Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[adam]

16 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

it's clear the roster has talent and Caleb is a star in the making, but the coaching has been really screwing us. Youre right about his stats.

The only thing Id add is my constant refrain "thats because PFF is random"

PFF is wild but in this case, I think they actually use the raw stat for drops. From other sites, it looks like Allen and Odunze each have 3 drops, Moore has zero apparently. I have no clue what a drop is anymore. I swear there have been passes that have hit Moore in the hands and he flat out dropped it.

[adam]

32-47, 68.1%, 340 yds, 7.2 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 103.1 Rating +33 rushing yards against MIN is one of the top 3 games against the MIN defense this year.  He now has the Bears rookie record for passing in a season.

2nd highest passing game with 340 yards and 3rd 300-yd game. 4th multi-TD pass game. 9 TD and 1 INT since starting 2-4. 

He is up to 214 passing yards a game, which would put him at 3,638 for the season. To get to 3,839 (Bears team record), he would need to average 247 yards per game the rest of the way. He is averaging 285 per game since Brown took over as OC. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

If it weren't for the  6 drops, he would have had close to 400 yards passing, too, on top of everything else he did.

Bears have their QB. Daniels, again, with another bad game today against a rotten team. Nix has played well, but Caleb is still the most talented and best quarterback of this class if you give him respectable coaching. 

[adam]

4 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

If it weren't for the  6 drops, he would have had close to 400 yards passing, too, on top of everything else he did.

Bears have their QB. Daniels, again, with another bad game today against a rotten team. Nix has played well, but Caleb is still the most talented and best quarterback of this class if you give him respectable coaching. 

Yeah, it's crazy with the drops. Also, if he targeted Allen less, his numbers and comp% would be way higher.

He now has 3x 300-yd games in his first 11 games. Fields has 2x in his entire career. Daniels has 1x and it was against the Bears and aided by the Hail Mary, he had 326 that game. Nix only has 1x 300-yd game (307). Maye has zero. 

So Caleb has the two highest passing yard games (364 and 340) for all the rookies this year and more 300-yd games than all the other rookies combined (3-2). 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

If it weren't for the  6 drops, he would have had close to 400 yards passing, too, on top of everything else he did.

Bears have their QB. Daniels, again, with another bad game today against a rotten team. Nix has played well, but Caleb is still the most talented and best quarterback of this class if you give him respectable coaching. 

We agree so much. Even just that Keenan dime on sideline that ended up being just out. He was same good - a couple dangerous ones and maybe 1-2 that got away but they were literally moving ball around all game! 

[adam]

5 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

We agree so much. Even just that Keenan dime on sideline that ended up being just out. He was same good - a couple dangerous ones and maybe 1-2 that got away but they were literally moving ball around all game! 

He had that ridiculous throw to Allen between two defenders, then followed it up to that silly pass down the sideline to Swift. Just like last week against GB, he was electric in the 4th Q.

 

[adam]

Some underlying good signs:

Week 12 - 3rd fastest TTT while the Offense had 8th best EPA/P, against a Flores led defense.

This follows Week 11, which saw the Bears have the 2nd fastest TTT, and 6th best EPA/P.

To me that shows it is sustainable. If those numbers were grossly different from each other, I would say that there was some randomness involved. That is very consistent for 8+ quarters now.

Can you imagine this offense against IND, HOU, NE, or WAS? The Bears probably win all 4 of those games with this offense, when the defense was playing stout. Such a bummer.

[adam]

Not that PFF holds much weight, but Williams posted a 74.8 PFF Grade for the MIN game. That is his 4th game over 70 (great games), and his only 2 games under 50 (bad games) were Weeks 1 and 2. 

[adam]

Since Week 3, in 9 games, Caleb is 196-306, 64.1%, 2,089, 6.83 Y/A, 11 TD, 3 INT, which averages to 232 yds a game, which also equates to 3,946 yds, 21 TD and 6 INT for a full season.

[BearFan PHX]

44 minutes ago, adam said:

Since Week 3, in 9 games, Caleb is 196-306, 64.1%, 2,089, 6.83 Y/A, 11 TD, 3 INT, which averages to 232 yds a game, which also equates to 3,946 yds, 21 TD and 6 INT for a full season.

and all that with awful coaching except for the OC the last two weeks. We have our QB. Finally.

