adam Posted October 6 Report Share Posted October 6 Early Line has Bears favored by 1 or a PK, depending on the sportsbook. JAX is 1-4, defense allowed 34, 24, and 47 their last 3 games. They barely beat a Flacco led Colts without Taylor. The Jags offense got going with 37 pts. This is going to be a close game, but I am going with 24-20 Bears going into the bye at 4-2. The Bears defense is the best unit amongst both teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 7 Report Share Posted October 7 Being overseas is the critical part of how it affects the teams. We should win but it most likely will be a close game with a who scores last will win. The one constant will be the Jags not scoring over 20 points, our defense always shows up. Their defense has 11 sacks on the year and are decent against the run. In cotrast we have 14 sacks and have been worse againt the run. TOs will once again be an important stat in the game. They have turned the ball over 9 times and we have 11 TOs. Also Lawerence has played better than CW has so far with 1100 yds and 6-2 TD to int ratio. It will be a close game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 7 Author Report Share Posted October 7 46 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: Being overseas is the critical part of how it affects the teams. We should win but it most likely will be a close game with a who scores last will win. The one constant will be the Jags not scoring over 20 points, our defense always shows up. Their defense has 11 sacks on the year and are decent against the run. In cotrast we have 14 sacks and have been worse againt the run. TOs will once again be an important stat in the game. They have turned the ball over 9 times and we have 11 TOs. Also Lawerence has played better than CW has so far with 1100 yds and 6-2 TD to int ratio. It will be a close game. Yeah it will more than likely be an ugly game. Penalties and turnovers will probably decide it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 7 Author Report Share Posted October 7 Pulling the starters, even for a few plays helps. The defensive starters did not play in the last drive, 9 plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted October 7 Report Share Posted October 7 4 hours ago, Stinger226 said: Being overseas is the critical part of how it affects the teams. We should win but it most likely will be a close game with a who scores last will win. The one constant will be the Jags not scoring over 20 points, our defense always shows up. Their defense has 11 sacks on the year and are decent against the run. In cotrast we have 14 sacks and have been worse againt the run. TOs will once again be an important stat in the game. They have turned the ball over 9 times and we have 11 TOs. Also Lawerence has played better than CW has so far with 1100 yds and 6-2 TD to int ratio. It will be a close game. Jags can put up points though. They are going to fling it. This is a game where Jags are going to be throwing it - so Bears D has to be hitting Lawrence and creating turnovers. On flip side Bears need to mitigate the penalties and Caleb hopefully can mitigate turnovers on his side and make enough chunk plays. Bears need to continue to push the ground game, but liked how they mixed things up a lot this week. It was progress - but we had penalties cost them a first down and a touch down in the game. Might have been more - but those were 2 that stood out. Also a key drop by Moore costing them a 1st down too. So there was 1 drive we had to settle for 3 (vs. 7) and 2 drives that stalled out in good field position for punts because of offense's inability to execute. Got to build on that - cause against better teams, you can't overcome those mistakes. But the progress was huge. I think this is going to be a real tough game - Jags are clinging to hopes if they win this one they can turn some momentum on in a relatively weak division. Let's go Bears!!! Let's see more of this continued positive momentum from our Bears!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 7 Report Share Posted October 7 22 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said: Jags can put up points though. They are going to fling it. This is a game where Jags are going to be throwing it - so Bears D has to be hitting Lawrence and creating turnovers. On flip side Bears need to mitigate the penalties and Caleb hopefully can mitigate turnovers on his side and make enough chunk plays. Bears need to continue to push the ground game, but liked how they mixed things up a lot this week. It was progress - but we had penalties cost them a first down and a touch down in the game. Might have been more - but those were 2 that stood out. Also a key drop by Moore costing them a 1st down too. So there was 1 drive we had to settle for 3 (vs. 7) and 2 drives that stalled out in good field position for punts because of offense's inability to execute. Got to build on that - cause against better teams, you can't overcome those mistakes. But the progress was huge. I think this is going to be a real tough game - Jags are clinging to hopes if they win this one they can turn some momentum on in a relatively weak division. Let's go Bears!!! Let's