adam Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 The Bears have 4 more games before their Week 7 early season bye. 3 home games and the only road game is 3 hours away in Indy. There may not be an easier stretch of games all year. The combined record of the 4 teams is 0-8. @ IND 0-2 (Richardson is boom or bust, plays into Bears strengths on defense, weakest defense faced so far potentially missing Buckner) vs LAR 0-2 (decimated with injuries, no Kupp or Puka, -37 Pts Diff) vs CAR 0-2 (just benched Young, have been outscored by 60 pts in 2 games) vs JAX 0-2 (might be 0-5 or 1-4 by the time the Bears play them with HOU, BUF, and IND up next) The Bears really need to go into their bye 5-1, at worst 4-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 If we go 5-1, how many people will still want everyone fired? Its always feast or famine for Bears fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 1 hour ago, Stinger226 said: If we go 5-1, how many people will still want everyone fired? Its always feast or famine for Bears fans. It's going to come down to the division. 3-3 should be the worst they do. Flus is still 11-25 as a HC. 9 wins is the floor for me with him. Anything less and he needs to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 Am I the only one that didn't think this team was ready to compete to win the division? We are not there yet. This team is still learning how to compete to win. To exacerbate our feelings we have a weak link to talk about. We ain't that bad yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 Mongo, I was just hoping for 3-3 in the Division, even splitting with every team. Winning the division would probably require 11-12 wins, probably 1-2 wins out of reach this season. Next 3 opponents. If Waldron can't unlock the running game in the next 3 weeks, we might as well go 5 wide and pass on every down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said: Am I the only one that didn't think this team was ready to compete to win the division? We are not there yet. This team is still learning how to compete to win. To exacerbate our feelings we have a weak link to talk about. We ain't that bad yet. I agree and I think any talk of going 5-1 on the next stretch is just that. Could it happen, sure, they could also go 1-5, given pains with a rookie QB. With that said - my hope is we go .500 in that stretch and see week after week growth and maturity from Caleb and the team. Want to see him better handle the blitzes and make growth there, see him continue to make growth on taking the check down where appropriate, but also need to start seeing him make some of the big plays down the field (seeing him be calmer on the field which will lead to things slowing down and his natural accuracy to take over). I also expect we'll see improvements in the chemistry of his wideouts and improvements with how the oline handles things. A lot of this is on the players - but it is also on the coaches to at this point start simplifying and dialing things in so we can get good at a few things and than slowly branch it back out over 2nd half of the season as our QB matures, etc. I do believe our OC is asking Caleb to do more on the field than a typical rookie and has done less to protect him. I think that is a sign of how highly they think of him, but it still can be a that was still a bit too much to handle so lets dial it back a bit. Its a careful delicacy to make sure you give him the confidence and protect him while also challenging him cause he clearly wants to be challenged and put a ton on himself. I may be wrong - but I thought I saw a lot more at the huddle adjustments from him than I have seen any previous rookie on the Bears. Not saying he is Peyton Manning or Brady at the line - but they seem to have been taking a "no training" wheels approach where as Daniels has had more structured run and roll-out plays designed to simplify the reads and concepts. Haven't watched Nix enough to see what Payton is doing there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 With our defense , it will keep us in games. As bad as the offense was, we had the ball at the end of the game with a chance. Considering the quality of the opponent, that's all you can ask for. The offense will absolutely grow, anything in a winning season 9+ is a positive. CW has to be a part of that or we wont make it to nine. I predicted 12-5 because I'm selfish, not that realistic. We are right where most predicted us to be 1-1. 5-1 may be to hopeful but 4-2 is very doable. Anyone look at the rest of the conference? Philly-Dallas-GB-Detroit- Rams-SF? Who's the powerhouse? By the break we will have a clear vision of what we will be. The OC will figure it out-the OL will play better ( no juggernaut) and CW will be better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears4Ever_34 Posted September 19 Report Share Posted September 19 Their schedule really until the Packers game looks incredibly favorable. Assuming relative health, they won't be a heavy underdog again until at least the Packers. Certainly, with IND and LA missing a lot of their key players the next couple weeks, the Bears have a realistic shot to run the table up to the London game. 4-1 would be a terrific start to the season. This week will be the key game, IMO. It's the most likely of the 3 (IND, LA, CAR) they could lose because it's on the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted September 20 Report Share Posted September 20 3 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said: Their schedule really until the Packers game looks incredibly favorable. Assuming relative health, they won't be a heavy underdog again until at least the Packers. Certainly, with IND and LA missing a lot of their key players the next couple weeks, the Bears have a realistic shot to run the table up to the London game. 4-1 would be a terrific start to the season. This week will be the key game, IMO. It's the most likely of the 3 (IND, LA, CAR) they could lose because it's on the road. 4-2 is highly likely and 5-1 is possible. This team has enough talent to do that. As CW progresses we will be more dependant on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 20 Author