Official Week 7 Bye Week Open Thread

[adam]

Bears are 4-2 at the bye. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Seems a bit early but this was the Bears choice to take it after London.  Otherwise they would have had a home game this week.  A bye in between the coming gauntlet might have given them the time to heal and better prepare.

[adam]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Seems a bit early but this was the Bears choice to take it after London.  Otherwise they would have had a home game this week.  A bye in between the coming gauntlet might have given them the time to heal and better prepare.

The teams can choose their bye weeks? I thought this was all done by computers and schedule makers?

[adam]

The Keenan Effect - Bears are 4-0 when he plays and 0-2 when he is out. Could be the opponents, but the offense really popped when he got back in the lineup after missing the 2 games.

[adam]

Team Ratings thru 6 weeks:

DVOA - 17th (OFF-24th, DEF-6th, ST-12th)
Sagarin Ratings - 10th
EPA/Diff - 9th (OFF-21st, DEF-2nd)
PFF Team Grades - 12th (OFF-22nd, DEF-3rd, ST-25th)

Pts Differential - 3rd

Some crazy underlying numbers for the Bears team as a whole.  Between 9th and 17th with the advanced metrics, average of 12th, which feels about right to me. 

If you remove the first two weeks (oldest games), they are basically top 5 in every category. 

[adam]

The @ChicagoBears current streak of 12 games holding an opponent to 21 pts or less dating back to last year is tied for the 9th longest streak since the SB era.

There have only been 3 teams in the last 25 years to have a longer streak:

00-01 PHI - 17 games
19-20 BAL - 13 games
07-08 TEN - 13 games

Bears Team Record: 16 games from 1993-09-12 to 1994-09-04

It is going to be super challenging to keep this streak going, but 12 games is already in some pretty rare air.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, adam said:

The teams can choose their bye weeks? I thought this was all done by computers and schedule makers?

They get a choice after the London trip.  They can even deny the trip.  Last year the NFL had KC vs Bears for Frankfort Germany and one of the teams opted not to travel. 

[adam]

<insert eyeballs> he had the 2nd most snaps for a DT, duo with Payne. Now the Commanders have to use Phidarian Mathis or rookie Newton (who has looked terrible). Both of guys are playing below replacement level players, so this is a huge loss for the WAS defense.

[AZ54]

I’m looking forward to watching Newton.  I didn’t like him in the draft because I felt he was slow off the ball and his short arms wouldn’t help after an OG got his hands on him.  In college he could run around blockers but IOL in the NFL are dancing Bears who can move with you.  Watching him against our Oline will give me a good idea if I was right or wrong.  

[AZ54]

NFL trade deadline is approaching.  Devante Adam’s reunited with Rodgers    Amari Cooper is traded to the Bills.   Poles has stayed the course so far.  Now with Caleb improving rapidly it’s fair to say we are going to compete for a playoff spot.   What move for which position would you make to shore up the playoff run?   For me I’d trade for a legit starting DT to shore up that rotation    

[Pixote]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

NFL trade deadline is approaching.  Devante Adam’s reunited with Rodgers    Amari Cooper is traded to the Bills.   Poles has stayed the course so far.  Now with Caleb improving rapidly it’s fair to say we are going to compete for a playoff spot.   What move for which position would you make to shore up the playoff run?   For me I’d trade for a legit starting DT to shore up that rotation    

Sportsmockery.com has an article about a possible trade scenario for Poles to exploit. It is suggesting we trade for JAX OG Brandon Scherff. Evern, though he is 32, is still a considerable upgrade for us and has a year left on his contract after 2024.

I'm unsure if I am all-in on this idea, but an upgrade for our OL & DL, if cheap, would be ideal. (Cheap being the optimal word. I DO NOT want to give up any of our 3 picks in the 1st & 2nd rounds.)

