3x OC Options for HC

[adam]

I know Vrabel is still in the discussion, but it seems like these 3 guys would be the leading candidates as Offensive Options at HC:

1. Ben Johnson - DET is 3rd in EPA/Play, 1st in TDs, 2nd in YPG, best OLine in NFL, Goff 4th in TD Passes, 2nd in Passing Yards
2. Joe Brady - BUF is 2nd in EPA/Play, 2nd in TDs, 8th in YPG, Allen is an alien
3. Liam Coen - TB is 6th in EPA/Play, 5th in TDs, 3rd in YPG, Mayfield 3rd in TD Passes, 4th in Passing Yards

It is really hard to strip away some of the artificial things that would not carry over to the Bears, if one of these guys came over. Obviously the first thing that stands out is the DET's OLine, Ben Johnson would not have that in CHI. Brady would not have the alien in Josh Allen, but would still have Caleb. Coen is somehow doing that with Baker Mayfield, no Chris Godwin, and a rookie RB in Irving. In a way, that offense has been the most impressive given the players and team to work with. Mayfield never had a 4K passing season until last year in TB, and is about to have his 2nd one. He has 60 TD and 24 INT with TB over the past 2 seasons, but only had 27 TD and 21 INT in his last 3 previous seasons before that. 

TB is also 3rd in 3rd Down Conversions at 48.3, ahead of DET at 45.8 and BUF at 43.8.

So it would come down to which one can be a HC, unlike what you are seeing in MIA with Mike McDaniels. 
 

[Stinger226]

Of course they add to the offense but can they be a HC? We are at a point where we have to win and a first time HC probably isnt in the cards. One of them may be the next great mind in the NFL. 

The case for Grabel. He had 2 OCs that went on to become HC. Matt Lafleur and Arthur Smith.  I think he has been around football long enough to have good contacts in the league to get us a good offensive mind to run the offense. Tom Brown may well be an option for that job. He used a 4-3  and 3-4 in Tenn defense so we wouldnt have to change personel on defense. He had a high level running game that this team gravely needs. It would help Caleb a great deal. He's a Dan Campbell-Mike Tomlin type, aggressive and physical. 

[adam]

56 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Of course they add to the offense but can they be a HC? We are at a point where we have to win and a first time HC probably isnt in the cards. One of them may be the next great mind in the NFL. 

The case for Grabel. He had 2 OCs that went on to become HC. Matt Lafleur and Arthur Smith.  I think he has been around football long enough to have good contacts in the league to get us a good offensive mind to run the offense. Tom Brown may well be an option for that job. He used a 4-3  and 3-4 in Tenn defense so we wouldnt have to change personel on defense. He had a high level running game that this team gravely needs. It would help Caleb a great deal. He's a Dan Campbell-Mike Tomlin type, aggressive and physical. 

I am not opposed to Vrabel, the trend seems to be to go to an Offensive HC after a Defensive one. Lovie to Trestman, Fox to Nagy, now Dumbass Flus to ?

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I know Vrabel is still in the discussion, but it seems like these 3 guys would be the leading candidates as Offensive Options at HC:

1. Ben Johnson - DET is 3rd in EPA/Play, 1st in TDs, 2nd in YPG, best OLine in NFL, Goff 4th in TD Passes, 2nd in Passing Yards
2. Joe Brady - BUF is 2nd in EPA/Play, 2nd in TDs, 8th in YPG, Allen is an alien
3. Liam Coen - TB is 6th in EPA/Play, 5th in TDs, 3rd in YPG, Mayfield 3rd in TD Passes, 4th in Passing Yards

It is really hard to strip away some of the artificial things that would not carry over to the Bears, if one of these guys came over. Obviously the first thing that stands out is the DET's OLine, Ben Johnson would not have that in CHI. Brady would not have the alien in Josh Allen, but would still have Caleb. Coen is somehow doing that with Baker Mayfield, no Chris Godwin, and a rookie RB in Irving. In a way, that offense has been the most impressive given the players and team to work with. Mayfield never had a 4K passing season until last year in TB, and is about to have his 2nd one. He has 60 TD and 24 INT with TB over the past 2 seasons, but only had 27 TD and 21 INT in his last 3 previous seasons before that. 

