Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[adam]

Week 1 - 28.3
Week 2 - 21.6

After 2 weeks, at 24.2, he is 2nd to last in the NFL, only ahead of Bryce Young. Bo Nix is at 35.7 and Daniels is at 46.8

Williams needs to step it up as QBR is a huge predictor of future success. 
 

Comparatively, Fields ended his rookie year at 31.4, Zach Wilson at 33.4, and Lawrence at 39.1.

 

Williams PFF Grade is a 44.3, the lowest of any Bears offensive players and 2nd lowest of any player. Only Booker is lower at 42.9.

[BearFan PHX]

I think Williams is doing fine. I saw a bunch of good pocket passes in rhythm this week.

The problem is the running game, and you can tie that right back to the OL and specifically the ridiculous blocking schemes we are running.

We also fail at pass protection. In that case the players just arent performing. They are in the right place in protection (mostly) but losing their battles. We will get blitzed non stop until we prove we can punish defenses for doing it.

Chris Morgan is a liability, and if Waldron cant see that and step in, then he is too.

Meanwhile Eberflus is mediocre at best. More unforced errors - going for it on 4th and 1 early int he game backed up, stupid challenges means poor timeout management.

[adam]

36 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think Williams is doing fine. I saw a bunch of good pocket passes in rhythm this week.

The problem is the running game, and you can tie that right back to the OL and specifically the ridiculous blocking schemes we are running.

We also fail at pass protection. In that case the players just arent performing. They are in the right place in protection (mostly) but losing their battles. We will get blitzed non stop until we prove we can punish defenses for doing it.

Chris Morgan is a liability, and if Waldron cant see that and step in, then he is too.

Meanwhile Eberflus is mediocre at best. More unforced errors - going for it on 4th and 1 early int he game backed up, stupid challenges means poor timeout management.

The 2nd half timeout on the Gordon INT attempt was terrible. The first one was ok if you were just doing the challenge in place of a timeout. However, in the 2nd half, in a tight game where timeouts are super valuable, you can't waste them. 

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, adam said:

The 2nd half timeout on the Gordon INT attempt was terrible. The first one was ok if you were just doing the challenge in place of a timeout. However, in the 2nd half, in a tight game where timeouts are super valuable, you can't waste them. 

its one thing when you get physically beaten, and another when you make unforced errors. How about delay of game after a timeout? How does that happen?

ANd going for it on 4th and 1 deep in your own territory in the middle of the second quarter down 6? Thats fireable.

[adam]

26 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

its one thing when you get physically beaten, and another when you make unforced errors. How about delay of game after a timeout? How does that happen?

ANd going for it on 4th and 1 deep in your own territory in the middle of the second quarter down 6? Thats fireable.

That was an incredibly sloppy game for a coach that preaches discipline. Unfortunately Flus is a better DC than HC. 

[BearFan PHX]

35 minutes ago, adam said:

That was an incredibly sloppy game for a coach that preaches discipline. Unfortunately Flus is a better DC than HC. 

The defense has been playing well, but I dont think the necessarily means Flus is a good DC. I mean, hes certainly decent, but would the defense be worse without him, and with another average DC? I dont think so.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

The defense has been playing well, but I dont think the necessarily means Flus is a good DC. I mean, hes certainly decent, but would the defense be worse without him, and with another average DC? I dont think so.

To give him credit, there seems to be halftime adjustments ever since Alan Williams left. It could just be a coincidence, but there has been a distinct change in the 2nd half, especially if the other team was having any sustained success on offense. 

[AZ54]

I’m not worried about Caleb yet.   I felt in game he showed progress and the film reviews I’ve seen back that up.  In the second half the Texans got him to keep his eyes down after the snap and he missed some easy throws.  On one blitz he had Homer in the left flat on the hot read with blockers.  Perfect blitz beater and he never looked that way.  He’s still playing checkers but given the step up from game one to two I think soon he’ll be playing beginner chess.   

Shelton is my single biggest concern on the team   He’s clearly not that strong but as a veteran his eyes and assignment discipline should be much better   I’m not even sure there would be a drop off if we put Kramer out there    If we have to live with assignment mistakes I think Kramer would put up more of a fight and this line really needs someone to start showing that   

 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I’m not worried about Caleb yet.   I felt in game he showed progress and the film reviews I’ve seen back that up.  In the second half the Texans got him to keep his eyes down after the snap and he missed some easy throws.  On one blitz he had Homer in the left flat on the hot read with blockers.  Perfect blitz beater and he never looked that way.  He’s still playing checkers but given the step up from game one to two I think soon he’ll be playing beginner chess.   

Shelton is my single biggest concern on the team   He’s clearly not that strong but as a veteran his eyes and assignment discipline should be much better   I’m not even sure there would be a drop off if we put Kramer out there    If we have to live with assignment mistakes I think Kramer would put up more of a fight and this line really needs someone to start showing that   

 

Shelton, Davis and the scheme are all to blame for sure. I dunno about Kramer, but I don't see how it could be much worse than it already is.