 

[adam]

According to PFF, these are the lowest guys with the worst grades according to PFF (with 50+ snaps):

Cowart, DL - 47.9 with 60 snaps
Booker, Edge - 53.1 with 89 snaps
Williams, DL - 57.7 with 109 snaps

Everett, TE - 46.0 with 149 snaps
Lewis, TE - 50.4 with 89 snaps
Carter, WR - 53.4 with 124 snaps
Davis, OG - 53.6 with 142 snaps

By snap count:

TE - 238 snaps below 51.0
DL - 169 snaps below 58.0
OG - 142 snaps below 54.0
WR - 124 snaps below 54.0
 

Surprisingly, backup TE is the biggest need based on snap count. Then DT, then OG. Honestly, I could see the Bears picking up a DT, Edge, OG, or WR. I don't think they will fix TE even though the backup options are underperforming. 

 

[adam]

Due to the Hutchinson injury, I am sure Detroit is looking for an Edge. The Bears need to get someone like Maxx Crosby or Trey Hendrickson because it would put the defense over the top, but also to prevent the Lions from adding them. 

Some other options are Chase Young (NO - reunite with Sweat), Josh Allen (JAX-the Bears just saw him firsthand), or Brian Burns (who Poles wanted in the CAR trade initially). 

With the PIT pick coming, they can safely give up a 4th-6th knowing they would get one from PIT. 

[Stinger226]

19 hours ago, Pixote said:

Sportsmockery.com has an article about a possible trade scenario for Poles to exploit. It is suggesting we trade for JAX OG Brandon Scherff. Evern, though he is 32, is still a considerable upgrade for us and has a year left on his contract after 2024.

I'm unsure if I am all-in on this idea, but an upgrade for our OL & DL, if cheap, would be ideal. (Cheap being the optimal word. I DO NOT want to give up any of our 3 picks in the 1st & 2nd rounds.)

 

Journalists are the ones promoting these trades. The only one/s I trust are Brad Biggs or similar local beat writers. Lambert is notorious for making shit up. So far the DL has not been a problem, OL yes but no good choices out there. Scherff makes 11.5 mil this year and `14.5 mil next year. He is 33 and will play at 34.

Pickens did the same transformation with his body that Dexter did but havent seen it yet because of his injuries. Bookie is starting to be more noticable on tape and we have yet to see a breakout game from Sweat. I think we are find with the DL. 

The OL has Bates and Borom coming back plus Kiran is getting more up to speed. I think the more they play together the better play we see. If we only have a middle rated OL on the year it will be fine . Plus we have a QB that has a quick release, can be decisive and has escapabilty. Once he reaches his ceiling , we wont notice the OL.

[adam]

HOU at GB and DET at MIN. If HOU and MIN both win, GB would be 4-3 and DET would be 4-2, sliding the Bears up to 2nd place in the Division lol. 

Both games should be super close. I wonder how DET will to without Hutchinson, he was playing at a DPOY level before breaking his leg. That is hard to replace with a backup Edge. They should be a lesser team for the rest of the season at least on the defensive side of the ball.

HOU's defense allows a league low 53.3% comp % against and only 163 yards passing per game (4th). They are 13th against the run. GB is 2nd in rushing

HOU and MIN should be favored, and should win unless the officials get involved or there is a catastrophic turnover. 

[adam]

Did you know that the Bears are the 3rd highest penalized team thru 6 weeks? 47 penalties, the most in the NFL is Dallas with 49. The Bears have to clean that up. DET has the 2nd least at 26. The league average is 37. 

On the flip side, the Bears have the least missed tackles in the NFL, at 22. The next closest is PIT with 24. LVR has 62 missed tackles, wow.

 

For the Commanders game, one perspective to consider. The Bears have 13 takeaways, tied for 2nd with MIN (GB is 1st with 17). The Commanders only have 4 and a league low 1 INT. That is a huge advantage. 

The Commanders have only kicked 27.3% of their punts inside the 20, the Bears have kicked 38.5% inside the 20, so the Bears should have a net advantage in the field position game when punting. 

[Lucky Luciano]

9 minutes ago, adam said:

Did you know that the Bears are the 3rd highest penalized team thru 6 weeks? 47 penalties, the most in the NFL is Dallas with 49. The Bears have to clean that up.

again some of it is the officiating. they call BS stuff on the bears and let other teams get away with murder.

[Stinger226]

52 minutes ago, adam said:

Did you know that the Bears are the 3rd highest penalized team thru 6 weeks? 47 penalties, the most in the NFL is Dallas with 49. The Bears have to clean that up. DET has the 2nd least at 26. The league average is 37. 

