Caleb Williams, QB, USC selected #1 overall

[adam]

Bear the F' Down!

 

[Stinger226]

It starts now with a potential top 5 QB, no turning back.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

The era has begun, Poles has his QB. Welcome Caleb Williams, now be the greatest.

[Mongo3451]

Loved his walk up!  Nothing but business

[CrackerDog]

Just glad he’s excited to be a Bear.  Unlike that little bitch Cedric Benson.  

[adam]

11 minutes ago, CrackerDog said:

Just glad he’s excited to be a Bear.  Unlike that little bitch Cedric Benson.  

Yeah Benson did not want to go to Chicago.

Williams is screaming, Odunze is bearing down.

[BearFan PHX]

22 minutes ago, CrackerDog said:

Just glad he’s excited to be a Bear.  Unlike that little bitch Cedric Benson.  

Ha! YES!

After Caleb was interviewed on stage, as he was walking away he grabbed the mic back and said "Beeeeeaaarrrs" like a tone of voice like "we're baaaa-aaaack"

I think Williams' image with all of us, myself included was hurt by him not having a PR agent. But why pay for one when we can get to know him now? H ewas still pick #1 even without professional hype. And he is not the guy i thought he was at all. He seems sunny and positive and excited and confident and I am ALL in.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Hell yeah!!! 

[adam]

As long as Williams stays healthy, it's hard for me to see him doing any worse than what Geno Smith did last year, who averaged 241 yds per game, had 20 TDs and 9 INTs. That feels like the floor for Williams. Taking some other recent QBs into account, like Stroud and Love, this seems like Williams most likely ranges for various stats:

Completions: [LOW 310 | AVG 338 | HIGH 375]
Attempts: [LOW 490 | AVG 526 | HIGH 580]
Comp%: [ LOW 62.5% | AVG 64.3% | HIGH 65.2%]
Yards: [LOW 3620 | AVG 3964 | HIGH 4284]
TD: [LOW 20 | AVG 25 | HIGH 32]
INT: [LOW 5 | AVG 8 | HIGH 12]

So the most probable numbers would be 338-526, 64.3%, 3,964 yds, 25 TD, 8 INT

If Williams hit that number of passing yards, it would be the 6th best all-time for a rookie QB. 25 TDs would be 5th, only 8 INTs would be 5th best, and 64.3% would be 6th. So hit mean set of numbers put him between 5th and 6th all-time for a rookie. With the upgraded supporting cast, I think he exceeds those numbers in every category. I think he falls in between the average numbers and high numbers for al the stats.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

As long as Williams stays healthy, it's hard for me to see him doing any worse than what Geno Smith did last year, who averaged 241 yds per game, had 20 TDs and 9 INTs. That feels like the floor for Williams. Taking some other recent QBs into account, like Stroud and Love, this seems like Williams most likely ranges for various stats:

Completions: [LOW 310 | AVG 338 | HIGH 375]
Attempts: [LOW 490 | AVG 526 | HIGH 580]
Comp%: [ LOW 62.5% | AVG 64.3% | HIGH 65.2%]
Yards: [LOW 3620 | AVG 3964 | HIGH 4284]
TD: [LOW 20 | AVG 25 | HIGH 32]
INT: [LOW 5 | AVG 8 | HIGH 12]

So the high probable numbers would be 338-526, 64.3%, 3,964 yds, 25 TD, 8 INT

If Williams hit that number of passing yards, it would be the 6th best all-time for a rookie QB. 25 TDs would be 5th, only 8 INTs would be 5th best, and 64.3% would be 6th. So hit mean set of numbers put him between 5th and 6th all-time for a rookie. With the upgraded supporting cast, I think he exceeds those numbers in every category. I think he falls in between the average numbers and high numbers for al the stats.

Vegas has him at like 3600 yard's or something as his over under.  I also think if you are saying those are the high probability yet those are 6th best all-time that probably says that isn't "High Probability".  Do I think he is capable, certainly, I also think there is a large number of really talented #1 overall picks who had their fair share of struggles in their first year, as that adjustment takes time.  

