3x OC Options for HC

[adam]

I know Vrabel is still in the discussion, but it seems like these 3 guys would be the leading candidates as Offensive Options at HC:

1. Ben Johnson - DET is 3rd in EPA/Play, 1st in TDs, 2nd in YPG, best OLine in NFL, Goff 4th in TD Passes, 2nd in Passing Yards
2. Joe Brady - BUF is 2nd in EPA/Play, 2nd in TDs, 8th in YPG, Allen is an alien
3. Liam Coen - TB is 6th in EPA/Play, 5th in TDs, 3rd in YPG, Mayfield 3rd in TD Passes, 4th in Passing Yards

It is really hard to strip away some of the artificial things that would not carry over to the Bears, if one of these guys came over. Obviously the first thing that stands out is the DET's OLine, Ben Johnson would not have that in CHI. Brady would not have the alien in Josh Allen, but would still have Caleb. Coen is somehow doing that with Baker Mayfield, no Chris Godwin, and a rookie RB in Irving. In a way, that offense has been the most impressive given the players and team to work with. Mayfield never had a 4K passing season until last year in TB, and is about to have his 2nd one. He has 60 TD and 24 INT with TB over the past 2 seasons, but only had 27 TD and 21 INT in his last 3 previous seasons before that. 

TB is also 3rd in 3rd Down Conversions at 48.3, ahead of DET at 45.8 and BUF at 43.8.

So it would come down to which one can be a HC, unlike what you are seeing in MIA with Mike McDaniels. 
 

[Stinger226]

Of course they add to the offense but can they be a HC? We are at a point where we have to win and a first time HC probably isnt in the cards. One of them may be the next great mind in the NFL. 

The case for Grabel. He had 2 OCs that went on to become HC. Matt Lafleur and Arthur Smith.  I think he has been around football long enough to have good contacts in the league to get us a good offensive mind to run the offense. Tom Brown may well be an option for that job. He used a 4-3  and 3-4 in Tenn defense so we wouldnt have to change personel on defense. He had a high level running game that this team gravely needs. It would help Caleb a great deal. He's a Dan Campbell-Mike Tomlin type, aggressive and physical. 

[adam]

56 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Of course they add to the offense but can they be a HC? We are at a point where we have to win and a first time HC probably isnt in the cards. One of them may be the next great mind in the NFL. 

The case for Grabel. He had 2 OCs that went on to become HC. Matt Lafleur and Arthur Smith.  I think he has been around football long enough to have good contacts in the league to get us a good offensive mind to run the offense. Tom Brown may well be an option for that job. He used a 4-3  and 3-4 in Tenn defense so we wouldnt have to change personel on defense. He had a high level running game that this team gravely needs. It would help Caleb a great deal. He's a Dan Campbell-Mike Tomlin type, aggressive and physical. 

I am not opposed to Vrabel, the trend seems to be to go to an Offensive HC after a Defensive one. Lovie to Trestman, Fox to Nagy, now Dumbass Flus to ?

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I know Vrabel is still in the discussion, but it seems like these 3 guys would be the leading candidates as Offensive Options at HC:

1. Ben Johnson - DET is 3rd in EPA/Play, 1st in TDs, 2nd in YPG, best OLine in NFL, Goff 4th in TD Passes, 2nd in Passing Yards
2. Joe Brady - BUF is 2nd in EPA/Play, 2nd in TDs, 8th in YPG, Allen is an alien
3. Liam Coen - TB is 6th in EPA/Play, 5th in TDs, 3rd in YPG, Mayfield 3rd in TD Passes, 4th in Passing Yards

It is really hard to strip away some of the artificial things that would not carry over to the Bears, if one of these guys came over. Obviously the first thing that stands out is the DET's OLine, Ben Johnson would not have that in CHI. Brady would not have the alien in Josh Allen, but would still have Caleb. Coen is somehow doing that with Baker Mayfield, no Chris Godwin, and a rookie RB in Irving. In a way, that offense has been the most impressive given the players and team to work with. Mayfield never had a 4K passing season until last year in TB, and is about to have his 2nd one. He has 60 TD and 24 INT with TB over the past 2 seasons, but only had 27 TD and 21 INT in his last 3 previous seasons before that. 

TB is also 3rd in 3rd Down Conversions at 48.3, ahead of DET at 45.8 and BUF at 43.8.

So it would come down to which one can be a HC, unlike what you are seeing in MIA with Mike McDaniels. 
 

