Tankathon Rankings 2025 Draft

[BearFan PHX]

we dont need a #1 pick overall this year, we have a QB. I mean dont get me wrong, the "haul" would be fantastic again, but Id rather see us win some games and see Caleb developing than to have a higher pick.

Another thing to consider is that if we got a top 4 pick, we'd almost have to use it on a pass rusher, whereas a #8 pick or something would go to OL. There are trade down scenarios too, but QBs and Edge rushers are worth their weight in gold.

[Stinger226]

Sunday will go along way from burning the year down or giving us some hope. I still think the main focus should be developing CW. If they slow it down and focus on running the ball, Caleb will look better and show greatness one in awhile. I doubt it will happen but I'm not good at prediciting the future. The 1st 4 picks need to be OL-DL-OL-DL

Sigh Trey Smith/OG and move Kiran A. to LG. Bates starts at C and draft one.

[adam]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

we dont need a #1 pick overall this year, we have a QB. I mean dont get me wrong, the "haul" would be fantastic again, but Id rather see us win some games and see Caleb developing than to have a higher pick.

Another thing to consider is that if we got a top 4 pick, we'd almost have to use it on a pass rusher, whereas a #8 pick or something would go to OL. There are trade down scenarios too, but QBs and Edge rushers are worth their weight in gold.

The Bears have better odds for the #1 pick than they do making the playoffs. They may not win another game. 

[BearFan PHX]

22 minutes ago, adam said:

The Bears have better odds for the #1 pick than they do making the playoffs. They may not win another game. 

I cant deny that youre right about that, but of course the most likely outcome is that they will win a couple games and not make the playoffs?

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I cant deny that youre right about that, but of course the most likely outcome is that they will win a couple games and not make the playoffs?

The only miracle this year was a Hail Mary(not ours). 4-4 would be considered a miracle at this point. CW is the secret sauce, if he starts playing well, we may be surprised at the number of wins. Always the positive thinker.

[adam]

On 11/14/2024 at 3:12 PM, BearFan PHX said:

I cant deny that youre right about that, but of course the most likely outcome is that they will win a couple games and not make the playoffs?

Max of 2, 1 random win, then possibly Week 18 when GB rests all their starters. 

[adam]

On 11/14/2024 at 8:59 PM, Stinger226 said:

The only miracle this year was a Hail Mary(not ours). 4-4 would be considered a miracle at this point. CW is the secret sauce, if he starts playing well, we may be surprised at the number of wins. Always the positive thinker.

If Brown magically turns around this offense and they win 4 more, that would look even worse on Flus and Waldron for the 4-5 start.

[adam]

The more I look at the schedule, 3 wins is the absolute max with a 7-10 record. However, something like 6-11 seems the most likely. That would give the Bears the 11th pick (+/- 2) which would also be Pick #43 in the 2nd. 

CAR's remaining games are KC, TB, @PHI, DAL, ARZ, @TB, and @ATL. DAL and potentially one of the TB games seem like the only winnable games for CAR. So at best they are a 5-12 team. That would be Pick #7 in the first, so Pick #39 would go to the Bears.

That would give the Bears #11, #39, and #43 in the first 2 rounds, and PIck #75 in the 3rd (4 picks in the top 75). The Bears almost have to go OL, OL, DT, Edge at this point (in any order). Preferably BPA but OL and DT have to be addressed. Without a 4th rounder, those are probably the only starters they are going to get from this draft. 

With a bunch of teams needing a QB, a trade back from #11 would be amazing, then they can still get a top Edge or DT while potentially adding an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder (use on a Safety). 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I just want to see growth from Caleb and the younger players at this point. 

[adam]

10 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I just want to see growth from Caleb and the younger players at this point. 

Oh for sure. Defense is going to keep most games close and winnable. It will come down to if the offense can score 2-3 TDs per game. I really hope we see more in breaking routes, quick slants, hot routes, and even dump offs to the RBs in the flat. No more WR screen to Moore, no more all verts with no outlet. The game is not rocket science. They are making it way more complicated than it needs to be. 