On the flip side, the Bears have the least missed tackles in the NFL, at 22. The next closest is PIT with 24. LVR has 62 missed tackles, wow.

 

For the Commanders game, one perspective to consider. The Bears have 13 takeaways, tied for 2nd with MIN (GB is 1st with 17). The Commanders only have 4 and a league low 1 INT. That is a huge advantage. 

The Commanders have only kicked 27.3% of their punts inside the 20, the Bears have kicked 38.5% inside the 20, so the Bears should have a net advantage in the field position game when punting. 

While in London we only committed 2 penalties. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

While in London we only committed 2 penalties. 

Which means they had a ton of penalties between Week 1 and 5.

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Did you know that the Bears are the 3rd highest penalized team thru 6 weeks? 47 penalties, the most in the NFL is Dallas with 49. The Bears have to clean that up. DET has the 2nd least at 26. The league average is 37. 

On the flip side, the Bears have the least missed tackles in the NFL, at 22. The next closest is PIT with 24. LVR has 62 missed tackles, wow.

 

For the Commanders game, one perspective to consider. The Bears have 13 takeaways, tied for 2nd with MIN (GB is 1st with 17). The Commanders only have 4 and a league low 1 INT. That is a huge advantage. 

The Commanders have only kicked 27.3% of their punts inside the 20, the Bears have kicked 38.5% inside the 20, so the Bears should have a net advantage in the field position game when punting. 

Dude, I love the constant stats - this board is my favorite newspaper for following the Bears!

Your stats are timely, interesting, and often not the usual completion percentage kind of stuff. Love it.

[adam]

35 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Dude, I love the constant stats - this board is my favorite newspaper for following the Bears!

Your stats are timely, interesting, and often not the usual completion percentage kind of stuff. Love it.

Thanks, I like the easter egg hunts. There are so many different stats out there, and some have pretty big impacts on the game, but are not always talked about. I like to find them and see if any correlate to wins, etc. Some do, some don't, but it is interesting to dig. 

[Mongo3451]

Who loves this stat?  The four opponents we have defeated have a combined record of 4-18.  We are growing, but...

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Who loves this stat?  The four opponents we have defeated have a combined record of 4-18.  We are growing, but...

you can only play who they put in front of you - but Caleb has been under pressure, and he's beaten the blitz enough to make teams play him honestly, and things like looking off of safeties and getting through your progressions are big time no matter who you're playing.

But yeah, I am very much looking forward to seeing him against better teams, both to see where hes at and to continue growing.

[adam]

12 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Who loves this stat?  The four opponents we have defeated have a combined record of 4-18.  We are growing, but...

JAX and LAR won the week before the Bears game. LAR beat SF. JAX beat IND. 

I don't think it is a but because in previous seasons the Bears would lose a few of these games. Most of the teams that make the playoffs, especially the WC Teams are normally teams that were 8-2 vs non-playoff teams and 2-5 against playoff teams. That is how you get to only 9 or 10 wins. The teams winning 12+ are the ones with winning records against playoff teams. 
 

[AZ54]

Data for Adam et al...I get this every week but data like this is best digested after 4-6 weeks so I haven't posted it yet.  

https://www.matchquarters.com/p/nfl-weekly-data-download-week-6

We are not a cover 2 team, Cover 3 is our primary staple.  Some excerpts...

"Nickel: Houston, Chicago, and Washington run Nickel more than anyone in the NFL. The Texans and Bears have elite Nickels in Jalen Pitre and Kyler Gordon, respectively.

...In Baltimore, the ability to use Kyle Hamilton as the $-backer has come with the free agent pickup of Eddie Jackson, who started games for Chicago. "

 

Interestingly Caleb has mostly seen Cover 3 among the teams we've played.   There is something called a Havoc rating which I've never heard of and I have no clue on the grading for.  The Bears have two NBs among the top 15 in Gordon and Blackwell, no safeties in the top 20, and TJ Edwards listed among LBs.  Then there's this stuff below that maybe Adam can decode better than me but for better or worse we made the lists several times.