Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[adam]

49 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I thought Love had an intercetion?

He hasn't thrown one since he played us 4 weeks ago. Goff had one though. 

[adam]

An interesting note in the rookie QB comparisons. Not only do they not talk about opponents, but they don't even mention things like pressure rate.

Of the QBs with at least 10 starts, Bo Nix (27.3%) has the 3rd lowest QBP and Jayden Daniels (29.2%) has the 6th lowest. On the flip side, only 2 QBs with 10 starts have a higher QBP than Williams (37.6%).

[adam]

That was one of Caleb's worst games of the season. QBR of 32.5, 3rd lowest of all QBs, only O'Connell and Levis were lower. He is up to 2,746 Passing Yards, 16 TD, and 5 INT thru 13 games. 

Nix 2,842, 17 TD, 8 INT
Daniels 2,819, 15 TD, 6 INT
Williams 2,746, 16 TD, 5 INT 

So all 3 rookies are within 96 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INT.

The most alarming thing is his sacks, now up to 56 thru 13 games, a franchise record with 4 games left. The next closest QB in the NFL has 41 sacks (Stroud).  So Caleb is on pace for over 70 sacks, which is insane. I would say at least a 1/3 of them are on him at this point. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

QBR is really annoying. I've seen guys throw multiple interceptions and barely complete 60% of their passes and somehow have higher QBR's than when Caleb throws 2 TD's and 0 INT's and completes over 70% of his passes. The numbers always seem random. I never know what to expect.

His best game of the season was clearly the Vikings game where he was throwing the ball all over the field, but yet the Packers game is ranked higher, despite less yards, less touchdowns, and less big time throws. He played well in that game too, but you're not going to convince me it was a better performance than his game against Minnesota.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

51 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

QBR is really annoying. I've seen guys throw multiple interceptions and barely complete 60% of their passes and somehow have higher QBR's than when Caleb throws 2 TD's and 0 INT's and completes over 70% of his passes. The numbers always seem random. I never know what to expect.

His best game of the season was clearly the Vikings game where he was throwing the ball all over the field, but yet the Packers game is ranked higher, despite less yards, less touchdowns, and less big time throws. He played well in that game too, but you're not going to convince me it was a better performance than his game against Minnesota.

I think he gets hammered for the sacks - that is my presumption. There were also dropped balls - I think Moore had one early in the game - instead of 3rd and short its 3rd and long.  Little things but go a long way.  I'm presuming some of the sacks though he is getting his QBR hammered on.  Or maybe the pick that went through the hands early in the game counts as a pick in QBR? But it all gets pretty subjective.  

[Bears4Ever_34]

17 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think he gets hammered for the sacks - that is my presumption. There were also dropped balls - I think Moore had one early in the game - instead of 3rd and short its 3rd and long.  Little things but go a long way.  I'm presuming some of the sacks though he is getting his QBR hammered on.  Or maybe the pick that went through the hands early in the game counts as a pick in QBR? But it all gets pretty subjective.  

Yeah, I think they just see the raw numbers and automatically dock the quarterback. Even the turnover was pretty fluky.

[adam]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think he gets hammered for the sacks - that is my presumption. There were also dropped balls - I think Moore had one early in the game - instead of 3rd and short its 3rd and long.  Little things but go a long way.  I'm presuming some of the sacks though he is getting his QBR hammered on.  Or maybe the pick that went through the hands early in the game counts as a pick in QBR? But it all gets pretty subjective.  

His QBR is all sacks. He would be a top 10 QB without the sacks for QBR. 

[BearFan PHX]

8 hours ago, adam said:

His QBR is all sacks. He would be a top 10 QB without the sacks for QBR. 

we should get an offensive line then!

[adam]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

we should get an offensive line then!

OLine and better route schemes. I have never seen so many receivers within 10 yards of each at the same point in route tree. Like you have to know that one defender can basically cover all of them, let alone 3 or 4. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

56 minutes ago, adam said:

OLine and better route schemes. I have never seen so many receivers within 10 yards of each at the same point in route tree. Like you have to know that one defender can basically cover all of them, let alone 3 or 4. 

