Draft questions

[Stinger226]

Not really any threads here to just address the draft over all, so here we are.

Been watching a lot of edge tape and different football guys opinions on DE players.

Dallas Turner is rightfully the top prospect by most people.. He has such great upside. Latu has a higher floor to contribute right away but Turner is  long term . Latu also some medical concerns.

I liked Jared Verse but after watching tape and opinions, he doesn't have the bend or flexibility to be a 10+ sack man regularly. To give credit AZ54 already mentioned that. 

Latu can contribute the most in  his first year but not quite the athlete Turner is. 

Greg Gabriel rated them Turner- Chop Robinson- Latu- Verse as who will be the best long term . Chop isn't 21 yet but still needs time  to develop but has great upside. Several have said he has the right motor and attitude to succeed in the NFL. A bust potential also.

A couple interesting names of later rated ends are Jonah Ellis from Utah and Bralen Trice . Ellis had an injury later in the season and then they shut him down. He still had 13 sacks and 41 pressures.  Both should be 2nd round picks. I didn't check it out  but someone said Trice had   8 sacks and 67 pressures last year. That 6 pressures a game .

Anyone have information on any of edge they like?

[dawhizz]

Lots of random thoughts on this.  I don't think this is a very good edge class and I think it really falls off a cliff after the first round edges (Turner, Verse, Chop Robinson, Latu, and Darrius Robinson in whatever order).  I think that's a far as you can get and still think you are drafting a guy who has a chance to start year one.  After that, you are drafting a guy you think you can bring in on passing downs and move Walker inside at best, and I don't even like a lot of those guys in that role. I kind of like Isaac but he looks small to me.  Booker is a young, pure developmental guy with "intriguing traits" that I might be willing to take a flier on in the 3rd but is pretty raw.  I really like Brandon Dorlus, but my read on him is that he's pretty duplicative of Walker in that he's a bigger edge you can move inside at times, so maybe that doesn't make sense from a roster construction standpoint.   By the same token, I really don't see a huge difference between a guy you could get at #9 and a guy you could get in the twenties, and they all have the high RAS scores that appeal to the Bears.  Maybe the Bears have a guy they love and want to take if he's there at 9, and if so, fine, but my approach would be that if the top 3 WRs are gone at #9 and you are looking at edge, I would trade down, even into the late teens/early twenties, and just take whichever edge is highest on the board at that time and get some round 2/3 draft capital, because all those first round guys have positives and negatives but I could see any of them busting or balling out, so I would be fine to just see who's there and take them.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, dawhizz said:

Lots of random thoughts on this.  I don't think this is a very good edge class and I think it really falls off a cliff after the first round edges (Turner, Verse, Chop Robinson, Latu, and Darrius Robinson in whatever order).  I think that's a far as you can get and still think you are drafting a guy who has a chance to start year one.  After that, you are drafting a guy you think you can bring in on passing downs and move Walker inside at best, and I don't even like a lot of those guys in that role. I kind of like Isaac but he looks small to me.  Booker is a young, pure developmental guy with "intriguing traits" that I might be willing to take a flier on in the 3rd but is pretty raw.  I really like Brandon Dorlus, but my read on him is that he's pretty duplicative of Walker in that he's a bigger edge you can move inside at times, so maybe that doesn't make sense from a roster construction standpoint.   By the same token, I really don't see a huge difference between a guy you could get at #9 and a guy you could get in the twenties, and they all have the high RAS scores that appeal to the Bears.  Maybe the Bears have a guy they love and want to take if he's there at 9, and if so, fine, but my approach would be that if the top 3 WRs are gone at #9 and you are looking at edge, I would trade down, even into the late teens/early twenties, and just take whichever edge is highest on the board at that time and get some round 2/3 draft capital, because all those first round guys have positives and negatives but I could see any of them busting or balling out, so I would be fine to just see who's there and take them.

