Position Group rankings

[adam]

PFF has published most of their position group rankings, and I keep seeing multiple Bears on the lists, but in terms of team rankings the Bears are not as high.

So right now they have published 11 position groups, and you would hope the Bears would have at least one player per group in the top 32, which would just make them an average team, especially if all the rankings were in the 20s and 30s.

For the Bears, they have 16 players listed out of the 11 position groups. Since they didn't have any players listed for DL, that means they had 6 players that are ranked higher than any starter on another team w/o any players listed. They also had 5 position groups with multiple players with the WR Group having 3 in the top 30 (insane right?). Also, the Skill positions are stacked with 7 players listed which does not include Herbert, who was one of the most efficient RBs over the last few years.

Here is the rank of the Bears players by group, with the name of a player that was not ranked.

QB (19) - Bagent
RB (20) - Herbert
TE (11/19)
WR (12/22/29)
OG (16/26)
OT (31/32)

DL (N/A) - Dexter, Billings
Edge (22)
LB (9/11)
CB (5) - Stevenson, Gordon
S (12) - Brisker

Using my highly advanced Kungonkulator (patent pending), with the listed position groups, the Bears have the 13th best team in the NFL. When you add in Kicker and Punter as a net positive and Center as a net negative, the Bears still stay right around the high 12s (actually between 12th and 13th). So to me, that feels a lot more accurate than 19th-22nd as I have seen them elsewhere.

I think if you consider the Bears depth and starters not listed, with Herbert/Roschon, Sanborn, Gordon, Smith, Brisker, and Owens, the Bears probably have a top 15 bench as well. Even for Center, the Bears have Shelton or Bates, and the loser is a super sub. Kiran is the new Swing Tackle as a 3rd Round pick. Pickens, another 3rd Rounder is backup DL, then you have either Walker or Booker as backup Edge which would be solid on most teams.

I know there is a lot of hype around the team because of the Bears drafting Taylor, but I think the hype is justified based on these scientifically proven findings.

Note - For the Kungonkulator, I made an average team with a 16th ranked player per position group, where the Bears had a 2nd player listed, the average team would have a player ranked 48th, and if they had a 3rd player, it would be ranked 80th. Using the totals of those ranked positions, I divided back down to a range of 1-32, and the Bears were 13.6, but because this is an average, there were only 11 teams higher. 

[Stinger226]

As far as the Oline, having the top 30 players in both OG and OT puts us to al least an average to good OL. With a QB that has a quick release that puts us a top 12 OL. I totally expect the center to be top 20 rsting with the other lineman supporting him.

[adam]

11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

As far as the Oline, having the top 30 players in both OG and OT puts us to al least an average to good OL. With a QB that has a quick release that puts us a top 12 OL. I totally expect the center to be top 20 rsting with the other lineman supporting him.

Having 4 out of 2 position groups (they haven't done Center yet) in the top 32 actually puts the group easily in the top 12, probably 8th or 9th before the Center is added. Just say Shelton is the 24th best Center, the Bears would still have a top 10 line.

[adam]

Bates for sure and Amegajie should get there, are some of the best subs in the league. Bates has always been a spot starter level guy and Amegajie is a 3rd rounder. That is some quality depth there. If Bates wins the Center battle, then Shelton becomes a Super Sub. So if Nate Davis can get back to his Titans form, the line will be a plus.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Bates for sure and Amegajie should get there, are some of the best subs in the league. Bates has always been a spot starter level guy and Amegajie is a 3rd rounder. That is some quality depth there. If Bates wins the Center battle, then Shelton becomes a Super Sub. So if Nate Davis can get back to his Titans form, the line will be a plus.

