Eberflus 2024

[BearFan PHX]

I think I have been the most vocal critic of Matt Eberflus on this board? Probably so.

And I have some observations to make about the last month or two.

My two main criticisms of him have been that he has made stupid strategic game decisions, and that he seemed to lack an alpha leadership quality, at least where I was able to see him on TV, in interviews etc.

I can't say much about the first one, since we aren't playing games, but I'm hopeful that any of that gets put in check by more assertive coordinators keeping him from going too safe. A better roster should also make him more comfortable to take risks. And perhaps coordinators will dial him back from going too far the other way too. I'm not that concerned about it, and if I see more of it in games, then Ill get back to it then. Hopefully he has learned too.

But the other part, his body language, is why I'm writing this.

I'm looking forward to seeing him on hard knocks and in press conferences etc this year. But I did already see him greeting new players when they reported, and in the draft room where he still seemed small to me. He felt like the uncomfortable kid at the dance in the draft room. I like his new look, but he seemed almost shy or something somehow.

But I said in an earlier post, that maybe he just isn't that comfortable in settings where his authoritative role isnt that defined, and where he isnt sure of what to do in every step like he is on the practice field.

So all this setup and background to say, I am seeing a serious difference in him in practice footage and especially in the press conference today. He seemed more dialed in, less goofy than last year, kind of angry in a good way. He was leaning forward toward the press, not shifting his weight, like he was in a fight for his life, and on the cusp of losing, but then some friends showed up and had his back. Newly confident, but still taking it very seriously.

I'm guessing that he loved being a head coach the last couple years, almost like it was fun, or he was a tourist, but this year he now knows it can all go away forever in just one more bad season. So he seems dialed in. And he also seems like in this fight, he knows he has a roster now and he might well be able to kick this thing in the ass and take it all the way to a Super Bowl in the next few years. He feels intense and concerned. Finally.

It's really great to see. If it continues, and the coaching mistakes go away, then Poles did yet another great job seeing past the obvious. To my eye, this would be as crazy as when they drafted Dexter to be a 3T instead of a NT, with the big doughy slow get off. But Poles saw whet he could become. And then Dexter shows up ripped and fast this year. Maybe that's Eberflus too now.

We may someday need a bronze statue of Ryan Poles outside Soldier Field.

So from his biggest critic here, I see something changing in Eberflus, and it's great to see.

[Stinger226]

My biggest encouragement for Flus is Poles believes in him. I trust Poles to get it right. A lot of mistakes last year on the offense, I blame to Flus allowing Getsy to control the situation. Another problem was breakdown by selected players at critical times. center was simply terrible and injury breakdowns of the OL. Bad play calling created a mediorcre offence. As much as as I loved Justin, his bad decisions added to it. 

If you're making soup and one turns out better than the other its because of better ingrediants. We have better ingrediants.

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

My biggest encouragement for Flus is Poles believes in him. I trust Poles to get it right. A lot of mistakes last year on the offense, I blame to Flus allowing Getsy to control the situation. Another problem was breakdown by selected players at critical times. center was simply terrible and injury breakdowns of the OL. Bad play calling created a mediorcre offence. As much as as I loved Justin, his bad decisions added to it. 

If you're making soup and one turns out better than the other its because of better ingrediants. We have better ingrediants.

all good stuff. Im just giving credit where it is due that Eberflus looks more dialed in this year finally. Im sure youre right that it is because of many reasons including roster confidence, but he has also grown personally I believe.

[adam]

19 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think I have been the most vocal critic of Matt Eberflus on this board? Probably so.

And I have some observations to make about the last month or two.

My two main criticisms of him have been that he has made stupid strategic game decisions, and that he seemed to lack an alpha leadership quality, at least where I was able to see him on TV, in interviews etc.

I can't say much about the first one, since we aren't playing games, but I'm hopeful that any of that gets put in check by more assertive coordinators keeping him from going too safe. A better roster should also make him more comfortable to take risks. And perhaps coordinators will dial him back from going too far the other way too. I'm not that concerned about it, and if I see more of it in games, then Ill get back to it then. Hopefully he has learned too.

But the other part, his body language, is why I'm writing this.

I'm looking forward to seeing him on hard knocks and in press conferences etc this year. But I did already see him greeting new players when they reported, and in the draft room where he still seemed small to me. He felt like the uncomfortable kid at the dance in the draft room. I like his new look, but he seemed almost shy or something somehow.

