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Caleb Williams QBR Tracker


adam

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1 hour ago, adam said:

Depends, if you are always playing from behind, you are in more predictable situations (more passing). That is why Caleb ended up with the most passing attempts amongst rookies. 

If you look at most QB splits, they are worse when playing from behind. So if you are playing behind more, your numbers should be lower. Caleb was within 30 passing yards of Daniels on the season. 

So with an even playing field, Caleb will clear all the other rookies. 

The indictment is because he was always behind.  Lowest first quarter scoring in the NFL.  It wasn't the defense.

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7 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

The indictment is because he was always behind.  Lowest first quarter scoring in the NFL.  It wasn't the defense.

I'll put some of this on caleb because I think he held the ball too long early in the games trying to be safe or get the sure thing.  4th quarters it was do or die and he threw the ball into tighter windows.  Get him a oline and a RB with more punch and he will improve earlier in games.

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During his final press conference when asked about who or what he wanted in a new coaching staff he said he wants to be challenged.  He admitted or mentioned several times the need for him to improve his ability to play on time or within the timing of the play.  Caleb is pretty smart and is already reading defenses well just not making decision quick enough.  He setup the final play that got us the game winning FG.  Thomas Brown said he called for triple stack of WRs on the right with DJ in one on one coverage with intent of DJ going deep and taking a chance on a game winning TD.  Caleb told DJ if he saw coverage over the top to break it off to the slant we saw.  DJ listened to him and we won the game.  Little details like that have me very optimistic for what we'll see next season.  

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On 12/26/2024 at 4:57 AM, adam said:

I am curious what people think of CJ Stroud, he was the golden boy last year, little brothered Caleb this year and now looks like a bottom 3rd QB. He now has 19 TD with 12 INT and 52 Sacks on the season, and that is with Mixon at RB, had Dell back for a good chunk of the season and had Diggs for the first half. He doesn't look like the same QB

Well they did manage to make the playoffs with him as QB two years in a row.  Also with former LB and former DC DeMeco Ryans as HC.  🤷🏻‍♂️

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1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Well they did manage to make the playoffs with him as QB two years in a row.  Also with former LB and former DC DeMeco Ryans as HC.  🤷🏻‍♂️

And their new OC who has fallen out of favor with fans, Slowik.  Slowik is going to interview for the Jets though. 

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2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Well they did manage to make the playoffs with him as QB two years in a row.  Also with former LB and former DC DeMeco Ryans as HC.  🤷🏻‍♂️

And their WR corps and oline were decimated this year.

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22 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Well they did manage to make the playoffs with him as QB two years in a row.  Also with former LB and former DC DeMeco Ryans as HC.  🤷🏻‍♂️

The perks of playing in the perennial worst division in football every year. It doesn't take much to win that division.

That said, it's still a testament to their coaching that they were able to hold it together despite all of the injuries. I still believe Stroud will bounce back and that you can't really get a good idea on how good a QB really is until after his 3rd season.

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On 1/6/2025 at 1:02 PM, adam said:

Playing with a lead is so much different than playing from behind. Out of the 3 top rookie QBs, check out the disparity in passing attempts based on the score:

Williams
Attempts while leading: 98
Attempts while trailing: 410

Daniels
Attempts while leading: 304
Attempts while trailing: 189

Nix
Attempts while leading: 226
Attempts while trailing: 224

So he had OVER 200 fewer passing attempts than Daniels with the lead. That's like 5 games or 20 quarters of play. He also had twice as many attempts while trailing than either of them. 

I forgot to add SoS for the QBs. You cannot tell me that the ease of schedule didn't have anything to do with their overall numbers and W-L record. Williams still put up comparable numbers facing infinitely better teams and had to do it playing from behind most of the time (when they know you are passing). I equate it to a track race, Caleb is in the outer lane, Daniels is in the first lane, and Nix is in the middle. In addition to the lanes, Caleb also has a 10 degree incline while Daniels is running downhill at 12 degrees.

Williams (.554 SoS)
Attempts while leading: 98
Attempts while trailing: 410

Daniels (.436 SoS)
Attempts while leading: 304
Attempts while trailing: 189

Nix (.502)
Attempts while leading: 226
Attempts while trailing: 224

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On 12/31/2024 at 10:30 AM, BearFan PHX said:

that's gonna be amazing. Looking forward to what you find. Maybe count the number of times they are and arent?

Also keep in mind progressions, and open throwing lanes.

I suspect you'll find a decent number of plays where Caleb had options, and a bunch more where he didnt.

But what a great project.

That’s going to be a very subjective analysis.

Generally speaking I’d say it’s gotta be a great majority on the OL.

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3 hours ago, jason said:

That’s going to be a very subjective analysis.

Generally speaking I’d say it’s gotta be a great majority on the OL.

this is what i expect too. i think when you watch the game on TV, you see Caleb holding the ball, or not throwing to an open man, and later you see that there was no throwing lane, or he was looking elsewhere with hie progression etc.

The all 22 really tells the story.

But yeah, mostly, the OL was just awful this year - that was easy to see on TV.

And for sure there are times Caleb needs to be better too. But i think overall, he did well for his rookie year, and if we give him an Ol and an offensive scheme, i think he will be great.

