Schedule released

[BearFan PHX]

Well the Bears' schedule has been released, and we don't play ANY divisional games until the last 9 weeks of the season. That's kind of amazing, because it gives Williams time to grow before he fights for a playoff berth.

I haven't looked at any other teams yet, but maybe the NFL is pushing divisional games later int he year on purpose so playoff hopes stay alive as long as possible for each team, or maybe the Bears just got lucky, or are being helped by the league (less likely!)

Whatever it is, it's good news for us this year.

[Stinger226]

A lot of people are complaining but, like you, most winnable games are early giving us time to grow and get our act together . I dont like 4 of 6 games on the road at the end of the season but that is out of our control.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Well the Bears' schedule has been released, and we don't play ANY divisional games until the last 9 weeks of the season. That's kind of amazing, because it gives Williams time to grow before he fights for a playoff berth.

I haven't looked at any other teams yet, but maybe the NFL is pushing divisional games later int he year on purpose so playoff hopes stay alive as long as possible for each team, or maybe the Bears just got lucky, or are being helped by the league (less likely!)

Whatever it is, it's good news for us this year. 

How many "lucky" coincidences can there be before you question lol.  I mean look, they even drew Jacksonville for their 1st of back to back travel games. If it was Jax 2nd game, they would have the advantage of being acclimated to the travel time adjustment. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

How many "lucky" coincidences can there be before you question lol.  I mean look, they even drew Jacksonville for their 1st of back to back travel games. If it was Jax 2nd game, they would have the advantage of being acclimated to the travel time adjustment. 

I dont know how much this goes on at the league headquarters, but all these things will make the Bears more likely to win the division. Not saying they will, just more likely.

I also see where the Giants are this years Hard Knocks team, so theres that piece of good news too.

[Bears4Ever_34]

Genuinely shocked they only gave them 3 primetime games. I hate how the only home night game they give the Bears is always the crappy Thursday games. I honestly can't recall the last home SNF or MNF game they've had in years. 

At first glance, my initial thoughts are that the team better get off to a hot start before that week 11 game against the Packers or it could be tough sledding to finish the season. The backloaded divisional games with SF thrown in there, as well as a 3 games in 10 days stretch, make it absolutely imperative to win early.

I've got them at 10-7. I think the division will be super competitive, but the Vikings will be playing for draft position by the end of the year while the Bears, Lions, and Packers battle for the playoffs.

[Stinger226]

Besides the 3 primetime games, they are on Thanksgiving and the London, both games that seem primetime to me.

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont know how much this goes on at the league headquarters, but all these things will make the Bears more likely to win the division. Not saying they will, just more likely.

I also see where the Giants are this years Hard Knocks team, so theres that piece of good news too.

I read more that clarified, the Giants are the offseason version of Hard Knocks, the preseason version is yet to be decided. I would imagine the Bears would make a very attractive candidate, but we would like to avoid it if possible.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Besides the 3 primetime games, they are on Thanksgiving and the London, both games that seem primetime to me.

Yeah, I definitely see turkey day as a prime-time game.  There also may be some flex-in games later in the season with if division is tight.

[BearFan PHX]

52 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Yeah, I definitely see turkey day as a prime-time game.  There also may be some flex-in games later in the season with if division is tight.

yes, if we are playing well, i do expect flex games later in the season for sure. I think Williams is going to be a media star in the league. Maybe not right away, but once he starts winning.

[Stinger226]

14 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Yeah, I definitely see turkey day as a prime-time game.  There also may be some flex-in games later in the season with if division is tight.

If the way the games are laid out and we go 7-1 or 8-2  in the easy part of the schedule, you know we will get some flexed games. Personally I like having Sunday afternoon games,  Im a creature of habit. 

[adam]

I was assuming the Bears would be up for several flex games later in the season. The last 8 weeks are going to be tough with 6 division games + SEA and SF. Going 4-4 in those 8 would be huge and required for the playoffs. I am hoping they can start fast and go 7-2 or 8-1, which would be crazy but very possible. I assume 7-2 and 6-3 is the most realistic, but HOU is the only really tough game. LAR is in CHI, and for IND, it would be Week 3 with Richardson coming off injury. 

If the Bears start 8-1 before playing GB, Williams will be the leading MVP and OPoY candidate, Flus CotY, and Poles EotY. That would be the 2023 win total in 8 games. 

Not playing the division games until later is a good thing for the Bears. Williams will have 9 games plus the bye before playing GB. That also means the defense will have that much more tape on Love and Co. 

[adam]

Here is a cool way to look at the schedule, solely based on net rest. I don't know how much it correlates to more or less success, but the Bears are tied for 8th and have 3 games with more rest and 2 games with less rest than their opponents:

Games with extra rest: +7 days @WSH, +3 days @SF, +3 days @ GB

Games with less rest: -7 days vs GB, -1 vs @DET

 

The away games with less rest seems to be the worst, and the Bears only get one game that fits that criteria (@DET with 1 less day of rest), which seems positive. They also get 3 other road games with extra rest, which should help for games on the road. I don't like giving GB an extra week to prepare of us though. That one sucks. 

