Tankathon Rankings 2025 Draft

[adam]

Of the two other 4-win teams, CAR is at TB and NYJ is at BUF. I don't see either of the lesser teams winning. So our only hope is some 3-win teams move up.

TEN is @JAX, so one of those teams will move to 4 wins.

LVR is @NO, who looked terrible against GB. So LVR could move to 4 wins. 

 

That sets up for some interesting games in Week 18:

MIA @ NYJ - (MIA is terrible in the cold), NYJ could move to 5 wins
JAX @ IND - if JAX beats TEN in Week 17, this could get them to 5 wins
CAR @ ATL - this is the last realistic game where a team could move to 5 wins

Other games:

LAC @ LVR - Is LAC resting starters for WC Weekend?
TEN @ HOU - Is HOU resting starters for WC Weekend?

So the absolute best the Bears could do is 6th, if JAX beats TEN and IND, NYJ beats MIA, and CAR beats ATL. The issue is based on odds, only NYJ is favored to win. That would give the Bears 8th if they don't win again. If they win one more, it looks like 10th is locked in unless NO wins again (they play LVR and TB), so a win is likely against LVR. So figure 8, 9 or 10. 

For CAR, at this point we would rather have the better first-round pick than 2nd. One slot is huge in the first round. So we actually want CAR to win one more. That scenario would give the Bears #8, 40, and 42. or 9, 41 and 42. 9 to 8 is worth a late 3rd round pick.

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, adam said:

Of the two other 4-win teams, CAR is at TB and NYJ is at BUF. I don't see either of the lesser teams winning. So our only hope is some 3-win teams move up.

TEN is @JAX, so one of those teams will move to 4 wins.

LVR is @NO, who looked terrible against GB. So LVR could move to 4 wins. 

 

That sets up for some interesting games in Week 18:

MIA @ NYJ - (MIA is terrible in the cold), NYJ could move to 5 wins
JAX @ IND - if JAX beats TEN in Week 17, this could get them to 5 wins
CAR @ ATL - this is the last realistic game where a team could move to 5 wins

Other games:

LAC @ LVR - Is LAC resting starters for WC Weekend?
TEN @ HOU - Is HOU resting starters for WC Weekend?

So the absolute best the Bears could do is 6th, if JAX beats TEN and IND, NYJ beats MIA, and CAR beats ATL. The issue is based on odds, only NYJ is favored to win. That would give the Bears 8th if they don't win again. If they win one more, it looks like 10th is locked in unless NO wins again (they play LVR and TB), so a win is likely against LVR. So figure 8, 9 or 10. 

For CAR, at this point we would rather have the better first-round pick than 2nd. One slot is huge in the first round. So we actually want CAR to win one more. That scenario would give the Bears #8, 40, and 42. or 9, 41 and 42. 9 to 8 is worth a late 3rd round pick.

lets go Carolina!

and as always, love the ongoing analysis - better than you get anywhere else on the web.

[adam]

Only the Giants could mess this up. They had sole possession of the #1 pick and decided to show up today and are winning 28-20. They may still lose, but man if they win, they would drop the 3rd pick, with the chance to slide all the way to the 5th pick because of a late season win with a backup QB. 

For the Bears, things are looking good, CAR is losing, and LVR and NYG are winning. Those wins would give the Bears a chance to get a better pick after Week 18's loss. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Only the Giants could mess this up. They had sole possession of the #1 pick and decided to show up today and are winning 28-20. They may still lose, but man if they win, they would drop the 3rd pick, with the chance to slide all the way to the 5th pick because of a late season win with a backup QB. 

For the Bears, things are looking good, CAR is losing, and LVR and NYG are winning. Those wins would give the Bears a chance to get a better pick after Week 18's loss. 

Cool

[adam]

LVR and JAX both won. So there are 4 games with draft implications that could help the Bears draft position:

• MIA @ NYJ - (MIA is terrible in the cold), MIA favored by 1.
• JAX @ IND - IND just lost to the Giants, so JAX can beat them. IND favored by 5.5 (at home).
• LAC @ LVR - Is LAC resting starters for WC Weekend. LAC favored by 5.5.
• CAR @ ATL - CAR has looked good but keeps losing, with ATL basically eliminated who knows. ATL favored by 7.5 (at home).

[adam]

On 12/30/2024 at 7:14 PM, adam said:

LVR and JAX both won. So there are 4 games with draft implications that could help the Bears draft position:

• MIA @ NYJ - (MIA is terrible in the cold), MIA favored by 1.
• JAX @ IND - IND just lost to the Giants, so JAX can beat them. IND favored by 5.5 (at home).
• LAC @ LVR - Is LAC resting starters for WC Weekend. LAC favored by 5.5.
• CAR @ ATL - CAR has looked good but keeps losing, with ATL basically eliminated who knows. ATL favored by 7.5 (at home).

There is actually a realistic chance that all 4 of these teams could win, which would be wild. That would drop the Bears to the 5th pick. Tua is out, MIA is going to be miserable on the road in the cold with nothing to play for. Indy got lit up by Drew Lock and the Giants. LAC should resting starters, and CAR has looked solid over the last month.

I would take any better pick, but 7 or better gives a very high chance at getting Graham, Carter, or Campbell.

[adam]

Bears pick 10th, Panthers will pick 7th, but as the worst 5-12 team, since they rotate picks, the Bears 2nd rounder will be one better than the Panthers.

So #10, #41, and #42 (CAR)

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Bears pick 10th, Panthers will pick 7th, but as the worst 5-12 team, since they rotate picks, the Bears 2nd rounder will be one better than the Panthers.

So #10, #41, and #42 (CAR)

I'll take a win and drop one spot. 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I'll take a win and drop one spot. 

Twice on Sunday, baby!  Yes

[Stinger226]

I have a lot of Packers fans friends and I get a whole off-season to screw with. For a bad season, I have a consolation prize.

[adam]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I have a lot of Packers fans friends and I get a whole off-season to screw with. For a bad season, I have a consolation prize.

Yeah, finally. We not only beat them but hurt them in the playoffs. Going from playing TB vs PHI is a huge difference.