[Bears4Ever_34]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Since Week 3, in 9 games, Caleb is 196-306, 64.1%, 2,089, 6.83 Y/A, 11 TD, 3 INT, which averages to 232 yds a game, which also equates to 3,946 yds, 21 TD and 6 INT for a full season.

Maintaining that 2:1 TD/INT ratio and keeping his interceptions in the single digits would be a nice achievement for a rookie season.

[adam]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

and all that with awful coaching except for the OC the last two weeks. We have our QB. Finally.

Terrible coaching, game plan, O-Line play, receiver drops. This dude has overcame a lot. 

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, adam said:

Terrible coaching, game plan, O-Line play, receiver drops. This dude has overcame a lot. 

Caleb Williams IS the haul!

[ASHKUM BEAR]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Terrible coaching, game plan, O-Line play, receiver drops. This dude has overcame a lot. 

So many needs to build this team up.  Caleb needs a speedster with hands to replace Allen.  2 or 3 or even 4 stud oline. 3T, Safety, CB has to be considered since Stevenson lost the juice. 

[adam]

49 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

So many needs to build this team up.  Caleb needs a speedster with hands to replace Allen.  2 or 3 or even 4 stud oline. 3T, Safety, CB has to be considered since Stevenson looks his juice. 

McConkey would've been cool. 😐

The Chargers literally did the opposite of the Bears and look at them now. They signed Harbaugh, got draft picks for Williams and Allen (instead of giving up picks for them like the Bears did for Allen), drafted Alt and McConkey (I love Odunze, but the Bears could've traded out of that spot for a top tier OG/OC and WR + another pick), and decided to keep Mack, who they traded for with the Bears for a 2nd rounder. 

The Bears have to fix the trenches with quality depth on both lines. The defense may be in for a change with a different DC and different style defense next year. The defense may look vastly different than it does today. 

[ChileBear]

24 minutes ago, adam said:

The Bears have to fix the trenches with quality depth on both lines. The defense may be in for a change with a different DC and different style defense next year. The defense may look vastly different than it does today. 

God, I sure hope it looks different next year. If not, we're not stopping anyone, again.

[AZ54]

I really believe there should be fireworks in Chicago to celebrate the arrival of a legitimate NFL QB to our beloved.  Last year's games against the Vikings were both a complete @#$% show on offense.  This year with a banged up Oline Caleb absolutely lit them up and it wasn't easy gains via blown coverages or missed tackles.   Watching the breakdowns there's just throw after throw where I'd say there is no way I'd ever make that read .... but Caleb was right and he fit it into those tight windows.  He's just on a different level.  

There is much angst about the coaches but we all know the harsh reality of the NFL where finding an elite QB is by far the most difficult thing to do.   Coaches know what it is on film and, unlike 3 years ago, the good ones will be calling Chicago looking for work this year.  

Poles is getting some heat too, deservedly so, but IMO you simply don't dismiss the guy who got you the deal of the century in a trade and then followed it up with the first elite QB to play in Chicago in decades.   A lot of energy, time, and focus went into the QB position over the last two seasons.  That is out the window and now once the coaches are in place we just need to focus on IOL, IDL this year.   

I feel good.  

[ChileBear]

37 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I really believe there should be fireworks in Chicago to celebrate the arrival of a legitimate NFL QB to our beloved.  Last year's games against the Vikings were both a complete @#$% show on offense.  This year with a banged up Oline Caleb absolutely lit them up and it wasn't easy gains via blown coverages or missed tackles.   Watching the breakdowns there's just throw after throw where I'd say there is no way I'd ever make that read .... but Caleb was right and he fit it into those tight windows.  He's just on a different level.  

There is much angst about the coaches but we all know the harsh reality of the NFL where finding an elite QB is by far the most difficult thing to do.   Coaches know what it is on film and, unlike 3 years ago, the good ones will be calling Chicago looking for work this year.  

Poles is getting some heat too, deservedly so, but IMO you simply don't dismiss the guy who got you the deal of the century in a trade and then followed it up with the first elite QB to play in Chicago in decades.   A lot of energy, time, and focus went into the QB position over the last two seasons.  That is out the window and now once the coaches are in place we just need to focus on IOL, IDL this year.   

