Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I just think of all those dropped balls, especially from an all pro, Keenan Allen.  If the Bears had more competent blockers, we would probably get to see Kmet more involved.  Poles has one year to make it right, which makes it difficult to hire a HC.  Who would want to take a job with a lame duck GM.  

[BearFan PHX]

49 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I just think of all those dropped balls, especially from an all pro, Keenan Allen.  If the Bears had more competent blockers, we would probably get to see Kmet more involved.  Poles has one year to make it right, which makes it difficult to hire a HC.  Who would want to take a job with a lame duck GM.  

for sure, they need to either extend him or fire him.

[adam]

So for anyone thinking Williams and Nix are close, look no further than CAY (Completed Air Yards). Against LAC last night, Nix had 0.8 CAY before the last garbage time drive with less than 1 min left. He ended with a 1.1. The week prior he had 1.2. That means his average completion went 1.2 yards beyond the LOS.

Having a low CAY is not necessary bad, Mahomes averages 4.0, but when it's that low, it's a red flag for sure. Mac Jones averages the lowest in the NFL at 3.6. So in the last two games Nix has 2 of the 3 lowest games on the year of any QB in any game. Rush has the lowest at 0.9. 

So again, not all stats are created equal. Nix stat line looks great, 263 yards passing, 2 TD, 106.6 Rating, 63.1 QBR, but 90% of his stats were his teammates and the scheme. Oh, and his team lost to another winning team. Nix has never beaten a team with a winning record. Even with only 4 wins, Williams at least beat LAR. 

[Stinger226]

23 minutes ago, adam said:

So for anyone thinking Williams and Nix are close, look no further than CAY (Completed Air Yards). Against LAC last night, Nix had 0.8 CAY before the last garbage time drive with less than 1 min left. He ended with a 1.1. The week prior he had 1.2. That means his average completion went 1.2 yards beyond the LOS.

Having a low CAY is not necessary bad, Mahomes averages 4.0, but when it's that low, it's a red flag for sure. Mac Jones averages the lowest in the NFL at 3.6. So in the last two games Nix has 2 of the 3 lowest games on the year of any QB in any game. Rush has the lowest at 0.9. 

So again, not all stats are created equal. Nix stat line looks great, 263 yards passing, 2 TD, 106.6 Rating, 63.1 QBR, but 90% of his stats were his teammates and the scheme. Oh, and his team lost to another winning team. Nix has never beaten a team with a winning record. Even with only 4 wins, Williams at least beat LAR. 

You are right stats can deceive you, football has so many random outcomes there are many examples of stats not mattering. The only stat that matters is wins and loses and so many variables are involved in that, its hard to make points on stats alone.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 12/20/2024 at 3:17 AM, adam said:

 

On 12/20/2024 at 3:17 AM, adam said:

So again, not all stats are created equal. Nix stat line looks great, 263 yards passing, 2 TD, 106.6 Rating, 63.1 QBR, but 90% of his stats were his teammates and the scheme. Oh, and his team lost to another winning team. Nix has never beaten a team with a winning record. Even with only 4 wins, Williams at least beat LAR. 

Nix (and Daniels) also wasn’t labeled a ‘can’t miss generational talent’ who ‘can win despite what team he plays for’.  Sure Williams has had a rough year with piss poor coaching (Daniels and Nix have benefited from better coaching) but both Daniels and Nix are also on the precipice of playing in the playoffs during their first year.  There’s no question Williams has the advantage of talent around him on offense.  So it comes down to coaching…I guess.  

[adam]

18 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

 

AG, just because someone has a label, that should not require them to exceed all others if the situations are not the same. People also forget that Williams is a year younger than both Daniels and Nix. So a younger QB in a complete mess of a team and situation. So it is hard to use wins as a metric when the other 52 players have done nothing.

Williams now has 3,271 Passing Yards, 19 TD, 5 INT
Daniels (The ORoY) has 3,302 Passing Yards, 22 TD, 8 INT
Nix has 3,235 Passing Yards, 22 TD, 11 INT

So Daniels has 31 more passing yards than Williams, both Daniels and Nix have 3 more TD passes, but Williams has 6 fewer INTs than Nix and 3 less than Daniels with more passing attempts. 

