Hear me out on Poles

[adam]

Warning Long Post Incoming

I am starting to think Poles is just a very average GM that got lucky. Just think if the Bears didn't have the #1 pick in 2023? 

He picked Eberflus over a bunch of better options. There were all kinds of problems with other staff members and in less than 3 years, they are already on their 2nd OC, DC, RB Coach and a whole bunch of other coaching positions.

He got rid of players like Montgomery who signed for less than the Bears paid Swift for and Monty is clearly the better RB. He let other players walk like Daniels only to pay someone like Davis. He replaced Mooney with Tyler Scott.  He drafted Gill, to cut him and draft Taylor in the 4th round for Taylor to be worse than Gill thru 3 weeks.

It goes on and on. 

Just take an honest look at his draft picks with Approximate Values, they are not good. Only a few players are exceeding their draft slots, but most are below.

1st - 4th Round Picks:

Gordon - Slot Corner (AV - 7)  -5 AV from Draft Slot 
Brisker - Safety (AV - 9) -2 AV from Draft Slot 
Jones Jr - KR/WR (AV - 3) -5 AV from Draft Slot  (how many games did he lose for the Bears?)
Wright - RT (AV - 8 ) - 0 AV from Draft Slot 
Dexter - DT  (AV - 2) -2 AV from Draft Slot
Stevenson - CB  (AV - 6) +2 AV from Draft Slot
Pickens - DT (AV - 1) -2 AV from Draft Slot (feels like a waste of a pick at this point)
Johnson - RB  (AV - 4) +2 AV from Draft Slot
Scott - WR  (AV - 2)  - 0 AV from Draft Slot (it feels like he has dropped more passes than he has targets)
--------------
Poles is -12AV for drafted players from 2022-23 from rounds 1-4. That is equivalent to the #3 pick in 2023 or Pick#38 from the 2022 draft playing for 2 years. 

Braxton Jones is the only player who has completely exceeded his draft slot out of 21 draft picks from 22-23. You need more players to exceed their draft position in order to improve more than the next team (see MIN for example). Poles has used 13% of his draft capital on Punters.

In 2024 his 4 picks in rounds 1-4:

Williams - QB (no-brainer selection unless you traded down for draft haul and kept Fields)
Odunze - WR (no-brainer when ATL picked Penix)
Amegadjie - OT (1 of 12 players in the top 75 that have yet to appear in a game for their team)
Taylor - P (Currently a bottom 5 punter with a lower Punt Average than Gill had last season)

His 2024 FAs: Swift - Waste of money, Everett - lol, Bates, Byard, Pryor, Owens, Ogbongbemiga, Shelton, Pettis, Martin, Cowart, Curhan. Outside of Byard, is any other player even worth the roster spot at this point? That seems like a lot of misses. Maybe Owens?

He traded for Keenan Allen, and he has missed 85% of the season after 3 weeks. 

How about 2023? Nathan Peterman, Dylan Cole, Donta Foreman, Robert Tonyan, Andrew Billings, PJ Walker, Travis Homer, DeMarcus Walker, Tremaine Edmunds, Nate Davis,  and TJ Edwards. Billings, Edmunds, and Edwards, and to an extent Walker have worked out as they are still here and productive, but guys like Tonyan and Davis actually lost games for the Bears in 2023 because of how bad they played. 

He got fleeced on the Claypool trade and won the Sweat trade. So that seems like a break even, which is not good all things considered.

So here we are after 3 years of the reset. In free agency, Poles has acquired Billings and Edwards who seem to be the only two players that have exceeded their contract values. Edmunds cap hit is $22M. 

For this year's cap, Keenan Allen has a $23M cap hit (2nd on team) and has barely played. Nate Davis has the 6th biggest cap hit and is arguably the worst player on the 53-man roster. DeMarcus Walker is 7th and is a rotational DL at best. Swift is 12th and is a waste of cap space and a roster spot. Everett is 13th and is the same. That is $54M of the cap, 24% of the cap for Allen, Davis, Walker, Swift, and Everett. Plus they gave up a 4th for Allen (4 receptions) and a 4th for Bates (38 snaps).

Between the coaching choices and lack of draft successes, is it really a surprise that this regime has the record that they currently have going into Year 3?

[Mongo3451]

I'm getting there quickly.  For reasons of OL only.  Many unnecessary additions were made that took away from solidifying the most important unit.  The difference between us and the rest of the division is that they have significantly better lines.  Then, we look at Justin being 3-0.  Why?  They invested heavily in their OL.  And they have James Daniels, who should still be on our team. 

