Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[Bears4Ever_34]

8 hours ago, adam said:

Stroud's record is for the beginning of his career. He threw 192 passed before his first INT. Which also means he has thrown all 14 of his INTs in the last 703 passing attempts. 

It is wild how pedestrian Stroud looks this year after adding Diggs and getting Dell back plus adding Mixon in the backfield. He is down in basically every category and up in INTs. 

Ah, yeah, that makes sense.

Speaking of Stroud:

 

I still have high hopes for Stroud, but his struggles make you realize that nobody is a finished product, even after 1 great season. Same can be said for his OC, Bobby Slowik, who was a hot name in last year's cycle. Consistency is really important for coaches, too. 

[adam]

@CALEBcsw is one of 3 QBs in @NFL history to have 2,200 Passing Yards, 300 Rushing Yards, 11 Passing TDs, with fewer than 10 INTs in their first 11 games. 

@RGIII was the first QB to ever do it (2012), and Kyler Murray in 2019. 

Williams has 2,356 Passing Yards, 339 Rushing Yards, 11 TD, and 5 INT.

Daniels only had 10 Passing TDs in his first 11 games. 

Nix only had 295 Rushing Yards in his first 11 games.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Ah, yeah, that makes sense.

Speaking of Stroud:

 

I still have high hopes for Stroud, but his struggles make you realize that nobody is a finished product, even after 1 great season. Same can be said for his OC, Bobby Slowik, who was a hot name in last year's cycle. Consistency is really important for coaches, too. 

Having a year of tape really makes a difference. Love already has 11 INTs in 9 games. He had 11 all last season. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I am an eternal optimist actually. I want and hope everything turns out positive. It just feels like we have seen this movie before.

You have about 10 years on me as a fan, the earliest I can remember were late 70's Payton games. 

This will be the 12th season since Lovie left and the Bears have 1 season with a winning record since that point. Then between Ditka and Lovie there were 11 seasons and the Bears had 3 winning seasons. So 4 winning seasons out of 23 without Lovie or Ditka in the last 40+ years. 

The Bears are one of the bottom teams since 2013. Only JAX, NYJ, CLE, NYG, and WAS have a worse Win% over that period. If you shrink it to just the Poles/Flus era, the Bears are 31st in Win% at .311. Only CAR is worse at .267.

Since loyality is onne of my faults, you understand why I look for anything positive to grab on to. We are very close to being relivant which will happen next year , just dont feel like selling the house because of a leaky roof and bad heat system. It will be fixed. 

[Daventry]

9 hours ago, adam said:

I agree with everything except for the Poles comment. He didn't even talk to Daniels, and Williams was pretty much a no-brainer pick. The trade that got them the pick was also an easy button. Credit for just doing your job is like a participation trophy.

To be a truly successful franchise, you have to be better than the norm. I don't know where Poles has done that yet holistically. Coaching hires have been subpar, free agents have been mixed, and draft picks for the most part have played only to their draft status and not beyond. For every Dexter there is a Stevenson or Pickens. For Caleb, there is Velus.

In the big picture, Poles has done nothing spectacular that makes you think he can build a long term winner. I am assuming that he doesn't get fired (unless they lose out), so if he addresses the trenches and doesn't draft a ILB and a TE in the first 3 rounds, then I will be ok with keeping him. The fear is we lose Cunningham this offseason and he was the one keeping Poles in check.

I agree, and feel foolish now that I was so convinced Poles was the answer.  He is better than Pace, but then how much does that say?  Overall, his record with personnel is mediocre and picking coaches is poor.

[adam]

14 hours ago, Daventry said:

I agree, and feel foolish now that I was so convinced Poles was the answer.  He is better than Pace, but then how much does that say?  Overall, his record with personnel is mediocre and picking coaches is poor.

Yeah, I think they are less likely to fire Poles after 3 years because just like with Pace, he got a 2nd HC hire after Fox. So Poles will get one more shot at a HC, but then just like Pace/Nagy, they have 3 years to get this right because Williams rookie deal will be coming to an end and this team will look vastly different.