But I said in an earlier post, that maybe he just isn't that comfortable in settings where his authoritative role isnt that defined, and where he isnt sure of what to do in every step like he is on the practice field.

So all this setup and background to say, I am seeing a serious difference in him in practice footage and especially in the press conference today. He seemed more dialed in, less goofy than last year, kind of angry in a good way. He was leaning forward toward the press, not shifting his weight, like he was in a fight for his life, and on the cusp of losing, but then some friends showed up and had his back. Newly confident, but still taking it very seriously.

I'm guessing that he loved being a head coach the last couple years, almost like it was fun, or he was a tourist, but this year he now knows it can all go away forever in just one more bad season. So he seems dialed in. And he also seems like in this fight, he knows he has a roster now and he might well be able to kick this thing in the ass and take it all the way to a Super Bowl in the next few years. He feels intense and concerned. Finally.

It's really great to see. If it continues, and the coaching mistakes go away, then Poles did yet another great job seeing past the obvious. To my eye, this would be as crazy as when they drafted Dexter to be a 3T instead of a NT, with the big doughy slow get off. But Poles saw whet he could become. And then Dexter shows up ripped and fast this year. Maybe that's Eberflus too now.

We may someday need a bronze statue of Ryan Poles outside Soldier Field.

So from his biggest critic here, I see something changing in Eberflus, and it's great to see.

Nowadays it is so hard to determine if "coaching matters". These guys are professionals, can the Head Coach, who is just overseeing the entire operation, actually making a huge impact? I don't think so. 20 years ago, for sure. Now, not so much. 

Hard Knocks is going to be really telling. If he is boring as hell and his speeches sound dumb, then you will have your answer.

[AZ54]

Pressure does funny things to people.  It is especially hard to take over an organization and turn it around.  It's even more awkward when you have to deal with people who you know are not up to the task.  Sure Flus hired Getsy and Williams but we'll never know how far down the list they were amng the coaches he wanted.  We do know it took quite a bit of time to assemble that staff.  He's been around the league a long time too so he knows a lot of coaches. 

Of course he fired both so he saw it, knew it.  I'm pretty sure he knew it with Getsy in year 1 when he forced him to revise the offense and they came out against NE and won the game with Fields running.   It was easier to fire Williams and Flus to take over that role but there were no good options for that on offense.  

All that responsibility still lands on his shoulders and Flus knew Poles could have easily justified firing him.  Under that pressure is where you see people sometimes start doing things they otherwise wouldn't do to try and get a spark and win a game.   Remember Matt Nagy and his "cute" plays that got out of hand.  In the end I think it was the defensive turnaround that saved Flus.  To be fair, the offense did improve as well in the 2nd half once Flus had better command of the D.  

You get a huge boost in confidence when your boss tells you I understand it wasn't you and you are building this thing in the right direction.  We'll see how it plays out but roster talent and coaching talent are no longer issues he has to work around.  That frees up his mind to focus more on the head coaching job.   He still has a young QB and after the Fields/Getsy experience I expect he'll make sure to be around Caleb/Waldron early on to make sure things are going in the right direction.  On the defensive side he kept Jon Hoke to help as defensive passing game coordinator and Washington seems better able to handle the Dline and run defense setup.  He kept Hightower for continuity on special teams. 

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Nowadays it is so hard to determine if "coaching matters". These guys are professionals, can the Head Coach, who is just overseeing the entire operation, actually making a huge impact? I don't think so. 20 years ago, for sure. Now, not so much. 

Hard Knocks is going to be really telling. If he is boring as hell and his speeches sound dumb, then you will have your answer.

If this were true why do so many coaches get fired?  Why do teams pay more for a guy like Mike Shanahan, Andy Reid (who once got fired too), Sean McVay, Belichik?   By the way Andy Reid was the coach who couldn't win the big game for a very, very long time and for years was the coach who wouldn't run the ball.   There is clearly something there but like everything else there is a distribution to the really good coaches at the top, the middle ground, and then those who just shouldn't be in that role (i.e. Matt Nagy).  

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Nowadays it is so hard to determine if "coaching matters". These guys are professionals, can the Head Coach, who is just overseeing the entire operation, actually making a huge impact? I don't think so. 20 years ago, for sure. Now, not so much. 