If they trade back 10 spots that's puts them in line for a second round pick as compensation. If they get one of those 5 that would be worth it but if Dal!as Turner is there, that the best prospect edge in the draft. Might as well take him. 2 10 sack ends on your line puts us in a top 5 defense. We led the league in interceptions last year without any pass rush until Sweat got here.

[killakrzydav]

You gotta get an edge early. The quality of player is shit after the first 8 edges. Latu has the prettiest tape. He sheds blocks like King Kong.  (Hunt for the Caleb vs Latu tape) Verse is a Flus dude.  Im still wondering who him and Poles wanted 2 of when watching video but I'm guessing it was Verse or Turner.

[AZ54]

It depends a bit on what you want.  If you want the best pass rushing DE for third and long you grab Turner.  He still has value as a run defender but not really the guy you want to anchor against the point of attack in the run game.   
 

 If you want a starting caliber NFL DE for every down you take Verse.  He’s a beast who just will not be moved.  His bull rush is so effective it’ll give Braxton Jones nightmares about practice.   He has enough athleticism to work off that and get sacks.   
 

if you were in group one then you might not care much if you trade back and get Latu.   
 

The rest are JAGs.  

[killakrzydav]

I'd gladly trade twice to 19 and take either JC Latham or another falling OT or the last of the top three De's. WR is really off the table imo

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

If you want a starting caliber NFL DE for every down you take Verse.  He’s a beast who just will not be moved.  His bull rush is so effective it’ll give Braxton Jones nightmares about practice.   He has enough athleticism to work off that and get sacks.  

The rest are JAGs.  

Truth.

Turner is really an OLB type edge. His "type' is like Leonard Floyd, although I think Turner is a better player than Floyd.

Eberflus really is a 4-3 kind of guy. He is gonna want a DE that can play on first and second down too. This is part of why they say that the 3T makes the cover 2 go. Because you need DEs that can play contain on the run, because your LBs are back in zone, and you need to collapse the pocket a bit more from the DTs, since the DEs have to respect the run for a beat longer without LBers playing contain on the edge.

This is why I think Verse is a much better fit for Eberflus. If we go DL, I think it'll be verse or even a 3T before it'd be Turner.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

You gotta get an edge early. The quality of player is shit after the first 8 edges. Latu has the prettiest tape. He sheds blocks like King Kong.  (Hunt for the Caleb vs Latu tape) Verse is a Flus dude.  Im still wondering who him and Poles wanted 2 of when watching video but I'm guessing it was Verse or Turner.

Never thought about it that way, Verse fits Flus better. Not sure Micah Parsons would fit the scheme either  but I think everyone would have no problem if he was on the team.

I think Dallas Turner compares to Will Anderson physically and Will had 7 sacks and 64 pressures as a rookie ( Turner 4.46 Anderson 4.6 ) 

Stick Turner opposite Sweat and shht   hits the fan. Dexter improves and no one is going to want to play us. Isn't Sweat more of a power rusher?

Dallas Turner would be a great pick.

 

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Truth.

Turner is really an OLB type edge. His "type' is like Leonard Floyd, although I think Turner is a better player than Floyd.

Eberflus really is a 4-3 kind of guy. He is gonna want a DE that can play on first and second down too. This is part of why they say that the 3T makes the cover 2 go. Because you need DEs that can play contain on the run, because your LBs are back in zone, and you need to collapse the pocket a bit more from the DTs, since the DEs have to respect the run for a beat longer without LBers playing contain on the edge.

This is why I think Verse is a much better fit for Eberflus. If we go DL, I think it'll be verse or even a 3T before it'd be Turner.

I agree we're more likely to take Verse over Turner as well.  Part of that reason though is the lack of depth we've got at DE.  Walker isn't bad though on run downs so having elite speed off the edge would be welcome in the mix.   Maybe they swing big for the elite pass rush because Turner definitely has a skillset we don't have the on the roster.   Ngakoue was never a bend-around-the-hoop type of DE, nor did he have elite quickness, speed, or power.   At his age his one-trick pony show wasn't working anymore.  

