Tankathon Rankings 2025 Draft

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

SOURCES: Bears interested in promising OC from Kansas City to fill HC vacancy. Has prior HC experience and has played a role in developing perennial MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes.

I thought this was kinda funny. 

LOL that is funny!

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

LOL that is funny!

In hindsight - Nagy was probably a pretty good head coach. He made playoffs twice in his 4 year run with Trubisky who was clearly not that good. 
 

If you have him Caleb I think he would have crushed it. 

[BearFan PHX]

47 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

In hindsight - Nagy was probably a pretty good head coach. He made playoffs twice in his 4 year run with Trubisky who was clearly not that good. 
 

If you have him Caleb I think he would have crushed it. 

dont forget, the defense bailed him out a lot, and we were always trying to out trick the opponent.

Waldron did that too. EVeryone in the NFL is smart, and theyve seen pretty much everything before. The trick is talent, execution and discipline. You want a coach who scouts good matchups and takes advantage of them - someone who sees what the other guy is doing and knows when to counter off of it - a master rock, paper scissors player.

Nagy, like Waldron, never had any rhythm to counter off of. We didnt have an offensive identity - something we could do even if you tried to stop us - something to make the defense over commit so we could catch them with a counter.

Ive always believed good offensive play calling doesnt mean being unpredictable - it means beaing mostly predictable with things that succeed anyway even if the defense knows its coming, and then a counter off of that at the right moment.

For example, establish the run, pound the ball behind a great guard or tackle, until the defense has to bring an 8th guy into the box and then punish them over the top. That's one example of how to do it, although in the modern age a short passing game can do that too.

But the festival of bubble screens was really frustrating as you remember, and once the league got a book on us, it wasnt working at all.

[Bears4Ever_34]

22 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

In hindsight - Nagy was probably a pretty good head coach. He made playoffs twice in his 4 year run with Trubisky who was clearly not that good. 
 

If you have him Caleb I think he would have crushed it. 

Relative to what came before and after, yeah, Nagy looks a lot better by comparison. I still wouldn't consider him to be good. He had a great 1st season, but defenses adjusted to his offense, and he couldn't adjust after that, for 3 more years.

He really just rode the coat tails of an elite defense throughout his tenure up until the very end when everyone got old and stopped caring.

Nagy's career probably would have ended up very similar to Zach Taylor in CIN with Caleb, and I don't think Taylor is a very good HC. In 2018, they probably make the Superbowl with Caleb, and then, who knows what happens after that. The luck of the draw..

 

[adam]

1. JAX 2-10 
2. LVR 2-10
3. NYG 2-10
------------
4. NE 3-10 BYE > 3-10
5. CAR 3-9 PHI > 3-10
6. NYJ 3-9 MIA > 3-10
7. TEN 3-9 JAX > 4-9
8 CLE 3-9 PIT > 3-10
-----------
9. CIN 4-8 DAL > 5-8
10. NO 4-8 NYG > 5-8
11. CHI 4-8 SF > ?

The Bears currently have the 11th pick, 40th pick (CAR), and the 43rd pick.

There is a good chance both of the other 4-8 teams get a win this weekend, and TEN as well to move to 4-9. If the Bears win, they could drop to 13th. If they lose, there is a good chance they could slide to #9. 

Based on the remaining schedule, it is very unlikely that more than 2x of the 3-win teams win 2 games, so the Bears losing out would probably only get them to #7. Finishing 5-12, probably #9 or 10. 6-11? Probably #12.

[adam]

Teams ahead of the Bears in the draft order have some favorable matchups in the event that the Bears lose. Both other 4-8 teams have easier opponents with CIN at DAL, and NO at NYG. TEN also plays JAX. So there is a good chance that we 3 teams with another win below the Bears. That would make a Bears loss equal pick #9 and a Bears win equal pick #12 or #13.

[adam]

This will probably be the most active thread from here on out. 

The Bears currently have the 9th pick at 4-9, but CIN has not played yet this week at 4-8. If CIN wins, the Bears stay at 9, if CIN loses the Bears drop to 10th. 

This next week, JAX 3-10 vs NYJ 3-10, guarantees another 4-win team. 3-win CAR also plays 5-win DAL, and 3-10 TEN plays 4-win CIN. 

