Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[adam]

Now up to 28.9 on the season, up over 2 pts. Would like to see a slightly better incremental increase week over week, but anything positive is better than regressing. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

https://x.com/clayharbs82/status/1840524744388427910?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1840524744388427910|twgr^e130b4064c540397afcae484037fcc5eb5a28052|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.chicitysports.com%2Fthreads%2Fbears-beat-rams-your-top-takeaways.99919%2Fpage-5
 

[Bears4Ever_34]

I really don't get QBR at all. It's so strange to me how Stafford can have 2 turnovers and no touchdowns and still somehow come out of that game with a significantly better QBR (54) than Caleb today (39). They don't really explain the methodology clearly enough for me to trust the stat as meaningful. 

I mean, Bo Nix has a QBR in the 50's, somehow, despite a 1/4 TD/INT ratio and a game with 60 passing yards. It's crazy.

[adam]

7 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I really don't get QBR at all. It's so strange to me how Stafford can have 2 turnovers and no touchdowns and still somehow come out of that game with a significantly better QBR (54) than Caleb today (39). They don't really explain the methodology clearly enough for me to trust the stat as meaningful. 

I mean, Bo Nix has a QBR in the 50's, somehow, despite a 1/4 TD/INT ratio and a game with 60 passing yards. It's crazy.

Nix had a 35.7 QBR for the game and he had 1 TD and 0 INT, Nix also wasn't sacked. 

QBR takes QB Rating, EPA, and the opponent into account. That's where it hurt Caleb. He had a raw QBR of 50.8 but compared to other QBs that played the Rams, the total QBR you see on ESPN weights it for opponent. Murray had a raw QBR of 98.4 and Purdy had an 89.1 the two weeks prior.

Stafford's raw QBR was 43.5, less than Caleb's, but because he was playing the Bears defense. Richardson had a 15.4 last week. So a 40+ QBR against the Bears is above average, thus why Stafford was over 50.

QBR probably weights the raw QBR too much based on others because as much as it is the opponent, you also have to look at the last QB too and take it one step further for weighting. Like if Levis is the QB playing the other team's defense, the defense may not be good, Levis is just bad.

So raw may be a better snapshot value. So this week Caleb was 14th, just below Mahomes and ahead of Hurts with raw QBR. 

[adam]

His 2nd half stats were really solid.

That 12 play TD drive in the 3rd quarter was so efficient. We need about 4 of those per game.

The Bears are scoring in the 4th quarter, something they didn't do with Fields. 

9 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

https://x.com/clayharbs82/status/1840524744388427910?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1840524744388427910|twgr^e130b4064c540397afcae484037fcc5eb5a28052|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.chicitysports.com%2Fthreads%2Fbears-beat-rams-your-top-takeaways.99919%2Fpage-5
 

 

[Stinger226]

Stats can be deceving at times. Its just a messuring stick but not the end all answer to everything. PPF is the stat king  yet they're not always accurate.

[Bears4Ever_34]

Don't know if anybody has been paying attention to Kurt Warner's weekly interview segments he does with 670 to talk about Caleb, but he seems pretty committed to the idea that he hasn't progressed from where he was 2 weeks ago against the Texans. He's been pretty negative about his performances each of the past 2 weeks when conventional wisdom seems to suggest he has improved.

If you haven't listened, be sure to check out 670 YouTube page, but the bulk of his criticism seems to boil down to him not trusting his eyes, particularly on downfield throws, and looking uncomfortable anytime he has to come off his 1st read. 

The big area I disagreed with him most on was when they talked about Daniels and he scoffed at the idea that the Bears were asking more of Caleb (in terms of pre/post-snap operation) than Daniels. He made no mention of the fact that Daniels almost never comes off his 1st option and most of his passes are thrown within 10-15 yards of the LOS. There's a reason why he's completing 80+% of his passes. It's not that he's sooooo much more accurate than the likes of prime Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, it's that he's been ultra conservative in attacking down field.

