Hear me out on Poles

[Waiting4Godot]

On 9/23/2024 at 2:55 AM, adam said:

Warning Long Post Incoming

I am starting to think Poles is just a very average GM that got lucky. Just think if the Bears didn't have the #1 pick in 2023? 

He picked Eberflus over a bunch of better options. There were all kinds of problems with other staff members and in less than 3 years, they are already on their 2nd OC, DC, RB Coach and a whole bunch of other coaching positions.

He got rid of players like Montgomery who signed for less than the Bears paid Swift for and Monty is clearly the better RB. He let other players walk like Daniels only to pay someone like Davis. He replaced Mooney with Tyler Scott.  He drafted Gill, to cut him and draft Taylor in the 4th round for Taylor to be worse than Gill thru 3 weeks.

It goes on and on. 

Just take an honest look at his draft picks with Approximate Values, they are not good. Only a few players are exceeding their draft slots, but most are below.

1st - 4th Round Picks:

Gordon - Slot Corner (AV - 7)  -5 AV from Draft Slot 
Brisker - Safety (AV - 9) -2 AV from Draft Slot 
Jones Jr - KR/WR (AV - 3) -5 AV from Draft Slot  (how many games did he lose for the Bears?)
Wright - RT (AV - 8 ) - 0 AV from Draft Slot 
Dexter - DT  (AV - 2) -2 AV from Draft Slot
Stevenson - CB  (AV - 6) +2 AV from Draft Slot
Pickens - DT (AV - 1) -2 AV from Draft Slot (feels like a waste of a pick at this point)
Johnson - RB  (AV - 4) +2 AV from Draft Slot
Scott - WR  (AV - 2)  - 0 AV from Draft Slot (it feels like he has dropped more passes than he has targets)
--------------
Poles is -12AV for drafted players from 2022-23 from rounds 1-4. That is equivalent to the #3 pick in 2023 or Pick#38 from the 2022 draft playing for 2 years. 

Braxton Jones is the only player who has completely exceeded his draft slot out of 21 draft picks from 22-23. You need more players to exceed their draft position in order to improve more than the next team (see MIN for example). Poles has used 13% of his draft capital on Punters.

In 2024 his 4 picks in rounds 1-4:

Williams - QB (no-brainer selection unless you traded down for draft haul and kept Fields)
Odunze - WR (no-brainer when ATL picked Penix)
Amegadjie - OT (1 of 12 players in the top 75 that have yet to appear in a game for their team)
Taylor - P (Currently a bottom 5 punter with a lower Punt Average than Gill had last season)

His 2024 FAs: Swift - Waste of money, Everett - lol, Bates, Byard, Pryor, Owens, Ogbongbemiga, Shelton, Pettis, Martin, Cowart, Curhan. Outside of Byard, is any other player even worth the roster spot at this point? That seems like a lot of misses. Maybe Owens?

He traded for Keenan Allen, and he has missed 85% of the season after 3 weeks. 

How about 2023? Nathan Peterman, Dylan Cole, Donta Foreman, Robert Tonyan, Andrew Billings, PJ Walker, Travis Homer, DeMarcus Walker, Tremaine Edmunds, Nate Davis,  and TJ Edwards. Billings, Edmunds, and Edwards, and to an extent Walker have worked out as they are still here and productive, but guys like Tonyan and Davis actually lost games for the Bears in 2023 because of how bad they played. 

He got fleeced on the Claypool trade and won the Sweat trade. So that seems like a break even, which is not good all things considered.

So here we are after 3 years of the reset. In free agency, Poles has acquired Billings and Edwards who seem to be the only two players that have exceeded their contract values. Edmunds cap hit is $22M. 

For this year's cap, Keenan Allen has a $23M cap hit (2nd on team) and has barely played. Nate Davis has the 6th biggest cap hit and is arguably the worst player on the 53-man roster. DeMarcus Walker is 7th and is a rotational DL at best. Swift is 12th and is a waste of cap space and a roster spot. Everett is 13th and is the same. That is $54M of the cap, 24% of the cap for Allen, Davis, Walker, Swift, and Everett. Plus they gave up a 4th for Allen (4 receptions) and a 4th for Bates (38 snaps).

Between the coaching choices and lack of draft successes, is it really a surprise that this regime has the record that they currently have going into Year 3?

Where hiring is concerned, it seems to me that the Bears search out football staff based on a candidate's compliance with an identikit list of personal characteristics that are wholly unrelated to their being qualified to succeed in actually doing the job. In essence, to be recruited in Chicago your face needs to fit a profile that the McCaskey family deems consistent with its own personally-held values, which means the key to getting a job with the Bears is to look right, talk right, not swear, and so on. That's why we've had years of the team in the hands of "grey men"; high character (sic) individuals like Poles, Eberflus, Nagy, Pace, and so on none of whom are qualified for their jobs but all of whom you'd introduce to your mother (she's called Virginia, by the way). Which of them, if you were rational, would you really let anywhere near running your pro football team? That was a rhetorical question.

The proof? Well, Eberflus is still here, isn't he? There wasn't a single compelling reason to be drawn from two years of evidence that suggested keeping him at the end of last season would be a good idea, other than his face still fitting the personal profile the McCaskey's want from their head coach. And Flus' great leap forward between years two and three? To burnish his profile with a new haircut and beard, further qualifying him as a McCaskey-fit head coach. But all he really achieved was proving that the old adage is true: You can't polish a turd (but you can roll it in glitter). 