Of the 3 I prefer Brady.  That's based solely on the results listed and then I went and listened to a few press conferences from each.  All of which means I know nothing.  I still prefer Vrabel simply because he's been there done that.  

[Bears4Ever_34]

As a general rule, I always eliminate coordinators who come from an offense with a hall of fame quarterback that they didn't develop. I call it the Adam Gase problem. I can't really think of an example of a situation like that working out. Joe Brady would scare me.

Coen also scares me just because he's only been in TB for a year, and the guy who came before him, Dave Canales, was just as successful last year with Baker. 

Ben Johnson has been really good for 3.5 years. People only like to remember the last 2 years in Detroit to try to discredit Johnson's success as someone who's only good because of a stacked roster, but that really wasn't the case before he took over in the middle of 2021. They were an awful 0-8 team before he became the primary play caller. He increased their ppg average from 16.7 to 21.2 ppg in the final 9 games before Cambell named him OC going into 2022 when they really took off and became a top 5 offense.

To me, we're kind of getting to Ben Johnson or bust at this point. I think Vrabel is probably the best overall HC candidate, but I'm just not hiring a defensive coach to oversee the development of Caleb Williams, which is, by far, the most important puzzle to all of this. A great QB is the most efficient way to sustained success in this league. Lovie won games with Cutler, but it came at the expense of his overall development because of the constant shuffle of coordinators he had to deal with.

Vrabel might get us back to respectability, but I fear he'd lead us down the same path as Lovie where they're always good enough to just miss or make the playoffs, they win with defense, and the quarterback remains inconsistent. Giving Caleb stability needs to be the primary focus of this search rather than this need for a culture changer.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

As a general rule, I always eliminate coordinators who come from an offense with a hall of fame quarterback that they didn't develop. I call it the Adam Gase problem. I can't really think of an example of a situation like that working out. Joe Brady would scare me.

Coen also scares me just because he's only been in TB for a year, and the guy who came before him, Dave Canales, was just as successful last year with Baker. 

Ben Johnson has been really good for 3.5 years. People only like to remember the last 2 years in Detroit to try to discredit Johnson's success as someone who's only good because of a stacked roster, but that really wasn't the case before he took over in the middle of 2021. They were an awful 0-8 team before he became the primary play caller. He increased their ppg average from 16.7 to 21.2 ppg in the final 9 games before Cambell named him OC going into 2022 when they really took off and became a top 5 offense.

To me, we're kind of getting to Ben Johnson or bust at this point. I think Vrabel is probably the best overall HC candidate, but I'm just not hiring a defensive coach to oversee the development of Caleb Williams, which is, by far, the most important puzzle to all of this. A great QB is the most efficient way to sustained success in this league. Lovie won games with Cutler, but it came at the expense of his overall development because of the constant shuffle of coordinators he had to deal with.

Vrabel might get us back to respectability, but I fear he'd lead us down the same path as Lovie where they're always good enough to just miss or make the playoffs, they win with defense, and the quarterback remains inconsistent. Giving Caleb stability needs to be the primary focus of this search rather than this need for a culture changer.

No matter which coach comes here, Calb is the truth, he will overcome any deficenties a new coach will bring.A good coach will focus on having a good support team to mix with Caleb. Run the ball (Vrabel), good defense ( Vrabel) ,experience(Vrabel). Thats my take. 

[BearFan PHX]

I understand the idea behind offensive continuity, but I also think it's important to get a head coach. If we could land Shanahan or someone like that, then I am all for it, and i see the advantage of an offensive mind. But Im not willing to give on the head coach aspect just to lean toward someone who is an OC.

I think Vrabel has the head coach stuff for days, but he also understands offense. Just like no one would say that Belichick doesnt understand offense, even though he comes from the defensive side of the ball as a player. At least Vrabel WAS a player!

I've heard him mic'd up coaching in training camp for the Titans and talking about run fits and angles and stuff - he clearly understands how the offense works.

Also, as a LBer, he had to understand the running game and the passing game. LBers and Safeties have that where maybe defensive linemen and corners dont as much?

Anyway, I think Vrabel is more of a well rounded guy than Eberflus or Fox were, and he understands offense enough to pick guys on the offensive staff that share a certain philosophy (whatever that is for him) and will keep continuity.

So all thing being equal, I would prefer and offensive guy, but I dont think that is more important than getting a real head coach, and Vrabel really is one.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

As a general rule, I always eliminate coordinators who come from an offense with a hall of fame quarterback that they didn't develop. I call it the Adam Gase problem. I can't really think of an example of a situation like that working out. Joe Brady would scare me.

