Projecting the 53-man

[adam]

So after the 2nd preseason game, it looks like the 53-man roster is going to come down to 5-6 battles at the bottom of the roster depending on how the team views certain positions and ST value.

This is my thought so far on the locks:

Offense
QB (2) - Williams, Bagent
RB (4) - Swift, Herbert, Johnson, Homer
WR (5) - Moore, Allen, Odunze, Scott, Jones Jr. 
TE (3) - Kmet, Everett, Lewis
OL (9) - Jones, Jenkins, Wright, Bates, Shelton, Davis, Pryor, Amegadjie, Carter

Defense
DL (7) - Sweat, Billings, Dexter, Walker, Pickens, Booker, Hardy
LB (4) - Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell
CB (6) - Johnson, Gordon, Stevenson, Smith, Blackwell, Stroman
S (4) - Byard, Brisker, Owens, Hicks

ST (3) - Santos, Taylor, Scales
 

To me it looks like there are 6 remaining slots: 1x RB, 1x WR, 2x DL, 1x LB, 1x S

Blasingame has the lead for the 5th RB spot, but Wheeler has an outside shot. Waldron did not have a FB in Seattle as far as I could tell. They used a TE as sort of a hybrid role. For WR, I think Johnson has the edge at WR6, which could make it interesting with how they handle Velus. If they have Velus in more of a RB/ST role, then they may go with 6 other guys at WR, meaning someone like Pettis or Carter would also make it. If the Bears decide to go with a 4th TE instead of a 5th RB because Kmet, Everett, and Lewis have limited ST value, then guys like Sweeney, Carlson, and Bates are in play to sneak in at the bottom of the roster. On the O-Line, Borom looks like the odd man out which would save the Bears on some cap space. 

For defense, the last two DLine spots are probably Robinson and Cowart. However, since Walker is sort of a hybrid DE/DT, they may get away with only going with 8, which would then open up a slot for that 4th TE or that extra WR.  It looks like they have one spot left at LB, it will come down to Baskerville and Ogbongbemiga. Lastly, if they go with 5 safeties, then Colbert is probably the lead there. 

So the last 6 spots will be filled by 6 guys from this group: Blasingame, Wheeler, Johnson, Pettis, Carter, Sweeney, Carlson, Bates, Borom, Robinson, Cowart, Baskerville, Ogbongbemiga, and Colbert. 

Surprise cut/trade candidates: Herbert (47.5 PFF Grade), Borom (69.9 PFF), and Blasingame (66.4 PFF). 

[Stinger226]

I dont think Kiwan will be readt to play so that may keep Borom here for a bit. Also I think they keep 8 DL. The TEs are young so I think they try to get a few on the practice squad like Carlson and Bates. Waldron likes to use TEs. Gill Murray has played at OT and OG, he may slide in their at some point, he has played well.

[adam]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I dont think Kiwan will be readt to play so that may keep Borom here for a bit. Also I think they keep 8 DL. The TEs are young so I think they try to get a few on the practice squad like Carlson and Bates. Waldron likes to use TEs. Gill Murray has played at OT and OG, he may slide in their at some point, he has played well.

Waldron had 3x TEs in Seattle (Fant, Dissly, Parkinson). I wonder if they model the offensive roster off of what Waldron did in SEA, since it is his offense? 

This is the offensive roster breakdown for opening day 2023 for Seattle:

2x QB
4x RB
6x WR
3x TE
9x OL

So they only went with 24 offensive players (instead of 25). RB would be interesting if they only kept 4 (Swift, Herbert, Johnson, and Homer?).
 

[Stinger226]

19 hours ago, adam said:

Waldron had 3x TEs in Seattle (Fant, Dissly, Parkinson). I wonder if they model the offensive roster off of what Waldron did in SEA, since it is his offense? 

This is the offensive roster breakdown for opening day 2023 for Seattle:

2x QB
4x RB
6x WR
3x TE
9x OL

So they only went with 24 offensive players (instead of 25). RB would be interesting if they only kept 4 (Swift, Herbert, Johnson, and Homer?).
 