Bates had always started at guard and his last year was moved to center. He had a seasoned vet in front of him but was being grooved to take over when the Bills started to shed salary. Poles thinks he can be productive there so can see if this is one of his hits or misses. Shelton is sat least average if that doesnt work out.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Bates had always started at guard and his last year was moved to center. He had a seasoned vet in front of him but was being grooved to take over when the Bills started to shed salary. Poles thinks he can be productive there so can see if this is one of his hits or misses. Shelton is sat least average if that doesnt work out.

he played center in 2022 too

[Stinger226]

You may be right, but all I could find was info like this. I thought they moved him to OC in 23 to learn the center position.( On statmuse they said he played OC the whole year.) You are correct

Games		Off.		Def.		ST
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Num	Pct	Num	Pct	Num	Pct
2019	22	BUF	G	71	8	0	78	15%	0	0%	27	14%
2020	23	BUF	G	71	16	0	82	8%	0	0%	93	21%
2021	24	BUF	G	71	17	4	294	25%	0	0%	83	19%
2022	25	BUF	RG	71	15	15	947	94%	0	0%	62	16%
2023	26	BUF	G	71	17	0	35	3%	0	0%	79	18%
Career							1436		0		344

 

[adam]

If Dexter takes a Year 2 jump and Booker is league average, the line will be solid with Billings, Walker, and Sweat. Those are the top 5 guys and then probably Pickens as the top 6.

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, adam said:

If Dexter takes a Year 2 jump and Booker is league average, the line will be solid with Billings, Walker, and Sweat. Those are the top 5 guys and then probably Pickens as the top 6.

In time of course the goal is to have a dominant D line - without one it is hard to reliably win superbowls. Im sure no one here disagrees with that.

If Booker ascends into a dominant player, and assuming Dexter makes his 2nd year jump, we will have that. But it will probably be a while until Booker is really dominant, and I can see us bringing in someone to be like Keenan Allen to Booker's Odunze - someone to make it happen at a high level until the younger player is ready to challenge, not just as a starter, but as an impact player.

I still feel like there is another DE coming. And if we have that AND Booker in the rotation, then we will be a lot closer to that top 5 defense.

[Stinger226]

On 6/11/2024 at 12:30 PM, BearFan PHX said:

In time of course the goal is to have a dominant D line - without one it is hard to reliably win superbowls. Im sure no one here disagrees with that.

If Booker ascends into a dominant player, and assuming Dexter makes his 2nd year jump, we will have that. But it will probably be a while until Booker is really dominant, and I can see us bringing in someone to be like Keenan Allen to Booker's Odunze - someone to make it happen at a high level until the younger player is ready to challenge, not just as a starter, but as an impact player.

I still feel like there is another DE coming. And if we have that AND Booker in the rotation, then we will be a lot closer to that top 5 defense.

Who is out there that makes us a dominate line? Carl Lawson? Yannick ? Ogbah ? Frank Clark? I dont think any of those are special. I dont think we are tradig assets for a disillusion star that wants a big paycheck. I dont think this year is the year we add another high paid player. 

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2024/6/12/24176975/a-scouts-take-on-the-2024-chicago-bears-defensive-ends-montez-sweat-jacob-martin-demarcus-walker

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Who is out there that makes us a dominate line? Carl Lawson? Yannick ? Ogbah ? Frank Clark? I dont think any of those are special. I dont think we are tradig assets for a disillusion star that wants a big paycheck. I dont think this year is the year we add another high paid player. 

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2024/6/12/24176975/a-scouts-take-on-the-2024-chicago-bears-defensive-ends-montez-sweat-jacob-martin-demarcus-walker

just like Sweat, there are players who are not currently free agents who might be available in a trade without being openly on some list of available players?

For example, the Bengals have a real stud in Trey Hendrickson (17.5 sacks last year) who is disgruntled, wants an extension and has requested a trade. That's one example. And we will be seeing him up close in joint practices soon with the Bengals, and the same for the Bengals seeing Herbert etc.

But there may be others that none of us are aware of, just like we all thought it was Chase Young we were looking at, and suddenly it was the DE on the other side that got traded.

