Dane Brugler's The Beast

[adam]

Caleb Williams write-up:

Quote

STRENGTHS: Rare football awareness … impressive pocket mobility and feel for negotiating the rush to evade defenders in confined spaces … displays the unique ability to quickly set his base and find his balance from any platform … passes come buzzing out of his ear with high RPMs, but he can also adjust his arm angles with ease … able to create torque on his throws while flat-footed … delivers with both touch and accuracy, regardless if he is making a layered throw or drive throw … uses the entire field and doesn’t lean on specific zones … comfortable delivering the ball before receivers enter their break … eyes are always up and stay in pass-first mode when scrambling … at his best with receivers who know how to get open on scramble drills (his teammates call it “Baller mode”) … didn’t throw an interception on third or fourth down at USC (199 pass attempts) … reads pressures well pre-snap and knows how to locate his hot reads … dynamic with zone-read and RPO game … well-built athlete who runs with toughness and balance as a ball carrier (grew up playing running back and linebacker and never lost that mentality with the ball in his hands) … averaged 10.1 yards per carry over his career and led USC in rushing touchdowns in each of the past two seasons … emotional competitor and exhibits “field general” leadership qualities on tape … highly productive career, accounting for an FBS-best 120 touchdowns over the last three seasons; only two other players reached triple digits over that span (Sam Hartman, 116; Bo Nix, 105) … finished his career 23-10 as a starter (18-8 at USC and 5-2 at Oklahoma) — the Trojans’ defense gave up at least 34 points in all eight losses (43.0 points per game allowed).

WEAKNESSES: Holds the ball loose from his body, and ball security is a major concern (in the pocket and as a ball carrier) — 16 of his 33 career fumbles came in 2023… guilty of bypassing singles and doubles as he searches for home runs and asks too much of his offensive line (240 of his dropbacks the last two seasons lasted 4-plus seconds) … can get stuck on reads too long, and eyes need to be more efficient and manipulative … pressure will speed up his process and lead to negative results(see 2023 Notre Dame tape) … partially responsible for being sacked 84 times over the last three years, including 35 times in 2023 … hastily abandons his passing mechanics … occasionally leaves clean pockets in favor of creation mode … NFL scouts say it will be important for Caleb to “leave no doubt” during the interview process that he is all-in on football (NFL scout: “He wants to be Jay-Z of the NFL and a true entrepreneur, and that’s great as long as he’s winning on the field.”).

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at USC, Williams was a playmaking quarterback in head coach Lincoln Riley’s RPO, spread scheme with Air Raid con cepts (Y-Cross, mesh, etc.) and heavy play action (38.5 percent in 2023). One of the most decorated and productive players in USC’s rich football history, he set single-season school records for passing yards and touchdowns in 2022 and accounted for more plays of 20-plus yards (134) and 50-plus yards (20) than any other college player over the last two seasons. With his base and body balance, Williams is always in a “ready-to-throw” position to deliver throws anywhere on the field with velocity and accuracy. What makes him special is his poise and mobility to masterfully buy time and create second-chance plays, although he tends to be overconfident in his ability to find answers among the chaos. He led the FBS in touchdowns (120) and “wow” plays over the last three years, but he also led the country in fumbles (33) over that same span and needs to take better care of the football. Overall, Williams needs to be more consistent working on-schedule from the pocket, but you live with the hiccups because the positives are special with his dynamic passing skills and instinctive ability to create. Though stylistically he is like a really impressive karaoke-style version of Patrick Mahomes, he is truly unique as a playmaker.

 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Caleb Williams write-up:

 

I have a The Athletic subscription, I'll see if it lets m post it on here. He's my favorite draft guide guy. He isnt  perfect on his analysis but gets it right most the time.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

His analysis of Fields in 2021. Who he had ranked 4th overall (at QB) after Trey Lance and Zach Wilson:

STRENGTHS: Well-strapped together athlete who takes care of his body…moves with the fluid, composed feet of a former shortstop…shows a natural feel for timing, touch and accuracy on throws within structure…strong arm and shows the ability to drive the football, especially when he steps and torques through his hips…sturdy in the pocket…recognizes defensive back assignments and places the ball away from trouble on his throws…above-average stride speed and flashes a burst when he [7] tucks and runs…noteworthy toughness to finish through contact and play through pain (see the 2021 Sugar Bowl vs. Clemson)…even-keeled play personality and shows the same steady focus on each play…voted a 2020 team captain…self-assured competitor who inspires confidence in his teammates (Ohio State head coach Ryan Day: “The mindset of a young man of that age is so impressive”)…outstanding production at Ohio State with a career 67-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio with 19 rushing touchdowns…finished with a 20-2 record as the Buckeyes’ starter (only two losses came in the College Football Playoffs).