I think the 4th RB will be V Jones instead of Homer. That may mean no more FB with the possiblity of a 4th TE. They can line him up in the backful on blocking plays.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think the 4th RB will be V Jones instead of Homer. That may mean no more FB with the possiblity of a 4th TE. They can line him up in the backful on blocking plays.

I would rather have Wheeler to be honest. Compare Wheeler and Velus and tell me one thing Velus does better?

The 3 guys that are most likely on the bubble are:

Borom - $3.1M in cap savings if cut (83K in dead money)
Homer - $1.8M in cap savings if cut (225K in dead money)
Jones Jr - 900K in cap savings if cut (555K in dead money)

That would free up $5.8M with only 860K in dead money and 3 roster spots for guys like Pryor, Wheeler, and a WR or TE. 

If they cut Davis, they would have an extra $1.397 against the cap compared to his current cap number. However, if they cut the other 3 with him, they would still have $4.4M extra in cap space and filling the spots with more than likely league minimum guys who would not effect the cap.
 

[CrackerDog]

If Baskerville pulls off another big play or two he’ll seal his spot on the team.  

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, adam said:

I would rather have Wheeler to be honest. Compare Wheeler and Velus and tell me one thing Velus does better?

The 3 guys that are most likely on the bubble are:

Borom - $3.1M in cap savings if cut (83K in dead money)
Homer - $1.8M in cap savings if cut (225K in dead money)
Jones Jr - 900K in cap savings if cut (555K in dead money)

That would free up $5.8M with only 860K in dead money and 3 roster spots for guys like Pryor, Wheeler, and a WR or TE. 

If they cut Davis, they would have an extra $1.397 against the cap compared to his current cap number. However, if they cut the other 3 with him, they would still have $4.4M extra in cap space and filling the spots with more than likely league minimum guys who would not effect the cap.
 

I haven’t seen enough of Wheeler to decide he’s better.   He looked good against 3rd and 4th string.  I have seen enough to say this should be a competition among the two.  There are two more weeks for coaches to let it play out. 

[Mongo3451]

20 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I haven’t seen enough of Wheeler to decide he’s better.   He looked good against 3rd and 4th string.  I have seen enough to say this should be a competition among the two.  There are two more weeks for coaches to let it play out. 

Wheeler can scoot.  Has hands like a rattle snake though...

[ChileBear]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Wheeler can scoot.  Has hands like a rattle snake though...

ESPN's Carmen and Jurko today they were certain that the Velus vs Wheeler story was made up by Hard Knox and Wheeler doesn't have a shot over Velus.

 

[Mongo3451]

Any DB that gets cut from us is likely to land a job elsewhere.  Very deep group when you have starter quality backups. 

Barring injury, Dante Pettis makes the team.  Makes me happy, because I've always liked him.  He's days better than Scott and plays faster.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

11 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Any DB that gets cut from us is likely to land a job elsewhere.  Very deep group when you have starter quality backups. 

Barring injury, Dante Pettis makes the team.  Makes me happy, because I've always liked him.  He's days better than Scott and plays faster.

It is going to be a tough cut. I hope they don't go with emotions when this time comes.  A little upstairs help and we can stash some of these guys on the PS.

[Pixote]

OK, I am reaching.....

A team eyeing one of our projected DB/LB cuts has a poor waiver position and knows they will not be able to pick him up because another team will grab him. However, they are in the same position as us and have to waive a quality Edge or OL player. Poles dials them up and works out a trade of players, allowing both teams to get better without the players hitting the waiver wire.

LOL

I have way too much time on my hands.

 

[CrackerDog]

22 minutes ago, Pixote said:

OK, I am reaching.....

A team eyeing one of our projected DB/LB cuts has a poor waiver position and knows they will not be able to pick him up because another team will grab him. However, they are in the same position as us and have to waive a quality Edge or OL player. Poles dials them up and works out a trade of players, allowing both teams to get better without the players hitting the waiver wire.

LOL

I have way too much time on my hands.

 

Why not?  In fact I think it’s a great idea.  

[adam]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Any DB that gets cut from us is likely to land a job elsewhere.  Very deep group when you have starter quality backups. 

Barring injury, Dante Pettis makes the team.  Makes me happy, because I've always liked him.  He's days better than Scott and plays faster.