Hard Knocks is going to be really telling. If he is boring as hell and his speeches sound dumb, then you will have your answer.

in the middle, I agree with you. But in the margins, a bad coach can mess you up. Eberflus lost us a few games with just the decisions he made, being too safe too early on defense with big leads, and occasionally being too aggressive or tricky on 4th down. But I think by now Eberflus is a middle coach, not saying he will continue to screw us like he did at all.

To me the question is what about those few coaches that give you an active edge is winning? When you look at those EPA charts from the other day for example, KC doesnt leap out last year at all. They were good but their output wasnt stunning. But just like there is a difference between getting guys on base, and getting them home, so does a great coach put the production you do have into the best moments to win games, especially big games.

I've heard coaches say that the first 3 quarters of the game just set the stage for the real game in the 4th quarter. That they have been calling plays or formations to read what the opponent will do that day in certain situations, and havent yet run their most successful variants off of that, saving them for the 4th quarter when they matter.

That implies that coaching, or at least good coordinator playcalling is at work, and matters.

So yeah, most coaches around the league are professionals, but not geniuses. I guess i put Eberflus into that category. So he wont harm us, but will he give us an active edge in winning? I dont think so in the same way I feel like Waldron will.

Defensive playcalling is also a lot less complicated than offensive playcalling. So if youre gonna have a mad genius head coach, they probably will be offensive minded. Belichick was a defensive coordinator, but i think he was also plenty offensive minded.

Also, if youre gonna lose coordinators, better to have offensive continuity too.

But we are here and I am glad to see Eberflus growing. I think there is enough on this staff to put together good football gameplans and strategies, but I wonder if Eberflus has that thing?

And to be fair its not like you can go out and get a 50 year old Andy Reed either. So Eberflus may be a good choice out of the options there are out there. (cough Harbaugh lol)

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Pressure does funny things to people.  It is especially hard to take over an organization and turn it around.  It's even more awkward when you have to deal with people who you know are not up to the task.  Sure Flus hired Getsy and Williams but we'll never know how far down the list they were amng the coaches he wanted.  We do know it took quite a bit of time to assemble that staff.  He's been around the league a long time too so he knows a lot of coaches. 

Of course he fired both so he saw it, knew it.  I'm pretty sure he knew it with Getsy in year 1 when he forced him to revise the offense and they came out against NE and won the game with Fields running.   It was easier to fire Williams and Flus to take over that role but there were no good options for that on offense.

For sure. Thats why I was saying earlier that part of his transformation might be the roster he has fighting for him now, and you're right that goes to his staff too.

Being the captain of a ghost ship while you cut or trade all your old players, and before the new crew is assembled is a tough task for sure. You stand there, and go through it, but you know you suck. That's hard. Then when they tell you that they know it wasnt your fault, but heres finally a good group of players and you pretty much have to do something pretty good with them right now or those crap seasons are gonna count as a pattern can wake you up pretty fast.

You want your dream? Fine here it is. And you basically get one chance to make it work. You have to be mentally tough and fight, even as you are confident and think there is a good chance youre gonna make it work and even win coach of the year!

What a funny business.
 

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

All that responsibility still lands on his shoulders and Flus knew Poles could have easily justified firing him.  Under that pressure is where you see people sometimes start doing things they otherwise wouldn't do to try and get a spark and win a game.   Remember Matt Nagy and his "cute" plays that got out of hand.  In the end I think it was the defensive turnaround that saved Flus.  To be fair, the offense did improve as well in the 2nd half once Flus had better command of the D. 

Youre totally right. When your team sucks, you take risks, and that makes you look bad. Winning, and losing, are contagious and affect every part of the team.

Adding Sweat sure did get us past some threshold were everything started to get better.

 

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

You get a huge boost in confidence when your boss tells you I understand it wasn't you and you are building this thing in the right direction.  We'll see how it plays out but roster talent and coaching talent are no longer issues he has to work around.  That frees up his mind to focus more on the head coaching job.   He still has a young QB and after the Fields/Getsy experience I expect he'll make sure to be around Caleb/Waldron early on to make sure things are going in the right direction.  On the defensive side he kept Jon Hoke to help as defensive passing game coordinator and Washington seems better able to handle the Dline and run defense setup.  He kept Hightower for continuity on special teams. 