[adam]

This is the current projections based on the records, plus or minus 2 slots:

4-13 (Pick #5) 

5-12 (Pick #7)

6-11 (Pick #11)

7-10 (Pick #13)

8-9 (Pick #16)

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I just want to see growth from Caleb and the younger players at this point. 

since the beginning, the goals of this season have been to

1) develop Caleb thru his rookie year and into an NFL experienced QB

2) Find out where we actually are and what the weak links are to open a window to compete next year.

We always knew the OL still needed work.

I really hope to see Caleb progress. I want to see him put together drives. I dont care if we win, but I want to move the ball and score points.

As for finding out where we are weak, and what we need for next year, Id say the results have been phenomenal. We have a very clear picture of whats working and whats broken. You cant say its a contradictory mess or a mixed bag. Its clear. And thats a good thing. Coaching, OL, DL, WR (to replace Allen for next year)

We've gotten a GOOD look at a lot of our offensive linemen. We know what Davis is. We know Jenkins will keep getting hurt. It's coming into focus.

We need new coaches. And who is going to pick them? Is Poles the right guy?

[adam]

Crazy that Carolina's 2nd rounder may end up worse than the Bears own pick. 

[adam]

Looking at future games, the Bears are underdogs in every game. So there is a scenario where the Bears can get the #1 pick 3 years in a row, but super unlikely. Due to the crazy SoS, they will lose the tiebreaker to every team. 

The Bears currently draft 14th. Assuming they lose out and go 4-13. What would be the most likely pick range. It will obviously come down to the other teams below the Bears at the moment. 

14. CHI 4-6, plays 0 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 
13. TB 4-6, plays 6 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 8-9.
12. MIA 4-6, plays 4 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 7-10.
11. CIN 4-7, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 6-11.
10. NO 4-7, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 6-11.
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9. DAL 3-7, plays 4 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12.
8. CAR 3-7, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12.
7. NYJ 3-8, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12.
6. NE 3-8, plays 1 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13.
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5. LVR 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13.
4. NYG 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13.
3. CLE 2-8, plays 2 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 3-14.
2. TEN 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13.
1. JAX 2-9, plays 4 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13.

So if the Bears lose out, they would more than likely pick #7, with a possibility to move to #5. Due to bad teams playing each other, it is virtually impossible for more than 7 teams to finish at 4-13 or worse.

1. CLE 3-14
2. NE 4-13
3. JAX 4-13
4. TEN 4-13
5. NYG 4-13
6. LVR 4-13
7. CHI 4-13
-------------
8. CAR 5-12
9. NYJ 5-12
10. DAL 5-12

If the Bears win 1 game, and finish 5-12, they would draft 10th. They could draft as high as 9th or as low as 12th.

1. CLE 3-14
2. NE 4-13
3. JAX 4-13
4. TEN 4-13
5. NYG 4-13
6. LVR 4-13
-------------
7. CAR 5-12
8. NYJ 5-12
9. DAL 5-12
10. CHI 5-12

If the Bears win 2 games, and finish 6-11, they would draft 12th with a chance to draft 11th or 13th. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Looking at future games, the Bears are underdogs in every game. So it is actually realistic that the Bears can get the #1 pick 3 years in a row. 

I assume that even having a top 5 pick would mean a good shot at an impact Offensive Lineman? I dont know what the crop looks like this year.

Is there a QB that someone would trade the haul for if we had #1?

Deja Vu.

[adam]

5 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I assume that even having a top 5 pick would mean a good shot at an impact Offensive Lineman? I dont know what the crop looks like this year.

Is there a QB that someone would trade the haul for if we had #1?

Deja Vu.

Sanders or Ward will both go in the top 10. Sanders will go 1 or 2. Travis Hunter may go #1 as well. Will Cambell is the beast OL out of LSU who will go in the top 10, so will Kelvin Banks out of Texas. 

I did a better deep dive, in reality, a lot would have to go right for every other team to get to 5 wins to allow the Bears to pick #1. At best they will probably draft between #5-7. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

Sanders or Ward will both go in the top 10. Sanders will go 1 or 2. 

I did a better deep dive, in reality, a lot would have to go right for every other team to get to 5 wins to allow the Bears to pick #1. At best they will probably draft between #5-7. 