However, it just seems like the same trend. Guess how many years Fox got before they fired him? 3 years. Flus is in his 3rd year.

The same things were being said about Fox early on, setting the culture, blah blah blah. There were also questions about his Coordinators and coaches too. Then Pace brings in Nagy, but by then Pace was in his 4th year of the rebuild, so rightfully so go 12-4. The rebuild should've been over. Then they follow that up with back to back 8-8s and a 6-11 and both Pace and Nagy are gone.

I still can't believe they fired Lovie after going 10-6. Outside of his first season as HC, Lovie's worst season was 7-9. It was never the defense, it was always the offense, they couldn't get the OC right. I miss those years. 

[Stinger226]

Lovie deserved better. Constantly changing regimes has got us nowhere. We can all see Flus isnt a good HC, Poles ( first time GM) sees that to. Lets let the dust settle on this yr and he has brought in a lot of talent since he got here. Of course he has made mistakes, w/o looking, I doubt any new GM gets a 100 on his first test.

I think he is still the guy that got a (golden ring) trade that acquired us this. Stevenson is in a brain funk from the Washington play right now but everyone one of these picks could be pro bowlers, if not at least core team players. 

Drafted CW, could have a got a haul from trading the #1 pick again and stayed with Fields which would have given us a better record. Turned the team over to him knowing he would have growing pains with a rookie QB.  

He has set this team up for consistant winning in the next 4 yrs of Caleb..This yr sucks but it will arrive next yr. 

Great cap space and (as of right now) pick 12-40-43-74. He will fix the Ol and DLhttps://www.thedraftnetwork.com/2024/11/26/bears-mock-draft-november-2024#google_vignette Does this fix our problems?

 

[adam]

Way too much pressure for a backup D-Line, that was not a good game for the O-Line. They got pushed back on every play while our DLine was getting pushed back. Lost in the trenches again.

Caleb thru for 256 yards and 3 TDs, 0 INT, now at 2612 Passing yards with 14 TD and 5 INT thru 12 games.  Daniels has 2,613 thru 12 games with 12 TD and 5 INT. Nix has 2548 yds, 16 TD, and 6 INT thru 12 games. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

5 minutes ago, adam said:

Way too much pressure for a backup D-Line, that was not a good game for the O-Line. They got pushed back on every play while our DLine was getting pushed back. Lost in the trenches again.

Caleb thru for 256 yards and 3 TDs, 0 INT, now at 2612 Passing yards with 14 TD and 5 INT thru 12 games.  Daniels has 2,613 thru 12 games with 12 TD and 5 INT. Nix has 2548 yds, 16 TD, and 6 INT thru 12 games. 

All neck to neck, this might come down to the only stat that really matters,  Wins.

[Stinger226]

We have the generational QB, now build around him. Coaches will line up to coach here. Bring in Jon Gruden as an intermin coach to finish the year, after getting black listed, he will absolutely do that.

[adam]

19 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

All neck to neck, this might come down to the only stat that really matters,  Wins.

Williams is not even in consideration for ORoY while Daniels is the favorite, strictly due to wins that are beyond Williams control. 

[adam]

Caleb needs to average 245 yards in his last 5 games to break Erik Kramer's team record of 3,838 passing yards. He now has 14 Passing TDs and is on pace for 20 TDs. 

He has averaged 276 passing yards a game with 5 TD and 0 INT over the last 3 games where Brown was the OC. He has faced GB, MIN, and DET, all top 10 defenses. If he averages this same amount for the last 5 games, he would have 3,990. So 4K is still in play. He needs one big game and he should hit it.

[Stinger226]

35 minutes ago, adam said:

Caleb needs to average 245 yards in his last 5 games to break Erik Kramer's team record of 3,838 passing yards. He now has 14 Passing TDs and is on pace for 20 TDs. 

