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Playoff Chances (Last Gasp)


adam

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The Bears currently have a <1% chance to make the playoffs, but there is a chance. First, they would have to take care of business, winning no less than 5 of their last 6, preferably all 6, which would be more than they have won in their first 11 games. 

Scenario 1 - Win the last 6 games and

1. have WAS (7-5, 5-3 Conf) lose to at least 3 of PHI, ATL, NO, DAL or TEN, and finish no better than 9-8, and
2. have ARZ (6-5, 3-4 Conf) lose to at least 3 of MIN, SEA, LAR, and SF, and finish no better than 9-8.
3. by winning all 6, CHI would have the H2H tiebreaker against SEA, SF, and LAR. 

* - Both the WAS and ARZ steps are very possible, winning 6 straight after losing 5 straight is not. 

Scenario 2 - Win 5 out of 6 (w/ wins against SF and SEA) and

1. have WAS (7-5, 5-3 Conf) lose to at least 4 of PHI, ATL, NO, DAL or TEN, and finish no better than 8-9. 1-4 in last 5.
2. have ARZ (6-5, 3-4 Conf) lose to at least 4 of MIN, SEA, LAR, SF, CAR, or NE, and finish no better than 8-9. 2-4 in last 6.
3. have TB (5-6, 5-3 Conf) lose to at least 3 of LAC, DAL, NO, CARx2, or LVR, and finish no better than 8-9. 3-3 in last 6.
4. by winning 5 out of the last 6 and beating SEA and SF, CHI would have the H2H tiebreaker against SEA, SF, and LAR.

This week, we need TEN to beat WAS, MIN to beat ARZ, and CAR to beat TB (which would hurt Bears 2nd round pick slot). 

We could be on to Scenario 2 by Thursday night.

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48 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

We are not getting to the playoffs but if we go 3-3, It would look much  better at our chances next year.

Raise your hand- how many people here thought we were making the playoffs this year?Open photo

I thought we had a chance, I really thought 9-11 wins was possible based on the schedule. 

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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

We are not getting to the playoffs but if we go 3-3, It would look much  better at our chances next year.

Raise your hand- how many people here thought we were making the playoffs this year?Open photo

I've predicted 10 wins each of the last two years, lol. 

Although, in fairness to myself, the Bears lost 3 games in historic fashion last year that would have given them 10, and this year, there's been at least 2. Having Matt Eberflus as your head coach is worth at least 3 extra losses a season.

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1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I've predicted 10 wins each of the last two years, lol. 

Although, in fairness to myself, the Bears lost 3 games in historic fashion last year that would have given them 10, and this year, there's been at least 2. Having Matt Eberflus as your head coach is worth at least 3 extra losses a season.

I seen a stat where those 6 freak games  odds  to happen to one team in 2 yrs are 63 million to one . 

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14 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I thought 8 or 9 wins.  I'm also on record saying Justin and another bounty of picks would have netted is 10+.  I'm still happy about the Caleb route, because he can take us somewhere Justin never would.

I think I got caught up with the expectations of us being good when we were not ready yet for prime time. BUT we got our quarterback and the only thing that matters this year is his development. The team rebuild is not done yet I I pretended we could overcome our lack of quality on the OL and DL. Injuries have saddled our chance at a winning record yet it took miracle finishes by 3 good teams to give us a losing record. Our record states we're bad but does that mean we are close to being very good? 

Can we win today playing the best team in football, the answer is maybe. We get a few TOs, Caleb balls out and we get a miracle win. That's what Im running with but not betting on it.

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16 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I've predicted 10 wins each of the last two years, lol. 

Although, in fairness to myself, the Bears lost 3 games in historic fashion last year that would have given them 10, and this year, there's been at least 2. Having Matt Eberflus as your head coach is worth at least 3 extra losses a season.

I would say we are already at 3 this year, that is why it feels so bad already. Hail Mary in WAS, GB blocked FG two weeks ago, then MIN OT game last week.

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