I agree with almost all of this, except the first sentence. I doubt they told him the past few seasons werent his "fault" - I can imagine them saying "we know its tough but you have to find a way" and that does somewhat acknowledge the situation. But if the team under performs this year, everyone knows that suddenly the past two years will be added to the data to justify a pattern.

Kind of like how Justin's first two years were also excused, and had he been great last year, everyone would have said "yeah those first two years werent his fault" but since he didnt, then it became like a consistent three year narrative. Not saying thats fair, just how people think.

I think Flus knows he could be coach of the year this year, or end up fired at the end of the season. Either are possible, and so he's not screwing around anymore being goofy and happy go lucky. He looks hungry, and dialed in. And that's great.

Personally i think it will be hard to really fail that badly this year, so Flus is more likely a COY than fired. I see us winning 9 to 11 games, and making the playoffs. From there Im not sure. This team will be a lot more gelled and experienced in December. The talent ont he roster is undeniable now, but the chemistry, and identity have to be forged.

If I had to bet, Id take the upside, and thats gonna bring Eberflus along for the ride. Hopefully he is leading, and not just riding the wave.

[Stinger226]

There are certain decisions that can make a coach look good or bad. Flus was never a head coach before and is in a learning process. Every coach has bad choices. The difference is a winning team (those bad choices are blown off), on losing teams all are magnified. One thing I think what makes a good coach is to keep the team together and focused in the face of adversity. Flus has appeared to keep everyone focused and getting better. We saw clearly Nagy lose his team and he was a coach of the year in 2018. Lots of variables that go into a team winning. Roster developement, roster additions and Flus was clearly at a disadvantage his first two years. 

This year will be the measure of what kind of coach he is by how well they do. Can he take a roster of more talent and win. We have a front row seat to that movie.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

There are certain decisions that can make a coach look good or bad. Flus was never a head coach before and is in a learning process.

you dont need to be a head coach to knpw that going into a -prevent defense too early can cost you a game. We all know this.

We also know that taking the go ahead field goal late int he game is the right move rather than going for it on 4th down, and that giving the ball to the TE for a sneak is being too cute.

These were errors, and you dont need to be a head coach int he NFL before you can learn this.

But the past is the past, and we will see how things go this year and moving forward. Im not juding him now by those past mistakes, but neither do i think it's part of learning. They were just wrong, but its Ok to move on.

[Stinger226]

Didnt the Detroit head coach make a couple blunders in the playoff game that cost them going to the championship game? His was coach of the year, the year before and no body was calling him out for it. Because he has a winning team. Good coachs screw up too.

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Didnt the Detroit head coach make a couple blunders in the playoff game that cost them going to the championship game? His was coach of the year, the year before and no body was calling him out for it. Because he has a winning team. Good coachs screw up too.

yeah, Im just saying that he screwed up, and not to make excuses for it, not that he is doomed in the future because of it. Whatever happens this year will determine what i think of the guy, and that's all anyone ever has anyway.

[AZ54]

On 7/20/2024 at 2:22 PM, BearFan PHX said:

I agree with almost all of this, except the first sentence. I doubt they told him the past few seasons werent his "fault" - I can imagine them saying "we know its tough but you have to find a way" and that does somewhat acknowledge the situation. But if the team under performs this year, everyone knows that suddenly the past two years will be added to the data to justify a pattern.

 

For sure, but you are also looking for positive signs within the culture that things are moving forward.  

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

For sure, but you are also looking for positive signs within the culture that things are moving forward.  

absolutely. Eberflus has his entire narrative in his own hands this season. If they do well, he could be looking at coach of the year. and if they falter, he could lose his job. Its SO unfair, because it really hinges on the players, but I expect Eberflus will come out of all of this looking very good.

I'm just saying if he does poorly this year (which i dont expect) then suddenly the past two years will look like a pattern, but if the team does well (which I DO expect) or VERY well (which would be awesome) then the past two years will be forgotten immediately, and he will be heralded as a league leading success.

But as to what I think is most likely, it's all positive.

I guess another way to say what Im saying is that if they do well, the past two years will evaporate from our collective memory.

[BearFan PHX]

Just watched Hard Knocks episode 1 - theres lots to say, but i just want to say this:

Eberflus looks great. Everything i was worried about from last year i no longer am. He seems dialed in, and right where he should be. Awesome.

[Mongo3451]

I like that Flus is listening to Saban.  I really liked his advice. It was clear that Flus got the message.