We didn't need Swift, Everett or Allen.  Tory Taylor is a weapon, but really.  We didn't need him.  Now, they are having him playing too cute and it's affected his play.

Back to football Poles!  Study the picture...

[adam]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm getting there quickly.  For reasons of OL only.  Many unnecessary additions were made that took away from solidifying the most important unit.  The difference between us and the rest of the division is that they have significantly better lines.  Then, we look at Justin being 3-0.  Why?  They invested heavily in their OL.  And they have James Daniels, who should still be on our team. 

We didn't need Swift, Everett or Allen.  Tory Taylor is a weapon, but really.  We didn't need him.  Now, they are having him playing too cute and it's affected his play.

Back to football Poles!  Study the picture...

Someone made a good point, and I can't remember who said it, but Poles is acquiring OLinemen like himself. They are passive/timid. Outside of Jenkins, every other O-Lineman is a nice guy, and Jenkins was not drafted by Poles. Wright, nice guy, Braxton, nice guy, Shelton, Bates, Davis, all nice guys. We need dawgs on the line.

In 2022, Poles used pick #71 on Velus Jones, who was only good because he was 24 playing against 18 year olds. The next pick was Abraham Lucas, a perennial starter for SEA. Pick #77, Bernhard Raimann, OL for IND, full time starter. Go down a few more picks, there is Dylan Parham, starter for LVR. So Poles passed on 3x starting OL to pick an old gadget WR who could not catch a cold. Brilliant. 

Then when you think there is no way he could do something like that again, in 2023 he drafts Dexter and Stevenson (trading up) with John Michael Schmitz and O'Cryus Torrence on the board. Then he drafted Pickens with Tank Dell and Josh Downs on the board. Come on dude. 

So we get to 2024, only a few picks and OLine is critical. He goes with Amegadjie with Matt Gonclaves, Christian Haynes, Dominic Puni, and Zak Zinter on the board. Those 4 guys went within the next 11 picks and all have started in 3 games this year. Amegadjie has yet to appear. 

How bad does the Taylor pick look now after 3 weeks. The picks right after him, Cade Stover, TE for HOU, Malik Mustapha, DB for SF, and Bucky Irving, RB for TB. All have played in 3 games for their respective teams while Taylor has punted worse than a UDFA punter. Oh and Braelon Allen, RB for NYJ went 12 picks after Taylor.

The league is all about efficiency. Getting the most of out the cap and your draft capital. Poles is doing neither and it shows on the field. 

[BearFan PHX]

I think there is an upside to team chemistry, but i also think Poles places too much value on nice guys, especially on the OL.

I think Poles personal relationships with the players is clouding his judgement? This is what i was trying to say about the hugging Justin. I am VERY glad it didnt stop him from trading Justin, but i still think he needs to be more of an authority figure and less one of the guys.

I also worry that Ian Cunningham is the brains.

Im not ready to turn on poles yet, I think he's done a lot of very good things for us. But he is not infallible by any means.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think there is an upside to team chemistry, but i also think Poles places too much value on nice guys, especially on the OL.

I think Poles personal relationships with the players is clouding his judgement? This is what i was trying to say about the hugging Justin. I am VERY glad it didnt stop him from trading Justin, but i still think he needs to be more of an authority figure and less one of the guys.

I also worry that Ian Cunningham is the brains.

Im not ready to turn on poles yet, I think he's done a lot of very good things for us. But he is not infallible by any means.

I think Poles obtained OL in his own eyes. Medium talent, hard worker, good character and to be developed. He has a 2nd round draft pick that has good tape but has an injury history, (Jenkins), a 1st round RT that everyone sees a high upside. Then his( I can develop him player).Brandon Jones (has played above his draft position), Nate Davis (above average play history) but coasting( bad choice). Bates (over achiever with an injury) jury still out on him. Shelton is a journeyman that I think was brought in as a backup. Kiwan has high upside but came back from surgery and isnt ready yet. Booker is injuried but not looked on as a starter. Ironically our worse players last yr are playing well. Patrick as a OG on a high level offense. Whitehair is an average starter for Raiders that is backed up by JPJ, someone everyone wanted us to draft. 

Everyone wants 1st round starters on the OL. You never see that. Last year part of Texans success was 3 1st round starters already on the line. Everyone has to develop players and we are not there yet. As of now he gets a C- as a grade.

Watch this video.

 

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

I said at the time that I thought he should have been fired the moment he decided to keep Matt Eberflus. Every sane person knew the most logical decision in the moment to make was to reset this coaching staff under a new rookie QB and keep everybody on the same timeline, and yet, here we are repeating history. 