WEAKNESSES: Undeveloped field vision…locks onto his preferred read and doesn’t consistently find his second and third options (sometimes by design)…needs to be quicker eliminating things post-snap…stares down reads and doesn’t play with a consistent sense of urgency…needs to be better taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing throws…his passes lose life when attempting to throw off-balance…ball security needs work: holds the ball loose in the pocket and as a runner (12 fumbles over the last two seasons)…needs to do a better job of avoiding hits…benefited from an all-star cast around him (both players and play-calling).

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Ohio State, Fields was one of college football’s best players the last two seasons in Day’s multiple spread offense. With Jake Fromm blocking him at Georgia, he transferred to Columbus in 2019 and needed only 21 games to reach No. 2 in Ohio State history in career passing touchdowns (67). He twice earned Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors. Fields has had the spotlight on him for a long time and he hasn’t wilted while displaying the confidence and competitive toughness that teammates rally behind. He shows excellent tempo when the play is on-schedule, but he must speed up his target-to-target progression reads and improve his urgency when the initial target is taken away. Overall, Fields’ decision-making is more methodical than spontaneous, but he has high-ceiling traits with his athleticism, accuracy and intangibles. He projects as a high-end NFL starter if he can quicken his reads and process.

[Pixote]

14 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I have a The Athletic subscription, I'll see if it lets m post it on here. He's my favorite draft guide guy. He isnt  perfect on his analysis but gets it right most the time.

The Athletic is by far my favorite site to visit, and "The Beast" is an awesome publication for subscribers. It's the best draft guide available, IMO.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

11 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

His analysis of Fields in 2021. Who he had ranked 4th overall (at QB) after Trey Lance and Zach Wilson:

STRENGTHS: Well-strapped together athlete who takes care of his body…moves with the fluid, composed feet of a former shortstop…shows a natural feel for timing, touch and accuracy on throws within structure…strong arm and shows the ability to drive the football, especially when he steps and torques through his hips…sturdy in the pocket…recognizes defensive back assignments and places the ball away from trouble on his throws…above-average stride speed and flashes a burst when he [7] tucks and runs…noteworthy toughness to finish through contact and play through pain (see the 2021 Sugar Bowl vs. Clemson)…even-keeled play personality and shows the same steady focus on each play…voted a 2020 team captain…self-assured competitor who inspires confidence in his teammates (Ohio State head coach Ryan Day: “The mindset of a young man of that age is so impressive”)…outstanding production at Ohio State with a career 67-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio with 19 rushing touchdowns…finished with a 20-2 record as the Buckeyes’ starter (only two losses came in the College Football Playoffs).

WEAKNESSES: Undeveloped field vision…locks onto his preferred read and doesn’t consistently find his second and third options (sometimes by design)…needs to be quicker eliminating things post-snap…stares down reads and doesn’t play with a consistent sense of urgency…needs to be better taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing throws…his passes lose life when attempting to throw off-balance…ball security needs work: holds the ball loose in the pocket and as a runner (12 fumbles over the last two seasons)…needs to do a better job of avoiding hits…benefited from an all-star cast around him (both players and play-calling).

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Ohio State, Fields was one of college football’s best players the last two seasons in Day’s multiple spread offense. With Jake Fromm blocking him at Georgia, he transferred to Columbus in 2019 and needed only 21 games to reach No. 2 in Ohio State history in career passing touchdowns (67). He twice earned Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors. Fields has had the spotlight on him for a long time and he hasn’t wilted while displaying the confidence and competitive toughness that teammates rally behind. He shows excellent tempo when the play is on-schedule, but he must speed up his target-to-target progression reads and improve his urgency when the initial target is taken away. Overall, Fields’ decision-making is more methodical than spontaneous, but he has high-ceiling traits with his athleticism, accuracy and intangibles. He projects as a high-end NFL starter if he can quicken his reads and process.

I think both of this write-ups - both the Field(s) one and the Caleb one are probably the most balanced and reasonable I have seen.  I like the Caleb one a lot more - but it doesn't mean Caleb doesn't have some of the challenges we have talked about and noted here - I just really love the stuff that is in the "strength" category cause those are the types of skills needed to turn into an elite NFL QB.  But he still has to develop some of those weakness(es) and in some cases its just more continue to hone and mature and pick and choose his battles of when to go big game hunting vs. not.  But to me it is the flashes of processing multiple reads, the platform's that he throws (enabling him to make throws everywhere and quickly - so when opportunity is there and he sees that tight window he can nail it and throw with anticipation.  

