Week 13 Official Turkey Day Game Thread - 1130CT - Flus will be fired on Black Friday

[adam]

This will be the nationally televised disaster that gets Flus fired. That is my hope at least. I honestly thought we could not get a worse coach than Trestman, but the Bears have hit a new low with Eberflus. What an absolute joke and fraud of a coach. His limit is as a Defensive Coordinator. He is not a Head Coach. 

The first year was masked by the rebuild. The 2nd year was Fields. There was no excuse this year. It is the same result with a new way to lose week in and week out. He can't win a challenge, does not know how or when to use timeouts, and the team is always unprepared. Now with the defense failing, there is zero reason to keep him as the HC. If you are going to fire him at the end of the season, fire him now.

Lions 38-23, this game will be over by halftime, probably 31-13 by halftime. The Bears defense is going to get shredded by Goff because Flus refuses to rush more than 4 while playing zone coverage 10 yards off every receiver. I have never seen a softer defense that what the Bears have shown since the NE game. 

The pain should be over by 3pm.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I can’t wish for that. A disaster means offense and Caleb play bad. I actually want them to go win but at very least play it down to the wire. Want to see Caleb stack a 3rd straight good game together! 

[adam]

29 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I can’t wish for that. A disaster means offense and Caleb play bad. I actually want them to go win but at very least play it down to the wire. Want to see Caleb stack a 3rd straight good game together! 

The disaster is going to be on defense. Both Addison and Hockenson had over 100 yards receiving, Darnold had over 300 yards and Jones was over 100 rushing. Can you imagine what Goff, St. Brown, LaPorta, Monty, and Gibbs are going to do? Goff is going to shred Flus' defense so easily, it is not going to be funny.

I think Caleb will keep it competitive, but it feels like if Darnold and Minnesota can score 30 on the Bears, Goff will score no less than 30. 

I am praying for another solid game by Caleb. However, on short rest, Thursday Night on the road doesn't feel like the best scenario for the Bears to be competitive in general. Even the Special Teams has been subpar over the last few weeks. How do you not shore up the blocking on a FG to get kicks blocked in back to back weeks. That was also the deciding score in the game. 

[adam]

Lions open as -10.5 favorites, with the O/U at 48.5.  That projects to a 29.5 - 19 game. 

It feels like Lions and the over is an easy parlay. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

I lean towards a Lions blowout, but I honestly wouldn't be all that surprised if the Bears won this game, either. They almost always play the Lions well, even when they've been terrible. No Hutchinson; Lions are historically not very good on Thanksgiving.. We'll know pretty early on what kind of game we're getting. I just hope Caleb can continue to play well against elite competition. 

[adam]

The Lions defense is very similar to GBs in terms of production, so I would expect similar production out of Williams compared to the last two games. Also, these stats don't take into account the loss of Hutchinson, who still leads the team in sacks at 7.5. That is the same amount as the next 3 guys combined. Kirby Joseph is the guy to avoid in the secondary. He is who we wanted Eddie Jackson to be.

On offense, their passing game is lopsided. St. Brown has 71 receptions, the next highest is Williams with 29, then LaPorta at 28. Gibbs and Monty are right behind with 26 and 24 receptions. So St. Brown has 33% of Goff's completions and the 2 RBs account for 22%. So 55% of the passing game goes to St. Brown or to an RB.

Their rushing game is off the charts, Gibbs has 886 and Month has 632, and both have over 10 rushing TDs. With how bad the Bears run defense has been, they are going to have to commit an extra guy to stopping the run while shading to St. Brown's side to have a chance. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

23 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I lean towards a Lions blowout, but I honestly wouldn't be all that surprised if the Bears won this game, either. They almost always play the Lions well, even when they've been terrible. No Hutchinson; Lions are historically not very good on Thanksgiving.. We'll know pretty early on what kind of game we're getting. I just hope Caleb can continue to play well against elite competition. 

I want a win pretty bad here. Would be great to see Caleb just ball out on thanksgiving 

[adam]

9 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I want a win pretty bad here. Would be great to see Caleb just ball out on thanksgiving 

I would love a win, but I have almost zero hope left. Detroit is playing lights out, and it seems like there are only 3-4 teams that have a chance to beat them (BUF, PHI, BAL, and KC). Their only loss is a 4-pt loss to TB in Week 2, so they have a 9-game win streak going right now, and in their last 2 games, they have combined for 76 pts to 12 against. 

It would seem like the only way the Bears surprise them is because it is a short week and they are looking ahead to GB next Thursday.

[Stinger226]

The Lions are beat up right now that could affect the game. as of today St Brown, DM, Taylor Decker, D j Reader, and Carlton Davis arent practicing. With Caleb on the rise, we should be able to stay within the 10 1/2 point spread. Im going to bet that anyways.

[adam]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The Lions are beat up right now that could affect the game. as of today St Brown, DM, Taylor Decker, D j Reader, and Carlton Davis arent practicing. With Caleb on the rise, we should be able to stay within the 10 1/2 point spread. Im going to bet that anyways.

St. Brown and Decker are huge. St. Brown gets a 1/3 of the targets from Goff and Decker compared to backup is a huge downgrade. If Caleb and the offense keep it up tempo, this could be a high scoring affair. 

[Stinger226]

I seen someone talking about our OL and they said Shelton is the 10th ranked C on PFF and our 2 OTs are the only team pair ranked in the top 29 OTs. Anyone have a PFF sub?

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I seen someone talking about our OL and they said Shelton is the 10th ranked C on PFF and our 2 OTs are the only team pair ranked in the top 29 OTs. Anyone have a PFF sub?