If that wasn't bad enough, they also missed out on Jim Harbaugh, who was the homerun, can't miss coaching candidate of the last decade, and other bright offensive minds in Bobby Slowik or Ben Johnson. It was the absolute worst possible decision the Bears could have made in that situation, and one they may end up regretting forever depending on what ends up happening with Caleb.

[BearFan PHX]

18 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I said at the time that I thought he should have been fired the moment he decided to keep Matt Eberflus. Every sane person knew the most logical decision in the moment to make was to reset this coaching staff under a new rookie QB and keep everybody on the same timeline, and yet, here we are repeating history. 

If that wasn't bad enough, they also missed out on Jim Harbaugh, who was the homerun, can't miss coaching candidate of the last decade, and other bright offensive minds in Bobby Slowik or Ben Johnson. It was the absolute worst possible decision the Bears could have made in that situation, and one they may end up regretting forever depending on what ends up happening with Caleb.

I said something pretty close too. I have to admit Ive liked a lot of what our front office has done. But theyve made some big mistakes too.

I think I give Poles next years offseason to sort out the OL, and I wouldny mind if it was a whole new offensive set of coaches and head coach.

I would keep the defensive coaches, with the blessing of the new HC of course. If he has something else in mind, he IS the HC, and we dont need to Bear him with an arranged marriage

[adam]

So here is the thing, how long does Poles or Eberflus got? Is Poles going to get another coaching hire?

Look at it this way:

I think 3rd Round picks are the best representation of a GMs skill to evaluate talent, because it is after the top 50 "no brainers" but before the drop off in talent at around 100.  3rd Round picks are #64-100 or so with comp picks.

The Bears 3rd Round picks under Poles:
Jones Jr, Pickens, Amegadjie

That is absolutely gross and should be a fireable offense. Poles fleeced himself. Literally negative contributions to the team. It would've been better for him to just skip these picks than to use them and force these guys onto the 53-man. Amegadjie was injured and has been injured, so he may be good, but you don't use a 3rd Round pick on an injured player with a 4th-5th round grade. 

Honestly, the NFL grouping of owners, GMs, and for a big group of coaches feels like corporate America. It is one big self licking ice cream cone. VPs just jump between companies because companies require VP experience to become a VP with them. So the same group just changes hands year after year. They cut staff to make margins look good before they leave, then the bottom falls out and the new guy has nowhere to go but up. It feels like the cap in the NFL. One GM mortgages the future, it doesn't work, so he is fired and moves to a new org, then the new GM gets a fresh slate to have bad earnings for a few years while he cleans up the mess to eventually do the same thing. Rinse repeat. 

I was really excited about Poles, but when you take an honest look at the situation, he continually mismanages everything but one or two no-brainer moves that have made him look like the shrewd GM, when in reality, he just got lucky being in the right place at the right time thanks to Lovie. Please prove me wrong.

[Stinger226]

He deserves to take heat on several moves but no GM wins on every transaction. I look at the overall picture and it is in a plus. We had deep cap issues and one of the worst rosters in the league. In his third yr, he has us on the brink of a good team. This yr will be his good/bad GM season. If we have a winning season, right on schedule, if below that threasehold, he will deserve to be hammered. He siad 4-5 yrs to remake this team, year 3.

I think we are in an early season over reaction. We are 1-2 and every game came down to the last series of every game. Be honest , who thought we were on schedule to blow out teams and be undefeated at this stage? No one but maybe me. 

With a rookie QB this will take more time to get up to speed. Basically groomming CW should be the biggest goal. Winning is the second goal, and thirdly develop the roster. At 1-2 none of those goals should be considered a failure just yet. I want to see what the record is at our bye week, not now. 

[adam]

Did anyone see Daniels passing chart? Does anyone see a trend?

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Did anyone see Daniels passing chart? Does anyone see a trend?

 

He is comfortable throwing right, but he put it to the Bengals at their house.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

For comparison, it is good to see Williams hitting the whole field. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 9/22/2024 at 8:55 PM, adam said:

Warning Long Post Incoming

I am starting to think Poles is just a very average GM that got lucky. Just think if the Bears didn't have the #1 pick in 2023? 

He picked Eberflus over a bunch of better options. There were all kinds of problems with other staff members and in less than 3 years, they are already on their 2nd OC, DC, RB Coach and a whole bunch of other coaching positions.