Coen also scares me just because he's only been in TB for a year, and the guy who came before him, Dave Canales, was just as successful last year with Baker. 

Ben Johnson has been really good for 3.5 years. People only like to remember the last 2 years in Detroit to try to discredit Johnson's success as someone who's only good because of a stacked roster, but that really wasn't the case before he took over in the middle of 2021. They were an awful 0-8 team before he became the primary play caller. He increased their ppg average from 16.7 to 21.2 ppg in the final 9 games before Cambell named him OC going into 2022 when they really took off and became a top 5 offense.

To me, we're kind of getting to Ben Johnson or bust at this point. I think Vrabel is probably the best overall HC candidate, but I'm just not hiring a defensive coach to oversee the development of Caleb Williams, which is, by far, the most important puzzle to all of this. A great QB is the most efficient way to sustained success in this league. Lovie won games with Cutler, but it came at the expense of his overall development because of the constant shuffle of coordinators he had to deal with.

Vrabel might get us back to respectability, but I fear he'd lead us down the same path as Lovie where they're always good enough to just miss or make the playoffs, they win with defense, and the quarterback remains inconsistent. Giving Caleb stability needs to be the primary focus of this search rather than this need for a culture changer.

I agree with you - my short list is Vrabel or Johnson - I lean to Vrabel but wouldn't complain with either.  

[Mongo3451]

Why do we say that a defensive or special teams head coach isn't as good of a fit for developing Caleb?  Harbaugh developed Lamar.  McDermott developed Allen.  What was Andy Reid?  What was Belichick? 

The best thing we can do is hire a HC that can lead.  A HC that has great coordinators in their pocket.  I don't care if the offense plays so well that the OC leaves.  Same with DC.  Do we not think that defensive coordinators need to understand offenses in order to stop them?  If the OC leaves too, that means Caleb made it!  Next man up for OC.  Keep rolling.

If Vrabel wants to come here, hire his ass.  At minimum, Josh McDaniel is available.  Jon Gruden may take an OC job to get back in the game.  Hire the right coach, regardless of his specialty.

[BearFan PHX]

31 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I agree with you - my short list is Vrabel or Johnson - I lean to Vrabel but wouldn't complain with either.  

Im for Vrabel. If we take Johnson, I wont complain or predict failure. THe worst I can say about Johns is he isnt proven, and I have concerns, but i dont think he is desitned to be bad, so I wouldnt complain, id just be concerned.

To me Vrabel is the right choice, but it's not like hiring Johnson is a sure fail. It just takes more hope i guess.

[Bears4Ever_34]

5 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Why do we say that a defensive or special teams head coach isn't as good of a fit for developing Caleb?  Harbaugh developed Lamar.  McDermott developed Allen.  What was Andy Reid?  What was Belichick? 

Brian Daboll and Greg Roman stayed for at least 3 years before they left the organization, which gave Jackson and Allen enough time to develop. If you can get a good OC to stay for at least 3 years, you can make it work, but I think it would be reckless to assume that would happen here. Vrabel had 4 coordinators in 6 years with TEN. 2 of his OC's left for HC jobs and 2 were bad. That's the issue. You can't keep the good ones, and the bad ones get fired.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Somebody needs to talk me through why Mike Vrabel might be the leading candidate for HC.  His record at Tenneseee is sketchy at best and has been referred to as a blue collar type coach with a ‘run first’ type mentality . Why then do we want to match up a ‘can’t miss generational talent’ QB with a coach who’d rather focus on ‘10 yards and a cloud of dust’ for offense? 

I suspect someone will offer ‘hell bring in reputable staff who can develop’ Williams.  And who might that be? 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Somebody needs to talk me through why Mike Vrabel might be the leading candidate for HC.  His record at Tenneseee is sketchy at best and has been referred to as a blue collar type coach with a ‘run first’ type mentality . Why then do we want to match up a ‘can’t miss generational talent’ QB with a coach who’d rather focus on ‘10 yards and a cloud of dust’ for offense? 

I suspect someone will offer ‘hell bring in reputable staff who can develop’ Williams.  And who might that be? 

Ben Johnson's amazing offense in Detroit is run first too. He throws off of play action and the defense is gutted because LBers have to come up and respect the run with their offensive line.