I am just saying that there is a gaping hole at DE2, and Booker right now may not be enough to fill it?

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

just like Sweat, there are players who are not currently free agents who might be available in a trade without being openly on some list of available players?

For example, the Bengals have a real stud in Trey Hendrickson (17.5 sacks last year) who is disgruntled, wants an extension and has requested a trade. That's one example. And we will be seeing him up close in joint practices soon with the Bengals, and the same for the Bengals seeing Herbert etc.

But there may be others that none of us are aware of, just like we all thought it was Chase Young we were looking at, and suddenly it was the DE on the other side that got traded.

I am just saying that there is a gaping hole at DE2, and Booker right now may not be enough to fill it?

As much as a star player would be nice, I dont think Poles is going to add a big contract to the team. He can work numbers to make it happen but Troy will want Sweat money if not more. I think he will run with the options on the team. If he adds someone (Yannick) that will  be on a team friendly deal. If Allen has a good year ,that wont be cheap bringing him back. If he keeps Jenkins that wont be on the cheap. As he builds this team , he keeps an eye on the cap. I thnk he may want to extent DJ Moore before he spends bigt money to fill a weak spot. He has made several comments on not being able to fill all his needs in this season.

[BearFan PHX]

I think Poles has shown that hes willing to spend the money for the right players. Is Hendickson the right player? I dunno. But I think Poles knows we need more there, and is still going to make some sort of move. Maybe at the trade deadline if not now.

[Mongo3451]

12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think Poles has shown that hes willing to spend the money for the right players. Is Hendickson the right player? I dunno. But I think Poles knows we need more there, and is still going to make some sort of move. Maybe at the trade deadline if not now.

I'm following that line; I think if Poles sees that if Caleb can play and that we are also in contention for a playoff spot, he will definitely spend on a good player.  That good player would definitely have to be of the OL DL category to make sense.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm following that line; I think if Poles sees that if Caleb can play and that we are also in contention for a playoff spot, he will definitely spend on a good player.  That good player would definitely have to be of the OL DL category to make sense.

I think IF he has sights of going to the SB, then he may add to make that run but i think he will let new players fail first before he takes that step. His mind already has this team making the playoffs. i would be disappointed if he didnt think that way.

[Mongo3451]

53 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think IF he has sights of going to the SB, then he may add to make that run but i think he will let new players fail first before he takes that step. His mind already has this team making the playoffs. i would be disappointed if he didnt think that way.

With only seven teams making the playoffs, that's definitely on the wish list.  It's not going to be an easy road, especially when we have two teams ahead of us in our own conference.  Are we better than any of the following:  Detroit, Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Dallas?  Then, someone automatically gets in from the NFC South, leaving one spot open.  A lot of things have to go right for us.  We could possibly have a ten and seven record and not make a wildcard.  

In the end, I don't believe it would take a SB run for him to make another Sweat type of trade.  Heck, I would do it just because it was and will be a no brainer.  Taking advantage of the market is what the smart teams do.  Poles has put is in position to do so.  Until our QB begins elevating the team, the money needs to follow the ones that do.  Once the QB is established, those deals are off the table.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm following that line; I think if Poles sees that if Caleb can play and that we are also in contention for a playoff spot, he will definitely spend on a good player.  That good player would definitely have to be of the OL DL category to make sense.

I agree that any more major acquisitions would be in the trenches. We are stocked everywhere else.

I think it could come in two ways:

1) an excellent player who fits the long term plan on a 4 year deal

2) an aging vet who can fill in until Booker ascends, and/or we draft another DE - kind of like Keenan Allen for the WRs until Odunze is fully ready.

For #1, it would have to be a top notch player. Not sure who would be available to fit that, but Poles has surprised us before. This could happen at the trade deadline, if as you say, we are on our way to the playoffs, having won enough games in September and October.

For #2, there are lots of options still around. We could well pick one up cheap before the season starts if Poles thinks they are better than Dom Rob.