I feel good.  

A Friggin Men!

[Bears4Ever_34]

 

I knew he had to be close to some sort of record, but I didn't know Kyler Murray was the record holder. I thought CJ Stroud broke it last year.

 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I really believe there should be fireworks in Chicago to celebrate the arrival of a legitimate NFL QB to our beloved.  Last year's games against the Vikings were both a complete @#$% show on offense.  This year with a banged up Oline Caleb absolutely lit them up and it wasn't easy gains via blown coverages or missed tackles.   Watching the breakdowns there's just throw after throw where I'd say there is no way I'd ever make that read .... but Caleb was right and he fit it into those tight windows.  He's just on a different level.  

There is much angst about the coaches but we all know the harsh reality of the NFL where finding an elite QB is by far the most difficult thing to do.   Coaches know what it is on film and, unlike 3 years ago, the good ones will be calling Chicago looking for work this year.  

Poles is getting some heat too, deservedly so, but IMO you simply don't dismiss the guy who got you the deal of the century in a trade and then followed it up with the first elite QB to play in Chicago in decades.   A lot of energy, time, and focus went into the QB position over the last two seasons.  That is out the window and now once the coaches are in place we just need to focus on IOL, IDL this year.   

I feel good.  

Yeah man, I'm totally with you on Caleb. He is probably already the best Bears QB of the modern era. And it is the hardest thing to get right. Finding coaches is much easier.

I dont give Poles as much credit. The deal with Carolina was incredible for sure, but that was mostly a function of being the worst team in the NFL two years ago, and not being ready to get rid of Justin Fields. Neither of those things is about Poles' brilliance. It's mosre about him holding on to Justin, and us sucking during the teardown year.

I truly believe any lawyer could get the same deal from Carolina, if he was instructed to trade out. Was keeping Justin over CJ Stroud the right move there? Probably not. It only looks great because everything went right and we got Caleb. In many outcomes, we would have Maye or Daniels or something this year instead, if we hadnt gotten the first pick, and there is no way youd know youd have that the year before. So would you rather have Maye, Daniels or Stroud?

Poles hasnt been terrible, maybe he doesnt particularly deserve to get fired, if you judge him in fairness. But I am more worried about Caleb's development than being fair to Poles, and he made the decision to hold on to Eberflus this year. He also signed off on Getsy and approved Waldron over better more proven options.

Like he's good at picking DBs, but not as good picking OL. So he's not so great at picking coaches, and this upcoming coaching decision is going to make or break our franchise for a decade.

I like our scouting department. I want someone other than Poles picking the next HC. I HATE that we are now counting on Kevin Warren to do this when he isnt qualified and it's not in his job description.

What IS in Warren's job description is firing the GM and making the choice of his replacement. It may not be fair, or warranted, but the decision ahead is so important to get right, and he is not who we should have making it. That's why Id fire him.

 

[adam]

8 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

 

I knew he had to be close to some sort of record, but I didn't know Kyler Murray was the record holder. I thought CJ Stroud broke it last year.

 

Stroud's record is for the beginning of his career. He threw 192 passed before his first INT. Which also means he has thrown all 14 of his INTs in the last 703 passing attempts. 

It is wild how pedestrian Stroud looks this year after adding Diggs and getting Dell back plus adding Mixon in the backfield. He is down in basically every category and up in INTs. 

[adam]

10 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I really believe there should be fireworks in Chicago to celebrate the arrival of a legitimate NFL QB to our beloved.  Last year's games against the Vikings were both a complete @#$% show on offense.  This year with a banged up Oline Caleb absolutely lit them up and it wasn't easy gains via blown coverages or missed tackles.   Watching the breakdowns there's just throw after throw where I'd say there is no way I'd ever make that read .... but Caleb was right and he fit it into those tight windows.  He's just on a different level.  

There is much angst about the coaches but we all know the harsh reality of the NFL where finding an elite QB is by far the most difficult thing to do.   Coaches know what it is on film and, unlike 3 years ago, the good ones will be calling Chicago looking for work this year.  