TB is also 3rd in 3rd Down Conversions at 48.3, ahead of DET at 45.8 and BUF at 43.8.

So it would come down to which one can be a HC, unlike what you are seeing in MIA with Mike McDaniels. 
 

Of the 3 I prefer Brady.  That's based solely on the results listed and then I went and listened to a few press conferences from each.  All of which means I know nothing.  I still prefer Vrabel simply because he's been there done that.  

[Bears4Ever_34]

As a general rule, I always eliminate coordinators who come from an offense with a hall of fame quarterback that they didn't develop. I call it the Adam Gase problem. I can't really think of an example of a situation like that working out. Joe Brady would scare me.

Coen also scares me just because he's only been in TB for a year, and the guy who came before him, Dave Canales, was just as successful last year with Baker. 

Ben Johnson has been really good for 3.5 years. People only like to remember the last 2 years in Detroit to try to discredit Johnson's success as someone who's only good because of a stacked roster, but that really wasn't the case before he took over in the middle of 2021. They were an awful 0-8 team before he became the primary play caller. He increased their ppg average from 16.7 to 21.2 ppg in the final 9 games before Cambell named him OC going into 2022 when they really took off and became a top 5 offense.

To me, we're kind of getting to Ben Johnson or bust at this point. I think Vrabel is probably the best overall HC candidate, but I'm just not hiring a defensive coach to oversee the development of Caleb Williams, which is, by far, the most important puzzle to all of this. A great QB is the most efficient way to sustained success in this league. Lovie won games with Cutler, but it came at the expense of his overall development because of the constant shuffle of coordinators he had to deal with.

Vrabel might get us back to respectability, but I fear he'd lead us down the same path as Lovie where they're always good enough to just miss or make the playoffs, they win with defense, and the quarterback remains inconsistent. Giving Caleb stability needs to be the primary focus of this search rather than this need for a culture changer.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

As a general rule, I always eliminate coordinators who come from an offense with a hall of fame quarterback that they didn't develop. I call it the Adam Gase problem. I can't really think of an example of a situation like that working out. Joe Brady would scare me.

Coen also scares me just because he's only been in TB for a year, and the guy who came before him, Dave Canales, was just as successful last year with Baker. 

Ben Johnson has been really good for 3.5 years. People only like to remember the last 2 years in Detroit to try to discredit Johnson's success as someone who's only good because of a stacked roster, but that really wasn't the case before he took over in the middle of 2021. They were an awful 0-8 team before he became the primary play caller. He increased their ppg average from 16.7 to 21.2 ppg in the final 9 games before Cambell named him OC going into 2022 when they really took off and became a top 5 offense.

To me, we're kind of getting to Ben Johnson or bust at this point. I think Vrabel is probably the best overall HC candidate, but I'm just not hiring a defensive coach to oversee the development of Caleb Williams, which is, by far, the most important puzzle to all of this. A great QB is the most efficient way to sustained success in this league. Lovie won games with Cutler, but it came at the expense of his overall development because of the constant shuffle of coordinators he had to deal with.

Vrabel might get us back to respectability, but I fear he'd lead us down the same path as Lovie where they're always good enough to just miss or make the playoffs, they win with defense, and the quarterback remains inconsistent. Giving Caleb stability needs to be the primary focus of this search rather than this need for a culture changer.

No matter which coach comes here, Calb is the truth, he will overcome any deficenties a new coach will bring.A good coach will focus on having a good support team to mix with Caleb. Run the ball (Vrabel), good defense ( Vrabel) ,experience(Vrabel). Thats my take. 

[BearFan PHX]

I understand the idea behind offensive continuity, but I also think it's important to get a head coach. If we could land Shanahan or someone like that, then I am all for it, and i see the advantage of an offensive mind. But Im not willing to give on the head coach aspect just to lean toward someone who is an OC.

I think Vrabel has the head coach stuff for days, but he also understands offense. Just like no one would say that Belichick doesnt understand offense, even though he comes from the defensive side of the ball as a player. At least Vrabel WAS a player!

I've heard him mic'd up coaching in training camp for the Titans and talking about run fits and angles and stuff - he clearly understands how the offense works.