In order for the Bears to get a better pick, we need several of the current 3-win teams to win at least 2 more games. Realistically though, even with the Bears losing out, I don't think they get a pick better than #6, which still requires 3x 3-win teams to win 2 out of the next 4. 

This is a terrible year to be bad. The Bears could finish with 4 wins, with 11 straight losses and not get a top 5 pick. 

[adam]

The Bears have the #9 pick, #35 (CAR), and the #41 pick. Assuming they lose out, which looks very probable, they will have 3 picks in the top 40 and 4 in the top 70. 

[AZ54]

I've done very little scouting so far but at 9 we might be in range to get Mason Graham.  If not, then at this point I'm all in for trading back and loading up on lots of bodies for the trenches.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I've done very little scouting so far but at 9 we might be in range to get Mason Graham.  If not, then at this point I'm all in for trading back and loading up on lots of bodies for the trenches.  

assuming someone wants to come up to 9 (or wherever we land) and there is no obvious stud LT sitting there at 9, this makes a lot of sense.

we need bodies on both lines.

[adam]

The Bears won't end up at #9 with 4 more losses. Probably #6 or #7 at this point.

[adam]

With the CIN win, the Bears are the lone 4-win team, locked in at #9. If the odds play out, the Bears will lose their last 4 games. So at worst, they will have the #9 pick. In order to move up, they would some of the 3-win teams to win 2 out of their last 4.

These are the remaining games that have 5-win teams or worse facing off. JAX has the easiest path to 2 wins. TEN also has a shot. CAR has been playing well but losing, and NYJ almost won this week. Then we have Week 18 where WC teams may rest their starters. 

Week 15 - NYJ@JAX, DAL@CAR, CIN@TEN

Week 16 - JAX@LVR, CLE@CIN

Week 17 - TEN@JAX, LVR@NO

Week 18 - None

My prediction is if the Bears lose out and finish 4-13, they will Pick 6th or 7th. 

[adam]

Jets win, now have 4 wins. Panthers lose, keeping the Bears 2nd round pick in the top 5. Bengals beat Titans, so the Cowboys and Bengals move to 6 wins. 

So the Jets and Bears are the only 4 win teams, drafting 8 and 9. The Saints are now the only 5 win team, so even with 1 more win, the Bears would draft no worse than 10th. 

[adam]

So last season, LAC won 5 games and picked 5th. This year, the Bears could win 4 games and pick 9th. 

Here are the teams that could potentially pass the Bears:

NYJ 4-10, play LAR, @BUF, and MIA (chance to beat MIA)
TEN 3-11, play @IND, @JAX, and HOU (chance to beat IND and JAX)
JAX 3-11, play @LVR, TEN, @IND (chance to win all 3)
CLE 3-11, play @CIN, MIA, and @BAL (chance to beat MIA)
CAR 3-11, play ARZ, @TB, and @ATL 
NE 3-11, play @BUF, LAC, BUF

So realistically, only 2 teams have a chance to get to 5 wins, the Jets and either TEN or JAX. So as a 4-win team, the Bears best draft pick looks to be #7 if NYJ wins one more and either JAX or TEN win 2 more. The Commanders picked 2nd last year with 4 wins. Ugh. 

If the Bears happen to win 1 game and finish 5-12, they could finish 9th or 10th, depending on NO who plays @GB, LVR, and @TB. I am assuming they would beat LVR to go to 6 wins, giving CHI the 9th pick at 5-12. 

If in an alternate universe the Bears somehow split the last 4 games and finish 6-11, which seems like the extreme highest possible record, it looks like they would drop to 12th because there are currently 6 6-win teams and 4 of them should win at least one game. The hope is all of them do, which would make the Bears only swap with NO at 6 wins to pick 10th.

So in summary:

4-13 - Most likely 8th, but between 7th and 9th.
5-12 - Most likely 9th, but between 9th and 10th.
6-11 - Most likely 12th, but between 10th and 14th. 

[Stinger226]

I think we will stay in the top 10 of picks. At that range- one of these should be the pick, Abdul Cater-Mason Graham-Kelvin Banks-Will Campbell. One of those will drop to us and we have to take him. It would be nice to have a choose of at least 2 of them but we will have to see how the draft plays out.