 

With 2 THU games late in the season, the Bears do play 6 games in 32 days (basically every 5 games), I feel like that might catch up to them in late December.

[adam]

The team's track record against good/great QBs is not good. Hopefully the offense will help that, but the best QB a Flus defense ever beat was Goff. Besides Goff, in the other 6 wins, they faced Howell, Hoyer, Young, Dobbs, Murray, and Heinicke. In 2022, it was Lance, Mills, and Zappe. So in Flus' 10 wins, only Goff, Murray, and Young are still starting QBs. That scares me a little bit.

Here is what this season's QBs look like:

1 - Levis
2 - Stroud #15
3 - Richardson
4 - Stafford #6
5 - Young #29
6 - Lawrence #17
8 - Daniels/Mariota
9 - Murray #22
10 - Maye/Brissett
11 - Love #9
12 - McCarthy/Darnold
13 - Goff #11
14 - Purdy #1
15 - McCarthy/Darnold
16 - Goff #11
17 - Smith #14
18 - Love #9

4 games against top 10 QBs (Purdy, Lovex2, Stafford)
-----------------------------------
6 games against QBs from 11th-22nd
-----------------------------------
1 game against bottom 10 QBs (Young)
6 games against QBs without a QBR from 2023

I know it is not that easy, but just say the Bears lose the 4 against the top 10 QBs, split the middle games, and win all at the bottom, that is still a 10 win team without having to beat an elite QB. So just say they do and beat Love at least once, now you are lookin at an 11+ win team. 

[Stinger226]

Statistically Purdy is listed elite, but I dont consider him that.

Im more concerned about great coaches. 

2-4-11-13-14-16-18

[adam]

11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Statistically Purdy is listed elite, but I dont consider him that.

Im more concerned about great coaches. 

2-4-11-13-14-16-18

True, but QBR is also roster-based, he is obviously producing elite numbers due to his performance with his supporting cast and coaching.

[adam]

Revisiting the schedule and predictions.

Using the schedule grid, I went and tried to predict every game for every team based on last year's record, and which teams improved the most during the draft and offseason. The Bears were the only team with 2x top 10 picks. So they had the highest weighted draft for key contributors this season. MIN had 2x picks in the top 17 but lost McCarthy for the season. They went from a net positive to a net negative as Turner just negates the loss of Hunter. 

The Division winners are projected to be SF, DET, DAL, and ATL with the 3x Wild Cards being CHI, PHI, and GB (in no order). LAR and TB are lurking and could easily pop into the discussion and should be in the hunt until the last week.

For the AFC it is KC, MIA, HOU, and BAL with BUF, CIN, and NYJ as the WCs. DEN is the only other team close. It looks like PIT, CLE, and JAC will fade into no-man's land, between 6-9 wins.

The projected draft order for 2025 is:

1. NYG (1-3 wins) 6-11 last season, rolling with Daniel Jones, top RB is Singletary, and top TE is Bellinger. First coach fired is Daboll, tough schedule.
2. LVR (1-3 wins) 8-9 last season, Minshew starting QB, from Josh Jacobs to Zamir White at RB1, brutal schedule.
3. CAR (2-4 wins) 2-15 last season, new coaching staff, Mini Me starting QB
4. NE (2-4 wins) 4-13 last season, new coaching staff, QB1 unknown, tough schedule.
5. MIN (2-4 wins) 7-10 last season, Darnold QB1
6. TEN (4-6 wins) 6-11 last season, new coaching staff
7. ARZ  (4-6 wins) 4-13 last season, tough schedule
8. SEA (5-7 wins) 9-8 last season, new coaching staff, no rest advantage
9. IND (5-7 wins) 9-8 last season, Richardson looks terrible, no rest advantage
10. CLE (6-8 wins) 11-6 last season, cap hell thanks to Mr. Massage ($64M Cap hit for 3 more yrs lol), tough schedule

Overall the margin of error looks like 2 wins. I have the Bears going 12-5 (+/- 2 wins). They are projected to lose to HOU, LAR, DET, SF, and GB. Their only win against a 10-win team from last season comes against DET at home in Week 16.

Nothing seems too crazy right, right?

Thoughts?

[adam]

Going off EPA/Play which is ultimately what drives the scoring, the Bears have a very easy schedule in terms of defenses they will face. The best defense in terms of EPA/Play is SF, which was 8th. NE is the next best defense which was 9th and JAX was 13th. All other defenses were worse than the Bears defense, so 14 games against inferior defenses.