And this is with "Coach" Keenan Allen and DJ Moore, two journeyman wrs.   I am not sure how they would allow this.  You would think they would have a voice. 

[adam]

Caleb Williams joins RGIII as the only QBs in NFL history to have 2,700 Passing Yards, 16 Passing TDs, less than 6 INTs, and 400 Rushing Yards in their first 13 starts. 

So if he stays on this pace, he would be the only rookie QB in NFL history to hit 3,600 Passing Yards, 20+ Passing TDs, with less than 7 INTs and over 500 Rushing Yards. Daniels could join him but he can't throw more than 1 INT the rest of the way and would need at least 5 Passing TDs. Nix already has 8 INTs and would need a lot more rushing yards.

Williams needs 214 passing yards per game, 1 Passing TD per game, and to not throw more than 2 more INTs in the last 4 games and rush for 24 yards per game.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Caleb Williams joins RGIII as the only QBs in NFL history to have 2,700 Passing Yards, 16 Passing TDs, less than 6 INTs, and 400 Rushing Yards in their first 13 starts. 

So if he stays on this pace, he would be the only rookie QB in NFL history to hit 3,600 Passing Yards, 20+ Passing TDs, with less than 7 INTs and over 500 Rushing Yards. Daniels could join him but he can't throw more than 1 INT the rest of the way and would need at least 5 Passing TDs. Nix already has 8 INTs and would need a lot more rushing yards.

Williams needs 214 passing yards per game, 1 Passing TD per game, and to not throw more than 2 more INTs in the last 4 games and rush for 24 yards per game.

Did you catch Kurt Warners thought on Caleb's low INTs.  He said he is playing too safe and needs to take more risks.  The score echoed this.   I screamed nooo. 

[adam]

On 12/11/2024 at 5:46 PM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Did you catch Kurt Warners thought on Caleb's low INTs.  He said he is playing too safe and needs to take more risks.  The score echoed this.   I screamed nooo. 

If you watch all the sacks there are very few plays were anyone is open or at least in his progression. What seems to happen is his 3rd or 4th read may be open but because of the pressure he might be at his 2nd read by then.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

If you watch all the sacks there are very few plays were anyone is open or at least in his progression. What seems to happen is his 3rd or 4th read may be open but because of the pressure he might be at his 2nd read by then.

In longer routes i get taking longer to go thru progressions but what bothers me is he rarely dumbs off to his outlet players when he gets rushed, that's what they're there for.

[adam]

So it is clear that QB wins are all that matter. Bo Nix threw for 130 yards with 3 TD and 3 INT, but won 31-13. Drake Maye threw for 202 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and rushed for 1 TD and lost 30-17. Daniels threw for 226 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT and won 20-19.  

For rookie Pass Yardage, Daniels now has 3,045 and Nix has 2,972. Caleb has 2,746. So he needs 226 to tie Nix and 299 to tie Daniels. 

For TD Passes, Nix has 20 with 11 INT, Daniels has 17 and 6 while Caleb has 16-5. So if Caleb can throw 2-3 with over 250 yards, he would be right there with 3K passing yards and 18-19 TDs, but because the Bears keep losing, Daniels is the run away OROY. 

[adam]

At least for Daniels and Nix, they are very schedule dependent, but no one will talk about that:

DEN is 8-0 against .500 or worse teams and 1-5 against winning teams. DEN's signature win is against TB (8-6).

WAS is 9-1 against .500 or worse teams and 0-4 against winning teams. WAS signature win is against ARZ (7-7).

CHI is 3-4 against .500 or worse teams and 1-5 against winning teams. CHI signature win is against LAR (8-6).

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, adam said:

At least for Daniels and Nix, they are very schedule dependent, but no one will talk about that:

DEN is 8-0 against .500 or worse teams and 1-5 against winning teams. DEN's signature win is against TB (8-6).

WAS is 9-1 against .500 or worse teams and 0-4 against winning teams. WAS signature win is against ARZ (7-7).

CHI is 3-4 against .500 or worse teams and 1-5 against winning teams. CHI signature win is against LAR (8-6).