[Stinger226]

I dont think George is running anything anymore. We have Warren, then Poles/Cunningham and Flus. So if this regime fails it will be on Warren-Poles not George. Poles came in saying it will take him 4-5 yrs to rebuild this team into a consistant winner, its yr 3. This yr will be the proof of his plan 7-10 or 9-8, 10-7, or 11-6. 

I cant say its not working in only the 3rd game  of the 3rd season and Im Peter Positive, get back to me in 2 months.

Yes some things dont look good but what do you think the SB contenders fans are saying in SF 1-2, Dallas 1-2, Cinn 0-3, and Miami 1-2? Because we choose the blue chip QB, I think we need to let the season play out. Typical rookie QBs look like CW right now, Stroud was the outlier.

[Waiting4Godot]

15 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I dont think George is running anything anymore. We have Warren, then Poles/Cunningham and Flus. So if this regime fails it will be on Warren-Poles not George. Poles came in saying it will take him 4-5 yrs to rebuild this team into a consistant winner, its yr 3. This yr will be the proof of his plan 7-10 or 9-8, 10-7, or 11-6. 

I cant say its not working in only the 3rd game  of the 3rd season and Im Peter Positive, get back to me in 2 months.

Yes some things dont look good but what do you think the SB contenders fans are saying in SF 1-2, Dallas 1-2, Cinn 0-3, and Miami 1-2? Because we choose the blue chip QB, I think we need to let the season play out. Typical rookie QBs look like CW right now, Stroud was the outlier.

I do agree with a lot of what you've said but:

1. And to whom does Warren answer? George. Eventually, it's a McCaskey at the top of the mountain. And garbage rolls downhill.

2. Why is Daniels thriving in Washington with fewer weapons to support him than Caleb has, but with a "modern" OC (who'd already coached Caleb at USC) but who the Bears turned down to hire Waldron?

3. It didn't take Houston's new GM/Coach five years to build a .500 team. Doesn't look like it'll take Washington's that long, either. To name just two franchises turning things around.

I don't think, for the record, that Poles has done an awful job (unlike Eberflus, who HAS done an awful job). But I don't think he's done a great one, either. 

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, Waiting4Godot said:

I do agree with a lot of what you've said but:

1. And to whom does Warren answer? George. Eventually, it's a McCaskey at the top of the mountain. And garbage rolls downhill.

2. Why is Daniels thriving in Washington with fewer weapons to support him than Caleb has, but with a "modern" OC (who'd already coached Caleb at USC) but who the Bears turned down to hire Waldron?

3. It didn't take Houston's new GM/Coach five years to build a .500 team. Doesn't look like it'll take Washington's that long, either. To name just two franchises turning things around.

I don't think, for the record, that Poles has done an awful job (unlike Eberflus, who HAS done an awful job). But I don't think he's done a great one, either. 

I dont really disagree with you other than its kind of early to drive off the cliff, just saying 2 months will give us a better picture to discuss who stays and who should leave. You may be right about everything. If we are 4-2 going into the break will you have a different opinion? Or 3-3? 2-4 will definititly have me complaining. 

[BearFan PHX]

9 hours ago, Waiting4Godot said:

Where hiring is concerned, it seems to me that the Bears search out football staff based on a candidate's compliance with an identikit list of personal characteristics that are wholly unrelated to their being qualified to succeed in actually doing the job. In essence, to be recruited in Chicago your face needs to fit a profile that the McCaskey family deems consistent with its own personally-held values, which means the key to getting a job with the Bears is to look right, talk right, not swear, and so on. That's why we've had years of the team in the hands of "grey men"; high character (sic) individuals like Poles, Eberflus, Nagy, Pace, and so on none of whom are qualified for their jobs but all of whom you'd introduce to your mother (she's called Virginia, by the way). Which of them, if you were rational, would you really let anywhere near running your pro football team? That was a rhetorical question.

The proof? Well, Eberflus is still here, isn't he? There wasn't a single compelling reason to be drawn from two years of evidence that suggested keeping him at the end of last season would be a good idea, other than his face still fitting the personal profile the McCaskey's want from their head coach. And Flus' great leap forward between years two and three? To burnish his profile with a new haircut and beard, further qualifying him as a McCaskey-fit head coach. But all he really achieved was proving that the old adage is true: You can't polish a turd (but you can roll it in glitter). 

so true. even if McCaskeys arent making the decisions any more, they chose people who also have that grey corporate thing.

I want a motivator who gets the best out of his players. And who knows how to scheme.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

so true. even if McCaskeys arent making the decisions any more, they chose people who also have that grey corporate thing.

I want a motivator who gets the best out of his players. And who knows how to scheme.

It works that way in any business . The key is are they interfering in any of the team decisions that Poles makes? Im not even sure Warren is interfering in the day to day decisions and he is in the position of power. If the team fails it is because of Poles actions. Do you think Harbaugh answers to anybody? Of course he does. If you hire  smart people you let them win or lose on their own merit. If this all fails it says George hired the wrong person, not because he told Poles to keep Flus as the coach, or trade for Allen, or pay JJ.