't going to accurately predict his value to the team in the long run.

Expect to see a great rookie. That's a fair threshold for Caleb.

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First off, I've told you, but you do not listen. I am not MAD about Fields leaving the Bears. I think it was a big mistake, but I trust Poles to do what is best for the team. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Fields as a starter for Pittsburgh. At Wilson's age, there will be an opportunity for Fields to start during the season. When he does get a chance, I think they will be hard-pressed to sit him.

Best QB prospect in two decades! Can't miss prospect. Generational. Worth more than any package of a half dozen #1 draft picks. Poles should be fired if he doesn't select Caleb. Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah

Now you are trying to lessen my expectations for this UNBELIEVABLY GIFTED GENERATIONAL PROSPECT?

Sorry. With the vast improvements made this off-season to help him in the transition, I expect more than what you are suggesting. 

 

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I'd like to enter the Caleb fray.  I fully expect to see as many wow plays as Justin had last year.  But, I expect also some rookie failures along the way.  The most important thing with Caleb this season, and it's not even close, is processing and utilizing the entire field.  That, IMO, is why Justin is no longer here.  If see Caleb throwing people open and hitting deep crosses, I will be a happy camper.  The first half of the season will probably be a lot of ball control TOP type of offense to protect Caleb.  The second half of the season should bring a little more attacking...

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45 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'd like to enter the Caleb fray.  I fully expect to see as many wow plays as Justin had last year.  But, I expect also some rookie failures along the way.  The most important thing with Caleb this season, and it's not even close, is processing and utilizing the entire field.  That, IMO, is why Justin is no longer here.  If see Caleb throwing people open and hitting deep crosses, I will be a happy camper.  The first half of the season will probably be a lot of ball control TOP type of offense to protect Caleb.  The second half of the season should bring a little more attacking...

You put it correctly. I have watched some people say he could  set records for a rookie. That would exceed what Stroud did last year. He has to change his wildcat mentality and play within the offense he's given. If he can settle down on his ego and keep team in mind , he can do that. He's young and has a lot of adjusting to do but is capable of high projections. 

As far as Justin goes, people keep saying he can't do certain things, which is not true. It was his consistency that was the problem. When he threw for 16 straight completions, it wasn't just luck.  When throwing to DJ and Kmet , he had a high QB rating . He had plenty of good moments, it just didn't over come his down side. Had Carolina not gave us a top 3 pick, we would  be having  a different conversation right now. I predict he will end up being the starter in Pittsburgh, not day one but Tomlin will figure out how to have him   be effective.  I've never said he's a top 5 QB but he can reach top 10 heights. In his last 7 games, he was ranked 12 th. ( small sample size) he's not here any more so to still argue over his good or bad is pointless. He will prove his worth.

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1 hour ago, Pixote said:

First off, I've told you, but you do not listen. I am not MAD about Fields leaving the Bears. I think it was a big mistake, but I trust Poles to do what is best for the team. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Fields as a starter for Pittsburgh. At Wilson's age, there will be an opportunity for Fields to start during the season. When he does get a chance, I think they will be hard-pressed to sit him.

Best QB prospect in two decades! Can't miss prospect. Generational. Worth more than any package of a half dozen #1 draft picks. Poles should be fired if he doesn't select Caleb. Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah

Now you are trying to lessen my expectations for this UNBELIEVABLY GIFTED GENERATIONAL PROSPECT?

Sorry. With the vast improvements made this off-season to help him in the transition, I expect more than what you are suggesting. 

 

this isnt about lessening expectations to cover my ass, its just about the truth of rookies coming into the NFL. Youve been watching football for a long time, do you ever remember a rookie QB not going thru some adversity?

Also to your being mad about Fields, you keep bringing him into the conversation about Williams, and writing blah over ten times does seem a little emotional?

You seem to be angrily throwing the idea that he is a generational prospect around, and then saying if he isnt perfect then that means we should have built around Fields instead.

So thats cool thats what you think, but in the same breath to pretend it isnt is silly. The tone of your post is surely emotional, capital letters, blah multiple times, saying "sorry" sarcastically, and expecting perfection are all strong signals that read angry. You start off saying i dont read, but I do. Thats what i just read.

Caleb should show great flashes of greatness, and he will make some rookie mistakes. Thats about the most obvious non controversial statement I can imagine. if it makes you upset, I dont know what to tell you. All rookies have a learning curve. Theres never been one that didnt.

But at the same time, we should see evidence that he is better than most pretty quickly. It just wont be as consistent as it is in year 2 etc. Again, not controversial at all.

But i also think Justin is not going to be great in Pittsburgh either. I think he sucks, and the whole league agreed, and youre just holding on to something thats also clouding your view on how youre going to treat Williams. But you can fan however you like.

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59 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'd like to enter the Caleb fray.  I fully expect to see as many wow plays as Justin had last year.  But, I expect also some rookie failures along the way.  The most important thing with Caleb this season, and it's not even close, is processing and utilizing the entire field.  That, IMO, is why Justin is no longer here.  If see Caleb throwing people open and hitting deep crosses, I will be a happy camper.  The first half of the season will probably be a lot of ball control TOP type of offense to protect Caleb.  The second half of the season should bring a little more attacking...

exactly

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3 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

this isnt about lessening expectations to cover my ass, its just about the truth of rookies coming into the NFL. Youve been watching football for a long time, do you ever remember a rookie QB not going thru some adversity?

Also to your being mad about Fields, you keep bringing him into the conversation about Williams, and writing blah over ten times does seem a little emotional?

You seem to be angrily throwing the idea that he is a generational prospect around, and then saying if he isnt perfect then that means we should have built around Fields instead.

So thats cool thats what you think, but in the same breath to pretend it isnt is silly.

Caleb should show great flashes of greatness, and he will make some rookie mistakes. Thats about the most obvious non controversial statement I can imagine. if it makes you upset, I dont know what to tell you. All rookies have a learning curve. Theres never been one that didnt.

But at the same time, we should see evidence that he is better than most pretty quickly. It just wont be as consistent as it is in year 2 etc. Again, not controversial at all.

But i also think Justin is not going to be great in Pittsburgh either. I think he sucks, and the whole league agreed, and youre just holding on to something thats also clouding your view on how youre going to treat Williams. But you can fan however you like.

I was the biggest Fields fan on here ( he was still a Bear) , but when he's gone, don't see reasons to debate  that anymore. Fields will show his worth in Pittsburgh, at this point he's not even starting, so that will be a point of conversation later next year.

There's no reason to think Caleb can't be what people say but he still has to prove that. I'm all in on hoping that happens because Poles is going to pick him.

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7 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I was the biggest Fields fan on here ( he was still a Bear) , but when he's gone, don't see reasons to debate  that anymore. Fields will show his worth in Pittsburgh, at this point he's not even starting, so that will be a point of conversation later next year.

There's no reason to think Caleb can't be what people say but he still has to prove that. I'm all in on hoping that happens because Poles is going to pick him.

well said. I agree with all of that.

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9 minutes ago, Pixote said:

Gee, Thanks!

Youre just looking to fight. I was saying that I acknowledge that you have a right to your opinions. Sheesh dude. Frickin relax.

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