[BearFan PHX]

adam, that all seems about right to me too

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Vegas has him at like 3600 yard's or something as his over under.  I also think if you are saying those are the high probability yet those are 6th best all-time that probably says that isn't "High Probability".  Do I think he is capable, certainly, I also think there is a large number of really talented #1 overall picks who had their fair share of struggles in their first year, as that adjustment takes time.  

for sure, it will be bumpy. I still think Williams will put up numbers, but will he lose a game or two by being baited at a critical point into a turnover? Could well be.

So I expect evidence of greatness, some rookie mistakes, and some adversity. How that shakes out into wins and losses I dunno, but what it portends for the future should be clear.

[adam]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Vegas has him at like 3600 yard's or something as his over under.  I also think if you are saying those are the high probability yet those are 6th best all-time that probably says that isn't "High Probability".  Do I think he is capable, certainly, I also think there is a large number of really talented #1 overall picks who had their fair share of struggles in their first year, as that adjustment takes time.  

It was high and low range, with the average being the most likely numbers. We are so skewed in Chicago having decades of bad QB play that even saying Williams should hit 4K passing yards with the group he has comes off as being a homer. I just say why not? If Andrew Luck can do it with the group he had in Indy, 4K passing yards with 17 games should not be an issue for Williams. Look at Luck's rookie numbers and his top 3 WR, 2 TE, and 2 RBs. His best player was a 34 year old Reggie Wayne. His TEs and RBs were laughable.

Andrew Luck 339-627, 54.1%, 4374 yds, 23 TD, 18 INT

Reggie Wayne (34) - 106-1355
Donnie Avery (28) - 60-781
TY Hilton (23) - 50-861

Dwayne Allen (22) - 45-521
Coby Fleener (24) - 26-281

Vick Ballard (22) - 211-814 yds / 17-152
Donald Brown (25) - 108-417 yds / 9-93

Moore, Allen, Odunze, with Kmet and Everett, and Swift plus Herbert make the Indy group look like the little league. 

[BearFan PHX]

32 minutes ago, adam said:

It was high and low range, with the average being the most likely numbers. We are so skewed in Chicago having decades of bad QB play that even saying Williams should hit 4K passing yards with the group he has comes off as being a homer. I just say why not? If Andrew Luck can do it with the group he had in Indy, 4K passing yards with 17 games should not be an issue for Williams. Look at Luck's rookie numbers and his top 3 WR, 2 TE, and 2 RBs. His best player was a 34 year old Reggie Wayne. His TEs and RBs were laughable.

Andrew Luck 339-627, 54.1%, 4374 yds, 23 TD, 18 INT

Reggie Wayne (34) - 106-1355
Donnie Avery (28) - 60-781
TY Hilton (23) - 50-861

Dwayne Allen (22) - 45-521
Coby Fleener (24) - 26-281

Vick Ballard (22) - 211-814 yds / 17-152
Donald Brown (25) - 108-417 yds / 9-93

Moore, Allen, Odunze, with Kmet and Everett, and Swift plus Herbert make the Indy group look like the little league. 

true. i guess the flip side is that Indy probably felt like they had no running game, so they threw a lot?

I have no problem thinking that Williams might match the per pass numbers that Luck put up, but I wonder if he will have as many attempts?

I think the Bears offense will be a balanced attack, which will be great for taking all the load off of Williams' shoulders, while being a total nightmare for defenses. We've talked a lot about the problems our receiver group will present to defenses, and whether Caleb can execute enough to make that talent shine, but we havent spoken much about our new running back and how much worse it's gonna be when we have a good ground game while simultaneously putting all those WRs out there.

The big winner in the Williams / Odunze draft is going to be our HB Swift.

I think our new motto should be "Who needs Taylor, when we've got D'Andre?" LOL

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

true. i guess the flip side is that Indy probably felt like they had no running game, so they threw a lot?

I have no problem thinking that Williams might match the per pass numbers that Luck put up, but I wonder if he will have as many attempts?

I think the Bears offense will be a balanced attack, which will be great for taking all the load off of Williams' shoulders, while being a total nightmare for defenses. We've talked a lot about the problems our receiver group will present to defenses, and whether Caleb can execute enough to make that talent shine, but we havent spoken much about our new running back and how much worse it's gonna be when we have a good ground game while simultaneously putting all those WRs out there.

The big winner in the Williams / Odunze draft is going to be our HB Swift.

I think our new motto should be "Who needs Taylor, when we've got D'Andre?" LOL

I see what you did there. 