For overall OFF grade for OTs, Jones is 18th, Wright is 21st. They are not the only pair in the top 30, PHI has #1 Mailata and #8 Johnson, LAC has Slater #3 and Alt #15, DET has #4 Sewell and #22 Decker, MIN has #7 O'Neill and #12 Darrisaw, CAR has #26 and #27, and HOU has #20 and #30. So 7 teams with 2x OTs in the top 30. DEN has #13 and #31. 

For Shelton, he is 16th OVR, 9th Pass Block Grade, 22nd Run Block Grade. He has had 6x elite level pass blocking games and 2 bottom of the barrel games. Kind of funny, but he has played a Pro Bowl level since Week 5. 

For Guards, Pryor has the 5th best Pass Block Grade for Guards and Jenkins is 8th. Jenkins is 15th Overall and Pryor is 34th. Funny note, the #1 rated Guard is James Daniels and Lucas Patrick is 21st. 

As a team, the Bears are 8th best pass blocking team now and 12th best run blocking team, according to PFF grades. The Bears have the 17th best team OVR PFF Grade, Defense is 5th, Offense is 26th.

[adam]

Geno Smith passed for 395 yards against DET in Week 4, Stafford passed for 317 yards in Week 1. Those are the only two 300-yd games against DET this season. 

However, since their Week 5 bye, the highest passing yardage was Love in Week 9 with 273. No QB has thrown for more than 1 TD against DET this season. They have had an INT in every game this season except for Week 12 (last week), so 10 straight weeks before last week. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, adam said:

As a team, the Bears are 8th best pass blocking team now and 12th best run blocking team, according to PFF grades. The Bears have the 17th best team OVR PFF Grade, Defense is 5th, Offense is 26th.

Now look at the DVOA for the Bears D.  I believe they are around 19. Watch Eberflus fire his DC for that to try save his job.

Thinking about it now, Washington was supposed to be a d line guru.  Have we seen any improvements along the dline?  Sweat, Dexter, Pickens, Booker, not one has elevated.  Billings was rock solid and sorely missed. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Geno Smith passed for 395 yards against DET in Week 4, Stafford passed for 317 yards in Week 1. Those are the only two 300-yd games against DET this season. 

However, since their Week 5 bye, the highest passing yardage was Love in Week 9 with 273. No QB has thrown for more than 1 TD against DET this season. They have had an INT in every game this season except for Week 12 (last week), so 10 straight weeks before last week. 

So the OL is starting to get some consistant play. Appearance wise, the last 2 games have looked better. Every year is different but we matched up well last yr with them. Plus I heard they have a lousy record on Thursdays games, I think they have lost there last 7 games. 

[adam]

8 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Now look at the DVOA for the Bears D.  I believe they are around 19. Watch Eberflus fire his DC for that to try save his job.

Thinking about it now, Washington was supposed to be a d line guru.  Have we seen any improvements along the dline?  Sweat, Dexter, Pickens, Booker, not one has elevated.  Billings was rock solid and sorely missed. 

Yeah, they were top 5 early on but I think that was also due to the level of competition. So there was some fool's gold in the 4-2 record. The last 5 games have solidified that even with the loss of Billings and Brisker. 

[adam]

This game also comes down to roster building. DET is without their best defensive player, Hutchinson, who impacted basically every play. They also lost Barnes and Anzalone, two of their top LBs. The Bears are down Billings and Brisker. If the 2023 Bears team competed against DET and should've been 2-0, there is no reason why this 2024 team shouldn't be able to go toe to toe with this roster.

[adam]

Hmmm, ok. Decker out, huge. Monty and St. Brown questionable on a short week. Why would they chance further injury? If they don't play, the Bears should be favored. No Hutchison, Decker, Monty, and St. Brown? Those are 4 of their top 10 players. 

[Stinger226]

54 minutes ago, adam said:

Hmmm, ok. Decker out, huge. Monty and St. Brown questionable on a short week. Why would they chance further injury? If they don't play, the Bears should be favored. No Hutchison, Decker, Monty, and St. Brown? Those are 4 of their top 10 players. 

We need a little help anywhere we can get it. Players injured on a short week usually means they will at least carry this into this game which means they wont be up to par. At best there out. The Bears are physical so that will help keep them off the field.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Hmmm, ok. Decker out, huge. Monty and St. Brown questionable on a short week. Why would they chance further injury? If they don't play, the Bears should be favored. No Hutchison, Decker, Monty, and St. Brown? Those are 4 of their top 10 players. 

The Bears are 10 point dogs - they have lost 5 in a row and are playing the hottest team in football. Under zero scenario should they be favored or near favored. 
 

Do I hope they win - hell yes I do, but the Lions are the best team in football right now. 

[Stinger226]

Need some advice, should I eat early in case I get sick to my stomach while watching the game? Or eat after and depress my anxiety with over eating? 

With everybody saying we are getting blown out, does that mean we win the game? Kind of reverse Karma

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Football is a game of inches or seconds.  The Bears are close but just a little short.  Caleb throws a second earlier to DJ and they could've got some momentum to match punches.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Lions are really freaking good. Bears are also such a bad match up for them with their porous run defense. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I’ll say it right now - Bears are a good coach and draft away but things can go sideways. 
 

I just know one thing - I don’t need a hard ass head coach but I need someone who is a natural born leader. Vrabel or Belicheck on defense is fine as those head coaches go…even the Lions DC is intriguing. 
 

I don’t know enough about Lions OC…Campbell has so much swag I’d be worried their OC is more Waldron than Campbell. 
 

If Miami ditched their head coach he could be an interesting option. Total nerd but he is a great offensive mind….goes against my leader thing but he must be - his players love him. 
 

Vrabel is pretty much top on my list. 

[AZ54]

... and that failed 4th down attempt is Eberflus showing he knows his career is done in Chicago.  Nothing to do now but wait for the official announcement.