Caleb Williams QBR Tracker

[BearFan2000]

On 10/21/2024 at 7:10 AM, Stinger226 said:

Stats can be misleading, Mahomes hasnt played well yet the Chiefs are 6-0, they have a great coach and good defense , everything matters. 

The Cheifs also have the zebras on their side.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, BearFan2000 said:

The Cheifs also have the zebras on their side.

I think anyone that has won that many SBs proabaly get  more team friendly calls.

[adam]

This was Caleb's worst game. After some progress, he took some huge steps back. He ended up with a QBR of 18.3, 2nd lowest to Flacco at 14.6. 

We are now thru 8 games, and it feels like Williams is underperforming all things considered. He is averaging 208 yards per game, still only has 9 TDs and 5 INTs on the season. 

After having 4 INTs in the first 3 games, he has only 1 in his last 5. however, even against bad defenses coming in, the results the last two weeks coming out of the bye have been bad. 

The offense looks completely disjointed, Caleb is missing open guys, making bad throws, and guys are dropping easy passes. 

[Stinger226]

I agree with that, players need to be accountable too. Its not all his fault but he is involved.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

He isn’t comfortable. Holding ball too long or getting happy feet and rushing a pass. Receivers not always on same page - but also some plays where stuff just looks weird - saw a few times where two guys in same spot - bad play design or someone misran a route. 
 

Got to get back to basics and it is across players, coaching and scheme. Coaches have to coach better, scheme needs to be simplified, and players absolutely got to play better. 
 

I would trade Keenan and ideally find a faster wideout. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Hey, at least Jayden Daniels is starting to come back down to earth a little bit  He really hasn't been very good since coming back from his injury. 

[adam]

On 11/14/2024 at 10:01 PM, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Hey, at least Jayden Daniels is starting to come back down to earth a little bit  He really hasn't been very good since coming back from his injury. 

His only game with 270+ passing yards is against the Bears which included the 52-yard HM. Since then, in his last 3 games, he has averaged 201 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, with a good chunk coming in garbage time. 

On the season, he averages 213 Passing yards, 29 rushing yards (242 Total Yards), and 0.9 Passing TDs per game. Caleb is at 198, 26 (224 Total Yards), and 1.0 Passing TDs per game.  Nix is at 197, 29 (226 total yards), and 1.0 Passing TD per game. So the top 3 rookie QBs are within 18 total yards (Passing+Rushing) and 0.1 Passing TDs per game.  However, only one is getting MVP consideration, solely due to the team's record. 

The context of the stats is huge. Caleb has attempted 197 passing attempts when trailing to only 63 with the lead. Daniels has attempted 108 when trailing and 133 when leading (literally the exact opposite). Nix is right in the middle with 148 when trailing, and 113 in the lead. 

With the lead: Daniels, 133 (55%), Nix 113 (43%), Caleb 63 (24%)
Trailing: Caleb 197, Nix 148, Daniels 108

The difference is huge. Caleb had a 76.2% Comp, 5 TD, 1 INT, 121.0 QB Rating and only 4 sacks when leading while throwing for 8.5 YA. Those numbers fall off a cliff when trailing. He drops to 56.9% Comp, 4 TD, 3 INT, 72.8 QB Rating with 27 sacks with his Y/A down to 5.5. 

If Caleb had the same % of passes when leading than Daniels does, Caleb would have at least 240+ more passing yards, 3 more TD, and 1 less INT (at a minimum) on the season. Probably more. 

[adam]

Caleb is on pace for 3,371 passing yards, 17 TD, 9 INT, 446 rushing yards, and the scary part is 72 sacks. That would tie Randall Cunningham for 2nd all-time.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Caleb is on pace for 3,371 passing yards, 17 TD, 9 INT, 446 rushing yards, and the scary part is 72 sacks. That would tie Randall Cunningham for 2nd all-time.

For now, 3 rookie QBs are playing better than him. Everything cant be blames on coaching. When he misses a WR thay/s not on any coach. What bothers me the most is the 60% accuracy .

[adam]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

For now, 3 rookie QBs are playing better than him. Everything cant be blames on coaching. When he misses a WR thay/s not on any coach. What bothers me the most is the 60% accuracy .

He was much better today, 23-31 for 74.2% with a few drops.

[adam]

Caleb had his 4th best Passer Rating of 95.0, 2nd best Comp% at 74.2, and 3rd highest Y/A at 7.5, and his best rushing day with 70 yards.

Now up to 2,016 Passing Yards on the season with 306 rushing yards. Now on pace for 3,427 passing yards and 521 rushing yards. He would need to average 260 passing yards per game to break Erik Kramer's team record. Still a possibility, but with every game, it is becoming more and more unlikely.