His criticisms of Caleb seem valid, but I just flat out don't agree that he hasn't progressed at all from 2 weeks ago. Again, I'd encourage everyone to check out his interviews to get the full picture, but the tone I've been getting from him is that he isn't a fan of Caleb's game. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

13 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Don't know if anybody has been paying attention to Kurt Warner's weekly interview segments he does with 670 to talk about Caleb, but he seems pretty committed to the idea that he hasn't progressed from where he was 2 weeks ago against the Texans. He's been pretty negative about his performances each of the past 2 weeks when conventional wisdom seems to suggest he has improved.

If you haven't listened, be sure to check out 670 YouTube page, but the bulk of his criticism seems to boil down to him not trusting his eyes, particularly on downfield throws, and looking uncomfortable anytime he has to come off his 1st read. 

The big area I disagreed with him most on was when they talked about Daniels and he scoffed at the idea that the Bears were asking more of Caleb (in terms of pre/post-snap operation) than Daniels. He made no mention of the fact that Daniels almost never comes off his 1st option and most of his passes are thrown within 10-15 yards of the LOS. There's a reason why he's completing 80+% of his passes. It's not that he's sooooo much more accurate than the likes of prime Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, it's that he's been ultra conservative in attacking down field.

His criticisms of Caleb seem valid, but I just flat out don't agree that he hasn't progressed at all from 2 weeks ago. Again, I'd encourage everyone to check out his interviews to get the full picture, but the tone I've been getting from him is that he isn't a fan of Caleb's game. 

Last week he actually came out a few days after his Monday score interview and indicated that he actually saw a lot better progress when he rewatched the tape...so was more complimentary of the Colts game later on in the week than the beginning of the week. This week I actually thought I saw the same thing - I didn't see as much growth in Caleb this week - but he also didn't make the bad throw. I'll also note, growth isn't always linear.  I do disagree that he is a one read QB - he clearly is going through a number of progressions - whether he always trusts them and his feet along with it - absolutely not, but very rare for a rookie QB to be able to do that and the Bears are putting him out there with zero training wheels (hopefully that doesn't backfire - I think Caleb has the thick skin and swagger needed to deal with the increased frustrations that will come from that approach - but hopefully not using training wheels allows him to reach his potential quicker).  

 

[BearFan PHX]

I think he meant Daniels is a one read QB, which i agree with!

Kurt Warner is sometimes really off base I think. At times he's been negative about Williams, and I think time will prove Warner wrong.

I like watching all the breakdown guys, Warner included, but there are times I see the same film and disagree with what he says about it. Not the routes and stuff, he's pretty solid with that, but who's open, what the QB should do.

But it's OK everyone has their own point of view.

[Bears4Ever_34]

57 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think he meant Daniels is a one read QB, which i agree with!

Kurt Warner is sometimes really off base I think. At times he's been negative about Williams, and I think time will prove Warner wrong.

I like watching all the breakdown guys, Warner included, but there are times I see the same film and disagree with what he says about it. Not the routes and stuff, he's pretty solid with that, but who's open, what the QB should do.

But it's OK everyone has their own point of view.

To be clear, Kurt was saying Caleb has been a one read QB this season (which has been true, to a degree), but made no mention of how Daniels is just as much, if not more of a one read QB through 4 games.

My complaint about Kurt is not that his criticisms aren't valid. On a macro-level they are. He's been inconsistent getting through is progressions and trusting his eyes, which have lead to horrendous overthrows and poor decisions. My problem is that he's been overly uncharitable about his progress in some of those areas the last couple weeks.

Caleb objectively improved his decision making against the Rams and Kurt still lead with the idea that he's made no progress. It feels bad faith to me, I don't know.

Oh, and the whole "Jayden has been asked to do just as much if not more for WAS offense than Caleb has for CHI" is certifiable absurd. No shot is that remotely true when you look at the passing charts and when you watch how both are operating at the LOS.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

To be clear, Kurt was saying Caleb has been a one read QB this season (which has been true, to a degree), but made no mention of how Daniels is just as much, if not more of a one read QB through 4 games...