Also, as a LBer, he had to understand the running game and the passing game. LBers and Safeties have that where maybe defensive linemen and corners dont as much?

Anyway, I think Vrabel is more of a well rounded guy than Eberflus or Fox were, and he understands offense enough to pick guys on the offensive staff that share a certain philosophy (whatever that is for him) and will keep continuity.

So all thing being equal, I would prefer and offensive guy, but I dont think that is more important than getting a real head coach, and Vrabel really is one.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

As a general rule, I always eliminate coordinators who come from an offense with a hall of fame quarterback that they didn't develop. I call it the Adam Gase problem. I can't really think of an example of a situation like that working out. Joe Brady would scare me.

Coen also scares me just because he's only been in TB for a year, and the guy who came before him, Dave Canales, was just as successful last year with Baker. 

Ben Johnson has been really good for 3.5 years. People only like to remember the last 2 years in Detroit to try to discredit Johnson's success as someone who's only good because of a stacked roster, but that really wasn't the case before he took over in the middle of 2021. They were an awful 0-8 team before he became the primary play caller. He increased their ppg average from 16.7 to 21.2 ppg in the final 9 games before Cambell named him OC going into 2022 when they really took off and became a top 5 offense.

To me, we're kind of getting to Ben Johnson or bust at this point. I think Vrabel is probably the best overall HC candidate, but I'm just not hiring a defensive coach to oversee the development of Caleb Williams, which is, by far, the most important puzzle to all of this. A great QB is the most efficient way to sustained success in this league. Lovie won games with Cutler, but it came at the expense of his overall development because of the constant shuffle of coordinators he had to deal with.

Vrabel might get us back to respectability, but I fear he'd lead us down the same path as Lovie where they're always good enough to just miss or make the playoffs, they win with defense, and the quarterback remains inconsistent. Giving Caleb stability needs to be the primary focus of this search rather than this need for a culture changer.

I agree with you - my short list is Vrabel or Johnson - I lean to Vrabel but wouldn't complain with either.  

[Mongo3451]

Why do we say that a defensive or special teams head coach isn't as good of a fit for developing Caleb?  Harbaugh developed Lamar.  McDermott developed Allen.  What was Andy Reid?  What was Belichick? 

The best thing we can do is hire a HC that can lead.  A HC that has great coordinators in their pocket.  I don't care if the offense plays so well that the OC leaves.  Same with DC.  Do we not think that defensive coordinators need to understand offenses in order to stop them?  If the OC leaves too, that means Caleb made it!  Next man up for OC.  Keep rolling.

If Vrabel wants to come here, hire his ass.  At minimum, Josh McDaniel is available.  Jon Gruden may take an OC job to get back in the game.  Hire the right coach, regardless of his specialty.

[BearFan PHX]

31 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I agree with you - my short list is Vrabel or Johnson - I lean to Vrabel but wouldn't complain with either.  

Im for Vrabel. If we take Johnson, I wont complain or predict failure. THe worst I can say about Johns is he isnt proven, and I have concerns, but i dont think he is desitned to be bad, so I wouldnt complain, id just be concerned.

To me Vrabel is the right choice, but it's not like hiring Johnson is a sure fail. It just takes more hope i guess.

[Bears4Ever_34]

5 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Why do we say that a defensive or special teams head coach isn't as good of a fit for developing Caleb?  Harbaugh developed Lamar.  McDermott developed Allen.  What was Andy Reid?  What was Belichick? 

Brian Daboll and Greg Roman stayed for at least 3 years before they left the organization, which gave Jackson and Allen enough time to develop. If you can get a good OC to stay for at least 3 years, you can make it work, but I think it would be reckless to assume that would happen here. Vrabel had 4 coordinators in 6 years with TEN. 2 of his OC's left for HC jobs and 2 were bad. That's the issue. You can't keep the good ones, and the bad ones get fired.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Somebody needs to talk me through why Mike Vrabel might be the leading candidate for HC.  His record at Tenneseee is sketchy at best and has been referred to as a blue collar type coach with a ‘run first’ type mentality . Why then do we want to match up a ‘can’t miss generational talent’ QB with a coach who’d rather focus on ‘10 yards and a cloud of dust’ for offense? 