I'm really excited for Caleb. We'll ultimately see how the intangibles, how he grows, how he responds to what will be the toughest challenge he's faced yet from a football perspective (nothing harder than playing QB in the NFL).  

[adam]

Super wild how accurate Brugler was on Fields in terms of the projection, not what he did good or bad in college, but what he needs to do in the NFL to fulfill his potential:

"but he must speed up his target-to-target progression reads and improve his urgency when the initial target is taken away."

"if he can quicken his reads and process."

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

12 minutes ago, adam said:

Super wild how accurate Brugler was on Fields in terms of the projection, not what he did good or bad in college, but what he needs to do in the NFL to fulfill his potential:

"but he must speed up his target-to-target progression reads and improve his urgency when the initial target is taken away."

"if he can quicken his reads and process."

 

So the projection on Williams remains to be seen in the NFL?  

"Holds the ball loose from his body, and ball security is a major concern (in the pocket and as a ball carrier)"

"guilty of bypassing singles and doubles as he searches for home runs and asks too much of his offensive line (240 of his dropbacks the last two seasons lasted 4-plus seconds)" - One of the points AZ mentioned

"can get stuck on reads too long, and eyes need to be more efficient and manipulative … pressure will speed up his process and lead to negative results(see 2023 Notre Dame tape)"

 

 

[Mongo3451]

14 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So the projection on Williams remains to be seen in the NFL?  

That's overstating the obvious... ? 

[BearFan PHX]

52 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So the projection on Williams remains to be seen in the NFL?  

"Holds the ball loose from his body, and ball security is a major concern (in the pocket and as a ball carrier)"

"guilty of bypassing singles and doubles as he searches for home runs and asks too much of his offensive line (240 of his dropbacks the last two seasons lasted 4-plus seconds)" - One of the points AZ mentioned

"can get stuck on reads too long, and eyes need to be more efficient and manipulative … pressure will speed up his process and lead to negative results(see 2023 Notre Dame tape)"

 

 

oh please, you are cherry picking. The vast majority of analysis about Williams is extremely positive, even if these issues are ALSO true.

But we get it, you dont think Williams is special. Time will show, and then youll have to stand behind your words. I think it's going to be embarrassing, as if you'd been arguing against taking Walter Payton or something.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

oh please, you are cherry picking. The vast majority of analysis about Williams is extremely positive, even if these issues are ALSO true.

I see.  So I should only “cherry-pick” all the positive stuff … even (as you say) if this analysis is accurate?  
 

You know having a separate viewpoint than your own is ok right?  It’s what makes the world go around and TalkBears what it is.  Or am I being too “inane”?  “arguing against taking Walter Payton” …seriously?  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

And I should add that if I’m wrong about Williams that means we’re winning “multiple super bowls” as you’ve guaranteed.  So why wouldn’t I be happy about that?  ??‍♂️

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's overstating the obvious... ? 

Eating and feeling my oats.  ??

 

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I see.  So I should only “cherry-pick” all the positive stuff … even (as you say) if this analysis is accurate?  
 

You know having a separate viewpoint than your own is ok right?  It’s what makes the world go around and TalkBears what it is.  Or am I being too “inane”?  “arguing against taking Walter Payton” …seriously?  

oh come on. I said even if what you said is ALSO true - trying to pretend Im being offensive is an old played out gambit. Youre not a victim, Im just having my opinion.

What Im saying is youre cherry picking the comments, they dont in any way represent the general consensus view. Also, as you know, I dont even care what the consensus is, I make my own opinions, so id be the last to say "most agree Caleb will be good" as an argument. Im just saying, you cant use those quotes as proof of anything other than a contrary opinion exists, and of course it does, but in lesser numbers than the positive expectations.

But yes seriously. Caleb has a clear trajectory to being the most important player in Bears history. If he wins 3 superbowls, he will be more important than Payton. He will be the Michael Jordan of the Bears.

Will he achieve that potential? I have no idea. But if I had to bet (and I avoid betting) but if I had to bet yes or no on Williams, it's an easy yes. At least 2 to 1 he becomes that champion.

If you're so solidly on the record that we shouldnt pick him, then youre going to feel silly when we all go crazy for the guy as he starts to dominate the league.

 

[adam]

18 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So the projection on Williams remains to be seen in the NFL?  

