Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[adam]

9 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Like I said previously, when have the Bears drafted a good QB, LT, or DE.  It has been since the 80s for 2 out of 3.  If they nailed the QB, they could have been a dynasty.  

These are not all of them, but the Bears stacked their OLine and DLines for the 85 Team, using 5 1st rounders in the trenches, with the others being McMahon, Gault, Marshall, and Wilson. So 5 out of 9 in the trenches, all others were starters at their positions. 

1979 #4 - Dan Hampton - DE
1981 #11 - Keith Van Horne - OT
1981 UDFA - Jay Hilgenberg - C
1983 #6 - Jimbo Covert - OT
1983 #91 - Tom Thayer - OG
1983 #203 - Richard Dent - DE
1983 #219 - Mark Bortz - OG
1985 #22 - William Perry - DT

The Bears hit on every 1st round pick from 79 to 87 (Harbaugh), then the wheels fell off after that (Muster, Wendell Davis, Woolford, Armstrong, Carrier, Stan Thomas, and Spellman.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, adam said:

These are not all of them, but the Bears stacked their OLine and DLines for the 85 Team, using 5 1st rounders in the trenches, with the others being McMahon, Gault, Marshall, and Wilson. So 5 out of 9 in the trenches, all others were starters at their positions. 

1979 #4 - Dan Hampton - DE
1981 #11 - Keith Van Horne - OT
1981 UDFA - Jay Hilgenberg - C
1983 #6 - Jimbo Covert - OT
1983 #91 - Tom Thayer - OG
1983 #203 - Richard Dent - DE
1983 #219 - Mark Bortz - OG
1985 #22 - William Perry - DT

The Bears hit on every 1st round pick from 79 to 87 (Harbaugh), then the wheels fell off after that (Muster, Wendell Davis, Woolford, Armstrong, Carrier, Stan Thomas, and Spellman.

The Bears had the composition before on how to build a championship team and abandoned it.  Warren needs a letter to remind him how a team can become a force.  This draft they can add 4 pieces if they don't get cute.  LT, DE, DT, and C/G are the assignment.  The other pieces can be FA and later draft picks. 2026 draft repeat in the trenches so there is strong depth because injuries happen and games are won there. Once you have starters and depth, go cute one year taking RB, MLB, and TE like detroit did, they were in position to and it paid off. 

[jason]

6 hours ago, adam said:

These are not all of them, but the Bears stacked their OLine and DLines for the 85 Team, using 5 1st rounders in the trenches, with the others being McMahon, Gault, Marshall, and Wilson. So 5 out of 9 in the trenches, all others were starters at their positions. 

1979 #4 - Dan Hampton - DE
1981 #11 - Keith Van Horne - OT
1981 UDFA - Jay Hilgenberg - C
1983 #6 - Jimbo Covert - OT
1983 #91 - Tom Thayer - OG
1983 #203 - Richard Dent - DE
1983 #219 - Mark Bortz - OG
1985 #22 - William Perry - DT

The Bears hit on every 1st round pick from 79 to 87 (Harbaugh), then the wheels fell off after that (Muster, Wendell Davis, Woolford, Armstrong, Carrier, Stan Thomas, and Spellman.

Give me that 1983 draft. Still amazed every time I see it. Hit after hit after hit. Only a random TE sticks out like a festering zit on an otherwise unblemished face.

[adam]

14 hours ago, jason said:

Give me that 1983 draft. Still amazed every time I see it. Hit after hit after hit. Only a random TE sticks out like a festering zit on an otherwise unblemished face.

Yeah, crazy draft. One of the best all-time for any team. Considering how scouting was back then, it makes it even more impressive.

I am curious what people think of CJ Stroud, he was the golden boy last year, little brothered Caleb this year and now looks like a bottom 3rd QB. He now has 19 TD with 12 INT and 52 Sacks on the season, and that is with Mixon at RB, had Dell back for a good chunk of the season and had Diggs for the first half. He doesn't look like the same QB.

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Yeah, crazy draft. One of the best all-time for any team. Considering how scouting was back then, it makes it even more impressive.

I am curious what people think of CJ Stroud, he was the golden boy last year, little brothered Caleb this year and now looks like a bottom 3rd QB. He now has 19 TD with 12 INT and 52 Sacks on the season, and that is with Mixon at RB, had Dell back for a good chunk of the season and had Diggs for the first half. He doesn't look like the same QB.

I have no idea what happened to him.  Missing easy wide open passes in this last game was really surprising to me.  

[AZ54]

I watched this last night.  His line drive pass into the gap deep down the right sideline is just rare talent.  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone do that.  Beyond that moment, his composure behind the line on numerous plays was amazing.   
 

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I watched this last night.  His line drive pass into the gap deep down the right sideline is just rare talent.  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone do that.  Beyond that moment, his composure behind the line on numerous plays was amazing.   
 

 

He’s flashed special a ton this season - he has to keep watching film and learn to speed up his tempo when defense calls it but he has also shown flashes where he can get it out quick. I think we will see a ton of growth from him over the offseason. 