He has averaged 276 passing yards a game with 5 TD and 0 INT over the last 3 games where Brown was the OC. He has faced GB, MIN, and DET, all top 10 defenses. If he averages this same amount for the last 5 games, he would have 3,990. So 4K is still in play. He needs one big game and he should hit it.

Every game going forward should look like this. That should hit 4000

[adam]

Caleb had a 66.1 QBR against DET and now is over the magically 50.0 boundary at 50.5. 

The highest QB output since Cutler was Trubisky in 2018 with 3,223 yards and 24 TDs. Williams should surpass the yards and has an outside shot at the TDs.

 

[adam]

Caleb's QBR in his last 6 games:

Last 3 with Brown:

84.3, 77.4, 66.1

Last 3 with Waldron:

35.2, 19.9, 13.1

[BearFan PHX]

[Stinger226]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Obviously putting Caleb in the best position to win is the most important aspect of this offseason. It wouldnt bother me if he ends up our HC. It would be nice to have a 5 game winning streak at the end the season to prove he's the man.

[adam]

Last 3 games, 4 rookie QBs, two are getting ORoY consideration, can you guess who:

A. 71-110, 64.5%, 874 Yds, 7 TD, 2 INT, 14 Rushing Yards (Total Yards 888)
B. 75-117, 64.1%, 827 Yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, 142 Rushing Yards (Total Yards 969)
C. 75-106, 70.8%, 742 Yds, 4 TD, 3 INT, 112 Rushing Yards, 2 FL (Total Yards 854)
D. 72-100, 72.0%, 672 Yds, 6 TD, 4 INT, 126 Rushing Yards, 2 TD (Total Yards 798)

I thought it was pretty wild that all 4 were within 4 completions of each other. The only other thing that stood out was one QB was clean the last 3 games while the other 3 had at least 2 INTs, and one QB had 2 rushing TDs while the other 3 had zero. 

If you take away the names, I don't know how Williams is not in the discussion with what he is doing lately. It goes to show that wins have more of an impact on the awards than raw stats.

[adam]

Nix:

• 11 TD, 0 INT vs LVR, ATL, CAR
• 6 TD, 8 INT vs everyone else 🤔
• No one is talking about this
• Zero wins against winning teams, why is this not discussed more as well?

Daniels:

• WAS is 3-2 when he throws an INT. All other QBs have a losing record when throwing an INT.
• Last 5 wins: TEN, NYG, CHI, CAR, CLE who have a combined 15-45 record. 
• His other wins: ARZ, CIN, and NYG again lol.
• Zero wins against winning teams, why is this not discussed more? Interesting trend for rookie QBs.

Maye: 

• 5 straight games with a TD and INT (1-4, only win vs Bears lol).
• The Bears game is Maye's only win as a starter (where he finished the game) 

 

Just to clarify, no rookie QB has a win against a team that is currently over .500.

[adam]

Maye has only played one winning team, Daniels only two.

Maye 0-1 vs winning teams
Daniels 0-3 vs winning teams
Nix 0-5 vs winning teams
Williams 0-5 vs winning teams

[adam]

🤔🤔Strength of Victory:

DEN SoV .302
CHI SoV .292
NE SoV .292 (w/ Maye starting)
WAS SoV .281

 

[adam]

Stats vs teams with a winning record:

Player	G	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Y/A	Y/C
Drake Maye	1	20	33	60.6	243	3	2	88.3	7.4	12.2
Jayden Daniels	3	63	101	62.4	662	3	1	87.1	6.6	10.5
Caleb Williams	5	108	178	60.7	1132	5	2	83.8	6.4	10.5
Bo Nix	5	106	173	61.3	1038	4	6	71.4	6	9.8

[Bears4Ever_34]

Caleb is on pace to have the best all-around statistical season of any Bears quarterback ever as a rookie. He won't break the TD or yardage records for a single season, but a 20/7, 3700 yards, 4000+ total yards season he's projected to have (as of now) would be, in my opinion, the most impressive season in franchise history. No Bears quarterback has ever gotten close to a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, and Caleb is right there.