The Bears defense has allowed 30 pts in 3 out of the last 4 games. 

Williams can break the franchise passing record with 568 yards in the last 2 weeks (284/g). 

Williams 3,271 is the most by a Bears QB since Jay Cutler's 3,659 in 2015. He has exceeded every season by Trubisky and Fields in 15 games. 

[adam]

Another one of those punches in the gut, Penix gets his first start, wins by 27. Team scored 34 points. What you don't see are the 2 defensive TDs accounting for 14 of the teams points. Penix had 202 yards passing, 0 TD, and 1 INT but won lol.

[adam]

Here is where the generational talent comes in:

300 Yard Passing Games (Rookies)

Caleb Williams - 15 starts, 4x 300-yd games
All other rookie QBs - 45 starts, 2x 300-yd games (Daniels 1, Nix-1, Maye-0, Rattler-0, Penix-0)

So he has twice as many 300-yd passing games than all other rookies combined in a 1/3 of the starts.

[adam]

Another one:

Williams has 326 passing attempts without an INT, now over 100 attempts more than the previous rookie record. 

The NFL record is next, 402 attempts by Rodgers in 2018. Williams needs 76 attempts, which would be 38 per game for the last two games, or he can extend it into next season. He has 5 games where he had more than 38 attempts, and a 6th game where he had 37.

[adam]

Bears Franchise Record (Passing Yards)

1. Erik Kramer, 1995: 3838

2. Jay Cutler, 2014: 3812

3. Jay Cutler, 2009: 3666

4. Jay Cutler, 2015: 3659

5. Jay Cutler, 2010: 3274

6. Caleb Williams, 2024: 3271 (2 games remaining)

[Bears4Ever_34]

The bar is on the floor, but Caleb is on pace to have one of the best, if not thee best, all-around statistical season of any Bears QB ever, and he's doing it as a rookie with 3 offensive coordinator changes and a head coach being fired in the middle of a season.

Cutler has the Bears all-time record for total yards in a season with 4,003. Caleb is right on pace to narrowly eclipse that. The extra game helps, but it still would be a noteworthy accomplishment.

Give this kid an OL and a coach who doesn't suck.

[adam]

17 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

The bar is on the floor, but at the end of all this, for Caleb to still finish with probably the best statistical season of any Bears quarterback ever is remarkable.

Cutler has the Bears all-time record for total yards in a season with 4,003. Caleb is right on pace to narrowly eclipse that. The extra game helps, but it still would be a noteworthy accomplishment.

Give this kid an OL and a coach who doesn't suck.

Caleb also has 442 rushing yards. So he has 3,713 total yards for 247.5 yards per game with 2 games left. So he is on pace for 4,208 total yards.

[adam]

I have no idea how QBR is giving Caleb a 39.7 for this game? 334 Passing Yards, 65.0% Comp, 8.4 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 2 Sacks, 6 carries, 34 Rushing Yards. Like how is that possible? It has to be a typo right? His 2nd highest passing yards, 7th highest Comp%, 2nd highest Y/A, T-2nd TD Passes, T-1st INT, T-6th Rushing Yards, T-2nd Sacks, and 4th highest QB Rating. 

Yet that equates to a 39.7?

Stroud had 244 passing yards, 59% Comp, 6.3 Y/A, 2 TD, 2 INT, 2 Sacks, and 23 Rushing Yards. Every single stat worse than Caleb yet he ended up with a 64.3 QBR?

[BearFan PHX]

QBR is like PFF - both are numbers so they seem scientific, but in fact, they are just stupid and meaningless

[Bears4Ever_34]

Lol a 39 QBR for that game is just freakin insane. That stat is pure garbage.

10 bucks says they docked him like 30 points for the fumble that actually should have been credited to Odunze.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

The bar is on the floor, but Caleb is on pace to have one of the best, if not thee best, all-around statistical season of any Bears QB ever, and he's doing it as a rookie with 3 offensive coordinator changes and a head coach being fired in the middle of a season.

Cutler has the Bears all-time record for total yards in a season with 4,003. Caleb is right on pace to narrowly eclipse that. The extra game helps, but it still would be a noteworthy accomplishment.