Also remember Caleb has never had a supporting cast like this in his life. I know the competition will be the toughest he has ever seen, but I think the supporting cast outweighs the difference.

What team actually concerns you from the schedule with Caleb at QB? Division games are always different, so here are the non-Division games:

HOME

Los Angeles Rams - without Donald, this is a completely different team/defense
Seattle Seahawks - with new coaching staff, this team is a big question mark
Jacksonville Jaguars - they never took off as many expected them to, Lawrence going into his 4th season and is good but not great
Tennessee Titans - No QB and no Henry, enjoy 4-6 wins annually
Carolina Panthers - They might win 3-4 games this year
New England Patriots - This team was terrible and now with Maye who is still learning, Year 1 of their rebuild

AWAY

Arizona Cardinals - Even after adding MHJ, this is still a bad team that feels like they are in the middle of rebuild but still have an expensive QB they don't want
San Francisco 49ers - They are running out of time with overpriced vets, now with a year of tape on Purdy. Still the team to beat in the NFC, but not scary.
Houston Texans - This may be the game of the year and a future Super Bowl matchup in the making. I like both teams, but teams now have tape on Stroud. He seemed to sneak up on teams who were not prepared.
Indianapolis Colts - This always feels like a slightly above average team, but without a QB
Washington Commanders - This team reminds me of NE for the NFC. How many hits can Daniels take? Every hit is like the Johnny Knox injury

So out of those 11 teams/games, SF and HOU are the only real challenges and mainly because they are good teams on the road. Outside of those two games, every other game should be considered winnable where the line favors the Bears or it is within a FG as the underdog. Against HOU and SF, the line will probably be +6 or 7. 

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, adam said:

I see what you did there. 

Also remember Caleb has never had a supporting cast like this in his life. I know the competition will be the toughest he has ever seen, but I think the supporting cast outweighs the difference.

What team actually concerns you from the schedule with Caleb at QB? Division games are always different, so here are the non-Division games:

HOME

Los Angeles Rams - without Donald, this is a completely different team/defense
Seattle Seahawks - with new coaching staff, this team is a big question mark
Jacksonville Jaguars - they never took off as many expected them to, Lawrence going into his 4th season and is good but not great
Tennessee Titans - No QB and no Henry, enjoy 4-6 wins annually
Carolina Panthers - They might win 3-4 games this year
New England Patriots - This team was terrible and now with Maye who is still learning, Year 1 of their rebuild

AWAY

Arizona Cardinals - Even after adding MHJ, this is still a bad team that feels like they are in the middle of rebuild but still have an expensive QB they don't want
San Francisco 49ers - They are running out of time with overpriced vets, now with a year of tape on Purdy. Still the team to beat in the NFC, but not scary.
Houston Texans - This may be the game of the year and a future Super Bowl matchup in the making. I like both teams, but teams now have tape on Stroud. He seemed to sneak up on teams who were not prepared.
Indianapolis Colts - This always feels like a slightly above average team, but without a QB
Washington Commanders - This team reminds me of NE for the NFC. How many hits can Daniels take? Every hit is like the Johnny Knox injury

So out of those 11 teams/games, SF and HOU are the only real challenges and mainly because they are good teams on the road. Outside of those two games, every other game should be considered winnable where the line favors the Bears or it is within a FG as the underdog. Against HOU and SF, the line will probably be +6 or 7. 

I think the Bears biggest opponent will be how well they fulfill their own potential. It'll all be about coaching and execution. Which is always true, but in this case we have serious winning potential.

[Stinger226]

Injuries are the only thing in the way of a winning record. Something people keep forgetting is a generational QB lifts the players around him. Even as a rookie ( will make mistakes) you will see him give the OL a boost and help make the weapons better if that is possible.

[BearFan PHX]

19 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Injuries are the only thing in the way of a winning record. Something people keep forgetting is a generational QB lifts the players around him. Even as a rookie ( will make mistakes) you will see him give the OL a boost and help make the weapons better if that is possible.

no doubt Calebs pocket presence and the way he moves to help his lineman will make things better even if he had the same line performance we had last year. Not saying he could thrive with that, but whatever he faces he will make at least somewhat better by his pocket skills.