He needs 178 passing yards and 3 TDs to become the Bears rookie single season leader. He already holds the completions record with 201 passing Trubisky today. He needs 44 more passing attempts to pass Kyle Orton. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

For now, 3 rookie QBs are playing better than him. Everything cant be blames on coaching. When he misses a WR thay/s not on any coach. What bothers me the most is the 60% accuracy .

I still think when he's been at his best, he looks more dominate than any of the other rookie QB's have looked. The deep ball accuracy is the only glaring issue I'd put squarely on him. It needs to substantially improve. That said, the coaching deficit between Eberflus and Quinn/Payton cannot be overstated. It's bottom 5 vs top 10.

[adam]

Oh and Bo Nix has 9 TD and 1 INT in his last 4 games, which includes games against KC, BAL, and ATL. 👀

Coaching matters. 

[adam]

23 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I still think when he's been at his best, he looks more dominate than any of the other rookie QB's have looked. The deep ball accuracy is the only glaring issue I'd put squarely on him. It needs to substantially improve. That said, the coaching deficit between Eberflus and Quinn/Payton cannot be overstated. It's bottom 5 vs top 10.

Nix has looked really good of late. He is probably winning the ROY. I never understood the Daniels hype outside of the Commanders record. Nix will lead all rookie QB in stats by the end of the year and may end up with 4K passing yards and 30+ TDs, very Stroud-like rookie year. He was my 2nd favorite QB coming out after Caleb. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

Nix has looked really good of late. He is probably winning the ROY. I never understood the Daniels hype outside of the Commanders record. Nix will lead all rookie QB in stats by the end of the year and may end up with 4K passing yards and 30+ TDs, very Stroud-like rookie year. He was my 2nd favorite QB coming out after Caleb. 

Maybe. It helps that he's 2 years older and has Sean Payton. He's having a good year, but doesn't possess any special traits. They've been doing a lot of the Commanders stuff with the short passing game, but Denver's defense has been great all season.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Maybe. It helps that he's 2 years older and has Sean Payton. He's having a good year, but doesn't possess any special traits. They've been doing a lot of the Commanders stuff with the short passing game, but Denver's defense has been great all season.

I agree. He has a better chance of being rookie of the year, than ending up a top 10 QB in the league.

His age gives him a head start on the rookies, but it also suggests an earlier ceiling, as he may already be nearing maxxed out, having done a lot of his developing already because of his age.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Was good to see him bounce back after a couple tough outings. He is still a rookie and has shown plenty of flashes. He absolutely has plenty to work on but was nice seeing more positive play out of him as well as from Rome. 
 

Let’s see how this offensive unit can grow over 2nd half of the season. 

[adam]

Caleb was the highest-graded player on the team according to PFF (85.2) which was Caleb's 2nd highest grade for the season (JAX). 

Caleb had a QBR of 83.4 which was also his 2nd best game of the year and was the 4th best QB this week. 

So Caleb now has 3 top 5 QBR weeks, 2nd in Week 5 vs CAR, 1st in Week 6 against JAX, and 4th this week. 

For the season, Caleb has 3 of the top 50 best games, Daniels also has 3, and Nix has 1. 

 

For the season, Caleb is at 44.2 QBR.  Trubisky had a 33.3 as a rookie, Fields had a 31.4. So Caleb is trending in the right direction. If he can break 50.0, that would be huge, he has 7 more games to get there. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

This next game is going to be tough. Flores is as tough as it gets when it comes to scheme, especially confusing a young qb. 
 

 

[adam]

10 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

This next game is going to be tough. Flores is as tough as it gets when it comes to scheme, especially confusing a young qb. 
 

Interestingly enough, Minnesota allows the 5th most passing yards per game, but they are super stout against the run. 

Their TTT is comparable to Washington's, and their EPA/Pass is between HOU and GB, and their QBP% is between HOU and WAS. So we will see. Overall, it is definitely the toughest overall defense the Bears have faced, but not the toughest pass defense. 

Brown seems to have made a tangible difference as the Bears had their highest EPA/Play at +0.23 against GB. GB allows -0.09 on the season, so the Bears offense had a very solid game against GB.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

18 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Maybe. It helps that he's 2 years older and has Sean Payton. He's having a good year, but doesn't possess any special traits. They've been doing a lot of the Commanders stuff with the short passing game, but Denver's defense has been great all season.

Sean Payton had Russell Wilson as his quarterback last year, and the Broncos looked abysmal. However, this season, Wilson has shown improvement, and the Steelers are undefeated with him as the starter.  

I wasn’t initially a fan of 5th- and 6th-year seniors entering the draft. However, considering the COVID years, it makes sense to factor that in. Players during this period dealt with unique challenges, and staying longer in college might have helped them mature. Peyton Manning is a great example; despite being a highly regarded prospect in his junior year, he chose to stay at Tennessee for his senior season, which undoubtedly helped refine his game.

