Week 1 Official Game Thread - TEN @ CHI, 9/8, 12PM CDT, CHI -4.5 O/U 43.5, FOX

[adam]

Placeholder for Week 1 -

SEA (Waldron's offense) beat TEN in Week 16 last season 20-17 in TEN. Geno Smith was 25-36, 69.4%, 227 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 2 Sacks, 104.7 QB Rating. 18 receptions by WRs. 

SEA sacked TEN 6 times.

TEN replaced Derrick Henry with Tony Pollard. If the Bears can stop Pollard, who is more of a dual threat than Henry, I think the Bears win handily. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I recall while at the Bears/Ten game during the shutdown that the Titans were much more physical than the Bears. I expect them to be as much like then but the Bears have been upgraded in that category as well under Flus. Bears have much better talent now and they should win this game. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Let’s get to this game healthy and let this be the start of a truly new era of Bears football - one that puts the Bears back on the map as a truly elite franchise!!! 

[adam]

4 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Let’s get to this game healthy and let this be the start of a truly new era of Bears football - one that puts the Bears back on the map as a truly elite franchise!!! 

Well, they should be healthier than the Titans. They are expecting to play starters in their preseason finale:

Quote

Titans coach Brian Callahan said Sunday that he's currently planning for the team's starters, which should include Levis, to play in the preseason finale versus New Orleans on Sunday, Aug. 25, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.

Callahan added that he'd "like to see our starting offense play somewhere in the 3-ish series" against the Saints, per Wyatt. Levis played the first two drives of Tennessee's preseason opener and then was held out along with a group of the team's key starters in Saturday's exhibition against Seattle.

That's surprising, because the regular season is only 2 weeks later, so even if a guy has a soft tissue injury, he may not be 100% going to Week 1. For the Bears, unless someone gets hurt in practice, they should have all of their starters and key subs healthy for Week 1.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

53 minutes ago, adam said:

Well, they should be healthier than the Titans. They are expecting to play starters in their preseason finale:

That's surprising, because the regular season is only 2 weeks later, so even if a guy has a soft tissue injury, he may not be 100% going to Week 1. For the Bears, unless someone gets hurt in practice, they should have all of their starters and key subs healthy for Week 1.

Knocking on wood so you don’t jinx us haha 

[Stinger226]

They have a new coach ,I expect it to take some time before the team gets up to speed. Also we are on the road and some injuries that may prevent them from being healthy to begin with.

[adam]

My unbiased, indisputable, backed by scientific fact prediction:   Bears 31-13  

[adam]

After the last preseason game, I change my prediction to Bears 33-10. 

[Pixote]

NFL.com had an article:

Ten overlooked NFL rookies who showed serious flashes in preseason

I was surprised they didn't overlook the Bears, as in the past, that was the norm.

I was pleased to see they included Austin Booker as one of the 10 rookies they expect to make names for themselves this year.

Quote

As a freak athlete with a high-revving motor and exceptional first-step quickness, Booker was viewed as a perfect match for Matt Eberflus’ scheme when the Bears traded into the fifth round to draft him in April. Booker did not disappoint with a stellar preseason that saw him register 2.5 sacks while providing persistent pressure off the edge. As he acclimates to the pro game and settles into his role as a “see ball, get ball” defender off the edge, the Bears might have discovered the perfect pass-rushing complement for Montez Sweat. 

The big surprise to me is that they would include a punter. Yes, They actually listed our punter, Tory Taylor, as one of the rookie prospects. 

Quote

The ability to flip the field with the kicking game is a top priority, especially for defensive-minded coaches. Matt Eberflus has a dangerous weapon at his disposal with Taylor handling the punting duties in the Windy City. He flashed by posting an average distance of 58.6 yards on his five preseason punts. As the fourth-round pick settles into his role as a key component of the Bears’ complementary football strategy, Taylor -- the only punter drafted this year -- could be the team’s X-factor on a playoff run. 

I had not realized he averaged over 58 yards per punt in preseason! WOW!

 

[adam]

5 minutes ago, Pixote said:

NFL.com had an article:

Ten overlooked NFL rookies who showed serious flashes in preseason

I was surprised they didn't overlook the Bears, as in the past, that was the norm.

I was pleased to see they included Austin Booker as one of the 10 rookies they expect to make names for themselves this year.