Caleb objectively improved his decision making against the Rams and Kurt still lead with the idea that he's made no progress. It feels bad faith to me, I don't know.

Kurt Warner is hit or miss with me. Sometimes I think he's making sense, sometimes the clip hes showing looks really different to my eyes.

Thank you for clearing up my misunderstanding too - I didnt realize Warner had been saying that. It's crazy since i can see Caleb moving his head around. And to Warner: just because a play works, and the first read is open and CW goes there with the ball doesnt mean he isnt capable of reading on if the guy isnt open. I mean, that's what theyre supposed to do isnt it?

[adam]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Kurt Warner is hit or miss with me. Sometimes I think he's making sense, sometimes the clip hes showing looks really different to my eyes.

Thank you for clearing up my misunderstanding too - I didnt realize Warner had been saying that. It's crazy since i can see Caleb moving his head around. And to Warner: just because a play works, and the first read is open and CW goes there with the ball doesnt mean he isnt capable of reading on if the guy isnt open. I mean, that's what theyre supposed to do isnt it?

What I have seen some people say is that Caleb is slow thru his progressions. Maybe, but without knowing the timing of the routes, it seems like it would be hard to determine that. It feels like the route concepts are taking too long to develop.

Also, on a lot of these incompletions, it looks to me like Caleb is throwing the ball away from danger, but possibly giving his guy a chance to grab it without risking an INT. 

[AZ54]

I’m happy with the Caleb Williams I’ve seen the last two weeks.  I’ve watched a couple breakdowns of the Rams game and yes he missed on some big plays that were open but he’s learning to work the shorter stuff more effectively.  As Mark Sánchez said during the game take the profit.  What doesn’t get said is the corollary of not worrying if there was a bigger profit on the other side of the field.   I like that phrase and I don’t think Caleb did enough of that last year at USC.    It was my main concern for him.  Play on schedule play on time and take the profit.   He’s been doing more of that the last two games and less hero ball  which I find very encouraging.  Adam likely has the stats but it seems to me that Caleb has led several very long drives.  Often overcoming penalties.  That’s not easy to do in the NFL.   
 

Of course I regret the big plays he’s missed.  I’m not worried about that long term because that’s who he is.  I believe that part of his game will return when he stops thinking as much about everything else and he can just play ball.   

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I’m happy with the Caleb Williams I’ve seen the last two weeks.  I’ve watched a couple breakdowns of the Rams game and yes he missed on some big plays that were open but he’s learning to work the shorter stuff more effectively.  As Mark Sánchez said during the game take the profit.  What doesn’t get said is the corollary of not worrying if there was a bigger profit on the other side of the field.   I like that phrase and I don’t think Caleb did enough of that last year at USC.    It was my main concern for him.  Play on schedule play on time and take the profit.   He’s been doing more of that the last two games and less hero ball  which I find very encouraging.  Adam likely has the stats but it seems to me that Caleb has led several very long drives.  Often overcoming penalties.  That’s not easy to do in the NFL.   
 

Of course I regret the big plays he’s missed.  I’m not worried about that long term because that’s who he is.  I believe that part of his game will return when he stops thinking as much about everything else and he can just play ball.   

absolutely - this is exactly the progress we need to see.

Its not about finding the long pass in single coverage every time. It's about moving the chains and operating in rhythm.

Now that we are starting to beat the blitz, Caleb will start to see regular defenses, and that ought to help him grow in this way even more.

[adam]

If Caleb throws for 213 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs, and rushes for 21 yards against CAR. He would be on pace for a top 4 rookie QB season ever. 

After 5 games, here are the only 3 rookie QBs that had over 1K passing yards, over 60% Comp%, 5 TD Passes (1 per game), 4 or fewer INTs (less than 1 per game), and 100 rushing yards (20 per game):

Herbert, Watson, Minshew, that's it. 