Poles is getting some heat too, deservedly so, but IMO you simply don't dismiss the guy who got you the deal of the century in a trade and then followed it up with the first elite QB to play in Chicago in decades.   A lot of energy, time, and focus went into the QB position over the last two seasons.  That is out the window and now once the coaches are in place we just need to focus on IOL, IDL this year.   

I feel good.  

I agree with everything except for the Poles comment. He didn't even talk to Daniels, and Williams was pretty much a no-brainer pick. The trade that got them the pick was also an easy button. Credit for just doing your job is like a participation trophy.

To be a truly successful franchise, you have to be better than the norm. I don't know where Poles has done that yet holistically. Coaching hires have been subpar, free agents have been mixed, and draft picks for the most part have played only to their draft status and not beyond. For every Dexter there is a Stevenson or Pickens. For Caleb, there is Velus.

In the big picture, Poles has done nothing spectacular that makes you think he can build a long term winner. I am assuming that he doesn't get fired (unless they lose out), so if he addresses the trenches and doesn't draft a ILB and a TE in the first 3 rounds, then I will be ok with keeping him. The fear is we lose Cunningham this offseason and he was the one keeping Poles in check.

[Stinger226]

17 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I really believe there should be fireworks in Chicago to celebrate the arrival of a legitimate NFL QB to our beloved.  Last year's games against the Vikings were both a complete @#$% show on offense.  This year with a banged up Oline Caleb absolutely lit them up and it wasn't easy gains via blown coverages or missed tackles.   Watching the breakdowns there's just throw after throw where I'd say there is no way I'd ever make that read .... but Caleb was right and he fit it into those tight windows.  He's just on a different level.  

There is much angst about the coaches but we all know the harsh reality of the NFL where finding an elite QB is by far the most difficult thing to do.   Coaches know what it is on film and, unlike 3 years ago, the good ones will be calling Chicago looking for work this year.  

Poles is getting some heat too, deservedly so, but IMO you simply don't dismiss the guy who got you the deal of the century in a trade and then followed it up with the first elite QB to play in Chicago in decades.   A lot of energy, time, and focus went into the QB position over the last two seasons.  That is out the window and now once the coaches are in place we just need to focus on IOL, IDL this year.   

I feel good.  

Im in lock step with you and have been taking a pounding for giving Poles any kind of support. I've been a Bears fan since 1965 and  finally see the bright light at the end of the tunnel. We have the assets to fix the OL and DL , Poles said he would take 4-5 yrs to get the SB competing team, not 2 and 1/2 yrs. I believed him. 

A great coach will not be hard to find, they will line up to coach a team with Caleb and lots of weapons. As you stated.

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, adam said:

I agree with everything except for the Poles comment. He didn't even talk to Daniels, and Williams was pretty much a no-brainer pick. The trade that got them the pick was also an easy button. Credit for just doing your job is like a participation trophy.

To be a truly successful franchise, you have to be better than the norm. I don't know where Poles has done that yet holistically. Coaching hires have been subpar, free agents have been mixed, and draft picks for the most part have played only to their draft status and not beyond. For every Dexter there is a Stevenson or Pickens. For Caleb, there is Velus.

In the big picture, Poles has done nothing spectacular that makes you think he can build a long term winner. I am assuming that he doesn't get fired (unless they lose out), so if he addresses the trenches and doesn't draft a ILB and a TE in the first 3 rounds, then I will be ok with keeping him. The fear is we lose Cunningham this offseason and he was the one keeping Poles in check.

Its much more pleasant living with hope than constant anxiety but that's your choice. 

[adam]

56 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Its much more pleasant living with hope than constant anxiety but that's your choice. 

I am an eternal optimist actually. I want and hope everything turns out positive. It just feels like we have seen this movie before.

You have about 10 years on me as a fan, the earliest I can remember were late 70's Payton games. 

This will be the 12th season since Lovie left and the Bears have 1 season with a winning record since that point. Then between Ditka and Lovie there were 11 seasons and the Bears had 3 winning seasons. So 4 winning seasons out of 23 without Lovie or Ditka in the last 40+ years. 

The Bears are one of the bottom teams since 2013. Only JAX, NYJ, CLE, NYG, and WAS have a worse Win% over that period. If you shrink it to just the Poles/Flus era, the Bears are 31st in Win% at .311. Only CAR is worse at .267.