Pettis is taller than I always imagine him. He ran some really nice routes today. I would not mind if he makes the team.

[BearFan PHX]

I like Pettis over Velus.
Pettis is very fast, but not quite as fast as VJJ.
VJJ is 6' Pettis is 6' 1"

Pettis plays football LOL

[Mongo3451]

Fun fact.  His dad is Gary Pettis...

[Stinger226]

Wheeler has some moments but how does his practice look. I seen a video where Chad Morton his RB coach was riding him for mistakes. I think if they put him on the practice squad he hasnt shown enough to be stolen. We know the first 3 RBs, V Jones will be used as a gadet player plus he plays special teams, I think he makes it. 

With the amount of plays the FB gets, i think he may be a cut. We save 1.6 mil with no dead money if we cut him. Roschon is a good pass blocker, maybe they use him in those spots for the FB.

Pettis has decent size and speed and makes the final WR spot.

The OL has played okay in the preseason even with backups filling in. CW has great pocket awareness and that helps the OL, plus his quick release. It will land in the middle of the pack as for ranking but that's much better than last year. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Wheeler has some moments but how does his practice look. I seen a video where Chad Morton his RB coach was riding him for mistakes. I think if they put him on the practice squad he hasnt shown enough to be stolen. We know the first 3 RBs, V Jones will be used as a gadet player plus he plays special teams, I think he makes it. 

With the amount of plays the FB gets, i think he may be a cut. We save 1.6 mil with no dead money if we cut him. Roschon is a good pass blocker, maybe they use him in those spots for the FB.

Pettis has decent size and speed and makes the final WR spot.

The OL has played okay in the preseason even with backups filling in. CW has great pocket awareness and that helps the OL, plus his quick release. It will land in the middle of the pack as for ranking but that's much better than last year. 

Wheeler is a better runner than Homer, but worse pass catcher. Both play ST about the same. Wheeler has more juice. Homer looks tired when he runs the ball. At that part of the roster it is maximizing what you need them for. With Swift as the primary 3rd Down back and Roschon able to catch passes, I would go with Wheeler over Homer and Pettis over Velus.

[AZ54]

19 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I like Pettis over Velus.
Pettis is very fast, but not quite as fast as VJJ.
VJJ is 6' Pettis is 6' 1"

Pettis plays football LOL

...and yet I remember Pettis dropping some potential game winning passes in recent years. None of that means I choose Velus over Pettis either.  I just don't see a difference on drops.  Pettis is better at catching punts.   

[BearFan PHX]

44 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

...and yet I remember Pettis dropping some potential game winning passes in recent years. None of that means I choose Velus over Pettis either.  I just don't see a difference on drops.  Pettis is better at catching punts.   

I feel like VJJ drops more, but youre not wrong. Pettis is no one's WR1

[Mongo3451]

56 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

...and yet I remember Pettis dropping some potential game winning passes in recent years. None of that means I choose Velus over Pettis either.  I just don't see a difference on drops.  Pettis is better at catching punts.   

His worst drop year was 2022.  He had three.  For his career, he has a total of four drops on 131 targets for a 3% drop rate.  NFL average is 6.7

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

His worst drop year was 2022.  He had three.  For his career, he has a total of four drops on 131 targets for a 3% drop rate.  NFL average is 6.7

They were 3 painful drops.  

[AZ54]

We’ve had plenty of chatter about adding a DE and almost did.  Yet after camp i feel better about our prospects at DE and I’m more concerned about DT depth now.  Grabbing a solid vet who gets cut or even trading a late round pick for one could give us a solid 3 man rotation.   

[adam]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

We’ve had plenty of chatter about adding a DE and almost did.  Yet after camp i feel better about our prospects at DE and I’m more concerned about DT depth now.  Grabbing a solid vet who gets cut or even trading a late round pick for one could give us a solid 3 man rotation.   

I don't know know if you heard this chatter, but I read this today. So since Byard joined the team, they have been running basically a Left Safety and Right Safety and not FS and SS. Apparently they have been doing that for DT as well, instead of 1T and 3T, they are playing as LT and RT (but on defense) and they are basically interchangeable. 

 

[BearFan PHX]

Billings as a 3T? He IS extremely strong...