One of the reasons I liked Nix when he entered the draft was because his and Caleb Williams' stats were nearly identical in the Pac-12. On top of that, Nix had experience playing in the SEC at Auburn, which gave him exposure to better competition. There’s something to be said about taking that extra year to grow. Nix, with his added experience and nearly 1 year 9 month age difference compared to Williams, might suggest a correlation with future NFL success. Perhaps Williams path to success is only a short 1-ish year away?  

[BearFan PHX]

It's a mixed bag. On one hand, a more matured QB comes in hotter, but i have heard a lot of GMs say that the common wisdom (which can be wrong of course) is that QBs develop a lot between age 20 and 25, and then their ability to continue growing slows down.

They say that getting a guy at age 22 gives you 3 years to build him in the NFL, whereas a 27 year old comes in more mature, but probably doesnt grow much after his first year.

Of course there are the Kurt Warners of the world to disprove that theory too. But this is one of the big supposed knocks on Nix that I heard a lot from different sources pre draft. The upside is that he's playing well already.

So to your main point Grizz, I think youre right. Next years' Caleb should be better than this year's model.

But also on Nix, he may be ahead of the pack right now, but he may also be closer to his ceiling too?

[adam]

If you zoom out a little around Caleb's stats, considering the last few games, he really is doing amazing.

So he has 2,016 passing yards in 10 games which is good for 21st in the league. Kyler Murray in 10 games? 2,058 (42 more). Justin Herbert, 2,186. Jalen Hurts, 2,197. Then 11 games, Nix with 2,275, and Daniels with 2,338. So his production is right there, one more "good/great" game and he is in the middle of all the listed QBs for passing yardage. All the while he is the only QB in those names in the top 10 in Pressure Rate and sacks. 

Caleb started the season with a bunch of INTs, but since then has been stellar taking care of the ball. He is tied for 6th for Turnover Worthy Passes now down to 2.1%, even though is ADOT is 10th at 8.3. Somehow PFF only has receivers listed with 8 drops on the season. That is hard to believe as it feels like there have been at least 1-2 a game.

Caleb is also 6th in Rushing for a QB with only 10 fewer yards than Josh Allen in one fewer start. He is tied for the 2nd most 10+ yard runs for QBs trailing only Lamar Jackson.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

If you zoom out a little around Caleb's stats, considering the last few games, he really is doing amazing.

So he has 2,016 passing yards in 10 games which is good for 21st in the league. Kyler Murray in 10 games? 2,058 (42 more). Justin Herbert, 2,186. Jalen Hurts, 2,197. Then 11 games, Nix with 2,275, and Daniels with 2,338. So his production is right there, one more "good/great" game and he is in the middle of all the listed QBs for passing yardage. All the while he is the only QB in those names in the top 10 in Pressure Rate and sacks. 

Caleb started the season with a bunch of INTs, but since then has been stellar taking care of the ball. He is tied for 6th for Turnover Worthy Passes now down to 2.1%, even though is ADOT is 10th at 8.3. Somehow PFF only has receivers listed with 8 drops on the season. That is hard to believe as it feels like there have been at least 1-2 a game.

Caleb is also 6th in Rushing for a QB with only 10 fewer yards than Josh Allen in one fewer start. He is tied for the 2nd most 10+ yard runs for QBs trailing only Lamar Jackson.

it's clear the roster has talent and Caleb is a star in the making, but the coaching has been really screwing us. Youre right about his stats.

The only thing Id add is my constant refrain "thats because PFF is random"

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 hours ago, adam said:

If you zoom out a little around Caleb's stats, considering the last few games, he really is doing amazing.

So he has 2,016 passing yards in 10 games which is good for 21st in the league. Kyler Murray in 10 games? 2,058 (42 more). Justin Herbert, 2,186. Jalen Hurts, 2,197. Then 11 games, Nix with 2,275, and Daniels with 2,338. So his production is right there, one more "good/great" game and he is in the middle of all the listed QBs for passing yardage. All the while he is the only QB in those names in the top 10 in Pressure Rate and sacks. 

Caleb started the season with a bunch of INTs, but since then has been stellar taking care of the ball. He is tied for 6th for Turnover Worthy Passes now down to 2.1%, even though is ADOT is 10th at 8.3. Somehow PFF only has receivers listed with 8 drops on the season. That is hard to believe as it feels like there have been at least 1-2 a game.

Caleb is also 6th in Rushing for a QB with only 10 fewer yards than Josh Allen in one fewer start. He is tied for the 2nd most 10+ yard runs for QBs trailing only Lamar Jackson.

Add that his oline has been basically decimated with injuries too. The Bears do not have enough resources to fix that with needing a 3T, DE, S and WR too.