"Holds the ball loose from his body, and ball security is a major concern (in the pocket and as a ball carrier)"

"guilty of bypassing singles and doubles as he searches for home runs and asks too much of his offensive line (240 of his dropbacks the last two seasons lasted 4-plus seconds)" - One of the points AZ mentioned

"can get stuck on reads too long, and eyes need to be more efficient and manipulative … pressure will speed up his process and lead to negative results(see 2023 Notre Dame tape)"

 

 

AZ, I was just pointing out the things that he said Fields needed to do or improve on, the "if he can" or "he needs to" or "he must", and he was spot on if you look at all of them. I really don't care about the things he did, those were outcomes visible in the eye ball test and stats. The things that were missing, absent, or lacking are just as important. What you can do is as important as what you can't do.

These are Williams' and Fields' "Ifs, Needs to, and musts":

CW
1. eyes need to be more efficient and manipulative 
2. needs to take better care of the football
3. needs to be more consistent working on-schedule from the pocket

JF
1. needs to be quicker eliminating things post-snap
2. needs to be better taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing throws
3. ball security needs work
4. needs to do a better job of avoiding hits
5. he must speed up his target-to-target progression reads and improve his urgency when the initial target is taken away
6. if he can quicken his reads and process

Notice the difference? Williams coming out is a much more polished QB and player as a whole. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

Williams coming out is a much more polished QB and player as a whole. 

Williams is a clear cut #1 pick, and looks like the best most NFL ready QB coming out of college in many years.

Fields was the 4th QB taken, with serious flaws that persist though his career, now as a backup no one offered even a 3rd rounder for.

Fields sucks at "quarterbacking" despite his physical tools, and Williams looks to be on a trajectory that could end with him as the most significant Bears player of all time.

If someone can't see the difference, I think they don't know what they are looking at. It couldn't be more clear cut.

[Mongo3451]

7 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

If someone can't see the difference, I think they don't know what they are looking at. It couldn't be more clear cut.

I wouldn't go that far.  There have been too many QBs that looked like they were going to be the next great, only to prove us all wrong.  The scouting for Fields was ridiculously accurate and he couldn't fix it soon enough.  The scouting on Caleb looks just as accurate, with him having less to overcome.  So, I do get your point, however argumentative it may be.

[BearFan PHX]

Listen, this is all starting to heat up again - I am not the most argumentative person on this board by far.

When someone says that shit and chocolate are the same thing, it's OK for me to say it isn't. When they keep pressing the point it's ok for me to say they aren't much of a chef if they can't see the difference.

This is beyond stupid now. Fields sucks, and Williams is the best prospect in years. And it's OK for me to not only say that, but to say that suggesting otherwise is stupid.

Every opinion isnt a golden snowflake worthy of admiration. There ARE dumb ideas, and when i see them, Im gonna say so.

Im sick to death of being called out because I dont massage some ego praising really dumb ideas.

There are PLENTY of things in football etc that are not so obvious. I dont claim to be always right or have some deep ability to know everything - that's just nonsense being thrown at me by people who say dumb things and then want to make that my fault.

Most things on this board are unknown to me and all of us. I routinely use words to moderate my opinion so it isnt perceived as absolutism.

But I'm DONE being called out as a bully because people argue stupid things and then cant stand the heat when someone points out how stupid it is to equivocate Fields and Williams.

And then to be upset months later that I used such a hurtful term as "inane" LOL really? Are we THAT fragile? GTFOutta here.

If people need their opinions to be praised, then say smarter stuff.

[adam]

50 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Williams is a clear cut #1 pick, and looks like the best most NFL ready QB coming out of college in many years.

Fields was the 4th QB taken, with serious flaws that persist though his career, now as a backup no one offered even a 3rd rounder for.

Fields sucks at "quarterbacking" despite his physical tools, and Williams looks to be on a trajectory that could end with him as the most significant Bears player of all time.

If someone can't see the difference, I think they don't know what they are looking at. It couldn't be more clear cut.

Yeah, I was just responding. At this point there is not really any reason to compare them anymore. I was just posting Brugler's comments on Williams, as he has been pretty spot on with his assessments in terms of projections in the past. 

There are a whole bunch of other comments on other players of interest that I will post. I just haven't gotten around to it yet. I was not expecting another Williams v. Fields thread, that was not my intention. 

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, adam said:

Yeah, I was just responding. At this point there is not really any reason to compare them anymore. I was just posting Brugler's comments on Williams, as he has been pretty spot on with his assessments in terms of projections in the past. 

There are a whole bunch of other comments on other players of interest that I will post. I just haven't gotten around to it yet. I was not expecting another Williams v. Fields thread, that was not my intention. 

it's all good. I was really responding to Grizz's comments, not yours. I agree with about 95% of what you post, and the 5% where I might see it another way, I always find you reasonable and cool, so it's all good.