see more of this continued positive momentum from our Bears!!! Jags can score but I trust the defense to keep them in check. It will come down to who scores last at the end game. We have already played 2 better QBs than Lawerence , Stroud and Stafford so that doesnt scare me. The overseas effect is the unknown. Defenses travel not the same with offense. All we have is the first 5 games and they are 1-4 and cant stop anybody. Their last 2 oppontants were Colts and Texans and they gave up 24 and 34, that tells me our offense should score some points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 9 Author Report Share Posted October 9 On 10/7/2024 at 10:45 AM, DABEARSDABOMB said: Jags can put up points though. They are going to fling it. This is a game where Jags are going to be throwing it - so Bears D has to be hitting Lawrence and creating turnovers. On flip side Bears need to mitigate the penalties and Caleb hopefully can mitigate turnovers on his side and make enough chunk plays. Bears need to continue to push the ground game, but liked how they mixed things up a lot this week. It was progress - but we had penalties cost them a first down and a touch down in the game. Might have been more - but those were 2 that stood out. Also a key drop by Moore costing them a 1st down too. So there was 1 drive we had to settle for 3 (vs. 7) and 2 drives that stalled out in good field position for punts because of offense's inability to execute. Got to build on that - cause against better teams, you can't overcome those mistakes. But the progress was huge. I think this is going to be a real tough game - Jags are clinging to hopes if they win this one they can turn some momentum on in a relatively weak division. Let's go Bears!!! Let's see more of this continued positive momentum from our Bears!!! JAX has 2x 200-yd rushers in Etienne and Bigsby, yet are 30th in TOP and in 3rd Down%. So odd. Their offense should be solid with Thomas, Kirk, and Davis as their top 3 WR, but it looks like they really miss Evan Engram who hasn't played since getting hurt in Week 1. Hopefully, he doesn't come back for this one with Brisker out. I like our defenses chance against JAX, and the offense has a favorable matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. From a matchup perspective, the Bears have the edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted October 9 Report Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, adam said: JAX has 2x 200-yd rushers in Etienne and Bigsby, yet are 30th in TOP and in 3rd Down%. So odd. Their offense should be solid with Thomas, Kirk, and Davis as their top 3 WR, but it looks like they really miss Evan Engram who hasn't played since getting hurt in Week 1. Hopefully, he doesn't come back for this one with Brisker out. I like our defenses chance against JAX, and the offense has a favorable matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. From a matchup perspective, the Bears have the edge. Their QB isn’t as good as our QB. I wouldn’t have expected to be saying that but too often Lawrence looks lost on his reads. He’s not a Trubisky deer in the headlights QB so he can still hurt you at times. Hopefully we can get him rattled a bit with the pressure and our coverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted October 9 Report Share Posted October 9 I think with the defense playing so well, and Caleb improving each week, that unless we are playing a top 5 team, it's going to come down to the OL, the running game, and Waldron's game plan and play calling every week. We can beat almost anyone if we play well, and we can look terrible if we dont do the right things. That's where we are at with this roster I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted October 9 Report Share Posted October 9 Several things concern me. Jax has two players, both over 200 yards rushing, 273/231 (Bigsby & Etienne), while we have been a bit sloppy stopping the run. I've never been a big Lawrence fan. However, on any given day, he can burn you. Will returning to London be a catalyst? Jax will be playing a home-away-from-home game in London. They have the most experience of all teams playing overseas. Finally, how will Caleb respond to the extreme spotlight playing in his 1st international game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears4Ever_34 Posted October 10 Report Share Posted October 10 Brisker being out could be a bigger deal than we realize. Stopping the run has been a problem with this team all year, even when Brisker has been playing. The drop off between him and Hicks worries me against a team that can run the ball. I expect JAC to test Hicks early with deep shots off play action. On the flipside, their defense is horrible. Caleb should be in line for another huge game through the air, but the neutral site and perhaps shoddy field conditions could throw a wrench in how we'd like to think this game should play out. The Bears are the better team, but JAC is desperate, and they have the experience playing in this game. Not to mention, I think they're also getting a few guys back on offense. This one is probably going to come down to whether the Bears can limit the explosives on defense