 

 

adam, thanks again for the many awesome stats you compile here. I wouldnt see these anywhere else.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

adam, thanks again for the many awesome stats you compile here. I wouldnt see these anywhere else.

No problem, and it's odd that no one is talking about this. WAS and DEN have beat no one. Caleb and the Bears have had a tougher road with comparable stats so far, yet Daniels is the runaway favorite for OROY. 

[Stinger226]

9 minutes ago, adam said:

No problem, and it's odd that no one is talking about this. WAS and DEN have beat no one. Caleb and the Bears have had a tougher road with comparable stats so far, yet Daniels is the runaway favorite for OROY. 

Add into it the disfunction of an OC and HC, i would say he has did great.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

No problem, and it's odd that no one is talking about this. WAS and DEN have beat no one. Caleb and the Bears have had a tougher road with comparable stats so far, yet Daniels is the runaway favorite for OROY. 

narratives and media are often far off of reality. If you win games, they notice. But they arent truth tellers, they're narrative chasers. They'd rather talk about if someones father was a champion arm wrestler for example, or whether someone paints their nails than arm angles and mechanics. That's just what sells to the masses. But it doesnt take the place of actual analysis.

If we start winning, theyll unfairly talk well about us too LOL

[adam]

After throwing for over 300 against them last time, I really thought Caleb would hit at least 200 passing yards. 

He has a QBR of 25.3. So after 3 stellar games against GB, MIN, and DET, Caleb has fallen off the cliff again the last two games. He has played very polarizing this year. He either has a QBR over 60 or below 45. 5 games over 60 and 9 under 45. Some of this is on play calling, some on the O-Line, but a good chunk of this is on him. For me it seems like his accuracy is off, and they haven't even attempted any passes beyond 20 yards in several weeks. Like how can we be in Week 15 and the QB and WRs are not on the same sheet of music?

[Bears4Ever_34]

25 QBR yesterday is such bullshit. He had 6 drops in that game and was only sacked twice. Once again, no picks and the fumble was on the LT for whiffing. freak QBR.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

15 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

25 QBR yesterday is such bullshit. He had 6 drops in that game and was only sacked twice. Once again, no picks and the fumble was on the LT for whiffing. freak QBR.

Williams had a TD go through Odunze hands who tried to catch the ball at his helmet.  How many Allen drops.  If half of the throws are caught, he has at least 220 yds, 2 TDs.

No mention of meathead Kramer who has screwed the Bears out of 2 TDs now also.  His goal line fumble was the start of the free fall and not checking in as eligible?  That's worse than Velus learning about ball spin coming off a kickers foot.

[adam]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Williams had a TD go through Odunze hands who tried to catch the ball at his helmet.  How many Allen drops.  If half of the throws are caught, he has at least 220 yds, 2 TDs.

No mention of meathead Kramer who has screwed the Bears out of 2 TDs now also.  His goal line fumble was the start of the free fall and not checking in as eligible?  That's worse than Velus learning about ball spin coming off a kickers foot.

 

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

25 QBR yesterday is such bullshit. He had 6 drops in that game and was only sacked twice. Once again, no picks and the fumble was on the LT for whiffing. freak QBR.

Yeah it is unfortunate and that is why everything needs context and you can't use one metric. His QB Rating was 86.9 and is now 87.7 on the season. He has 2,937 passing yards, 17 TD and 5 INT with 3 games to play. He should hit 3,500 passing yards and 20 TDs, which would be a top 10 rookie season for a QB. 

[adam]

Thru 14 games, this is where Caleb ranks amongst qualified QBs:

2nd INT%
4th 10+ Yard Rushes (QB)
6th QB Pressure Rate
7th Attempts
7th Rushing Yards (QB)
13th Completions
T-15th TD Passes
19th Passing Yards
23rd Passer Rating
26th QBR
26th EPA/DB
29th PFF
29th Comp%
29th CPOE
34th Sacks (last)
40th NFELO
 

I would have hoped his QBR and Comp% was a little higher and he had a few less sacks. He has 3 more games to improve on some of these numbers. I was hoping for one more big game from him to push him ahead of Daniels and Nix.