Report Share Posted September 20 HOU is a top 5 team. TEN is a bottom 10 team. IND, JAX, and LAR are all in the bottom 10, and CAR is 32nd. Depending on what metric is used, the Bears are anywhere from 15th-20th and ranked higher than their next 4 opponents, with 3 home games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 1 Author Report Share Posted October 1 The next 5 games are going to be super interesting. The Bears should be favored in 4 games, and possibly all 5. Right now the only game they are not favored in is JAX at a neutral site. Just looking at a few team rating systems, the Bears are 16th using Sagarin Ratings (used for betting), 23rd in DVOA, and 19th in EPA/P. Sagarin Ratings weigh recent games more heavily than older games. The Bears have the 3 worst teams still left on their schedule based on the collective rankings, CAR, JAX, and NE. These are bad teams and must wins for the Bears. Then they have a comparable game against ARZ and their toughest matchup surprisingly against WAS. Bears 2-2 (16th - Sagarin Ratings) / 23rd DVOA / 19th EPA/P - AVG Rating=19th vs CAR 1-3 (32nd - Sagarin Ratings) / 28th DVOA / 28th EPA/P - AVG Rating=29th (DraftKings have Bears -3.5) vs JAX 0-4 (26th - Sagarin Ratings) / 30th DVOA / 31st EPA/P - AVG Rating=29th (DraftKings have Bears +1) BYE @ WAS 3-1 (23rd - Sagarin Ratings) / 16th DVOA / 11th EPA/P - AVG Rating=17th (DraftKings have Bears -2) @ ARZ 1-3 (25th - Sagarin Ratings) / 22nd DVOA / 21st EPA/P - AVG Rating=23rd (DraftKings have Bears -1.5) vs NE 1-3 (30th - Sagarin Ratings) / 29th DVOA / 32nd EPA/P - AVG Rating=30th (DraftKings have Bears -5.5) So is 3-2 a success in these next 5 because I almost feel like they need to go 4-1 in this stretch and hit GB at 6-3. vs GB 2-2 - 10th EPA vs MIN 4-0 - 3rd EPA @ DET (TNF) 3-1 - 6th EPA @ SF (after mini bye) 1-3 - 4th EPA @ MIN 4-0 - 3rd EPA vs DET 3-1 - 6th EPA vs SEA 3-1 - 7th EPA @ GB 2-2 - 10th EPA 22-10 (18-6 when they are not playing each other) The worst team according to EPA is GB who are 10th. So the Bears last 8 games will be against top 10 EPA teams. Just based on odds, they will probably only win between 1-3 of the final 8 and finish between 7 and 9 wins. Going 3-5 thru that gauntlet and finishing 9-8 would be an accomplishment. It would be epic to split the division and beat one of SF or SEA and go 4-4 to finish 10-7, but they need to improve weekly to have a shot at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 5 Author Report Share Posted October 5 I still can't believe JAX is the only winless team, and there is only one undefeated team left after 4 weeks. Parity is really working this season, probably due to all the injuries. It will be interesting to see which 3-loss team hits 1-4 this weekend, because coming back from that big of a hole is pretty much insurmountable. JAX at 0-4 already seems to be there and are probably one more loss away from firing their HC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 5 Report Share Posted October 5 2 hours ago, adam said: I still can't believe JAX is the only winless team, and there is only one undefeated team left after 4 weeks. Parity is really working this season, probably due to all the injuries. It will be interesting to see which 3-loss team hits 1-4 this weekend, because coming back from that big of a hole is pretty much insurmountable. JAX at 0-4 already seems to be there and are probably one more loss away from firing their HC. I heard an interesting stat, the underdogs are winning 72% of the time. Now Im sure its against the spread but is a high percentage for any football stat. So upsets can happen at anytime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 5 Author Report Share Posted October 5 1 hour ago, Stinger226 said: I heard an interesting stat, the underdogs are winning 72% of the time. Now Im sure its against the spread but is a high percentage for any football stat. So upsets can happen at anytime. Good teams beat the teams they are supposed to beat. Losing at home, to a Carolina team that is banged up would be a terrible loss. It's a home game, conference game, that you are favored in. This is a must-win. They can't take a long flight on Monday to Europe with a bad loss in their mouths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 6 Author Report Share Posted October 6 2-1 in the last 3, need a win against JAX in London. JAX just won so they won't be as desperate as if they were coming in winless. JAX's offense came alive, Lawrence with a 300-yd game, Bigsby with a 100 yard rushing game, Thomas with a 100 yard receiving game. Their defense allowed 34 to a Flacco led Colts team without Taylor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 15 Author Report Share Posted October 15 Bears now 4-2 at the bye. The next 3 games are huge before the gauntlet of death starts with GB in Week 11. Week 8 - @ WAS 4-2 (19th - Sagarin Ratings) / 12th DVOA / 8th EPA/P - AVG Rating=13th (DraftKings have Bears -2) Week 9 - @ ARZ 2-4 (23rd - Sagarin Ratings) / 22nd DVOA / 24th EPA/P - AVG Rating=23rd (DraftKings have Bears -1.5) Week 10 - vs NE 1-5 (30th - Sagarin Ratings) / 29th DVOA / 30th EPA/P - AVG Rating=30th (DraftKings have Bears -5.5) The Bears are currently favored in the next 3 games and based on all metrics are the best overall team. WAS's offense is the only elite unit the Bears will face in the next 3 games. WAS defense is 28th. 2-1 or 3-0 should be the outcome of these games and the Bears should go into the GB game at 6-3 or 7-2. MIN x2 (hard to gauge these games, but they should be close, especially if Bears offense continues to improve) W / L GB x2 (always a challenge, but I feel much better about this matchup than before) W / L DET x2 (Without Hutchinson, this defense is nowhere near as intimidating, feels like splitting at a minimum here) W / L SF (Depends on injuries but in SF, I will give it to the 49ers) - L SEA (This feels like a win, especially at home and not having to travel to the PNW). W I am counting 4-4 thru the gauntlet for a 10-7 or 11-6 record depending on how the next 3 games go. That record should get at least a WC spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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