and not giving away the ball on offense while staying discipline with pre-snap penalties. Out of the remaining opponents on the schedule, JAC is probably the 2nd worst team besides the Patriots they'll play the rest of the season. This is one they have to have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted October 10 Report Share Posted October 10 57 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said: Brisker being out could be a bigger deal than we realize. Stopping the run has been a problem with this team all year, even when Brisker has been playing. The drop off between him and Hicks worries me against a team that can run the ball. I expect JAC to test Hicks early with deep shots off play action. On the flipside, their defense is horrible. Caleb should be in line for another huge game through the air, but the neutral site and perhaps shoddy field conditions could throw a wrench in how we'd like to think this game should play out. The Bears are the better team, but JAC is desperate, and they have the experience playing in this game. Not to mention, I think they're also getting a few guys back on offense. This one is probably going to come down to whether the Bears can limit the explosives on defense and not giving away the ball on offense while staying discipline with pre-snap penalties. Out of the remaining opponents on the schedule, JAC is probably the 2nd worst team besides the Patriots they'll play the rest of the season. This is one they have to have. I agree with all of that - they are one of the worst teams we will play, and yet, the way it matches up, it could be a close game. It comes down to not making mistakes, limiting big plays on defense, and being efficient and scoring points on offense. Not turning over the ball, making first downs, keeping time of possession will all be key, but thats just football anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 10 Author Report Share Posted October 10 Jacksonville knew a hurricane was coming to Florida, and decided to wait it out before leaving for Europe? Now they are delayed leaving Jacksonville and won't get in until later on Friday. Supposedly this is something they do regularly, though they will arrive later. https://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jaguars-london-hurricane-t17980 I can't imagine arriving to Europe after a 9-hour flight, then playing an NFL football game less than 48 hours later. It normally takes me 3 days to fully get adjusted to the time change when it is that large. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 10 Report Share Posted October 10 I think the fact they will be distracted from the the possiblities of their homes could be destroyed could affect their play. My annual Thailand flight (20 hours) in the air takes me 5 days to adjust. I think it is more mental than physical when you look at prime shape for the players. They will be playing at 930 in the morning on their body clock. Their is no data on wins or losses on leaving early or going late but logic tells you it will affect them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted October 10 Report Share Posted October 10 4 hours ago, adam said: Jacksonville knew a hurricane was coming to Florida, and decided to wait it out before leaving for Europe? Now they are delayed leaving Jacksonville and won't get in until later on Friday. Supposedly this is something they do regularly, though they will arrive later. https://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jaguars-london-hurricane-t17980 I can't imagine arriving to Europe after a 9-hour flight, then playing an NFL football game less than 48 hours later. It normally takes me 3 days to fully get adjusted to the time change when it is that large. Same for me. The first three days in Europe my body never feels right. I think the Bears got it right leaving early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 10 Author Report Share Posted October 10 6 hours ago, Stinger226 said: I think the fact they will be distracted from the the possiblities of their homes could be destroyed could affect their play. My annual Thailand flight (20 hours) in the air takes me 5 days to adjust. I think it is more mental than physical when you look at prime shape for the players. They will be playing at 930 in the morning on their body clock. Their is no data on wins or losses on leaving early or going late but logic tells you it will affect them. There actually is. The Athletic did an article here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5811903/2024/10/03/nfl-london-games-analysis-arrival/ The team that arrives early is actually 7-2 in the last 9 games (since 2017). The farther you go back, the games actually even out. I think that is why a lot of teams did arrive later because early on, those teams seemed to have the advantage. However, lately, the team that arrives early has a clear edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 10 Author Report Share Posted October 10 I am going with Bears 33-19. The Bears offense is averaging 30 over their last two games and JAX has allowed an average of 35 over their last 3 weeks. Those are some strong trends. The Bears have yet to allow 