He got rid of players like Montgomery who signed for less than the Bears paid Swift for and Monty is clearly the better RB. He let other players walk like Daniels only to pay someone like Davis. He replaced Mooney with Tyler Scott.  He drafted Gill, to cut him and draft Taylor in the 4th round for Taylor to be worse than Gill thru 3 weeks.

It goes on and on. 

Just take an honest look at his draft picks with Approximate Values, they are not good. Only a few players are exceeding their draft slots, but most are below.

1st - 4th Round Picks:

Gordon - Slot Corner (AV - 7)  -5 AV from Draft Slot 
Brisker - Safety (AV - 9) -2 AV from Draft Slot 
Jones Jr - KR/WR (AV - 3) -5 AV from Draft Slot  (how many games did he lose for the Bears?)
Wright - RT (AV - 8 ) - 0 AV from Draft Slot 
Dexter - DT  (AV - 2) -2 AV from Draft Slot
Stevenson - CB  (AV - 6) +2 AV from Draft Slot
Pickens - DT (AV - 1) -2 AV from Draft Slot (feels like a waste of a pick at this point)
Johnson - RB  (AV - 4) +2 AV from Draft Slot
Scott - WR  (AV - 2)  - 0 AV from Draft Slot (it feels like he has dropped more passes than he has targets)
--------------
Poles is -12AV for drafted players from 2022-23 from rounds 1-4. That is equivalent to the #3 pick in 2023 or Pick#38 from the 2022 draft playing for 2 years. 

Braxton Jones is the only player who has completely exceeded his draft slot out of 21 draft picks from 22-23. You need more players to exceed their draft position in order to improve more than the next team (see MIN for example). Poles has used 13% of his draft capital on Punters.

In 2024 his 4 picks in rounds 1-4:

Williams - QB (no-brainer selection unless you traded down for draft haul and kept Fields)
Odunze - WR (no-brainer when ATL picked Penix)
Amegadjie - OT (1 of 12 players in the top 75 that have yet to appear in a game for their team)
Taylor - P (Currently a bottom 5 punter with a lower Punt Average than Gill had last season)

His 2024 FAs: Swift - Waste of money, Everett - lol, Bates, Byard, Pryor, Owens, Ogbongbemiga, Shelton, Pettis, Martin, Cowart, Curhan. Outside of Byard, is any other player even worth the roster spot at this point? That seems like a lot of misses. Maybe Owens?

He traded for Keenan Allen, and he has missed 85% of the season after 3 weeks. 

How about 2023? Nathan Peterman, Dylan Cole, Donta Foreman, Robert Tonyan, Andrew Billings, PJ Walker, Travis Homer, DeMarcus Walker, Tremaine Edmunds, Nate Davis,  and TJ Edwards. Billings, Edmunds, and Edwards, and to an extent Walker have worked out as they are still here and productive, but guys like Tonyan and Davis actually lost games for the Bears in 2023 because of how bad they played. 

He got fleeced on the Claypool trade and won the Sweat trade. So that seems like a break even, which is not good all things considered.

So here we are after 3 years of the reset. In free agency, Poles has acquired Billings and Edwards who seem to be the only two players that have exceeded their contract values. Edmunds cap hit is $22M. 

For this year's cap, Keenan Allen has a $23M cap hit (2nd on team) and has barely played. Nate Davis has the 6th biggest cap hit and is arguably the worst player on the 53-man roster. DeMarcus Walker is 7th and is a rotational DL at best. Swift is 12th and is a waste of cap space and a roster spot. Everett is 13th and is the same. That is $54M of the cap, 24% of the cap for Allen, Davis, Walker, Swift, and Everett. Plus they gave up a 4th for Allen (4 receptions) and a 4th for Bates (38 snaps).

Between the coaching choices and lack of draft successes, is it really a surprise that this regime has the record that they currently have going into Year 3?

And to add to the X (Twitter) trending topic, how about Darnell Wright vs Jalen Carter.  Wright has regressed and seems lost this year.  He should be excelling and playing near probowl level.  A high first round RT is a luxury when top 10 picks need to be difference makers. 

[Lucky Luciano]

26 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

And to add to the X (Twitter) trending topic, how about Darnell Wright vs Jalen Carter.  Wright has regressed and seems lost this year.  He should be excelling and playing near probowl level.  A high first round RT is a luxury when top 10 picks need to be difference makers. 

from my observation over the decades it is usually the 2nd year that they struggle the most. the assignments by the offense are more complex because he has past the rookie stage. there is game film on them and it takes time for the player to adjust to new schemes against him. by year 3 the dust should be settling and if he is a good player it will show and grow from that point on.

not that worried yet.