Give this kid an OL and a coach who doesn't suck.

And while it isn’t the season we expected - I think he is learning a ton through these experiences and will get at it in the offseason and work with the new staff to never let this sort of year happen again. 
 

He has flashed a ton all season - also had some rookie mistakes, but no rookie was asked to do more than Caleb. 
 

Now let’s get him a good coach…don’t get cute - two strong candidates in Vrabel or Johnson - grab one of them. I prefer Vrabel but both have earned their shot. Kingsbury would be my 3rd choice - he had done a ton for Daniels.

[adam]

15 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Lol a 39 QBR for that game is just freakin insane. That stat is pure garbage.

10 bucks says they docked him like 30 points for the fumble that actually should have been credited to Odunze.

Yep that accounted for more than 2x INTs by other QBs, it makes no sense.

On the flip side, PFF graded him at 83.0, his 3rd best game of the season. 

[adam]

I always find this interesting, how the media can portray the same production. All 3 of these QBs have played 15 games. Herbert gets praised all the time, and no one ever talks bad about Kyler, yet Caleb is crapped on constantly. 

Kyler Murray 3,288 yds, 16 TD, 9 INT, 518 Rush Yds, 5 TD
Caleb Williams 3,271 yds, 19 TD, 5 INT, 442 Rush Yds, 0 TD
Justin Herbert 3,243 yds, 18 TD, 3 INT, 252 Rush Yds, 2 TD

The biggest issue with Caleb is sacks. 

[jason]

On 12/22/2024 at 2:43 PM, adam said:

Bears Franchise Record (Passing Yards)

1. Erik Kramer, 1995: 3838

2. Jay Cutler, 2014: 3812

3. Jay Cutler, 2009: 3666

4. Jay Cutler, 2015: 3659

5. Jay Cutler, 2010: 3274

6. Caleb Williams, 2024: 3271 (2 games remaining)

This one is crazy. Even with moderately successful games, say 200yds a game, he moves into third ALL TIME.

[BearFan PHX]

18 minutes ago, jason said:

This one is crazy. Even with moderately successful games, say 200yds a game, he moves into third ALL TIME.

Im starting to think we havent been a very good franchise LOL

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Im starting to think we havent been a very good franchise LOL

Like I said previously, when have the Bears drafted a good QB, LT, or DE.  It has been since the 80s for 2 out of 3.  If they nailed the QB, they could have been a dynasty.  

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Like I said previously, when have the Bears drafted a good QB, LT, or DE.  It has been since the 80s for 2 out of 3.  If they nailed the QB, they could have been a dynasty.  

yup

[ASHKUM BEAR]

28 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

yup

And that is the major reason they have been bad since that time as well, beside having a great coach you have to draft those positions sucessfully.  The Bears, instructed by the owners IMO, demand a safe player over a liability.  Proof  Shea McClellin over Chandler Jones. Looking at the 2012 draft, we signed many fa's from that class that we could have drafted.  The guys we drafted besides WR A Jeffrey were nothings. The owners need to stay away and let the brass take the best player.

[Mongo3451]

7 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Like I said previously, when have the Bears drafted a good QB, LT, or DE.  It has been since the 80s for 2 out of 3.  If they nailed the QB, they could have been a dynasty.  

Drafting linemen aren't good media hype tools.  It's only sexy three years down the road.  The McCaskey's have ruined this franchise.

[Stinger226]

We still need players in the trenches. Has brought in Dexter, Pickens, Billings,  and traded for Sweat. He addressed the DL, injuries has derailed the them this yr. Dexter has shown promise, Pickens , Billings and Sweat has been limited with Injuries. He brouht in Darrel Taylor that disappeared. this year and drafted Booker that needs to be developed. Its still a work in progress. We add 2 high end talents this year and should be viable. 

OL has a long way to go. We will add a few FAs and draft picks it will upgrade the talent. Davis was a bust, Bates was injured and may add he only missed two games in the previous 2 yrs due ti injuries. Shelton has been okay, Jenkins still misses games because of injuries and Braxton hasnt gotten better but will say his play has remained above his draft value.

I dont think we are as  far away as people think.