[adam]

Caleb had a 24.4 QBR for the game. Terrible performance. One of his worst games as a pro.

At 3,393, he would need 207 yards next week to hit 3,600 on the year. He has failed to hit 200 in 3 out of the last 4 games. So this is going to be a challenge. He did have 231 against GB last time, but that was at home, and not in GB in January. 

Obviously Erik Kramer's team record is safe for another year. 

[BearFan PHX]

29 minutes ago, adam said:

Obviously Erik Kramer's team record is safe for another year. 

LOL for sure.

Caleb currently has the 5th best season for passing yards in Bears history. Which is amazing given all hes been through.

266 yards on sunday will put him at 4th best.

271 yards puts him at 3rd best.

2nd and 1st are both out of reach.

Crazy!

hey adam, this stat stuff is fun

[Stinger226]

Here's sme food for thought. 

 

[Stinger226]

 

[adam]

12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

LOL for sure.

Caleb currently has the 5th best season for passing yards in Bears history. Which is amazing given all hes been through.

266 yards on sunday will put him at 4th best.

271 yards puts him at 3rd best.

2nd and 1st are both out of reach.

Crazy!

hey adam, this stat stuff is fun

There are endless numbers, always a different way to look at the same thing.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

 

The challenging piece is knowing what Caleb is being coached to do, what the scheme is, progression, etc.

To me, there are 4 basic components to a pass play, the play/scheme (does it scheme someone open, does it stress the point defender?), the O-Line/Protection (can include blitz/stunt pickups), the QB, and the receivers. The QB is obviously the most influential, so the play's success rate will more times than not come down to how well they performed individually on any single play. The next most influential is the receiver, because everything else can go right and they can still drop the ball. The next is scheme and O-Line which both can fail, but be overcome by a great QB and Receiver (see Cincy). 

The goal is to have none of those below average. If Caleb had an average O-Line, average scheme, and average receivers, he would've thrown for 4K yards, probably 30 TDs, etc. He would've still had high sacks, but probably around 40-50, but not 70. 

The Receivers were not good enough to overcome a bad scheme, less time to get open due to the O-Line, and some inaccurate passes by Caleb.

Caleb, as a rookie, was not good enough to play above the bad O-Line, scheme, and receivers.

My project this weekend is to watch every sack from the end zone view, look at the receivers between 2-3 secs after snap and see if any are open. 

I feel like the combination of everything made everything else worse. No unit picked up the play of the other. 2 vet WRs, 3 vet TEs and none of them picked up their QB. Way too many dropped passes, wrong routes, presnap penalties, etc. 

We all know how bad the O-Line was, it is not even up for debate. 

Caleb was a rookie QB that struggled against the blitz and immediate pressure, he held onto the ball too long, took unnecessary sacks and was too young to understand the urgency in the 2-minute drill. 

 

They will obvious get a new scheme next year, one can only hope it is better than what we have seen out of Getsy and Waldron. The O-Line needs to be the focus of free agency and the draft. They need to put money into it and draft capital, then repeat that every year. The WR Corps needs a burner that can stretch the field, maybe that is Scott, I don't know, but having the Safeties at 15 yards makes for a very condensed secondary. Caleb is going to need to learn how to bail after 2 reads, not 4, and run more than he probably wants to until the O-Line is above average. Every receiver needs to use the juggs machine for 1K reps per day until they stop dropping passes. 

The good thing is there is nowhere to go but up next year. Hopefully....

 

[Stinger226]

After watching Washington become what we thought we would do, its time to assess Caleb in a honest convesation.

We see potenial that could be special but all of his play is not because of bad coaching and poor OL. We could have had 1/3 less sacks had he not held the ball so long so many times. When under pressue you hit your check down or throw it away. As much as he made some spetacular plays down the strerch of games he also took rally killing sacks.He is no longer a rookie after playing 16 games, he should play better. He has missed many open WRs of which all QBs do but he should have gotten better. Did he worry to much about throwing INTs that he was always pushing the ball downfield?

He has proven to be a exceptional rusher and a special arm but I would think at this stage we would see better QB play at this time.

I always support who is here and expect great things from Caleb but some of this bad year is on him also. I totally expect new coaching and a better OL will unleash the beast in him but (the holding the ball to long) bothers me.

We have seen good play from every QB drafted this year and for me I seen them get better as the season moved on. I am never the person that says we should have drated a different QB because if those rookies were here they would have been affected by the disfunction of this team. People will say to look at his stats and say he did fine but stats can be deceiving, it was not a good year for Caleb.

[BearFan PHX]

Here's an article by Erik Lambert. Unless we think he is completely lying (as some do) he quotes Ernest Jones IV directly.