From an EPA perspective, the Bears have an overall better team in 7 games outright, a huge edge in 2, and are comparable in 7 other games (probably split), and have only one overall disadvantage (against SF).
 

CHI OVR ADVANTAGE: CAR, WAS, ARZ, TEN, IND, MINx2 = 7

CHI HUGE EDGE: NE, SEA = 2

CHI COMPARABLE: JAX, GBx2, LAR, DETx2, HOU = 7

CHI DISADVANTAGE: SF = 1

 

This is using last year's numbers. Obviously, teams can improve, stay the same, or get worse. To me, it is hard to say the Bears didn't improve this offseason, and with Williams and Odunze, more than most other teams they play. This type of schedule really looks like 10+ wins.

[adam]

On 8/21/2024 at 4:09 PM, adam said:

Revisiting the schedule and predictions.

Using the schedule grid, I went and tried to predict every game for every team based on last year's record, and which teams improved the most during the draft and offseason. The Bears were the only team with 2x top 10 picks. So they had the highest weighted draft for key contributors this season. MIN had 2x picks in the top 17 but lost McCarthy for the season. They went from a net positive to a net negative as Turner just negates the loss of Hunter. 

The Division winners are projected to be SF, DET, DAL, and ATL with the 3x Wild Cards being CHI, PHI, and GB (in no order). LAR and TB are lurking and could easily pop into the discussion and should be in the hunt until the last week.

For the AFC it is KC, MIA, HOU, and BAL with BUF, CIN, and NYJ as the WCs. DEN is the only other team close. It looks like PIT, CLE, and JAC will fade into no-man's land, between 6-9 wins.

The projected draft order for 2025 is:

1. NYG (1-3 wins) 6-11 last season, rolling with Daniel Jones, top RB is Singletary, and top TE is Bellinger. First coach fired is Daboll, tough schedule.
2. LVR (1-3 wins) 8-9 last season, Minshew starting QB, from Josh Jacobs to Zamir White at RB1, brutal schedule.
3. CAR (2-4 wins) 2-15 last season, new coaching staff, Mini Me starting QB
4. NE (2-4 wins) 4-13 last season, new coaching staff, QB1 unknown, tough schedule.
5. MIN (2-4 wins) 7-10 last season, Darnold QB1
6. TEN (4-6 wins) 6-11 last season, new coaching staff
7. ARZ  (4-6 wins) 4-13 last season, tough schedule
8. SEA (5-7 wins) 9-8 last season, new coaching staff, no rest advantage
9. IND (5-7 wins) 9-8 last season, Richardson looks terrible, no rest advantage
10. CLE (6-8 wins) 11-6 last season, cap hell thanks to Mr. Massage ($64M Cap hit for 3 more yrs lol), tough schedule

Overall the margin of error looks like 2 wins. I have the Bears going 12-5 (+/- 2 wins). They are projected to lose to HOU, LAR, DET, SF, and GB. Their only win against a 10-win team from last season comes against DET at home in Week 16.

Nothing seems too crazy right, right?

Thoughts?

From the original projected bottom 10, MIN is the only team completely blowing away projections. On the flip side, JAX has completely underperformed thru 6 weeks. 

1. NYG (1-3 wins) 2-4 - playing slightly better than expected
2. LVR (1-3 wins) 2-4 - playing slightly better than expected
3. CAR (2-4 wins) 1-5 - right on track
4. NE (2-4 wins) 1-5 - right on track
5. MIN (2-4 wins) 5-0 - exceeding projections by 1000%
6. TEN (4-6 wins) 1-4 - right on track
7. ARZ  (4-6 wins) 2-4 - right on track
8. SEA (5-7 wins) 3-3 - playing slightly better than expected
9. IND (5-7 wins) 3-3 - playing slightly better than expected
10. CLE (6-8 wins) 1-5 - playing worse than expected

JAX 1-5 replaces MIN in bottom 10
LAR 1-4 replaces SEA in bottom 10
NO 2-4 replaces IND in bottom 10
CIN 2-4 - 11th
NYJ 2-4 - 12th

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 5/16/2024 at 12:21 PM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

How many "lucky" coincidences can there be before you question lol.  I mean look, they even drew Jacksonville for their 1st of back to back travel games. If it was Jax 2nd game, they would have the advantage of being acclimated to the travel time adjustment. 

The luck of the schedule helped the Bears dominate the Jaguars. Jacksonville opted to leave late and the hurricane didn't make matters better. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

The luck of the schedule helped the Bears dominate the Jaguars. Jacksonville opted to leave late and the hurricane didn't make matters better. 

They technically only left a few hours later than they have in the past few years. They normally leave on Thursday and arrive on Friday for London games.

I don't think that was the issue. They are just a poorly coached team. Bigsby had been dominating and they still gave Etienne and Johnson carries over him. They had 8 penalties for 43 yards compared to the Bears had 2 for 10 and 1 of the penalties was on the opening kickoff.