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I agree we're more likely to take Verse over Turner as well.  Part of that reason though is the lack of depth we've got at DE.  Walker isn't bad though on run downs so having elite speed off the edge would be welcome in the mix.   Maybe they swing big for the elite pass rush because Turner definitely has a skillset we don't have the on the roster.   Ngakoue was never a bend-around-the-hoop type of DE, nor did he have elite quickness, speed, or power.   At his age his one-trick pony show wasn't working anymore.  

Maybe they will surprise us, I just don't see Eberflus taking a light DE. Not that Turner isnt talented or anything like that.

[Stinger226]

38 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Maybe they will surprise us, I just don't see Eberflus taking a light DE. Not that Turner isnt talented or anything like that.

We discuss Verse vs Turner and Poles may like Latu better. I think he surprises up.

[Mongo3451]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

We discuss Verse vs Turner and Poles may like Latu better. I think he surprises up.

I like all three, but Turner is the only freak.  Verse could be another Mack though...

[killakrzydav]

Don't sleep on Latu. Medicals yes but he's healthy fir some time.  Watch his hands and shedding ability.  So superior in hand fighting to either top 3 de.  Him and verse are old though.

[Stinger226]

Does anyone know anything about Mo Karmara? I keep seeing his named mentioned on podcasts as a sleeper type. From Colorado State University and had 13 sacks last year and 43 pressures. 

[CrackerDog]

Maybe a new branch on this thread but I still want to grab a blue chip OT with 9.  

[BearFan PHX]

19 minutes ago, CrackerDog said:

Maybe a new branch on this thread but I still want to grab a blue chip OT with 9.  

for sure. If one of the blue chip OT, DL or WRs are available at 9, we should grab them. Having our LOT and ROT set for the next 10 years would be massive for Caleb and our running game.

Im hoping someone falls, but i suspect we are gonna trade down to 11 to 18 ish and pickup someone from that 1b tier. I feel like the guys we all want are gone by 8?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

We should do some breakdowns, and on separate posts covering  1 WR, 2 DE, 3 OT.  Guys to target with pick 9 or in a trade down.  I feel Poles can get a WR and DE in a trade down, for example Brian Thomas Jr WR  at 17 and Brlen Trice DE round 2.  Neither guys would be considered tier 1, but with Moore/Allen and Sweat, these two can develop into solid good/great starters.  Or at 9, grab another possible probowler.  

[Mongo3451]

5 hours ago, CrackerDog said:

Maybe a new branch on this thread but I still want to grab a blue chip OT with 9.  

I would never hate that...

[adam]

Have the Bears ever had two dominant DE's that were the same "type" of Edge Rusher? To me, it would almost seem better to have a different flavor on either side, or ones you can move all over the line. If they are similar then you are not really gaining an advantage by swapping them. At least from the way I am thinking about it. 

[BearFan PHX]

27 minutes ago, adam said:

Have the Bears ever had two dominant DE's that were the same "type" of Edge Rusher? To me, it would almost seem better to have a different flavor on either side, or ones you can move all over the line. If they are similar then you are not really gaining an advantage by swapping them. At least from the way I am thinking about it. 

from a flexibility standpoint I understand what youre saying, but from a schematic point of view, every defense needs to identify one player on each side of the field that is responsible for "contain" meaning that you dont have to make the tackle, but you have to stay outside the ballcarrier so that they evade you back into the teeth of the defense, and cant flank the entire defense up the sideline for a big gain.

In Eberflus' 4-3 zone scheme, the LBers drop so the DEs have containment responsibilities. So they have to be big enough to set the edge. Also, because they need to take a beat and respect that run containment assignment, thats why we say a cover 2 scheme needs a 3T, because the DEs are a little less abrupt upfield on regular downs, and an active DT makes up the difference in pressure.

In a 3-4 scheme, one of the 2 OLBs can be a big physical edge setter, like Mack was, but the other one can be light like Floyd was, because the opposite side DE in that case has contain. It's like Mack and the other 3 DL are the front 4, and the edge LB that isnt big, is like a 4-3 over or under LB, shifted over to that side.