Also, i dont think Vrabel is stuck in the past any more than tough guy Dan Campbell is? Vrabel might bring in a guy like Josh McDaniels. He understands modern offense, and was kind of like Johnson is now, a well touted OC under a strong head coach (Belichick) who went on to fail as head coach twice. Youd surely get experience, and unlikely hed be offered head coaching jobs right away either?

Then bring in Saleh as DC and youve got three great coaches, each on the position they do best, with three head coaches worth of experience between them.

That's the pitch anyway

[Alaskan Grizzly]

So far no one from the ‘Belichick tree’ has had much success outside of New England. Hell no one from NE has had much success without Brady as their QB, Belichick included. Add in a twice failed HC with McDaniels and you’re asking to be snake bit.  I personally wouldn’t want McD anywhere near the Bears.  
 

I suppose I could buy into the idea of Vrabel as simply a gritty guy and would bring some of that Ditka energy with him. I’d like to see an ingenious OC come with him (not named McDaniels) if that were the case.  
 

If only Bill Cowher were serious about coming back. 

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So far no one from the ‘Belichick tree’ has had much success outside of New England. Hell no one from NE has had much success without Brady as their QB, Belichick included. Add in a twice failed HC with McDaniels and you’re asking to be snake bit.  I personally wouldn’t want McD anywhere near the Bears.  
 

I suppose I could buy into the idea of Vrabel as simply a gritty guy and would bring some of that Ditka energy with him. I’d like to see an ingenious OC come with him (not named McDaniels) if that were the case.  
 

If only Bill Cowher were serious about coming back. 

Im not sold on McDaniels, but he was a good OC, but a bad HC.

To me, thats the example of why Johnson is such a risk as our pick for HC.

But yeah, Vrabel and someone else at OC? OK.

[Mongo3451]

14 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

To me, thats the example of why Johnson is such a risk as our pick for HC.

Johnson has a cool calm demeanor.  It's exactly what Georgie wants.  Rex Ryan calls him a modern day Bill Walsh.  Players needs emotional leaders more than ever, due to modern societal softness.  I'd endorse Johnson, only if he can bring in some alpha coordinators...

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Johnson gives me big time Adam Gase vibes.  
 

As it turns out he was an offensive assistant under Gase when he was HC in Miami. 

[BearFan PHX]

39 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Johnson gives me big time Adam Gase vibes.  
 

As it turns out he was an offensive assistant under Gase when he was HC in Miami. 

me too - I dont see a leader type. I watch his press conferences, his mic'd up footage. I KNOW he knows his Xs and Os - but i dont see a leader. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. It is possible if we hire him that he will do well for us - but it's a risk, it feels like 50/50 to me, and that is a bad gamble to take at this point.

[Stinger226]

47 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Johnson has a cool calm demeanor.  It's exactly what Georgie wants.  Rex Ryan calls him a modern day Bill Walsh.  Players needs emotional leaders more than ever, due to modern societal softness.  I'd endorse Johnson, only if he can bring in some alpha coordinators...

He calls a good game kept our bad defense out of place. I would have no problem with him or Vrabel. 

[BearFan PHX]

47 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'd endorse Johnson, only if he can bring in some alpha coordinators...

that would mean the HC is really the OC, and the OC and DC are really the head coaches.

I hope the Bears just do something normal and right for once. Get a HC to be HC, and an OC to be OC.

[BearFan PHX]

48 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Players needs emotional leaders more than ever, due to modern societal softness.

I agree with this 100%. To me, that means Johnson isnt the guy.

[Lucky Luciano]

16 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

me too - I dont see a leader type. I watch his press conferences, his mic'd up footage. I KNOW he knows his Xs and Os - but i dont see a leader. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. It is possible if we hire him that he will do well for us - but it's a risk, it feels like 50/50 to me, and that is a bad gamble to take at this point.

ok i am going to chime in on this... if anyone thinks johnson is a primo OC this is the HC we need to hire. even if he fails as a HC he will/should turn caleb into the qb we expected when we picked him #1 inside that 3 year period he is here as a HC. this would be a qb that should play for us for 10-15 years. this is the most important aspect of who we choose right now. williams need someone to build him into a top 5 qb the right way and it appears johnson can do it.

[Stinger226]

25 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said:

ok i am going to chime in on this... if anyone thinks johnson is a primo OC this is the HC we need to hire. even if he fails as a HC he will/should turn caleb into the qb we expected when we picked him #1 inside that 3 year period he is here as a HC. this would be a qb that should play for us for 10-15 years. this is the most important aspect of who we choose right now. williams need someone to build him into a top 5 qb the right way and it appears johnson can do it.