In a way thats good. If we had, say a #3 pick, it would be hard to pass up a top pass rusher there. #5 to #7 is a good place to pick up a stud OL if there is one?

Then again, we could go edge rusher with pick #1, and then spend both of our 2nds on OL too. Probably get a safety in round 3. Im speaking in terms of usual allotment of talent, I havent looked at the actual list yet. I cant do that this early! lol

All of this assuming those positions arent already addressed in free agency too.

[adam]

For this week, we have TB vs NYG, and NE vs MIA that will have draft consequences. Ideally, we would want NE and NYG to win this week, though unlikely. If TB and MIA win like expected, the Bears would drop to #12. 

[adam]

3 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

In a way thats good. If we had, say a #3 pick, it would be hard to pass up a top pass rusher there. #5 to #7 is a good place to pick up a stud OL if there is one?

Then again, we could go edge rusher with pick #1, and then spend both of our 2nds on OL too. Probably get a safety in round 3. Im speaking in terms of usual allotment of talent, I havent looked at the actual list yet. I cant do that this early! lol

All of this assuming those positions arent already addressed in free agency too.

The top 3 have to be in the trenches, any OLman, DT, or Edge. 

[BearFan PHX]

27 minutes ago, adam said:

The top 3 have to be in the trenches, any OLman, DT, or Edge. 

I agree, but if we get an edge with #1 and a DT with our first 2nd, unless we scored big in free agency, we waited too long to take OL.

We really need at least 3 new starters on the OL. And a real edge threat. Free Agency isnt usually great for OL, so we are looking a tad short?

[adam]

1. JAX 2-9
2. NYG 2-9
3. LVR 2-8
------------
4. NE 3-9
5. CAR 3-8
6. TEN 3-8
7. NYJ 3-8
8 CLE 3-8
-----------
9. NO 4-7
10. CIN 4-7
11. DAL 4-7
12. CHI 4-7
13. IND 5-7

With the expected loss against the 10-1 Lions on Thanksgiving, the Bears will have lost 6 straight, 3 division games in back to back to back weeks AND 2 games in 4 days. That would drop them to 4-8 with 5 to play. DAL somehow beat WSH and may win a few more than I thought. CLE won, and NO have won 2 straight. TEN just beat HOU, so the Bears actually have a chance to creep into the top 5. I assumed #7 but that was with both TEN and CLE losing this week. 

Even with one win and finishing at 5-12, the Bears will probably get a top 10 pick. So that will be 3 picks in the top 40. 

[adam]

As of today:

The Bears first 4 draft picks in 2025: 12, 40 (CAR), 43, and 74. I would not be opposed to 4 trench players, 2 offense, 2 defense preferably. I am sure they will mix another position in there like Safety, CB, WR, or TE. 

IOL, DT, Edge, OT, S, CB, WR, TE feel like the top needs.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I need Fields to get back in for his 3 games of snaps. 

[adam]

17 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I need Fields to get back in for his 3 games of snaps. 

Right now it is Fields 405 vs Wilson 349 vs Allen 2. So right now Fields has 53.6% of the snaps at QB.

With 6 games remaining, the Steelers average 68.8 snaps per game, so they should end the season with approximately 1168 snaps, and 50% of those is 584 snaps. Fields needs 179 more snaps, so just under 11 quarters of play (just over 2.5 games).

Depending on their record, they may rest starters in Week 18, so Fields should get the start there. That would leave 1.5 games worth of snaps in the next 5. The only way this happens is if RW gets hurt or is just absolutely terrible and they go on a 4-game losing streak (3 more games) and then try Fields to salvage their playoff hopes in the last 3.

[adam]

The Bears are now #9 overall after falling to 4-8. With the highest SoS, they can't get higher, but NO, CIN, and DAL can pass them back up if they lose. The Bears can stay at #9 if they all win, or drop to #12 if all 3 lose. 

There are 4x 3-8 teams that can tie the Bears this week, but it won't impact draft position, CAR, TEN, NYJ, and CLE. However, it does setup for them to pass the Bears after the Bears next loss.