Next 4 games

[adam]

The Bears have 4 more games before their Week 7 early season bye. 3 home games and the only road game is 3 hours away in Indy.

There may not be an easier stretch of games all year. The combined record of the 4 teams is 0-8.

@ IND 0-2 (Richardson is boom or bust, plays into Bears strengths on defense, weakest defense faced so far potentially missing Buckner)
vs LAR 0-2 (decimated with injuries, no Kupp or Puka, -37 Pts Diff)
vs CAR 0-2 (just benched Young, have been outscored by 60 pts in 2 games)
vs JAX 0-2 (might be 0-5 or 1-4 by the time the Bears play them with HOU, BUF, and IND up next)

The Bears really need to go into their bye 5-1, at worst 4-2. 

 

[Stinger226]

If we go 5-1, how many people will still want everyone fired? Its always feast or famine for Bears fans.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

If we go 5-1, how many people will still want everyone fired? Its always feast or famine for Bears fans.

It's going to come down to the division. 3-3 should be the worst they do. Flus is still 11-25 as a HC. 9 wins is the floor for me with him. Anything less and he needs to go. 

[Mongo3451]

Am I the only one that didn't think this team was ready to compete to win the division?  We are not there yet.  This team is still learning how to compete to win.  To exacerbate our feelings we have a weak link to talk about.  We ain't that bad yet.

[adam]

Mongo,
I was just hoping for 3-3 in the Division, even splitting with every team. Winning the division would probably require 11-12 wins, probably 1-2 wins out of reach this season.

 

Next 3 opponents. If Waldron can't unlock the running game in the next 3 weeks, we might as well go 5 wide and pass on every down.

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Am I the only one that didn't think this team was ready to compete to win the division?  We are not there yet.  This team is still learning how to compete to win.  To exacerbate our feelings we have a weak link to talk about.  We ain't that bad yet.

I agree and I think any talk of going 5-1 on the next stretch is just that.  Could it happen, sure, they could also go 1-5, given pains with a rookie QB.  With that said - my hope is we go .500 in that stretch and see week after week growth and maturity from Caleb and the team.  Want to see him better handle the blitzes and make growth there, see him continue to make growth on taking the check down where appropriate, but also need to start seeing him make some of the big plays down the field (seeing him be calmer on the field which will lead to things slowing down and his natural accuracy to take over).  I also expect we'll see improvements in the chemistry of his wideouts and improvements with how the oline handles things.  A lot of this is on the players - but it is also on the coaches to at this point start simplifying and dialing things in so we can get good at a few things and than slowly branch it back out over 2nd half of the season as our QB matures, etc.  

I do believe our OC is asking Caleb to do more on the field than a typical rookie and has done less to protect him.  I think that is a sign of how highly they think of him, but it still can be a that was still a bit too much to handle so lets dial it back a bit. Its a careful delicacy to make sure you give him the confidence and protect him while also challenging him cause he clearly wants to be challenged and put a ton on himself.  I may be wrong - but I thought I saw a lot more at the huddle adjustments from him than I have seen any previous rookie on the Bears.  Not saying he is Peyton Manning or Brady at the line - but they seem to have been taking a "no training" wheels approach where as Daniels has had more structured run and roll-out plays designed to simplify the reads and concepts.  Haven't watched Nix enough to see what Payton is doing there.  

[Stinger226]

With our defense , it will keep us in games. As bad as the offense was, we had the ball at the end of the game with a chance. Considering the quality of the opponent, that's all you can ask for.

The offense will absolutely grow, anything in a winning season 9+ is a positive. CW has to be a part of that or we wont make it to nine. I predicted 12-5 because I'm selfish, not that realistic. We are right where most predicted us to be 1-1. 5-1 may be to hopeful but 4-2 is very doable. Anyone look at the rest of the conference? Philly-Dallas-GB-Detroit- Rams-SF? Who's the powerhouse? By the break we will have a clear vision of what we will be. 