20 pts this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 10 Author Report Share Posted October 10 Jags fans super confident. Pretty funny thread. I liked this one, one guy called Caleb "Johnson" and says he thinks the Bears will win 23-6, and the next guy's reply is golden: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 10 Author Report Share Posted October 10 London weather on Sunday morning, game time temps in the low to mid 40s. Jacksonville coming from mid 70-low 80s to 40s is a pretty big shock. Couple that with the late arrival and I would feel like crap. So not only do the Jags have to get acclimated to the time change, they also have to get acclimated to the weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 11 Report Share Posted October 11 The intangables are with us but this can easily be a close game. Its usually a handful of plays that change a game. TOs-penalties- poor tackling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted October 11 Report Share Posted October 11 42 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: The intangables are with us but this can easily be a close game. Its usually a handful of plays that change a game. TOs-penalties- poor tackling. agree, and coaching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 11 Author Report Share Posted October 11 Ugh, looks like Tyrique is out, tweaked something in practice today, now doubtful for Sunday. No Brisker and no Stevenson. You can assume the Jags are going to attack whoever lines up across from Jaylon now. Terrell Smith was already out, so now the Bears are super thin at DB. Josh Blackwell is now the only sub CB to cover down on Johnson, now Jaylon Jones, and Gordon. Not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 11 Author Report Share Posted October 11 Game Insights: Bears running backs have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 33.6% of their carries this season, 3rd-lowest in the NFL, but have recorded just 0.8 yards before contact per carry, 21st in the NFL. The Bears are also one of two teams to have recorded just 3 explosive runs (10+ yards) from their running backs this season (Chiefs) and have generated -80 rush yards over expected as result (3rd-lowest in the NFL). The Bears defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest conversion rate (31.7%) and 4th-lowest completion percentage over expected (-11.1%) on third down this season. The Jaguars have the 3rd-lowest conversion rate on third down this season (27.8%). Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has completed -8.7% of his passes below expected on third down, the 5th-lowest mark among quarterbacks; his 42.5% completion percentage (17 of 40) is the 2nd-lowest on third down. The Bears defense is one of three units to have five defenders with double digit pressures this season (Texans, Seahawks), helping them generate a 34.7% pressure rate (13th) and a 19.1% quick pressure rate (7th). Jaguars blockers have allowed the 5th-lowest pressure rate through 5 weeks (27.5%). They have been especially strong on the interior, as all three interior linemen are top 3 in pressure rate allowed at their positions - LG Ezra Cleveland: 3.3% (3rd), C Mitch Morse: 2.2% (2nd), RG Brandon Scherff: 1.7% (1st). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 11 Author Report Share Posted October 11 Jags Safeties are the worst duo in the NFL by a long shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 11 Report Share Posted October 11 1 hour ago, adam said: Game Insights: Bears running backs have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 33.6% of their carries this season, 3rd-lowest in the NFL, but have recorded just 0.8 yards before contact per carry, 21st in the NFL. The Bears are also one of two teams to have recorded just 3 explosive runs (10+ yards) from their running backs this season (Chiefs) and have generated -80 rush yards over expected as result (3rd-lowest in the NFL). The Bears defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest conversion rate (31.7%) and 4th-lowest completion percentage over expected (-11.1%) on third down this season. The Jaguars have the 3rd-lowest conversion rate on third down this season (27.8%). Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has completed -8.7% of his passes below expected on third down, the 5th-lowest mark among quarterbacks; his 42.5% completion percentage (17 of 40) is the 2nd-lowest on third down. The Bears defense is one of three units to have five defenders with double digit pressures this season (Texans, Seahawks), helping them generate a 34.7% pressure rate (13th) and a 19.1% quick pressure rate (7th). Jaguars blockers have allowed the 5th-lowest pressure rate through 5 weeks (27.5%). They have been especially strong on the interior, as all three interior linemen are top 3 in pressure rate allowed at their positions - LG Ezra Cleveland: 3.3% (3rd), C Mitch Morse: 2.2% (2nd), RG Brandon Scherff: 1.7% (1st). To keep things in perspective, Caroline had the top rated OL in football. We got 4 sacks and they are still 1-4. Stats can be decieving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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