I find myself wondering if Kiran can play guard, how good Bill Murray (and Kramer!) really are and other assorted terrible thoughts.

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Shelton, Davis and the scheme are all to blame for sure. I dunno about Kramer, but I don't see how it could be much worse than it already is.

I find myself wondering if Kiran can play guard, how good Bill Murray (and Kramer!) really are and other assorted terrible thoughts.

Kiran can play OG but with him having zero experience there in the NFL to adjust to the speed and power I'd be really nervous putting him there.  If we have to rely on him at all I think he'd find it easier on the outside.     

[BearFan PHX]

29 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Kiran can play OG but with him having zero experience there in the NFL to adjust to the speed and power I'd be really nervous putting him there.  If we have to rely on him at all I think he'd find it easier on the outside.     

oh for sure re: nervous to stick him in there, like i said all my ideas about fixing this with what we have on the roster are terrible.

Then again Jenkins was an OT converted to OG, and i think they say playing inside is a little easier?

Like I said, terrible.

[jason]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Kiran can play OG but with him having zero experience there in the NFL to adjust to the speed and power I'd be really nervous putting him there.  If we have to rely on him at all I think he'd find it easier on the outside.     

Please tell me we aren’t back to the days of moving Chris Williams to OG, a natural OG to Center, and a Center to OT.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, jason said:

Please tell me we aren’t back to the days of moving Chris Williams to OG, a natural OG to Center, and a Center to OT.

oh yes, thats exactly where we are, and it is just as awful.

Like I said, all the ideas for changing things are terrible ideas. Hopefully we get some guys back from IR soon. like Bates, and maybe even Borom.

But this is definitely our biggest weakness.

I imagine our roster next year will be much more complete. But i hate saying that now before week 3.

[Stinger226]

There is no calvary coming to save the OL. The only way this team gets better is with more OL friendly play calls and better execuation. Bates has to be better than Shelton but that's 3 weeks away. A big part of the problem last week was communicating the OL adjustments, CW admited he had a problem with that.

I think more 2 TE sets and focus on running the ball will help alot. That sets up play action. All of that will make the offense run better. Flus has shown why Poles kept him by his half time adjustments . Only 3 points by 2 teams. He blew the one challege but think he took a shot in the dark on the interception, hoping the refs make a mistake, something they do all the time. After a 1-1 record, no ones getting fired. Check back in 4 weeks and we will have more games to judge by. 5-1 or 4-2 its a go. 3-3 ?? losing record, chances are new people NEXT YEAR.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

There is no calvary coming to save the OL. The only way this team gets better is with more OL friendly play calls and better execuation. Bates has to be better than Shelton but that's 3 weeks away. A big part of the problem last week was communicating the OL adjustments, CW admited he had a problem with that.

I think more 2 TE sets and focus on running the ball will help alot. That sets up play action. All of that will make the offense run better. Flus has shown why Poles kept him by his half time adjustments . Only 3 points by 2 teams. He blew the one challege but think he took a shot in the dark on the interception, hoping the refs make a mistake, something they do all the time. After a 1-1 record, no ones getting fired. Check back in 4 weeks and we will have more games to judge by. 5-1 or 4-2 its a go. 3-3 ?? losing record, chances are new people NEXT YEAR.

I just don't understand how the Bears can't use 6 players to block 4-5 rushers and consistently win. That still leaves 4 players in routes at any given time.

After watching the game again on the all-22, there were too many routes with nothing underneath over the middle. It doesn't seem like routes are playing off each other.

Maybe I am missing something, but the screenshot below is a great example. Two players in the backfield with Caleb, 3 WRs at the LOS on the snap. DBs playing 7-8 yards off. On the snap, all 3 WRs run vertical for 10+ yards. All they needed was one receiver to cut over the middle and there is a huge gain. In the pic, Carter's guy is backpedaling the entire time with no less than 5 yards cushion. If Carter breaks inside, Williams gets an easy pass off over the middle to hit Carter in stride with a ton of space to run. There is a single high Safety near the Texans 40 at this point.

This happens ALOT. I am going to track how many times this happens (no MoF crossing routes). Yeah, no one is clearing anything out. On almost every sack there are several deep routes with nothing underneath. Everett looks terrible on almost every play.

 

[jason]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I just don't understand how the Bears can't use 6 players to block 4-5 rushers and consistently win. That still leaves 4 players in routes at any given time.

100%. I don’t understand how they look so bad. Tell the OL to form a wall, stay in their lane, accept incoming stunts, have the TE stay in to create double teams, and use the RB as a “blitz spy” to chip any stragglers who sneak through.

[adam]

12 minutes ago, jason said:

100%. I don’t understand how they look so bad. Tell the OL to form a wall, stay in their lane, accept incoming stunts, have the TE stay in to create double teams, and use the RB as a “blitz spy” to chip any stragglers who sneak through.