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I listen to one of those former QBs that analyzes NFL QBs and he said that footwork needs work and has messed with his accuracy. I'll try to find the video. He made a lot of sense.  Statically Caleb's work was pretty good for a rookie but he has a ways to go before he's a top 10 QB let alone a top 5 . One habit that I saw was not throwing the ball away when there was no other option. One website that analyzes sacks said 1/3 of the sacks were on him . Get extending plays but when a blitzer was unblocked,you lose most the time.

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20 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I listen to one of those former QBs that analyzes NFL QBs and he said that footwork needs work and has messed with his accuracy. I'll try to find the video. He made a lot of sense.  Statically Caleb's work was pretty good for a rookie but he has a ways to go before he's a top 10 QB let alone a top 5 . One habit that I saw was not throwing the ball away when there was no other option. One website that analyzes sacks said 1/3 of the sacks were on him . Get extending plays but when a blitzer was unblocked,you lose most the time.

He ended up with 68 sacks, exactly 4 per game. If he can cut that down to 51, it would still be near the league lead but down 25%. Also, when he breaks contain, he tries to extend the play with a pass until the very last possible second. However, he has to know down and distance. There were several plays where he could easily get the 5-6 yards for a first by running, but he elected to stay behind the LOS until the defense swarmed, ending in an incompletion.

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On 1/12/2025 at 5:28 AM, Stinger226 said:

One website that analyzes sacks said 1/3 of the sacks were on him . 

I smell 🐂💩.

That’s immediately suspect analysis, likely performed by an underperforming JV offensive lineman who, despite his man-boobs and general body composition resembling 275lbs of chewed bubblegum, thinks he could have been all-state if the varsity coach had put him in.

The way I see it you break down into the following categories:

1. QB’s fault, held for big play
2. QB’s fault, missed read
3. WR’s fault, incorrect route(s)
4. OL’s fault, QB pressure/sack in pocket
5. OL’s fault, QB forced out of pocket

I’m betting there is a lot of conflict between 1 & 5. 

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35 minutes ago, jason said:

I smell 🐂💩.

That’s immediately suspect analysis, likely performed by an underperforming JV offensive lineman who, despite his man-boobs and general body composition resembling 275lbs of chewed bubblegum, thinks he could have been all-state if the varsity coach had put him in.

The way I see it you break down into the following categories:

1. QB’s fault, held for big play
2. QB’s fault, missed read
3. WR’s fault, incorrect route(s)
4. OL’s fault, QB pressure/sack in pocket
5. OL’s fault, QB forced out of pocket

I’m betting there is a lot of conflict between 1 & 5. 

You may have a different set of stats that you refer to. I don't know how accurate some sites are over others but using my eyes as a judge, a large amount of sacks were created by the QB decisions. Whether its 10%<20%<30% it's still player related. Not trying to shift some of blame from a bad line that's oblivious. We need the line upgraded and improvement by our QB, I think some blame goes to bad play calling also. If you have max blitze you need to adjust plays to fit the defense, bad at that too.

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16 hours ago, adam said:

He ended up with 68 sacks, exactly 4 per game. If he can cut that down to 51, it would still be near the league lead but down 25%. Also, when he breaks contain, he tries to extend the play with a pass until the very last possible second. However, he has to know down and distance. There were several plays where he could easily get the 5-6 yards for a first by running, but he elected to stay behind the LOS until the defense swarmed, ending in an incompletion.

My biggest concern was in heavy pressure situations why isn't the outlet pass thrown. I see it all the time from other QBs. Caleb needed to recognize pressure and dump it or throw it away. It probably was 10-20 % of sacks alone.

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10 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

My biggest concern was in heavy pressure situations why isn't the outlet pass thrown. I see it all the time from other QBs. Caleb needed to recognize pressure and dump it or throw it away. It probably was 10-20 % of sacks alone.

From watching way too much all-22, there are no hot routes, I have no clue why. A TE or WR should be running a quick slant or in cutting route for an easy completion towards the pressure since that is where the vacated spot is at. I rarely see that. When it happens, I ask, where was this all year and why don't they go back to it?

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2 hours ago, adam said:

From watching way too much all-22, there are no hot routes, I have no clue why. A TE or WR should be running a quick slant or in cutting route for an easy completion towards the pressure since that is where the vacated spot is at. I rarely see that. When it happens, I ask, where was this all year and why don't they go back to it?

Brown had it figured out for the three games he was solely the OC.  In those games the Bears played valiantly against Detroit, GB and Minny only to lose by a few points each game. Once he elevated to HC, the magic disappeared.

Having watched all that All-22 my question is, what the hell was Kmet doing?  Sitting on the sideline?  He just disappeared… 

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8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Brown had it figured out for the three games he was solely the OC.  In those games the Bears played valiantly against Detroit, GB and Minny only to lose by a few points each game. Once he elevated to HC, the magic disappeared.

Having watched all that All-22 my question is, what the hell was Kmet doing?  Sitting on the sideline?  He just disappeared… 

Yes a lot had to do with play calling. Kmet should have had 30 more catches this year.

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