I suspect someone will offer ‘hell bring in reputable staff who can develop’ Williams.  And who might that be? 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Somebody needs to talk me through why Mike Vrabel might be the leading candidate for HC.  His record at Tenneseee is sketchy at best and has been referred to as a blue collar type coach with a ‘run first’ type mentality . Why then do we want to match up a ‘can’t miss generational talent’ QB with a coach who’d rather focus on ‘10 yards and a cloud of dust’ for offense? 

I suspect someone will offer ‘hell bring in reputable staff who can develop’ Williams.  And who might that be? 

Ben Johnson's amazing offense in Detroit is run first too. He throws off of play action and the defense is gutted because LBers have to come up and respect the run with their offensive line.

Also, i dont think Vrabel is stuck in the past any more than tough guy Dan Campbell is? Vrabel might bring in a guy like Josh McDaniels. He understands modern offense, and was kind of like Johnson is now, a well touted OC under a strong head coach (Belichick) who went on to fail as head coach twice. Youd surely get experience, and unlikely hed be offered head coaching jobs right away either?

Then bring in Saleh as DC and youve got three great coaches, each on the position they do best, with three head coaches worth of experience between them.

That's the pitch anyway

[Alaskan Grizzly]

So far no one from the ‘Belichick tree’ has had much success outside of New England. Hell no one from NE has had much success without Brady as their QB, Belichick included. Add in a twice failed HC with McDaniels and you’re asking to be snake bit.  I personally wouldn’t want McD anywhere near the Bears.  
 

I suppose I could buy into the idea of Vrabel as simply a gritty guy and would bring some of that Ditka energy with him. I’d like to see an ingenious OC come with him (not named McDaniels) if that were the case.  
 

If only Bill Cowher were serious about coming back. 

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So far no one from the ‘Belichick tree’ has had much success outside of New England. Hell no one from NE has had much success without Brady as their QB, Belichick included. Add in a twice failed HC with McDaniels and you’re asking to be snake bit.  I personally wouldn’t want McD anywhere near the Bears.  
 

I suppose I could buy into the idea of Vrabel as simply a gritty guy and would bring some of that Ditka energy with him. I’d like to see an ingenious OC come with him (not named McDaniels) if that were the case.  
 

If only Bill Cowher were serious about coming back. 

Im not sold on McDaniels, but he was a good OC, but a bad HC.

To me, thats the example of why Johnson is such a risk as our pick for HC.

But yeah, Vrabel and someone else at OC? OK.

[Mongo3451]

14 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

To me, thats the example of why Johnson is such a risk as our pick for HC.

Johnson has a cool calm demeanor.  It's exactly what Georgie wants.  Rex Ryan calls him a modern day Bill Walsh.  Players needs emotional leaders more than ever, due to modern societal softness.  I'd endorse Johnson, only if he can bring in some alpha coordinators...

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Johnson gives me big time Adam Gase vibes.  
 

As it turns out he was an offensive assistant under Gase when he was HC in Miami. 

[BearFan PHX]

39 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Johnson gives me big time Adam Gase vibes.  
 

As it turns out he was an offensive assistant under Gase when he was HC in Miami. 

me too - I dont see a leader type. I watch his press conferences, his mic'd up footage. I KNOW he knows his Xs and Os - but i dont see a leader. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. It is possible if we hire him that he will do well for us - but it's a risk, it feels like 50/50 to me, and that is a bad gamble to take at this point.

[Stinger226]

47 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Johnson has a cool calm demeanor.  It's exactly what Georgie wants.  Rex Ryan calls him a modern day Bill Walsh.  Players needs emotional leaders more than ever, due to modern societal softness.  I'd endorse Johnson, only if he can bring in some alpha coordinators...

He calls a good game kept our bad defense out of place. I would have no problem with him or Vrabel. 

[BearFan PHX]

47 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'd endorse Johnson, only if he can bring in some alpha coordinators...

that would mean the HC is really the OC, and the OC and DC are really the head coaches.

I hope the Bears just do something normal and right for once. Get a HC to be HC, and an OC to be OC.

[BearFan PHX]

48 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Players needs emotional leaders more than ever, due to modern societal softness.

I agree with this 100%. To me, that means Johnson isnt the guy.