[AZ54]

17 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Injuries are the only thing in the way of a winning record. Something people keep forgetting is a generational QB lifts the players around him. Even as a rookie ( will make mistakes) you will see him give the OL a boost and help make the weapons better if that is possible.

Caleb is a QB with generational arm talent.  That's it, although he has other positive traits.  He has a ton of learning to do.  Ball security is horrible with 30 fumbles in college.  Deep passing is inaccurate but should improve IF he can improve his footwork in the pocket.   He needs a lot of work to get rid of the happy feet.   He is a rare arm talent that can get away with that on shorter throws simply because he can throw off-angle but IMO when you start getting beyond 20yds it really affects his accuracy.  A bunch of his "big play" highlights showed open receivers having to make big adjustments to the ball, adjustments that usually brought the coverage back into the play.  

Over-selling him for what he is at this point won't change any of the bad habits.  IMO he's got the work ethic but he needs to hear the criticism to drive him to improve.  I hope our coaches are already in his ear doing just that.  To start with, this year he needs to do what he too often refused to do at USC.... take the easy read and let his teammates do the work.   There will be times when plays break down and then he can go do his thing.  I just hope the plays aren't breaking down because he is still bypassing the open early-read while looking for the big gain.  

Bottom line for me is that this year his teammates need to lift his play.  He has the players around him to do that if he just lets them do their job.  

[dawhizz]

I do think that we need to prepare for the possibility that two things may be true next year:

1) Caleb Williams has the best statistical season for a Bears QB ever. 
2) Caleb Williams has the third best statistical season for a QB in the division. 
 

Keep in mind the years Jared Goff and Jordan Love had last year would both, unquestionably, be the best Bears QB season ever. We can certainly hope for some regression, but can’t expect it to happen. 

[BearFan PHX]

I dont think Williams is just an arm. Daniels, for example, has a better arm and is mobile as well. Fields has a huge arm too.

Caleb is a playmaker. He reads defenses extremely well, and can get the ball out fast. He is more NFL ready than either Daniels or Fields.

Williams is not just a physical specimen, he is an actual quarterback.

It's not his arm that's generational, it's the way he plays the position and the completeness of his skill set.

[adam]

6 hours ago, dawhizz said:

I do think that we need to prepare for the possibility that two things may be true next year:

1) Caleb Williams has the best statistical season for a Bears QB ever. 
2) Caleb Williams has the third best statistical season for a QB in the division. 
 

Keep in mind the years Jared Goff and Jordan Love had last year would both, unquestionably, be the best Bears QB season ever. We can certainly hope for some regression, but can’t expect it to happen. 

There are a whole bunch of outcomes for this season.  Our fanbase is so tainted towards bad QB play that even mentioned 4K passing yards seems like a joke. However, there are probably better odds that Williams hits 4K than throwing for less than 3500 (unless injury related). 

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont think Williams is just an arm. Daniels, for example, has a better arm and is mobile as well. Fields has a huge arm too.

Caleb is a playmaker. He reads defenses extremely well, and can get the ball out fast. He is more NFL ready than either Daniels or Fields.

Williams is not just a physical specimen, he is an actual quarterback.

It's not his arm that's generational, it's the way he plays the position and the completeness of his skill set.

I didn’t say he’s just an arm.  I said it’s his arm talent that is generational.  Other traits as you said were not even best in class.   Of the top 6 QBs if you ranked them in each category I’m confident Caleb is top 2 or 3 in each except fumbles.  He might be last there and if I wasn’t using my phone I’d look it up.  Overall those traits made him the best prospect but he’ll need time to fix those bad habits.

 He gets one big advantage because our offense is all new with many new skill position players.  Nobody knows what to expect in the first few games.  

[BearFan PHX]

I guess we mostly agree, I just think Caleb reads a defense better than any. McCarthy is probably second in that.

But I don't think he has generational arm talent per se, I think it's his QBs brain, character, maturity and desire to win that's generational.

He does make really great off platform throws, but I think it's his "quarterbacking" that's elite?

[BearFan PHX]

Here's 20 minutes of Caleb making big plays in structure and getting the ball out fast. His throwing motion is insane too. But mostly you see him having elite pocket presence and reading and manipulating defenses.

This oughtta bust some of the media narratives about always holding the ball too long. This is a fantastic prospect we are getting. The Oklahoma stuff int he first few minutes is good, but the USC stuff is crazy good.