Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[adam]

What is a great sign is that he is 6th in Intended Air Yards at 8.4 but is 3rd to last in Aggressiveness (Jackson and Mahomes are 1-2). So he is not throwing risky passes but is still throwing balls well past the LOS. 

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, adam said:

What is a great sign is that he is 6th in Intended Air Yards at 8.4 but is 3rd to last in Aggressiveness (Jackson and Mahomes are 1-2). So he is not throwing risky passes but is still throwing balls well past the LOS. 

That plus the stats under pressure are all pretty impressive for a player with just 3 games experience headed into the Rams game.  Some of the big gains on underneath passes are not because of quick dump offs either.  He's often letting receivers stretch the field knowing where his outlet is and when he has to go to them.  There isn't a lot of time between those two scenarios given the poor pass protection.   

[adam]

Williams - QB Rating the last 4: 51.0 > 80.8 > 106.6 > 126.2

3 TD, 0 INT in his last 2 games, 5-2 in the last 3. 

Only 1 sack, had 7 in Week 2, then 4, then 3, and now 1. Offensive Line improving.

[adam]

Williams with a QBR of 84.0 this week, currently leads the NFL thru the THU and early SUN games. Wow, super impressive.

Since Week 2, Williams has improved every week. That should put his overall QBR close to 40 which would be on par with Love and Herbert. 

21.3 > 35.1 > 38.6 > 84.0

[adam]

Thru 5 games: 107-170, 62.9%, 1,091, 6.4 Y/A, 5 TD, 4 INT, 81.3 QB Rating, 36.6 QBR. 

With his 2nd 300-yd game, he would need 4 more in the next 12 games to join this exclusive group:

300-yd games as a rookie:
Herbert - 8
Luck - 6
Stroud - 6

[Bears4Ever_34]

Herbert with 8 300 yard games as a rookie is insane. I know people tend to gloss over 300 yards as a meaningless stat, but for Bears quarterbacks, it's important because of how rare they are. If I'm not mistaken, Caleb and Justin Fields now have the same amount of 300 yard passing games for their careers, lol.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Thru 5 games: 107-170, 62.9%, 1,091, 6.4 Y/A, 5 TD, 4 INT, 81.3 QB Rating, 36.6 QBR. 

With his 2nd 300-yd game, he would need 4 more in the next 12 games to join this exclusive group:

300-yd games as a rookie:
Herbert - 8
Luck - 6
Stroud - 6

love the stats adam!

I did a little excel-ling of my own, and found out that Caleb is kicking Jayden Daniels' butt the past two weeks.

Last Week
Caleb.........RTG 106.6 ---- 1 TD, 0 INT
Jayden......RTG 96.3 ---- 1 TD, 1 INT

This Week
Caleb.........RTG 126.2 ---- 2 TD, 0 INT
Jayden......RTG 85.1 ---- 1 TD, 1 INT

Caleb's best 2 games for yardage this season: 363 yds, 304 yds
Jayden's best 2 games for yardage this season: 254 yds, 238 yds

Jayden may be completing a lot of passes, but he isn't throwing a lot of TDs,
and he hasnt broken 255 yards in a game yet. Caleb has 5 TDs this year, Jayden has 4 TDs.

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

11 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Herbert with 8 300 yard games as a rookie is insane. I know people tend to gloss over 300 yards as a meaningless stat, but for Bears quarterbacks, it's important because of how rare they are. If I'm not mistaken, Caleb and Justin Fields now have the same amount of 300 yard passing games for their careers, lol.

Right! And one of them was this year, his 4th year.

In Caleb's NFL career, he goes over 300 yards 40% of the time (so far LOL 2 of 5)

[Bears4Ever_34]

6 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

love the stats adam!

I did a little excel-ling of my own, and found out that Caleb is kicking Jayden Daniels' butt the past two weeks.