So if you put a light DE who doesnt play the run well in a 4-3 zone front, youd need to ask the LB on that side to take containment responsibility and thats basically like blitzing with a zone behind it which is asking to get burned.

THe only way that would work is if you have a monster DT who can play wide and set that edge. I suppose it's possible, but Ive never seen a scheme that was built that way? It'd almost be like your DT was stunting to DE as your base defense.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

every defense needs to identify one player on each side of the field that is responsible for "contain" meaning that you dont have to make the tackle, but you have to stay outside the ballcarrier so that they evade you back into the teeth of the defense, and cant flank the entire defense up the sideline for a big gain.

The above is true.  The rest is so so.  I've seen DB's set the edge.  The most creative defenses do it various ways.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

from a flexibility standpoint I understand what youre saying, but from a schematic point of view, every defense needs to identify one player on each side of the field that is responsible for "contain" meaning that you dont have to make the tackle, but you have to stay outside the ballcarrier so that they evade you back into the teeth of the defense, and cant flank the entire defense up the sideline for a big gain.

In Eberflus' 4-3 zone scheme, the LBers drop so the DEs have containment responsibilities. So they have to be big enough to set the edge. Also, because they need to take a beat and respect that run containment assignment, thats why we say a cover 2 scheme needs a 3T, because the DEs are a little less abrupt upfield on regular downs, and an active DT makes up the difference in pressure.

In a 3-4 scheme, one of the 2 OLBs can be a big physical edge setter, like Mack was, but the other one can be light like Floyd was, because the opposite side DE in that case has contain. It's like Mack and the other 3 DL are the front 4, and the edge LB that isnt big, is like a 4-3 over or under LB, shifted over to that side.

So if you put a light DE who doesnt play the run well in a 4-3 zone front, youd need to ask the LB on that side to take containment responsibility and thats basically like blitzing with a zone behind it which is asking to get burned.

THe only way that would work is if you have a monster DT who can play wide and set that edge. I suppose it's possible, but Ive never seen a scheme that was built that way? It'd almost be like your DT was stunting to DE as your base defense.

I think for this year, A rookie edge will be more of a pass rush specialist and rotational guy. Now Verse and Latu probably could start right away. The 3 T is important but does Dexter growth be enough to be that guy 55% of the time? Like you said with limited draft capital, we need one more year of rebuilding.

Until the draft is done and 2 nd wave of free agency finishes, he may add someone at 3 T and will at edge. If we take a Dallas Turner, his value will be more after his year of growth but can be a 10+ every year. He has the highest ceiling.

I wouldn't mind Murphy or Newton and get Mike Danna in FA. That won't happen if he takes a LT at. 9. I don't think Alt is in his plans.

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

The above is true.  The rest is so so.  I've seen DB's set the edge.  The most creative defenses do it various ways.

sure when theyre tricking people out, but in your base defense, I cant think of one with a CB setting the edge?

Anyway, I think Eberflus wants bigger guys than Turner, but Turner is probably the best 3rd down pass rusher of the bunch.

[Stinger226]

I agree with Turner as best sack guy , but most teams run 60% of their schemes in nickel defense. We can get by with a lack of the true type of DE. Walker is the starter and does well at that anyways.

[BearFan PHX]

32 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree with Turner as best sack guy , but most teams run 60% of their schemes in nickel defense. We can get by with a lack of the true type of DE. Walker is the starter and does well at that anyways.

the converse argument would be that in nickel, you have even more need for a true run stopping DE, since youve swapped out a LB for a DB, sacrificing total muscle on the field for more speed.

thats why most nickel and dime (non prevent) have 4 man fronts. So theres two DEs for contain. Its also why DEs more often take the outside route tot he QB, so they can also play the run. Of course on 3rd down, its a free for all pass rush sometimes.

I just think Turner is better suited to a 3-4 front, even as he is the most talented pure pass rusher.