[adam]

On 12/16/2024 at 6:39 AM, Stinger226 said:

I think we will stay in the top 10 of picks. At that range- one of these should be the pick, Abdul Cater-Mason Graham-Kelvin Banks-Will Campbell. One of those will drop to us and we have to take him. It would be nice to have a choose of at least 2 of them but we will have to see how the draft plays out.

The CAR pick will be interesting because the teams with the same record rotate per round. So the Bears have a chance to both get a better pick and a worse pick depending on the order. The hope is that CAR won't be the lowest team of any record with SoS. That would prevent them from being the team with the lowest 2nd round pick. 

[adam]

CAR winning sucks, they will probably end up with a worse pick than the Bears the way this is going. 

7. CAR 4-11
8. NYJ 4-11
9. CHI 4-11
10. NO 5-9

In this scenario, the picks would rotate so the Bears would get the 2nd and 3rd picks of the 4-11 teams in the 2nd round.

So #9, #40, and #41 (CAR)

[Mongo3451]

Doesn't look we are going to move off 9.

[adam]

17 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Doesn't look we are going to move off 9.

Yeah, it is pretty crazy for a 4 win team to only get the 9th pick. I am going to have to look, but that is one of the worst picks ever for a 4 win team.

The only hope is for NYJ or CAR to win one more. NYJ plays MIA in Week 18. CAR plays @TB in Week 17 and @ATL in Week 18. They just beat ARZ, so a win against either of them is at least possible. 

I don't see the Bears winning another game. 

[Mongo3451]

56 minutes ago, adam said:

I don't see the Bears winning another game.

Nope.  The OL is decimated and the defense has quit.  I would suspend Edmunds for the final two games.  He's quit completely.

[Stinger226]

3 top 40 picks is pretty good assets if we pick right.

[adam]

Braxton Jones broke his leg, going to be out 8-10 months. They will need a new LT now too. So 3-4 OLinemen depending on Jenkins and DT, Edge, CB, and probably S. It won't all be addressed in the draft, but they really need to find 4-5 starters in the draft.

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, adam said:

Braxton Jones broke his leg, going to be out 8-10 months. They will need a new LT now too. So 3-4 OLinemen depending on Jenkins and DT, Edge, CB, and probably S. It won't all be addressed in the draft, but they really need to find 4-5 starters in the draft.

In a way this is a good thing that it happened, then iit will force whoever is GM to address that position with our top 40 picks. If we sign Trey Smith and bring back Jenkins on a cheap contract, LT is a priority. I think Bill Murray showed enough to bring back to compete with Jenkins at LG. Shelton can get us by until a rookie OC is developed. Unless we sign a vet like Ryan Kelly or Dave Dalmen, that is probably what we end up with. There is no OC rated high enough to be a started day 1 unless we do something out of the box. 

Rookie/Kiran/Jones at LT

Jenkins/Murray/Kiran- rookie at LG

Shelton/Bates/rookie at OC

Trey Smith/rookie/ Pyror at RG

Wright/rookie/Pryor at RT. 

Only LT needs to be addresses in our first 3 picks. After Banks Jr and Will Campbell the OTs drop off until 2nd round grades anyway. If needed we could find a starting rookie OG with our #73 pick, many are rated high at that part of the draft. 2 DL and 2 OL can fill our important needs right away and with a couple of FAs we are back in business. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 12/22/2024 at 7:51 PM, adam said:

Braxton Jones broke his leg, going to be out 8-10 months. They will need a new LT now too. So 3-4 OLinemen depending on Jenkins and DT, Edge, CB, and probably S. It won't all be addressed in the draft, but they really need to find 4-5 starters in the draft.

At least this has been upgraded to a broken ankle and a 4 month time frame.  Regardless if he is healthy for next season or not, if there is a first round LT at their slot, they cannot pass him up.  LT is a premium position,  like QB, that until you have a top 10 talent, you keep fishing.    

[Mongo3451]

16 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

At least this has been upgraded to a broken ankle and a 4 month time frame.  Regardless if he is healthy for next season or not, if there is a first round LT at their slot, they cannot pass him up.  LT is a premium position,  like QB, that until you have a top 10 talent, you keep fishing.    

💯!  LT is priority one.  Everything on the OL evolves from there.