Last Week
Caleb.........RTG 106.6 ---- 1 TD, 0 INT
Jayden......RTG 96.3 ---- 1 TD, 1 INT

This Week
Caleb.........RTG 126.2 ---- 2 TD, 0 INT
Jayden......RTG 85.1 ---- 1 TD, 1 INT

Caleb's best 2 games for yardage this season: 363 yds, 304 yds
Jayden's best 2 games for yardage this season: 254 yds, 238 yds

Jayden may be completing a lot of passes, but he isn't throwing a lot of TDs,
and he hasnt broken 255 yards in a game yet. Caleb has 5 TDs this year, Jayden has 4 TDs.

 

 

Outside of beating the Packers this year, there's nothing I want more from this regular season than for Caleb to silence the media love-fest with Daniels by beating the Commanders in a few weeks while clearly outplaying him.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Outside of beating the Packers this year, there's nothing I want more from this regular season than for Caleb to silence the media love-fest with Daniels by beating the Commanders in a few weeks while clearly outplaying him.

hell yes.

And he has been outplaying Daniels for 2 weeks already now.

[Stinger226]

Caleb has superstar written all over him but he is still a work in progress. He is not even close to what he will be. 300 is the magis number for QBs but does not always signal a winning QB. If you  are throwing that much it usually means you are behind in a game. 

Yesterday was almost the perfect example of what we need to do to have a formidale offense. 39-128 yds rushing and 29 passes for 304 yds. 40 rushes and 30 passes should be the goal every week. Now both the rushing and passing needs to be more efficient but the results speak for themselves 36-10.

[adam]

EPA/DB - Williams ended with +0.47, which is the 9th highest this season overall and 4th highest with 25+ attempts. Crazy to think it would've been higher if Moore doesn't drop that super easy catch too.  Of the 4 with 25+ attempts (Allen, Mayfield, Burrow), Williams had the highest pressure rate, 5% higher than Mayfield.

EPA/DB gets tougher with more attempts and yards, because an incomplete and lack of yards on a pass will drop it. Williams and Burrow are the only players with a top 10 EPA/DB game AND over 300 yards passing. 

 

[adam]

As rookies, in their first 5 games to start their careers, there have only been 4 QBs to have over 1K passing yards, 100 rushing yards, 5+ Passing TDs, less than 5 INTs, with a 60% Comp%.

Caleb became the 4th yesterday, to join Herbert, Minshew, and Watson. Even with Caleb's first few games, he is still on historic pace. 

With his season averages, Williams is on pace for 3,709 passing yards, 17 TD, and 13 INT. He is averaging 274 yds and 1.7 TDs per game over the last 3 games.

Here is what he has to do to challenge some of the team records for passing in the remaining games:

• Average 229 yds per game for the remaining 12 to surpass Erik Kramer's team record of 3,838 passing yds in a season. 
• Average 242 yds per game for the remaining 12 to hit 4K.
• Average 249 yds per game for the remaining 12 to equal Kramer's yards per game average.
• Average 2.1 TDs per game to hit 30

Also, on a side note, Stroud ended up with 4,108 passing yds and 23 TDs last year. Williams would have to average 251 yds per game to hit that number, and only 1.5 passing TDs a game to hit 23. I think the crazy thing is none of those seem outrageous or unrealistic. 

[adam]

Fields highest EPA/DB in his career was +0.38 against SF in 2021 (Week 1). Kind of funny that his best game as a passer was in a monsoon. 

Trubisky's was +0.95 against TB in 2018. Everyone remembers that game. 

[AZ54]

I just watched Jenkins’ film review of the last game.  It’s clear to me that Caleb is starting to play chess with defenses.  His stats against the blitz are outstanding the last two games.  He is starting to put defensive coordinators in a bind.  His ability to see it and release it is frustrating defenders, visible in their body language.  The fact he can do that on a 40yd pass for a TD like on the 2nd TD to Moore is amazing.  Yet there is still meat on the bone.  The best is yet to come.  

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I just watched Jenkins’ film review of the last game.  It’s clear to me that Caleb is starting to play chess with defenses.  His stats against the blitz are outstanding the last two games.  He is starting to put defensive coordinators in a bind.  His ability to see it and release it is frustrating defenders, visible in their body language.  The fact he can do that on a 40yd pass for a TD like on the 2nd TD to Moore is amazing.  Yet there is still meat on the bone.  The best is yet to come.  