If you project that out for an entire season. Only 3 rookie QBs in NFL history have thrown for 3200 yds with 200 per game,  1 TD/G, had less than 1 INT/G, and rushed for more than 20 Y/G. 

Murray, RG3, and Minshew. Murray and Minshew both did it in 2019. Using Murray as a template (Kingsbury connection):

Murray 349-542, 3722 yds, 64.4%, 20 TD, 12 INT, 544 Rushing Yds.

Murray's averages: 22-34 Comp-Att/G, 232 Y/G, 64.4%, 1.25 TD/G, 0.75 INT/G, 34 Rush Yd/G
Williams' averages: 22-35 Comp-Att/G, 197 Y/G, 61.7%, 0.75 TD/G, 1.0 INT/G, 20 Rush Yd/G (current averages)

Williams is already super close to the pace and if he continually improves, he may surpass some of Murray's numbers by the end of the year. 

Removing the rushing component, 8 more QBs would qualify: Herbert, Prescott, Stroud, Mayfield, Mac Jones, Bradford, Ryan, and Wentz. That would still make it a top 9 rookie QB season ever.

So Williams is right on track already. 

[BearFan PHX]

not that this proves anything, but here it is anyway
 

 

[adam]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

not that this proves anything, but here it is anyway
 

 

I feel like Daniels is going to be good, but is going to have a restricted game plan. He feels like DeShaun Watson athleticism and passing with a Mitch Trubisky brain. 

Williams is going to be a surgeon. Looking back at the tape of the last two games. In a weird way it seems like they are forcing him to play in structure longer than normal, to not be so quick to get out of the pocket. Also, he is throwing a ton of balls away, which is actually a good sign. His rating and QBR are a lot lower because of the incomplete passes, but he does throw a good number away, and several have saved a few sacks.

Daniels always scared me. He is a skinnier Lamar and all it is going to take is one running play and he becomes RG4.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I feel like Daniels is going to be good, but is going to have a restricted game plan. He feels like DeShaun Watson athleticism and passing with a Mitch Trubisky brain. 

Williams is going to be a surgeon. Looking back at the tape of the last two games. In a weird way it seems like they are forcing him to play in structure longer than normal, to not be so quick to get out of the pocket. Also, he is throwing a ton of balls away, which is actually a good sign. His rating and QBR are a lot lower because of the incomplete passes, but he does throw a good number away, and several have saved a few sacks.

Daniels always scared me. He is a skinnier Lamar and all it is going to take is one running play and he becomes RG4.

Daniels was the best QB in college last yr statlisticly. and its a reality both could be great QBs. Daniels is limited on the playbook as CW has been given the whole playbook to develop him quicker. Bagent looked good in a limited role last yr because it was limited in what they asked of him. I think Poles drafted the best QB but we have limited games to judge him. After 10 games may be a better time to judge. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Daniels was the best QB in college last yr statlisticly.

yeah but if you look at the game film, you see he locked onto his first read from the snap, and either threw it to them (they were open a lot) or ran.

Stats, out of context, dont really tell the story of what happened.

I dont think Daniels plays QB in the sense of running an entire offense.

[AZ54]

On 9/30/2024 at 7:37 PM, BearFan PHX said:

Kurt Warner is hit or miss with me. Sometimes I think he's making sense, sometimes the clip hes showing looks really different to my eyes.

Thank you for clearing up my misunderstanding too - I didnt realize Warner had been saying that. It's crazy since i can see Caleb moving his head around. And to Warner: just because a play works, and the first read is open and CW goes there with the ball doesnt mean he isnt capable of reading on if the guy isnt open. I mean, that's what theyre supposed to do isnt it?

Every time I see him criticizing other QBs all I think about is his INT at the goal line that lost the Superbowl for the Cardinals.  Regardless I enjoy watching the breakdowns.  Now in my second or third year of watching all these I can see differences in how Daniel’s, Warner, JT, and Tim Jenkins read plays or defenses.  I believe each found the things that worked for them.  Plus there is the element of how the coaches want it done which does play into the WRs mind as well when running routes.   Toss in other variables like protection issues and coverages which will vary based on opponents strengths.  