It honestly looks like there are 2-3 different plays going on at the same time. 

On the jet sweep to Moore (that was gobbled up). The Bears had 3 blockers for 5+ defenders. Half the line just stood up or ran the other way, not even slowing down the guy in front of them.

There are sooo many plays like this.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, jason said:

100%. I don’t understand how they look so bad. Tell the OL to form a wall, stay in their lane, accept incoming stunts, have the TE stay in to create double teams, and use the RB as a “blitz spy” to chip any stragglers who sneak through.

exactly. its not rocket science. its REALLY bad coaching.

[adam]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

exactly. its not rocket science. its REALLY bad coaching.

So I will say the scripted drive, or at least the first 8-10 plays were solid. There was variety in formations, motion, etc. Then once the line started really struggling with noise, etc, he went very conservative.

[adam]

So Williams has been sacked 9 times in 2 games. Since they started recording sacks, there have only been 92 two-game spans with a QB being sacked 10+ times. The largest two-game span is Jake Plummer with 16. Fields has two of those 92 with 11 and 10. Krenzel has 2x 10 sack games, and McMahon has 2x 10 sack games.

Just for fun, there are 3 QBs with 20 sacks in a 3 game span (Plummer, David Carr, and Tommy DeVito). Plummer owns the largest 4-game span at 28 sacks, DeVito, Carr, and Plummer have a 26 sack 4-game span as well. 

[Stinger226]

When I became happy for getting CW, those werent the records I was hoping for.

[adam]

24 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

When I became happy for getting CW, those werent the records I was hoping for.

I just saw that he was up there in sacks and wanted to compare with other QBs over two game spans.

It is still so early, there is not much of an assessment to make with so few snaps and only 66 passing attempts.

Josh Allen had 5x 2 INT games his rookie year and he only started 11 games. He threw for more than 225 yards twice, never exceeding 245 yards. He was sacked 15 times in his first 3 starts with 2 TD and 4 INT. 

The next two games, I want to see a couple of TD passes, no INTs, less sacks, and over 200 yards passing the next two games each. That would be visible progress across the board.

 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

So Williams has been sacked 9 times in 2 games. Since they started recording sacks, there have only been 92 two-game spans with a QB being sacked 10+ times. The largest two-game span is Jake Plummer with 16. Fields has two of those 92 with 11 and 10. Krenzel has 2x 10 sack games, and McMahon has 2x 10 sack games.

Just for fun, there are 3 QBs with 20 sacks in a 3 game span (Plummer, David Carr, and Tommy DeVito). Plummer owns the largest 4-game span at 28 sacks, DeVito, Carr, and Plummer have a 26 sack 4-game span as well. 

Of course Oline play has been poor but we also shouldn't be surprised by this from Caleb.  This is exactly how Caleb played last season as USC where he often bypassed the quick reads holding onto the ball looking for the bigger gain.  Except in the NFL he's got to learn everyone is bigger and faster.   

Almost every single scouting report was focused on if he could play on time.   Most said he had played on time, most said he only extended plays because his defense was so bad he knew he had to score.  That defensive excuse is out the window.  Bad oline play is still with him but despite those struggles Caleb is still leaving plays on the field.  That includes easy ones where receivers are wide open deep or on intermediate routes.  In each of his two games he should easily have at least 50-70 more yards passing.  Add some help from Keenan and Rome and those numbers would be even better. 

Early in the Texans game he played in rhythm, late in the game his eyes got down on the rush and the old Caleb showed up.  Don't like getting sacks on blitzes?  Hit your wide open hot read with 3 blockers in front of him.  If I can see Caleb playing scared I'm certain the Texans' DC saw it too and wasn't concerned about the risk of a calling a blitz like that late in a one score game.      

Overall I think there is room for improvement at QB, Oline, TE (Everett has been horrible), RB, and WR.  Above all if there is to be a future with Caleb he'll show it on the field soon regardless of the issues around him.  I think he will get there.  

[BearFan PHX]

Looking at the film this week, Caleb did a LOT of good things. He is progressing very nicely, and looked like someone far beyond their second game.

The ball is coming out fast to the right guy, even under such ridiculous pressure.

That's not to say that he doesnt have stuff to learn - he does for sure - but he's doing great in my opinion. I am liking what i see from him.

[jason]

22 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

When I became happy for getting CW, those werent the records I was hoping for.

But this is precisely why I, and those who agreed with me, didn’t want CW drafted at #1. The OL problem would still likely exist, and that proved to be true. And we couldn’t truly tell how high Fields could have ascended with proper protection. Will always be true because he’s not in Chicago. And the huge draft yield from the trade will never be known, but the rumored picks were franchise-changing.

It’s really early, and it’s just like we said with Trubisky and Fields, but I hope the Bears protect CW don’t ruin his future.