Im seeing this the same way you are. I couldn't agree more. It's incredible to see him maturing right before our eyes. Sure he has a way to go, but he's already showing regular habits that we haven't had a QB do at all in many years.

The future is bright and extends out many years.

[adam]

You also have to give credit to Waldron too, outside of that terrible 4th Down call, he called probably his best game to date. The routes are working off each other like they are supposed to. On Moore's first TD over the middle, the little crosser rub helped Moore get open. 

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

You also have to give credit to Waldron too, outside of that terrible 4th Down call, he called probably his best game to date. The routes are working off each other like they are supposed to. On Moore's first TD over the middle, the little crosser rub helped Moore get open. 

I agree. Whatever the cuteness was that he thought he needed early on has just morphed into a straighforward NFL offense.   The coaches deserve credit too for the improved Oline play, which includes backups Pryor and Murray.   We don't even have Bates back yet and already IOL depth looks better than expected.   Braxton has been "ok" the last two weeks but his performance has me getting more and more curious to see what Amegadjie can do.   Jones, to his credit, is still very good on run blocks and keeping the run game going is important for Caleb so I don't see anything happening soon.   

If later in the season we trend toward being a playoff team the coaches will have to consider if Jones can hold up against playoff caliber DEs.   If not, do you start to see if the rookie is a better option somewhere around Wk 11?   By then we should have stability with the IOL however it shakes out.  

[Stinger226]

After the bye we have a ton of people coming back. Kiran will be ready to play, Bates will be ready, Borom will be off IR,Jacob Martin is coming back. I also think Homer is coming back, not sure if he was season ending IR.

I think Waldron was establishing a finese offense that may be the high flying passing offense but CW is not ready for that yet, so he metered down to fit CWs skill level at this time. Adjusted the running game because it wasnt working in its present form. He didnt run a good offense for two yrs and then all of a sudden became dumb when he got here. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Can anybody explain how QBR average is calculated? ESPN still has him at 36.2 for the season, but if you add up his totals and divide by the 5 games, it comes out to 40.9. I don't understand.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Can anybody explain how QBR average is calculated? ESPN still has him at 36.2 for the season, but if you add up his totals and divide by the 5 games, it comes out to 40.9. I don't understand.

It's a secret formula known only to ESPN. Of course the regular stats go into it, but the secret sauce is not public.

[adam]

10 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Can anybody explain how QBR average is calculated? ESPN still has him at 36.2 for the season, but if you add up his totals and divide by the 5 games, it comes out to 40.9. I don't understand.

From what I have seen, the final QBR is weighted for the opponent. So for Week 5, Williams had a raw QBR of 89.7 (1st in NFL), but that was weighted down to 83.9. In comparison, Red Rifle had a raw QBR of 22.3 against the Bears, that was weighted up to a 32.8 because of how good the Bears defense has been.

Then you have to account for snap count per game, which also weights the season average. In Caleb's case, he had 52 attempts his last two weeks in total, which is the same amount he had against IND alone. So the IND game, with so many passes weighs him down right now. His 2nd highest attempts total was against HOU, another lower game. So he needs a few plus games to dilute those lower ones. 

[AZ54]

Listening to DJ Moore’s press conference yesterday he was joking around about how Caleb is bossing  them around telling them how he wants them to run their routes on specific plays.  Caleb confirmed that but focus is to get everyone on the same page.  As DJ said it’s working.  

[adam]

Interesting note about Daniels:

Daniels has thrown 29.0% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage this season (2nd-highest in the NFL) with 21.4% of all his attempts being screen passes, the only quarterback to throw a screen on more than 20% of his passes.

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, adam said:

Interesting note about Daniels:

Daniels has thrown 29.0% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage this season (2nd-highest in the NFL) with 21.4% of all his attempts being screen passes, the only quarterback to throw a screen on more than 20% of his passes.

I think Daniels is smoke and mirrors. His successes definitely say something good about the coaching in Washington, but i think that Daniels will be a bust in the NFL. Ive been saying that since i watched his pre-draft film, and what i saw continues to be the knock on him today - one read guy, doesnt really play the QB position.