The big surprise to me is that they would include a punter. Yes, They actually listed our punter, Tory Taylor, as one of the rookie prospects. 

I had not realized he averaged over 58 yards per punt in preseason! WOW!

 

That is impressive. Taylor was always going to be a stud. Booker was a question mark, but early on, you could tell that his motor was going to give him an edge (no pun intended).

I do find it funny that Bucky includes 2nd rounders on the list. I don't remember many 2nd rounders being "overlooked". I know he states outside of the 1st round but Nubin was the first Safety taken, so I don't know why he would not expect Nubin to look good or better than others, when as the first Safety, and top-50 pick, you would hope he would. 

[adam]

Here are my game predictions beyond the score:

First Reception: Moore
First TD: Everett

First Sack: Sweat
First INT: Byard (Byard Revenge Game)

[Stinger226]

41-9, Am I to hyped up?

[adam]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

41-9, Am I to hyped up?

I had 33-10, so we are not that far off. I may have missed a defensive TD in my prediction

[Stinger226]

On 8/31/2024 at 11:06 AM, adam said:

I had 33-10, so we are not that far off. I may have missed a defensive TD in my prediction

I think we have a D TD in the game. Levis is young and we will lead the league in interceptions. I would say 3 in this game. You add in a punter that doesnt allow any field position to Tenn, no TDs. 

Strouds first game 28-44/262/ no TDs no Ints. CW will easily top that.

[adam]

QBs that are #1 picks are 0-8-1 in Week 1 games dating back to David Carr in 2002, who was the last #1 QB to win his pro debut in Week 1. 

I understand the perceived correlation, but in reality, this just points to the fact that #1 QBs normally go to really bad teams. Here are the previous 9 QBs that formed the 0-8-1 record and how their team did in Week 1:

Bryce Young - 2023 - 24-10 Loss, 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 2 Sacks
Trevor Lawrence - 2021 - 37-21 Loss, 332 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT, 1 Sack
Joe Burrow - 2020 - 16-13 Loss, 193 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3 Sacks, 1 Rush TD
Kyler Murray - 2019 - 27-27 Tie, 308 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 5 Sacks
Jameis Winston - 2015 - 42-14 Loss, 210 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks
Andrew Luck - 2012 - 41-21 Loss (to Da Bears!), 309 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 3 Sacks, 1 FL
Cam Newton - 2011 - 28-21 Loss (Holy crap, Cam threw for 422 and 432 yards in his 1st two pro games), 422 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 4 Sacks, 1 Rush TD
Sam Bradford - 2010 - 17-13 Loss, 253 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 2 Sacks
Matthew Stafford - 2009 - 45-27 Loss, 205 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 1 Sack, 1 Rush TD

So in 6 of the 9 games, the QB's teams allowed 27+ points. I doubt the Titans score 20. Only twice were opponents held under 20 pts.

4x 300-yard games, only two QBs under 200 yards passing. 

Average: 264 Yards, 1.3 TD, 2.1 INT, 2.8 Sacks, 0.3 Rush TD

 

 

[Pixote]

29 minutes ago, adam said:

QBs that are #1 picks are 0-8-1 in Week 1 games dating back to David Carr in 2002, who was the last #1 QB to win his pro debut in Week 1. 

Then, it is time for Caleb to break this trend and set a new standard. To do that he will need an OL to prevent him from being sacked so many times, as that seems to be one common denominator for the examples shown. The other commonality is interceptions. Hopefully, if the OL keeps pressure off of him, he can really buck the history by not throwing a INT in his first game.

If that happens, it signifies to me that we are in for a great season of Bears' football.

 

[adam]

27 minutes ago, Pixote said:

Then, it is time for Caleb to break this trend and set a new standard. To do that he will need an OL to prevent him from being sacked so many times, as that seems to be one common denominator for the examples shown. The other commonality is interceptions. Hopefully, if the OL keeps pressure off of him, he can really buck the history by not throwing a INT in his first game.

If that happens, it signifies to me that we are in for a great season of Bears' football.

 

He is different. I think he breaks all the trends and looks elite right out the gate. It would not shock me if he breaks several rookie passing records.

4,374 Passing Yards, 31 TDs, 627 Passing Attempts, 396 Completions, 13-3 Record.