[Daventry]

1 hour ago, adam said:

AZ, I was just pointing out the things that he said Fields needed to do or improve on, the "if he can" or "he needs to" or "he must", and he was spot on if you look at all of them. I really don't care about the things he did, those were outcomes visible in the eye ball test and stats. The things that were missing, absent, or lacking are just as important. What you can do is as important as what you can't do.

These are Williams' and Fields' "Ifs, Needs to, and musts":

CW
1. eyes need to be more efficient and manipulative 
2. needs to take better care of the football
3. needs to be more consistent working on-schedule from the pocket

JF
1. needs to be quicker eliminating things post-snap
2. needs to be better taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing throws
3. ball security needs work
4. needs to do a better job of avoiding hits
5. he must speed up his target-to-target progression reads and improve his urgency when the initial target is taken away
6. if he can quicken his reads and process

Notice the difference? Williams coming out is a much more polished QB and player as a whole. 

There we go.  A perfect summary of what has been obvious for weeks.  Thank you Adam, as usual priceless statistics and analysis.  Sadly, rebels without a cause will continue to pollute the airways with idiocy.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Can we change the name of this board? I suggest "The not so great Justin vs Caleb debate."  ?

This should be a fun/great time to discuss every prospect but the one who is 99% locked as our number 1 pick and been discussed since December. 

Turn the page and let's discuss Latu, Turner, and Verse. Or Ozume, Naber, Bowers, and Thomas Jr.  Who fits the scheme and team best etc. 

 

 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Listen, this is all starting to heat up again - I am not the most argumentative person on this board by far.

When someone says that shit and chocolate are the same thing, it's OK for me to say it isn't. When they keep pressing the point it's ok for me to say they aren't much of a chef if they can't see the difference.

This is beyond stupid now. Fields sucks, and Williams is the best prospect in years. And it's OK for me to not only say that, but to say that suggesting otherwise is stupid.

Every opinion isnt a golden snowflake worthy of admiration. There ARE dumb ideas, and when i see them, Im gonna say so.

Im sick to death of being called out because I dont massage some ego praising really dumb ideas.

There are PLENTY of things in football etc that are not so obvious. I dont claim to be always right or have some deep ability to know everything - that's just nonsense being thrown at me by people who say dumb things and then want to make that my fault.

Most things on this board are unknown to me and all of us. I routinely use words to moderate my opinion so it isnt perceived as absolutism.

But I'm DONE being called out as a bully because people argue stupid things and then cant stand the heat when someone points out how stupid it is to equivocate Fields and Williams.

And then to be upset months later that I used such a hurtful term as "inane" LOL really? Are we THAT fragile? GTFOutta here.

If people need their opinions to be praised, then say smarter stuff.

These are statements Dane Brugler made in his Beast draft guide. I like his work but will say he had Bryce Young rated higher than  CJ Stroud last year. This is his opinion after studying hours on a prospect. He's not always right .

We are drafting CW, so I want him to succeed but great prospects do fail occasionally so calling him great right now is a little premature.

Did you call Brugler stupid last year because he had Young rated higher than Stroud? 

[Mongo3451]

58 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

These are statements Dane Brugler made in his Beast draft guide. I like his work but will say he had Bryce Young rated higher than  CJ Stroud last year. This is his opinion after studying hours on a prospect. He's not always right .

We are drafting CW, so I want him to succeed but great prospects do fail occasionally so calling him great right now is a little premature.

Did you call Brugler stupid last year because he had Young rated higher than Stroud? 

Young faced the same bad circumstance Justin did.  Maybe worse.  I truly believe franchises can ruin players.  I firmly believe we would have ruined Mahomes with our atrocious OL.  Williams will have the full benefit of a solid foundation to start his career.  Just like Mahomes.  All told, Young has a chance, but the odds are now stacked against him.

[Stinger226]

31 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Young faced the same bad circumstance Justin did.  Maybe worse.  I truly believe franchises can ruin players.  I firmly believe we would have ruined Mahomes with our atrocious OL.  Williams will have the full benefit of a solid foundation to start his career.  Just like Mahomes.  All told, Young has a chance, but the odds are now stacked against him.

Agree with all all of that. If CW was coming here 3 years ago , it would have been difficult for him to.

[Pixote]

27 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Agree with all all of that. If CW was coming here 3 years ago , it would have been difficult for him to.

If we had the roster from 3 years ago, Poles would be trading the pick, not drafting Williams. Fortunately, Poles has done an amazing job improving the Bears to the point where we can support a rookie QB. We just need to be patient for one more year while Poles gets us ready to be contenders.