The OC will figure it out-the OL will play better ( no juggernaut) and CW will be better. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Their schedule really until the Packers game looks incredibly favorable. Assuming relative health, they won't be a heavy underdog again until at least the Packers. 

Certainly, with IND and LA missing a lot of their key players the next couple weeks, the Bears have a realistic shot to run the table up to the London game. 4-1 would be a terrific start to the season. This week will be the key game, IMO. It's the most likely of the 3 (IND, LA, CAR) they could lose because it's on the road.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Their schedule really until the Packers game looks incredibly favorable. Assuming relative health, they won't be a heavy underdog again until at least the Packers. 

Certainly, with IND and LA missing a lot of their key players the next couple weeks, the Bears have a realistic shot to run the table up to the London game. 4-1 would be a terrific start to the season. This week will be the key game, IMO. It's the most likely of the 3 (IND, LA, CAR) they could lose because it's on the road.

4-2 is highly likely and 5-1 is possible. This team has enough talent to do that. As CW progresses we will be more dependant on him.

[adam]

HOU is a top 5 team. TEN is a bottom 10 team. IND, JAX, and LAR are all in the bottom 10, and CAR is 32nd. Depending on what metric is used, the Bears are anywhere from 15th-20th and ranked higher than their next 4 opponents, with 3 home games. 

[adam]

The next 5 games are going to be super interesting. The Bears should be favored in 4 games, and possibly all 5. Right now the only game they are not favored in is JAX at a neutral site. 

Just looking at a few team rating systems, the Bears are 16th using Sagarin Ratings (used for betting), 23rd in DVOA, and 19th in EPA/P. Sagarin Ratings weigh recent games more heavily than older games. The Bears have the 3 worst teams still left on their schedule based on the collective rankings, CAR, JAX, and NE. These are bad teams and must wins for the Bears. Then they have a comparable game against ARZ and their toughest matchup surprisingly against WAS. 

Bears 2-2 (16th - Sagarin Ratings) / 23rd DVOA / 19th EPA/P - AVG Rating=19th

• vs CAR 1-3 (32nd - Sagarin Ratings) / 28th DVOA / 28th EPA/P - AVG Rating=29th (DraftKings have Bears -3.5)
• vs JAX 0-4 (26th - Sagarin Ratings) / 30th DVOA / 31st EPA/P - AVG Rating=29th (DraftKings have Bears +1)
• BYE
• @ WAS 3-1 (23rd - Sagarin Ratings) / 16th DVOA / 11th EPA/P - AVG Rating=17th (DraftKings have Bears -2)
• @ ARZ 1-3 (25th - Sagarin Ratings) / 22nd DVOA / 21st EPA/P - AVG Rating=23rd (DraftKings have Bears -1.5)
• vs NE 1-3 (30th - Sagarin Ratings)  / 29th DVOA / 32nd EPA/P - AVG Rating=30th (DraftKings have Bears -5.5)

So is 3-2 a success in these next 5 because I almost feel like they need to go 4-1 in this stretch and hit GB at 6-3.

• vs GB 2-2 - 10th EPA
• vs MIN 4-0 - 3rd EPA
• @ DET (TNF) 3-1  - 6th EPA
• @ SF (after mini bye) 1-3  - 4th EPA
• @ MIN 4-0 - 3rd EPA
• vs DET 3-1  - 6th EPA
• vs SEA 3-1 - 7th EPA
• @ GB 2-2 - 10th EPA
• 22-10 (18-6 when they are not playing each other)

The worst team according to EPA is GB who are 10th. So the Bears last 8 games will be against top 10 EPA teams.  Just based on odds, they will probably only win between 1-3 of the final 8 and finish between 7 and 9 wins. Going 3-5 thru that gauntlet and finishing 9-8 would be an accomplishment. It would be epic to split the division and beat one of SF or SEA and go 4-4 to finish 10-7, but they need to improve weekly to have a shot at that.