I think we definitly need someone to work with Caleb but if Johnson fails as a HC we wont be much better than we are right now. Caleb has the talent that will shine thru whether its with the perfect OC or an average one. A good defense and running helps Caleb just as much as a perfect OC. 

[Lucky Luciano]

47 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think we definitly need someone to work with Caleb but if Johnson fails as a HC we wont be much better than we are right now. Caleb has the talent that will shine thru whether its with the perfect OC or an average one. A good defense and running helps Caleb just as much as a perfect OC. 

no on EVERY count.

1.  how often do we pick a franchise quality qb #1 overall? how often during our entire 100+ years in the nfl?

this is the brass ring. we need the best there is to form this rookie into a HOF qb if he has the talent. i really don't care what the record is during this development. in 3 years these are the KEY years to learn from the best to develop the mindset that will last a long career. if you hire a vrable it is a super unknown what we get as an OC and qb developer and for how long. why gamble the absolute most IMPORTANT player on your roster who could contribute for 15 YEARS? we have been to TWO freaking superbowls in over 50 YEARS and lost one of them due to poor qb play.

2.  johnson appears to understand the correlation between a GOOD offensive line and qb development. isn't that a prerequisite?

to believe caleb will "shine thru" with a "decent or average" OC is absurd. that is how the chicago bears have destroyed qb's or never even found one for multiple decades.

3.  another absurd statement... "A good defense and running helps Caleb just as much as a perfect OC."  we have had some pretty good defenses over the years. WHAT qb's are you talking about that this helped them as much as a perfect OC or even a competent one? where are our rings?

[BearFan PHX]

I think we all agree that Caleb's development is paramount.

I think we also all agree that our culture is trash, and that realistically, we are going to have to emotionally reclaim certain players like DJ Moore and Jaylon Johnson because they are so good, and we are highly invested in them. You can't scrap the whole roster and start from scratch, Caleb's rookie window is already 20% of the way over.

So we all see the need for both offensive competence and team leadership.

The question we are debating is how to do that. Who is best.

I think we all agree that Ben Johnson is a hell of an Offensive mind. I think we all agree that Vrabel is a tough leader who can set a tone and build a culture.

So I understand the people thinking Caleb is goal #1, so you bring in the best offensive guy. I agree.

But i think that guy should be the offensive coordinator. That's really the OCs job. And the head coach does the head coaches job.

The argument im reading is to take the best OC we can find, and make him head coach so he can be OC. But what if he lacks the HC skill of leadership and culture building?

We have all seen good OCs fail at being head coaches. And we've seen some succeed too. For sure. There is some chance, maybe over 50% even, that Johnson will be a good head coach as a leader and culture creator.

But understand this will be an uphill battle for whoever the new coach is, because our team has already tasted complacency. Like a bear that's tasted human, they have already crossed that line and found it tolerable on the other side. Some may never come back no matter what.

I think we need a HC who has all the head coach skills, and an OC who has all the OC skills. And that is putting the proper talents into the proper jobs.

I also totally understand the argument that a good OC ours will get hired as a HC somewhere in the future and so if your head coach is an offensive guy, there is continuity. But there are ways to do that without inverting your leadership structure in a typical Bears-ian way; OC for HC etc.

The counter argument is whether Vrabel understands offense, and what his role in developing Caleb would be. I think we are all overlooking that too. Vrabel knows football inside and out. He is not like Eberflus who just gives the offense over to someone. I know from watching practice film, he understands run fronts, blocking rules, hand fighting - he was a player, and a damned good one. Eberflus only got his hands on opposing linemen on a chalkboard. The highest level of competition he saw was at Toledo in the 70s.

Vrabel also was coached by Belichick. He had many years to study how a winning team behaves in the locker room. I think he would be excellent for Caleb's mental development. I bet he is one of the few guys that Caleb would actually look up to.

So whoever we hire, I want a HC at HC, not just a souped up OC. Im not even saying Johnson isnt that guy. But I am saying we dont KNOW. And I look at Vrabel sitting right there for us, afterm having passed on Harbaugh because "hes totally the guy you need, but hes kind of a crazy jerk, so lets not consider just him for this special exceptional reason" and I think to myself "if you pass on Vrabel for basically the same reason, then youre just McCaskey-ing it up"

We need a tough HC at HC, and an OC at OC.