[AZ54]

https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2024/09/04/gimme-him-one-player-titans-would-steal-from-bears-cole-kmet/

[adam]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2024/09/04/gimme-him-one-player-titans-would-steal-from-bears-cole-kmet/

Yeah, their TE1 is Okonkwo, who is decent, but would probably be TE3 on the Bears.

[AZ54]

The other article i didn’t get time to post earlier.  
 

https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2024/09/03/tennessee-titans-urged-sign-defensive-lineman-adam-gotsis/

“Even with all of the changes, the Titans still have some weaknesses that may shine through during the 2024 campaign. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department believes cornerbacks, interior defensive line, running back, quarterback, and wide receiver are the biggest weaknesses.”

“Cornerback’s depth has been widely documented after only keeping four on the initial 53-man roster. The unit is counting on veterans L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to man the outside, with Roger McCreary in the slot.”

Weeks ago I saw where McCreary was ranked as one of the top NB in the league.  If I’m not mistaken he also plays outside CB in their base D.  
 

“The Titans defense is going to look different under new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson. From a personnel perspective, the defensive interior is a little thin. Jeffery Simmons will be expected to play a lot of the snaps, but the rest are going to be divided up between Sebastian Joseph-Day, rookie T’Vondre Sweat and Keondre Coburn.”

Nobody is moving Simmons.  Sweat is tough early in games but has no endurance whatsoever and is mostly useless in the 4th quarter of games, if not sooner depending on snap count.  I still expect we’ll work more on the edges with our run plays at least early.   If you want him on the sidelines make Sweat run early and often.  

[adam]

Weaknesses: cornerbacks, interior defensive line, running back, quarterback, and wide receiver.

In other words, majority of the team. Funny that they don't see TE as a weakness, that should be one as well. 

[adam]

Titans Message Boards are hilarious.

https://www.titansreport.com/topic/47869-week-1-titans-vs-bears-discussion/

Here are some nuggets from this 26 page thread:

Quote

I want to see Caleb Williams crying in the stands being cuddled by his mom after the game.

I am feeling a Titans win.
Levis to over perform expectations with an improved OL, and Williams to under perform expectations as a rookie QB.

So, the worst team in the NFL drafts a quarterback. We play him as a rookie in week one.
The Titans in theory have gotten much better. 
Funny how the prognosticators are picking against us...

Does he have the work ethic to work on things or will he never touch a playbook?  That's where he gets Maznel comparisons. 

He's most likely closer to 2023 Sam Howell than an elite QB this season

Titans 31 Bears 23

Bad leader, egotistical, soft, cannot win vs top competition..I have never understood his hype

Williams is not great at all, very overrated. 

I'm looking for Sneed to straight up bully Odunze
 

They spend 20+ pages infighting about Caleb Williams and then it starts a personal war between a few posters. 90% of the posts are personal attacks against each other. However, when they did post. It was basically Williams is overrated and Levis is amazing. One of the best ones is the guy who said the Bears were the worst team in the NFL last year because they drafted #1. That is all you need to know about the competency level of their fanbase. Clueless.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Titans Message Boards are hilarious.

https://www.titansreport.com/topic/47869-week-1-titans-vs-bears-discussion/

Here are some nuggets from this 26 page thread:

They spend 20+ pages infighting about Caleb Williams and then it starts a personal war between a few posters. 90% of the posts are personal attacks against each other. However, when they did post. It was basically Williams is overrated and Levis is amazing. One of the best ones is the guy who said the Bears were the worst team in the NFL last year because they drafted #1. That is all you need to know about the competency level of their fanbase. Clueless.

Sure put Sneed on our 3rd WR.  

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Titans Message Boards are hilarious.

https://www.titansreport.com/topic/47869-week-1-titans-vs-bears-discussion/

Here are some nuggets from this 26 page thread:

They spend 20+ pages infighting about Caleb Williams and then it starts a personal war between a few posters. 90% of the posts are personal attacks against each other. However, when they did post. It was basically Williams is overrated and Levis is amazing. One of the best ones is the guy who said the Bears were the worst team in the NFL last year because they drafted #1. That is all you need to know about the competency level of their fanbase. Clueless.

ha! hilarious!

[adam]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Sure put Sneed on our 3rd WR.  

First thing I thought of, they literally are clueless.