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Every time I see him criticizing other QBs all I think about is his INT at the goal line that lost the Superbowl for the Cardinals.  Regardless I enjoy watching the breakdowns.  Now in my second or third year of watching all these I can see differences in how Daniel’s, Warner, JT, and Tim Jenkins read plays or defenses.  I believe each found the things that worked for them.  Plus there is the element of how the coaches want it done which does play into the WRs mind as well when running routes.   Toss in other variables like protection issues and coverages which will vary based on opponents strengths.  

exactly. they are experts in how they played QB, and they know a lot about football, but they (like all of us) cant get past their own world view. there is good info there, but they arent objective scientific experts, they are more like someone knowledgeable who has an opinion, but that opinion is wrapped up with how they think about the QB position, which is subjective.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

yeah but if you look at the game film, you see he locked onto his first read from the snap, and either threw it to them (they were open a lot) or ran.

Stats, out of context, dont really tell the story of what happened.

I dont think Daniels plays QB in the sense of running an entire offense.

I never said he was better than CW just the fact he was high in the draft because of his great yr. The committee  doesnt care if he hit his first read or not, just that he was successful.

As you brought up great stats dont always give you the best measuring stick.

37 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

exactly. they are experts in how they played QB, and they know a lot about football, but they (like all of us) cant get past their own world view. there is good info there, but they arent objective scientific experts, they are more like someone knowledgeable who has an opinion, but that opinion is wrapped up with how they think about the QB position, which is subjective.

Experts are just labels people  put on content creators. Some are smart and some arent, its based on our views on a particular subject. They just give their opinions just like we do but they inject their experiences into theirs that we dont have. We like or dislike a creator because it more aligns with our opinion. 

[BearFan PHX]

10 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I never said he was better than CW just the fact he was high in the draft because of his great yr. The committee  doesnt care if he hit his first read or not, just that he was successful.

As you brought up great stats dont always give you the best measuring stick.

yes but if Daniels isnt fully capable of making reads, then in time, defensive coordinators will take things away from him and he wont be successful. Thats the point.

 

10 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Experts are just labels people  put on content creators. Some are smart and some arent, its based on our views on a particular subject. They just give their opinions just like we do but they inject their experiences into theirs that we dont have. We like or dislike a creator because it more aligns with our opinion. 

I think Kurt Warner is an expert at NFL QBing. He just has his style. And i dont think it applies to a good critique of some QBs who are different than he was.

Also, I like to learn. If someone says something I didnt know or agree with, and they show me on film, and I see it, then I change my opinion - so it isnt just an exercize in finding someone to reenforce what i already think.
 

[AZ54]

Adam:   I keep hearing Caleb was the best in the NFL under pressure and against the blitz last week.  Maybe I missed it in this thread but have you seen any stats that back that up?   
 

If true I have to be honest I never thought I’d hear that about any Bears QB let alone a rookie.  

[adam]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Adam:   I keep hearing Caleb was the best in the NFL under pressure and against the blitz last week.  Maybe I missed it in this thread but have you seen any stats that back that up?   
 

If true I have to be honest I never thought I’d hear that about any Bears QB let alone a rookie.  

Yeah, great find, I did hear that. 

https://wgntv.com/sports/bears-report/finding-that-flow-caleb-williams-is-working-to-find-ways-to-win-week-to-week/#:~:text=Williams didn't commit a,3 against the Indianapolis Colts.

Quote

Williams didn’t commit a turnover and posted a 124.6 quarterback rating under pressure against the Los Angeles Rams, tops among all NFL quarterbacks in Week 4, despite facing pressure 19.1% more of the time than he did in Week 3 against the Indianapolis Colts. Williams was pressured on 11/26 drop-backs (42.3%) against the Rams and 13/56 drop-backs (23.2%) against the Colts.

His performance is even more impressive considering he was under MORE pressure than against the Colts, and still posted the best QB Rating under pressure in the NFL for Week 4.