[Stinger226]

 

[adam]

17 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

 

Davis only played meaningful snaps in 9 out of 17 games. He had zero snaps in 6 games, and 10 and 13 in the other two. 

Interestingly enough, Davis played 100% of the offensive snaps in the 3 meltdown games (Denver, Detroit, and Cleveland).

Wright, Jones, Jenkins, Patrick, and Whitehair all had more snaps than Davis. He was 6th on the OL in snap count ahead of Borom.

[Mongo3451]

Davis was well below average last year due to lack of conditioning, knowledge of offense, injury and lack of continuity.  His value should increase dramatically this year.  

The OL, as a whole, should be better at each position.  Jenkins is playing for a contract.  Let's see what his body looks like in TC.  Wright in year two.  Jones in year three.  Center is the weak spot again...

[adam]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Davis was well below average last year due to lack of conditioning, knowledge of offense, injury and lack of continuity.  His value should increase dramatically this year.  

The OL, as a whole, should be better at each position.  Jenkins is playing for a contract.  Let's see what his body looks like in TC.  Wright in year two.  Jones in year three.  Center is the weak spot again...

I am just wondering if Bates was really brought in as an insurance policy for Davis, and I don't know what Shelton is getting crapped on.

Shelton started every game for the Rams at Center last year, had the 2nd most snaps for the Rams, and was the 16th rated Center according to PFF.  In comparison, Patrick was 27th.  Shelton's PFF Grade was comparable to SF's Brendel, DAL's Biadasz, and CIN's Ted Karras.  John Michael Schmitz, the Center most wanted from the 2023 draft, was the worst in the NFL last year.

[BearFan PHX]

47 minutes ago, adam said:

I am just wondering if Bates was really brought in as an insurance policy for Davis, and I don't know what Shelton is getting crapped on.

Shelton started every game for the Rams at Center last year, had the 2nd most snaps for the Rams, and was the 16th rated Center according to PFF.  In comparison, Patrick was 27th.  Shelton's PFF Grade was comparable to SF's Brendel, DAL's Biadasz, and CIN's Ted Karras.  John Michael Schmitz, the Center most wanted from the 2023 draft, was the worst in the NFL last year.

totally agree.

I think Bates was brought in to play center OR to replace Davis OR Jenkins if they dont show up for whatever reason, laziness, or injury or even if he just beats them out.

I do think that PFF grades, especially on lineman, are atrocious and untrustworthy, but I also think your point is correct even without the PFF portion.

[adam]

46 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

totally agree.

I think Bates was brought in to play center OR to replace Davis OR Jenkins if they dont show up for whatever reason, laziness, or injury or even if he just beats them out.

I do think that PFF grades, especially on lineman, are atrocious and untrustworthy, but I also think your point is correct even without the PFF portion.

Yeah, I don't like to use them but they are normally in the ballpark, meaning Shelton was definitely a mid-tier Center. However, that is a huge upgrade from Patrick. 

 

[Stinger226]

He acquired Bates before he signed Shelton and gave up something. I think he brought him in to be the starter but him and Shelton are flexable for both OG and OC so it gives him depth and options. PFF is just a measure to compare players, it has some merit but they do get things wrong. Both are an upgrade over last year, I suspect they are average players but that is better than bad players. One may pop , not everyone can be first round picks. Centers usually struggle their first year and are not a good idea with roo0kie QBs. So if our centers play falls to between 12th to 18th, we will have a good line this year. 

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Davis was well below average last year due to lack of conditioning, knowledge of offense, injury and lack of continuity.  His value should increase dramatically this year.  

The OL, as a whole, should be better at each position.  Jenkins is playing for a contract.  Let's see what his body looks like in TC.  Wright in year two.  Jones in year three.  Center is the weak spot again...

I always think you throw out their best and worse years and that's who they are which means he should be top 15 at his position. He's going to be fine.