He played LB against Caleb in the opening game, and again after he was traded to Seattle. He says (unless Lambert is totally lying) "he is going to be special" and "From the first game until now he's way better. Way better." and he also said "Decision making... he's starting to get more comfortable. There's a lot going on right now down low with his O-Line. He's making a lot of plays with his feet. Once they are able to get him protected, man, he can make all the throws. when he gets out of the pocket, he's dangerous"

Everyone has an opinion of course. And some of them are wrong I'll go with the professional that has to play against him, and scout his film. Especially when it confirms what I see with my own eyes.

Caleb surely has growing to do, but he is going to be special. I just hope we can put a team around him, and a staff that knows what they are doing, in terms of building a culture and schemes both.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/nfl-defender-cant-believe-how-much-caleb-williams-improved/

[BearFan PHX]

On 12/28/2024 at 5:20 AM, adam said:

My project this weekend is to watch every sack from the end zone view, look at the receivers between 2-3 secs after snap and see if any are open.

that's gonna be amazing. Looking forward to what you find. Maybe count the number of times they are and arent?

Also keep in mind progressions, and open throwing lanes.

I suspect you'll find a decent number of plays where Caleb had options, and a bunch more where he didnt.

But what a great project.

[adam]

Final Stats: 351-562, 62.5%, 3541 Yds, 6.3 Y/A, 20 TD, 6 INT, 68 Sacks, 87.8 QB Rating, 46.5 QBR, Rushing: 81-489 Yds, 4030 Total Yards. 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Final Stats: 351-562, 62.5%, 3541 Yds, 6.3 Y/A, 20 TD, 6 INT, 68 Sacks, 87.8 QB Rating, 46.5 QBR, Rushing: 81-489 Yds, 4030 Total Yards. 

That's a good season statically for a rookie but carrying the first pic in the draft  stigma, it seems off. Has a bright future but it's not set in stone that he's generational.

[Mongo3451]

5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

That's a good season statically for a rookie but carrying the first pic in the draft  stigma, it seems off. Has a bright future but it's not set in stone that he's generational.

He's shown me way more ability to get it done than anyone we've ever had.  The big keys for next year will be deep ball accuracy and release time.  He's gonna have to cut sacks in half.  He can help his OL grow into it by being quicker.

[adam]

Playing with a lead is so much different than playing from behind. Out of the 3 top rookie QBs, check out the disparity in passing attempts based on the score:

Williams
Attempts while leading: 98
Attempts while trailing: 410

Daniels
Attempts while leading: 304
Attempts while trailing: 189

Nix
Attempts while leading: 226
Attempts while trailing: 224

So he had OVER 200 fewer passing attempts than Daniels with the lead. That's like 5 games or 20 quarters of play. He also had twice as many attempts while trailing than either of them. 

[Mongo3451]

22 minutes ago, adam said:

Playing with a lead is so much different than playing from behind. Out of the 3 top rookie QBs, check out the disparity in passing attempts based on the score:

Williams
Attempts while leading: 98
Attempts while trailing: 410

Daniels
Attempts while leading: 304
Attempts while trailing: 189

Nix
Attempts while leading: 226
Attempts while trailing: 224

So he had OVER 200 fewer passing attempts than Daniels with the lead. That's like 5 games or 20 quarters of play. He also had twice as many attempts while trailing than either of them. 

That's more of an indictment than a positive argument.

[AZ54]

18 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

He's shown me way more ability to get it done than anyone we've ever had.  The big keys for next year will be deep ball accuracy and release time.  He's gonna have to cut sacks in half.  He can help his OL grow into it by being quicker.

Agreed

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Playing with a lead is so much different than playing from behind. Out of the 3 top rookie QBs, check out the disparity in passing attempts based on the score:

Williams
Attempts while leading: 98
Attempts while trailing: 410

Daniels
Attempts while leading: 304
Attempts while trailing: 189

Nix
Attempts while leading: 226
Attempts while trailing: 224

So he had OVER 200 fewer passing attempts than Daniels with the lead. That's like 5 games or 20 quarters of play. He also had twice as many attempts while trailing than either of them. 

What we have seen is his late game ability to put us in a position to win despite the chaos around him. That's huge for a rookie. The right Coach will make him more consistent. I think him coming back and winning in GB boasts his confidence also.

With all we can say good or bad, one thing is for sure, he's a tough SOB. A good trait for a QB. His ability to extend plays is also a great trait. Better runner that I originally thought.

[adam]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's more of an indictment than a positive argument.

Depends, if you are always playing from behind, you are in more predictable situations (more passing). That is why Caleb ended up with the most passing attempts amongst rookies. 

If you look at most QB splits, they are worse when playing from behind. So if you are playing behind more, your numbers should be lower. Caleb was within 30 passing yards of Daniels on the season. 

So with an even playing field, Caleb will clear all the other rookies. 

[adam]

Two QBs in NFL history have thrown over 400 passing attempts while trailing with +10 TDs and fewer 5 INTs in a season.

Tom Brady (2022) and Caleb Williams (2024).

Caleb had the 2nd most plays while trailing for a QB in NFL history at 531, only trailing Lawrence (2021).